How To Develop A Weather Information System

Transcription

1 Impact of Weather How to Assist Pilots and Controllers in the Decision Making Process Thomas Hauf, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Leibniz University Hannover with some slides from Thomas Gerz / DLR Oberpfaffenhofen Jim Evans / MIT FLYSAFE Project Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

2 facts/estimates Safety 13% total hull losses between 1995 and 2004, primarily by weather (Boeing 2005) 33% of all accidents weather related (NTSB ) efficiency/ punctuality Weather largest contributor to delays (FLYSAFE D2.1-1, 2006) weather is cause for 40-50% of all delays at European airports (EUROCONTROL 2007) PA, FT, AS, FL, RM, LK Projekt Wetter & Fliegen, 2

3 US Air Carrier Accidents Causes of International Air Carrier Fatal Accidents Non weather 23 Snow 3 Fog 2 Thunderstorm 3 Poor weather 1 Rain - 1 Weather is a major factor impacting safety and efficiency of aviation JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

4 One illustrative example on the key subject Thunderstorms approaching Memphis Intl. Airport Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

5 What is needed to avoid the resulting situation with the obvious substantial delays, returning flights and increased risk? 1. Information about the current and the future weather development, eg CB development. 2. Information about the current and future traffic situation 3. Anticipating the future traffic and its interaction with weather 4. Proactive measures / Integrating wx information into ATM Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

6 What is needed to avoid the resulting situation? 1. Information about the current and the future CB- development => diagnosis of the storms => eg ITWS => and forecast of the development => Weather information management systems WIMS Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

7 Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

8 ITWS Situation Display JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

9 ITWS National Implementation Benefits for Initial Products User Identified Payoff Area Higher effective airport capacity during thunderstorm Anticipating arrival and departure area closure/reopening 1994 Yearly Benefit ( $M) Latest Estimate ($M) Anticipating runway impacts and shifts Better terminal area traffic pattern 5 23 Optimizing traffic flow Improved merging and sequencing using terminal winds Airline operations optimization (fuel, connections, ramp operation) Total JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

10 US experience: benefits higher than investments For FRAPORT and MUC an integrated terminal weather system is planned and in preparation German Weather Service (DWD) in charge problem: cost sharing / who benefits? who pays? cofinancing model needed JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

11 What is needed to avoid the resulting situation? 1. Information about the current and the future CB-development => diagnosis of the storms => ITWS => and forecast of the development => Weather information management systems WIMS Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

12 AP W2 Gewitter A thunderstorm represented by 3d objects Cb top volumes (conv. turbulence, lightning etc.) tools: Cb-TRAM etc. Nowcast Cb bottom volumes (heavy rain, hail, lightning etc.) tools: Rad-TRAM etc. Nowcast Cb surface area (downbursts, convergence lines,fronts, etc.) tools: high res. forecasts etc. Arnold Tafferner, Caroline Forster PA, FT, AS, FL, RM, LK Projekt Wetter & Fliegen, 12

13 yellow: onset of convection orange: rapid development red: mature thunderstorm black: 30 Min. nowcast Cloudtracker Cb-TRAM am PA, FT, AS, FL, RM, LK Projekt Wetter & Fliegen, 13

14 red: level "severe", 37 dbz black: 30 Min. nowcast Radartracker Rad-TRAM am PA, FT, AS, FL, RM, LK Projekt Wetter & Fliegen, 14

15 University of Hannover /Germany The National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) product, designed and implemented by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), provides current convective hazards and 1 hour extrapolation forecasts of thunderstorm hazard locations. The hazard field and forecasts update every 5 minutes. (1) elimination of signals lower ft (ground clutter and non-hazardous clouds) (2) combination of radar with lightning data (3) detecting storms (4) 1-hour forecast by extrapolation (shape, moving vector, speed, echo top) Institute for Meteorology and Climatology CAeM-XII Session Montreal September 2002

16 Universität Hannover WEATHER INFORMATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS WIMS diagnosis and forecast of adverse weather (note: not just data/ SESAR) hazard specific: thunderstorm icing CAT visibility wake vortices snow.. have to be developed by MET experts within the FLYSAFE project WIMS-CB, ICE, - CAT, - WV were developed application: increase safety by increasing the pilot s hazard awareness Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

17 FLY_730DAV_MPM_FLYSAFE_presentation_050415_A02 FLYSAFE overall concept Comm Satellite Weather Satellite SATCOM Traffic Weather RADAR + Lightning Secondary Surveillance Radar Terrain In-flight Collected data WIMS and Routine data National Met Service WIMS terminal area VHF (Voice + data) PIREP ATC centres National Met Service WIMS en-route Weather observation National Met Service WIMS terminal area ATN ATC centres ATC centres This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 17

18 Universität Hannover WETTERGEFAHREN aircraft Bodenstation Weather Information management systems WIMS Wirbelschleppen Clear Air Turbulence Vereisung Gewitter normale Flugwetter vorhersage Piloten METEOROLOGISCHE BEOBACHTUNGEN UND SIMULATIONEN Blitzmeßnetz Wetter Radar Satellit stationen Wettervorhersage modelle wake vortices clear air clear air turbulence turbulence in-flight icing thunderstorm Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

