Agenda Item 3-2 HELCOM GEAR , Copenhagen, Denmark, 16 June ICES update to GEAR7 Sebastian Valanko Professional Officer Ecosystem Advice

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1 Agenda Item 3-2 HELCOM GEAR , Copenhagen, Denmark, 16 June 2014 ICES update to GEAR7 Sebastian Valanko Professional Officer Ecosystem Advice

2 1. Review of MSFD Descriptors, EC Decision 2010/477/EU 2. STAGES (EU-funded project) trade-offs in PoMs for eutrophication and fisheries, with regard to GES in the Baltic Sea 3. WGIAB - ICES/HELCOM Working Group on Integrated Assessments of the Baltic Sea

3 ICES is providing a technician service to DGENV through the EC/ICES MoU. These reviews are part of a process that is considering potential revisions to the 2010 MSFD decision.

4 The process: EC announced dates for the ICES led reviews of MSFD descriptors 3 (commercial fish), 4 (foodweb) and 6 (seafloor integrity). The reviews = scientists to prepare documents on the challenges and outstanding questions on the MSFD D3, D4 and D6. To be discussed at open workshops open to scientists from across Europe at the ICES HQ on the following dates: D4: August 2014 D6: 2-3 September 2014 D3: 4-5 September 2014 The science teams will then bring the issues together for the Commission in October.

5 MSFD and Indicators Review of MSFD Descriptors in the EC Decision April October GES GES May Template from Milieu to ICES Template discussed with selected experts Draft report Open Workshop [13th October 2014] Final draft report

6 Keywords in the review process: Simpler Clearer Introducing minimum requirements Self-explanatory Coherent with other EU legislation Coherent with regional assessment methods Clear and minimum list of criteria/parameters per descriptor

7 The process: ICES is also involved in the review of D1 (biodiversity) and D11 (noise), but these processes will be different. D1 is being led by JRC with ICES involvement D11 is being led by ICES but using on the European TG NOISE group.

8 a STAGES project - 20 th May - 31 st July, STAGES (EU funded project) Trade-offs in GES between different PoMs: an exploratory pilot project looking at eutrophication and fisheries in the Baltic Sea Commissioned by: International Council for the Explorations of the Sea (ICES) Samuli Korpinen Anna-Stiina Heiskanen Outi Setälä Laura Uusitalo Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Finland Sebastian Valanko International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Jesper H. Andersen Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Denmark

9 Definitions Trade-offs in GES between different PoMs: eutrophication and fisheries in the Baltic Sea PoMs (programmes of measures) Eutrophication Fisheries GES (Good Ecological Status) Biodiversity Driver Response BAU, 30%, 60% Impact Structure and Function Pressure State DPSIR framework Source: EEA

10 A. Spatial models: Scenario-based post-processing framework Pressures reduction: eutrophication, fisheries Response: GES (biodiversity) B. - literature review from EU projects - extraction of data from HOLAS database for modelling Workshop: expert analysis on PoM interactions Laura Uusitalo Samuli Korpinen Workshop: facilitation, invites, chairing Lise Croone Mark DC Sebastian Valanko C. Jesper Andersen Samuli Korpinen? Modelling re-run: fishery and eutrophication (200 yr) Susa Niiranen Samuli Korpinen A, B, C Presentations HELCOM GEAR Sebastian Valanko STAGES Samuli Korpinen Wojciech Wawrzynski FINAL PRODUCT July 31 st SYKE -> ICES Peer review publications + Public outreach

11 Pressure index DRAFT results A. Spatial models - scenario-based post-processing framework Pressure + GES Biodiversity status Source: Andersen, Halpern, Korpinen, Murray & Reker (in prep): Baltic Sea biodiversity status is correlated with cumulative human activities.

12 Pressure index DRAFT results A. Spatial models - scenario-based post-processing framework Pressure + GES r 2 = -0.63, p= 0.08 x Biodiversity status Source: Andersen, Halpern, Korpinen, Murray & Reker (in prep): Baltic Sea biodiversity status is correlated with cumulative human activities.

