East coast gas market a business perspective NSW gas supply must be facilitated. Gas Masterclass April 2014 AGL External
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1 East coast gas market a business perspective NSW gas supply must be facilitated Gas Masterclass April 2014 AGL External
2 2 East coast gas market due to face significant changes» Presentation Title» February 2008» AGL Internal
3 East coast gas market 3 - There will soon be a significant increase in gas demand on the east coast with development of LNG export facilities in Qld: - Total domestic gas demand is currently approx 700PJ/a - Total annual demand of the 3 LNG terminals (6 trains) in Gladstone (expected to be complete in around 3 years) approx 1440PJ/a (around 240PJ/a each). => this represents a three-fold increase in total demand and a 2.4 times increase in Winter peak demand
4 Current demand Demand is largely industrial with some power generation - Residential is relatively small 4
5 Enter LNG exporting facilities... 5 East Coast Gas Demand (PJ/a) 2,500 2,000 1,500 QLD LNG TAS QLD NSW SA VIC 3x increase in aggregate demand over a three-year window 1,468 2,100 1,
6 Reserves... 6 Proven & Probable Reserves (PJ) 14,000 Export focus Domestic focus 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - QGC Origin APLNG Arrow Energy Santos GLNG Other Santos BHP Exxon Mobil AGL Origin
7 7 The most dramatic impact of any gas supply shortage will be felt in NSW» Presentation Title» February 2008» AGL Internal
8 Current NSW gas market 8 - Heavily dependent on gas imports out of South Australia and Victoria (see graph on page 9) - Long term contracts will soon expire leading to demand being significantly greater than supply (see graph on page 10) - Existing contracts out of South Australia are unlikely to be rolled over given that most of this gas is committed to LNG export facilities - Victoria does not provide a viable substitute source of gas in the event that SA supply is removed (see graph on page 11)
9 Regional gas production vs. regional gas consumption Gas Quantity (PJ/a) Aggregate Demand (PJ/a) 2012 Aggregate Production (PJ/a) % % % 50 - VIC QLD SA NSW 4% Source: EnergyQuest, AGL Energy Ltd
10 NSW contracted supply vs demand 10 NSW Gas Supply (PJ) NSW Supply Contracts NSW Aggregate Demand Tallawarra CCGT Plant commissioned Smithfield
11 Existing pipelines cannot supply full NSW market out of Victoria (if MSP is removed) TJ/d Eastern Gas Pipeline NSW- VIC Interconnector Capacity EGP +I'con Moomba Sydney Pipeline Total 11 Implies EGP expansion from 294 TJ/d to at least 475 TJ/d Data Source: National Gas Market Bulletin Board
12 12 AGL modelling has taken a different approach to most: We have used daily rather than annualised supply and demand data which delivers much more powerful results» Presentation Title» February 2008» AGL Internal
13 13 Practical implications of temporary gas supply shortage» Presentation Title» February 2008» AGL Internal
14 Businesses will be most affected 14 Gas-intensive industrial users will have 3 options, if their gas supply contracts expire over 2016/17: - Cease trading, - Pay much higher prices, or - Reduce production. However, irrespective of binding contracts, large industrial businesses still face potential curtailment if NSW Govt needs to exercise emergency powers.» AGL Internal
15 Proportion of manufacturing jobs and gas consuming sites by location in NSW 15 Manufacturing Jobs (% of total) 20% Large Gas Consumers (Number of Sites) 16 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Number of Large Gas Consuming Sites (RHS) Manufacturing Jobs as % of total (LHS) Smithfield East Hills Auburn Toongabbie Menai Campbelltown Lakemba Londonderry Heffron Blacktown Riverstone Wyong Macquarie Fields Maroubra Fairfield Hornsby Lane Cove Cronulla Marrickville Miranda Penrith Bankstown Gosford Lake Macquarie Mount Druitt Port Stephens Manly Castle Hill Oatley The Entrance Wakehurst Orange Cessnock Camden Monaro Murrumbidgee Rockdale Wagga Wagga Bathurst Pittwater Lismore Coffs Harbour Granville Tamworth Wollongong Baulkham Hills Ballina Wollondilly Drummoyne Burrinjuck Hawkesbury Maitland Parramatta Clarence Dubbo Albury Goulburn Kogarah Ryde Tweed Kiama Terrigal South Coast Myall Lakes Bega Upper Hunter Swansea Charlestown Keira Pt Macquarie Strathfield Mulgoa Ntn Tablelands Cabramatta Murray-Darling Canterbury Oxley Willoughby Shellharbour Newcastle Davidson Balmain Liverpool Ku-ring-gai Barwon Epping Heathcote Blue Mountains Wallsend Coogee North Shore Sydney Vaucluse
16 16 What does AGL s modelling show?» Presentation Title» February 2008» AGL Internal
17 Aggregate gas load forecast for the east coast Aggregate Gas Demand (TJ/d) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Residential & SME Commercial & Industrial Power Generation LNG Train6 LNG Train5 LNG Train4 LNG Train3 LNG Train2 LNG Train1 4,000 3,000 Residential Commercial & Industrial Power Generation 2,000 1,
18 Base case for : current market conditions 18 Aggregate Demand (TJ/d) 7, , ,000.0 The f irst substantive gas supply shortages occur in April 2016 (export volume shortages at the LNG terminals). The domestic market experiences shortages from May 2016 (in NSW and in the ACT). 4, , ,000.0 Unserved Load Aggregate System Load Served 1,
19 Profound impact on LNG export terminals 19 Aggregate LNG Load (TJ/d) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Unserved Load LNG Load Served
20 Base case scenario: devastating impacts in NSW up to 118 days of gas shortages 20 Aggregate Demand (TJ/d) Unserved Load NSW+ACT System Load Served
21 Expand the EGP and Culcairn interconnect 21 Aggregate Demand (TJ/d) Unserved Load NSW+ACT System Load Served
22 Add Newcastle Gas Storage 22 Aggregate Demand (TJ/d) Unserved Load NSW+ACT System Load Served
23 Add new sources of gas supply into NSW 23 Aggregate Demand (TJ/d) Unserved Load NSW System Load Served
24 24 What needs to be done to avert this crisis?» Presentation Title» February 2008» AGL Internal
25 Response options 25» There are adequate gas reserves (in the form of CSG) in the ground in NSW» Therefore there are three possible options: Divert supply domestic reservation policy would be ineffective Restrict demand National Benefits Test for future LNG export developments may be worth considering Expand supply within NSW within framework of community engagement and environmental protection most logical solution Above all, it has become vital that action is prompt.
26 26 What needs to be done to avoid this crisis? East coast gas market a business perspective» Presentation Title» February 2008» AGL Internal NSW gas supply must be facilitated Gas Masterclass April 2014 AGL External
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