19 Pilot information to improve situational & system awareness Cb objects tailored for the NAV display in the cockpit 2nd Cb from CB WIMS Top = FL320 Bottom = 0 Confid = 4 growing SEV MOD pop-up window with details MOD SEV 1st Cb from CB WIMS SEV Cb as seen by WXR in red WXR Information (in xml format) is collected in a ground-based weather processor ("MET-SWIM"), tailored and up-linked upon request NM PA, FT, AS, FL, RM, LK Projekt Wetter & Fliegen, 19

20 Universität Hannover Note: Objective of FLYSAFE is to increase safety by providing a comprehensive hazard analysis to the pilot, concerning three risks: (1) traffic, (2) terrain, (3) weather The development of four WIMS within FLYSAFE represents a major step in developing WIMS for aviation In FLYSAFE they are dedicated to improve the pilot s hazard awareness WIMS products were developed for individual aircraft and a specific route (sic: 4d-trajectory) Within FLYSAFE provision of WIMS to ATM and ATC was foreseen but not developed Provision of WIMS to ATM and ATC is a necessary next step to provide same information to all Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

21 What is needed to avoid the resulting situation with substantial delays, returning flights and increased risk? 1. Information about the current and the future CB- development 2. Information about the current and future traffic situation =>ATM task, see eg SESAR 3. Anticipating the future situation with Cbs and traffic 4. Proactive measures Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

22 What is needed to avoid the resulting situation with substantial delays, returning flights and increased risk? 1. Information about the current and the future CB- development 2. Information about the current and future traffic situation 3. Anticipating the future situation with weather and traffic 4. Proactive measures Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

23 3. Anticipating the future situation with weather and traffic a. combined ATM/ATC & MET development of tools b. development of strategies and guidelines in a traffic model with implemented weather Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

24 Integrated Wx/ATM Decision Making JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

25 Multi-facility Coordination for Departures Boston Center NY Center Cleveland Center NY Washington Center JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

26 Route Availability Assessment If at various times in the next 30 minutes a departure is released on this route, will it encounter hazardous weather? Time of Flight (min): Teterboro - 20 Newark - 22 LaGuardia - 23 JFK Storm motion Distance (km) In frenzied activity of a severe weather event, it is difficult to assess route availability because one must account for both departure trajectories and storm growth, decay and movement JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

27 Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) Solves the 4-D space-time problem of when aircraft will intersect convective weather Convective Weather Forecast Statistical Route Database RAPT Flight Track Data Published Routes JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 Objective is to improve the ability to get departures out of terminals during severe weather Users: NYC Airports, NY TRACON, En route Centers, Command Center, Airlines MIT Lincoln Laboratory

28 Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT) Solves the 4-D space-time problem of when aircraft will intersect convective weather Convective Weather Forecast Statistical Route Database RAPT Flight Track Data Published Routes JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 Objective is to improve the ability to get departures out of terminals during severe weather Users: NYC Airports, NY TRACON, En route Centers, Command Center, Airlines MIT Lincoln Laboratory

29 Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Air Traffic 09/12/ UTC CIWS 09/13/ Domain 1000 UTC US ATC Chokepoints # of aircraft From FAA 2001 ACE Plan JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 Key Factors in Meeting Congested Airspace Needs 0-2 hour forecasts of both precipitation and echo tops Providing displays and operationally oriented training to key decision makers Real time forecast scoring Air traffic management Wx integration [Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT)] Operational benefits assessments MIT Lincoln Laboratory

30 Example High NAS Delay Days 13 July 05: 3,662 delays (3,718 hrs) 27 July 2005: 2,387 delays (2,420 hrs) Thunderstorm systems are permeable but create high delay owing to disruption of highly structured NAS network JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

31 National Airspace System Network Constraints Storms reduce both en route sector and, terminal capacities Major delays arise when sector and/or terminal capacity < demand Weather impact mitigation actions taken in one en route sector can significantly impact operations in other en route sectors Sector boundary Jet route Flight paths modeled as sector traversals via jet routes JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

32 3. Anticipating the future situation with weather and traffic a. combined ATM/ATC & MET development of tools b. development of strategies and guidelines in a traffic model with weather included Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

33 Universität Hannover Traffic model NAVSIM by Rokitansky Salzburg weather (objects) included by Hauf Hannover objective: develop strategies to optimize routes with respect to safety and efficiency in adverse weather situations Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

34 Universität Hannover weather object Cb Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

35 Universität Hannover weather object Cb Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

36 3. Anticipating the future situation with weather and traffic a. combined ATM/ATC & MET development of tools b. development of strategies and guidelines in a traffic model with weather included Note: uncertainty Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