13 DRAFT results NUTRIENT + FISHING PRESSURE IMPACT (RELATIVE TO STATUS) 0% 30% 60% IMPACT ON GES:

14 DRAFT results NUTRIENT + FISHING PRESSURE IMPACT (RELATIVE TO STATUS) 0% 30% 60% IMPACT ON GES:

15 DRAFT results Pressure impact

16 Synergetic and cumulative effects? Fisheries x Eutrophication Expert analysis on PoM interactions (workshop)

17 PARTICIPANTS of STAGES WKMSTrade, 10th-11th June 2014 Workshop 1 Claus Hagebro ICES DK 2 Heike Schwermer Hamburg Uni. Germany 3 Henn Ojaveer EMI Estonia 4 Henrik Sparholt ICES DK 5 Jesper H. Andersen UA Denmark 6 Laura Uusitalo SYKE Finland 7 Linas Lozys Klaipeda University/MARSTEC Lithuania 8 Mark Dickey-Collas ICES UK, NL 9 Mia Pantzar Masters student Sweden 10 Paul Tett SAMS Scotland 11 Samuli Korpinen SYKE Finland 12 Saskia Otto Hamburg Germany 13 Sebastian Valanko ICES Finland 14 Theo Prins Deltares NL WebEx 15 Adrian Judd CEFAS UK 16 Andrew Kenny CEFAS UK 17 Jari Raitaniemi FGFRI Finland 18 Lena Bergström SLU Sweden 19 Leonie Dransfelt MI Ireland 20 Päivi Haapasaari HU Finland 21 Susa Niiranen SRC Sweden 22 Annelie Brand The Fisheries Secretariat (FISH) Sweden

18 PARTICIPANTS of STAGES WKMSTrade, 10th-11th June 2014 Workshop 1 Claus Hagebro ICES DK 2 Heike Schwermer Hamburg Uni. Germany 3 Henn Ojaveer EMI Estonia 4 Henrik Sparholt ICES DK 5 Jesper H. Andersen UA Denmark 6 Laura Uusitalo SYKE Finland 7 Linas Lozys Klaipeda University/MARSTEC Lithuania 8 Mark Dickey-Collas ICES UK, NL 9 Mia Pantzar Masters student Sweden 10 Paul Tett SAMS Scotland 11 Samuli Korpinen SYKE Finland 12 Saskia Otto Hamburg Germany 13 Sebastian Valanko ICES Finland 14 Theo Prins Deltares NL WebEx 15 Adrian Judd CEFAS UK 16 Andrew Kenny CEFAS UK 17 Jari Raitaniemi FGFRI Finland 18 Lena Bergström SLU Sweden 19 Leonie Dransfelt MI Ireland 20 Päivi Haapasaari HU Finland 21 Susa Niiranen SRC Sweden 22 Annelie Brand The Fisheries Secretariat (FISH) Sweden

19 Results Synergetic and cumulative effects Fisheries x Eutrophication PoMs: BAU, 30%, 60% = 9 scenarios GES?

20 Results

21 Results

22 A. Spatial models: Scenario-based post-processing framework Pressures reduction: eutrophication, fisheries Response: GES (biodiversity) B. - literature review from EU projects - extraction of data from HOLAS database for modelling Workshop: expert analysis on PoM interactions Laura Uusitalo Samuli Korpinen Workshop: facilitation, invites, chairing Lise Croone Mark DC Sebastian Valanko C. Jesper Andersen Samuli Korpinen? Modelling re-run: fishery and eutrophication (200 yr) Susa Niiranen Samuli Korpinen A, B, C Presentations HELCOM GEAR Sebastian Valanko STAGES Samuli Korpinen Wojciech Wawrzynski FINAL PRODUCT July 31 st SYKE -> ICES Peer review publications + Public outreach

23 WGIAB: ICES/HELCOM Working Group on Integrated Assessments of the Baltic Sea Chairs: Christian Möllmann, Laura Uusitalo, Lena Bergström Laura Uusitalo Head of Unit (State of the Baltic Sea) Senior Research Scientist, Adjunct Professor Finnish Environment Institute SYKE / Marine Research Centre Mechelininkatu 34a, P.O. Box 140, FI HELSINKI, Finland skype name: laura.a.uusitalo

24 WGIAB: ICES/HELCOM Working Group on Integrated Assessments of the Baltic Sea Chairs: Christian Möllmann, Laura Uusitalo, Lena Bergström Laura Uusitalo Head of Unit (State of the Baltic Sea) Senior Research Scientist, Adjunct Professor Finnish Environment Institute SYKE / Marine Research Centre Mechelininkatu 34a, P.O. Box 140, FI HELSINKI, Finland skype name: laura.a.uusitalo WKRISCO ICES/HELCOM/OSPAR scoping workshop on 19th and 20th November 2014 in Copenhagen

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