A PERSPECTIVE ON TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST OF EUROPE

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1 1 A PERSPECTIVE ON TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST OF EUROPE Prof. Lauri Ojala Oslo, February 28, 2013

2 2 THIS PRESENTATION ON TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE WILL BRING YOU A global scale on infrastructure spending; Then some European ones for reference; Followed by a look at Northern European ones; With a look at our recent delphi findings; and A few thoughts in a Trade Logistics perspective; Rounded up by some conclusions.

3 THE WORLD IS NOT YET READY 3 FRESH MCKINSEY ESTIMATE: $ 60+ T NEEDED IN INFRASTRUCTURE TILL 2030 Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global $ 0.7 trillion World nominal GDP in 2011 $ 70 trillion Transport $ 24 trn ; of which 70 % on Roads

4 4 SOME EUROPEAN FIGURES FOR REFERENCE

5 INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN 20 EEA MEMBER COUNTRIES 5 Source: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Switzerland and the UK.

6 ROAD NETWORK DEVELOPMENT BY BTO 2030 REPORT 6

7 RAIL NETWORK DEVELOPMENT BY BTO 2030 REPORT 7

8 EUR Million ABSORPTION CAPACITY AN ISSUE IN EU TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING AS EVIDENCED BY THE REVIEW OF 2007 MULTI-ANNUAL PROGRAMME OF TEN-T 8 Source: EC MAP PROJECT PORTFOLIO REVIEW, 21 February, 2013; events/events/2013_project_management_workshop.htm

9 9 A LOOK AT NORTHERN EUROPEAN AND NORDIC COUNTRIES

10 10 TRANSPORT INFRASTUCTURE HIGH ON THE AGENDA ALSO IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION (BSR) Transportation infrastructure and green growth are two topics of specific importance for the Baltic Sea Region and its future competitiveness. In both areas, regional collaboration, given the nature of the Region, is critical for making full use of existing opportunities. Baltic Development Forum s State of the Region Report 2012

11 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING 11 IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION

12 12 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING BY CATEGORY IN 2009 IN THE BSR

13 13 SOME RECENT DELPHI FINDINGS OF OURS

14 14 SELECTED FINDINGS FROM OUR BSR DELPHI EXERCISE IN AUTUMN 2012 N = 56 Source: Ojala, Kersten & Lorentz (2013, forthcoming in WJEB): Transport and logistics developments in the Baltic Sea region till 2025

15 INFRASTRUCTURE UNDERCAPACITY IN MOST MODES IN OUR BSR DELPHI EXERCISE IN AUTUMN 2012 Significant undercapacity Some undercapacity Neither under- /overcapacity Some overcapacity Significant overcapacity 15 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 ROAD TRANSPORT RAIL TRANSPORT AIRPORT and AIR TRANSPORT TELECOMMUNICATIONS 2,72 2,76 2,96 3,06 MARITIME and PORT 3,38 Source: Ojala, Kersten & Lorentz (2013, forthcoming in WJEB): Transport and logistics developments in the Baltic Sea region till 2025

16 INTERESTINGLY, OVERCAPACITY 16 IN MOST MODES IN A SIMILAR STUDY IN ASEAN COUNTRIES IN DECEMBER 2012 Source: Banomyong, R (2012); in cooperation with Ojala, Kersten & Lorentz

17 17 A FEW THOUGHTS IN A TRADE LOGISTICS PERSPECTIVE

18 Background on the LPI 18 First report & data launched on Nov. 5, LPI 2010 on Jan. 15, 2010 Worldwide media coverage LPI 2012 out May 16, 2012

19 Overall LPI 2012 scores

20 INCOME LEVEL ALONE DOES NOT EXPLAIN ECONOMIES TRADE LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE The boundaries for the four categories indicative only Countries by LPI 2012 overall score and GDP/capita Logistics Friendly Consistent Performers Partial Performers Logistics Unfriendly

21 LPI IS A SURVEY COUNTRY RANK IS A CONFIDENTIAL INTERVAL, NOT A FIXED POINT! LPI Rank Lower Bound Upper Bound Selected LPI 2012 ranks with Confidential Intervals (CI) 21

22 ALL MAJOR NORDICS IN TOP 15 % IN LPI ; DIFFERENCES IN SCORES ARE SMALL 22 Overall LPI score Infrastructure score

23 Very high 5) OPINIONS OF FINNISH COMPANIES 23 MORE CRITICAL THAN THE INTERNATIONAL ONES IN THE LPI 2012 High 4) Neither high nor low 3) Low 2) All industries LS 2012 All industries LS 2010 Finland in LPI index Very low 1) Customs Tracking & tracing Infrastructure Logistics competence Timeliness International shipments LPI = Logistics Performance Index, LS = National Logistics Surveys in Finland 2010 & 2012; N = 2,500+

24 KEY FINDINGS: 24 Transport infrastructure is still high on political agenda 60 to 70 % of all transport infrastructure investments to roads, but rail s share is increasing especially in the Nordic countries Few on-going major infrastructure projects in the Nordics; the largest planned ones include Fehmarn Belt, Nordic Triangle Potentially large projects in the Arctic, with a lot of uncertainty More activity envisaged in New EU Member States & Russia In high income countries, keeping existing infrastructure in shape often more important than completely new investment Good infrastructure is a necessary but not a sufficient - condition for competitiveness, economic activity and mobility Competitiveness in Trade Logistics depends increasingly less on infrastructure, and more on how things work

25 25 THANK YOU, GÖRAN!

41 T Korea, Rep. 52.3. 42 T Netherlands 51.4. 43 T Japan 51.1. 44 E Bulgaria 51.1. 45 T Argentina 50.8. 46 T Czech Republic 50.4. 47 T Greece 50.

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