37 Universität Hannover Some thoughts about uncertainty weather diagnosis and weather forecasts will always have some uncertainties those uncertainties cannot be reduced as they reflect the chaotic and unpredictable component of the weather we have to live with a certain uncertainty uncertainty decreases with decreasing forecast time consequences: 1. MET forecast are (not yet) probabilistic forecasts 2. ATM/ATC has to adopt to the uncertainty of weather 3. risk strategies have to be developed by ATM to account for the propabilistic nature of weather forecasts Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

38 Universität Hannover SUMMARY weather impacts safety and efficiency of aviation WIMS have been developed,, resp. are under development to diagnose and forecast adverse weather FLYSAFE/NGISS supports pilot FLYSAFE results should also made available to ATC/ATM implementation of WIMS alraedy in US WIMS implementation in ATM/ATC decision making process is necessary,, also in EUROPE uncertainty of weather dealt with by probabilistic forecasts require risk strategies (rather than deterministic 4d- trajectories) by ATM/ATC substantial R&D required, benefits guaranted MET community prepared to contribute active to the mitigation of adverse weather Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

39 Universität Hannover Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

40 FLY_730DAV_MPM_FLYSAFE_presentation_050415_A02 Weather related accidents Weather impact: 43.8% non-fatal, 13.3% fatal accidents (heavy a/c > 27 t) Strong mass group and flight phase dependence of weather related accidents Large a/c: Most accidents during en route (>55%) Small a/c: Most accidents during approach and landing (~27% each) Source: ICAO, IMuK This document is produced under the EC contract AIP4-CT It is the property of the FLYSAFE consortium and shall not be distributed or reproduced without the formal approval of the FLYSAFE Steering Committee Page 40

41 Weather Data Sources for ITWS Products JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

42 What is needed to avoid the resulting situation? 1. Information about the current and the future CB- development => diagnosis of the storms and and forecast of the development => is under development (DLR) or operational (NCAR) for nowcasting 30 min- 1 hr. note: needed information is not just data ( SESAR!) => Weather Information Management System WIMS = specific for : a) hazard,, b) area,, c) resolution,, d)flight level,, e) aircraft Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

43 What is needed to avoid the resulting situation? 1. Information about the current and the future CB- development => diagnosis of the storms and and forecast of the development => is under development (DLR) or operational (NCAR) for nowcasting 30 min- 1 hr. note: needed information is not just data ( SESAR!) => Weather Information Management System WIMS = specific for : a) hazard,, b) area,, c) resolution,, d)flight level,, e) aircraft Thomas Hauf Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie

44 CIWS Architecture Overview LLWAS ASOS ASR-9 TDWR Canadian NEXRAD Canadian Surface Weather Weather Radar Automated Weather Products Pilots Lightning Real-time Weather Product Generator Decision Support Tools Satellite Aircraft JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 Models (e.g., RUC) Web-based Tools Dedicated displays MIT Lincoln Laboratory

45 Projekt Wetter & Fliegen delays Flughafen: Wetter ist der größte Verursacher von Verspätungen 2/3 davon (30%) durch geringe Sicht Reiseflug: Wetter ist nach ATC-Kapazität der zweit-größte Verursacher von Verspätungen Eurocontrol March 2008: Central Flow Management Unit Network Operations Report 2007 PA, FT, AS, FL, RM, LK Projekt Wetter & Fliegen, 45

46 Projekt Wetter & Fliegen Verspätungen durch Wetter am Flughafen: Nebel / schlechte Sicht Wind Gewitter durch Wetter im Reiseflug: Gewitter mit Abstand die häufigste Ursache Kosten etwa 210 M pro Jahr (inkl. Folgek.) Eurocontrol Performance Review Commission, May 2007: Performance Review Report 2006 PA, FT, AS, FL, RM, LK Projekt Wetter & Fliegen, 46

47 RAPT Benefits Experience Examples of benefits from 2003 post event discussions June 12 at 2046 RAPT showed J80 was still available were able to push 12 more departures as a result June 14 ZNY used RAPT twice to open J75 and J48 twenty minutes earlier June 21 Three westbound routes consolidated and changed as needed according to depiction given by RAPT July 5 Thirty extra departures thru leaving J80 open July 21 all west bounds would have been closed Results of real time usage observations (ala CIWS) in 2005 Actual achievement of benefits with RAPT per convective weather impact day was relatively low (< 1/day) Problems identified from real time observations plus subsequent analysis 1. Model for pilot storm avoidance over warns 2. Model for route blockage (especially widths) needs refinement 3. En route centers (ARTCC) decision support not adequate Routes need to extend further into ARTCC airspace Area supervisors in ARTCCs need product access JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

48 NAS OPSNET Weather Delays Thousands of Delays Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Delays continued to grow despite the widespread deployment of ITWS JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory

49 Weather related accidents Weather impact: 43.8% non-fatal, 13.3% fatal accidents (heavy a/c > 27 t) Strong mass group and flight phase dependence of weather related accidents Large a/c: Most accidents during en route (>55%) Small a/c: Most accidents during approach and landing (~27% each) JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 Source: ICAO, IMuK MIT Lincoln Laboratory

50 Weather Data Sources for ITWS Products JEE/ jee 4/22/2009 MIT Lincoln Laboratory