Hybrid-War and Critical Energy Infrastructure: the Ukrianian Conflict Case-Study
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1 Hybrid-War and Critical Energy Infrastructure: the Ukrianian Conflict Case-Study
2 Study Ukraine is a polygon to investigate contemporary threats to infrastructure Study is on military/terrorist threat on energy infrastructure in context of hybrid warfare. Based on Ukrainian experience, to work out toolbox for NATO member and partner countries to build resilience in energy sector.
3 Study Considers broad Energy Secury (EnSec) and Security of Supply (SoS) aspect in contemporary military conflict only as background information. Cyber attacks on energy infrastructure as part of military action considered only as background information Other threats, such as aging infrastructure, natural and industrial accidents, geo- and electromagnetical threats are considered only as background information
4 Study This study will not help to solve current conflict in Ukraine. It s to be prepared for the next one! As by-product, we want to draw attnetion and raise awareness in NATO countries, witch could benefit Ukraine during current crisis.
5 Study Preparation Phase Phase I Theoretical study (2015) Phase II Practical Manual (2016) Implementation Phase
6 Preparation Phase
7 Preparation Phase Establishing the research initiative Constructing the ProjectPlan Contacting potential partners, target group etc.
8 Phase I Theoretical Study
9 Phase I Theoretical study Energy attacks in war-s ( ) Monitoring Ukrainian events, also other contemporary conflicts Working out Russian conduct in hybrid warfare as such Working out energy aspect in Contemporary (Russian) war doctrine
10 Historical Attacks on CEI Relevant attacks during conventional wars present Covering plans and also incidents (terrorist attacks etc.) KGB activities in NATO countries: An immensely detailed plan to destroy "oil refineries and oil and gas pipelines across Canada from British Columbia to Montreal" Open source collection & books
11 Monitoring Monoitorng all relevant events and developments in Ukraine, but also in ohter conflicts Relevant political, energy and CEI events are databased in separate columns for ease of access and reference. Empirical data points then form basis for preliminary analysis and inference. Open source collection. From this collection, some patterns have already become apparent, viz. coal related infrastructure being targeted.
12 Asymetric warfare and Russian contemporary war doctrine Analysis of the assymetric warfare as differetn from traditional war The origins and development of Russian nonlinear warfare The Russian contemporary war doctrine - Matrjoshka voina or Gerassimov Doctrine
13 Energy aspects in contemporary military conflict Main product of the Theoretical Phase Why Potential Targets How tacticks, strategy What are the consequences
14 Phase II Practical Toolbox
15 Phase II - Practical Toolbox Countrybook How would Russia use energy aspects in potential contemporary conflict with a NATO member or partner country. Best practices Work out conceptual backage or toolbox for these countries to resist these threats, to build resilience.
16 Countrybook In order to have the analysis as serious as possible and the toolbox to be as useful as possible, all will be built on real infrastructure topology, technical numbers etc. Therefore extensive material acumulation will be used to base research on that Statement on Security of Energy Supply of Ukraine 2012
17 How would Russia use Energy attacks Based on the final product of the phase one and countrybook material, a evaluation of target country or region energy infrastructure security level will be given What are the critical node s, bottel necks, etc, in target area, that make up the vulnerabilities Where and how would the energy infrastructure be attacked, with what tools with what consequences.
18 Best Practices Most countries have CIP and EnSec experiences and initiatives Intrernational organisatison have developed manuals etc. Gather these best practices and experiences from initiatives around the world
19 Work out package for these countries to resist these threats, to build resilience. For NATO member and partner countries. Based on best practices gathered from around the world. A set of measures to improve the CEIP level of a specific region or country. All countries considered to be under threat.
20 Work out toolbox for these countries to resist these threats, to build resilience. Energy experts what is the war like, what the preparation must be for. Military and Interior Security personnell threats to CEI and consequences Legislative body relations between energy sector and interior and exterior security
21 Work out toolbox for these countries to resist these threats, to build resilience. The measures must be reasnoble Investment vs. Competitiveness of economy It must prioritizise most cost-effective solutions The solutions must be in compliance with ohter initiatives (energy market, renewable initiative, Security of Supply)
22 Deliverable
23 Potential partners Think Tanks: EnSec, CIP, Hybrid warfare, Ukrainian conflict. Transmission System Operators and Interior (CIP) Security Authorities. Universities with EnSec and CIP curriculas! Intelligence (analysis) services Military authorities (universities) considering CIP, EnSec and hybrid warfare Public-Private Partnership and inter-
24 Your support: Is the study relevant, feasible, logical? Suggestions to improve the concept of the project. Would you participate - how could you contyribute? How can we fasilitate your support? Potential project partners?
25 NATO ENSEC COE Šilo str. 5a, Vilnius Lithuania Heiki Jakson Phone: office mobile Thank you! ENSECCOE UNCLASSIFIED
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