National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events

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1 National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events CREATE FY2015 (Year 11) Call for White Papers CREATE, the DHS-sponsored Center of Excellence at the University of Southern California, seeks 2-3 page White Papers (WP) on research projects in risk analysis, economics assessment, and operations research in risk management. Awards of up to $100,000 per award are expected. The anticipated period of performance is FY15: 7/1/14 to 6/30/15. White Papers must conform to the format provided below, and are due by 5pm PST October 15, 2013 to CREATE s mission is to use research, education and outreach to help the nation deter, prevent and mitigate attacks and provide resilience. CREATE s mission now includes cyber threats and greater examination of natural disasters and major accidents. CREATE seeks innovative projects with high potential for research transition of results to homeland security practitioners. Proposed research projects must address one of the four interrelated themes described below. Preferred projects will use and expand direct liaisons with homeland security agencies and user groups. A project s ultimate success will be the creation of research results and intellectual products that help the homeland security enterprise effectively and efficiently improve the nation s security. Proposers are referred to the CREATE website, for current and past projects so as to make their submissions as relevant, complementary, and integrated as possible. Some examples and suggestions are contained in the sections below. 1. Risk Analysis - Management of Risks from Intelligent, Adaptive Adversaries: extend game theory, risk analysis, terrorist preference modeling and decision analysis to account for the strategic nature of terrorist decision-making with regard to countermeasures; the integration of intelligence and data mining (including big data and social networks); explore cyber terrorism economic impact. e.g., describe clear transition paths and alignment between adaptive adversary models and specific risk models that support DHS components. 2. Risk Perception and Communication: examine the dynamics of public response, behavioral effects, societal amplification of consequences, and risk and crisis communication in reducing the transmission and consequences of fear and other indirect impacts of terrorism, both preceding and after events. e.g., examine risk message/inoculation impact for a range of TSA scenarios/threat vectors, examine behavioral economic impacts of near-miss events with/without risk messaging, conduct public and decision-maker risk perception surveys and impact of inoculation messages. e.g., improved communication of risk analysis and associated recommendations to Congress, DHS Senior Leadership and the public is increasingly important given heightened budget pressures and reliance on partnerships with the private sector and citizens to help identify, prepare for and recover from homeland security threats and hazards a white paper on this topic should review the state of the art and practice in the private sector and across the US government in communication of analysis, as it might apply to key topics for the homeland security enterprise. This review could begin by interviewing selected DHS representatives (as identified by DHS leadership) to identify the key topics that will be the focal point of the effort. The review should evaluate state of the art methods of risk communication. The results should include specific recommendations for improving the effectiveness of communications for each topic. 1

2 National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events 3. Economic Consequences and Costs: develop tools to assess consequences of terrorism, natural disasters and major accidents, especially their direct and indirect economic impacts, explore options for building resilience and business continuity, measuring non-market valuations, and the use of behavioral economics to examine the impact of how individuals respond to threats and hazards, including the role for alternative risk mitigation and resilience strategies. e.g., conduct multi-disciplinary research (economics/computer scientists) to yield computational advances in high performance computing for economic analytic applications. Develop CGE models that permit fast and scalable consequence estimates for a wider variety of scenarios. DHS is interested in CGE models that are designed to run over a variety of parameter spaces, generate the associated space of CGE output estimates and able to generate distributions of CGE outcomes, which could then be resampled for other risk modeling needs, or used to generate reduced form estimating equations. e.g., DHS makes decisions for a broad portfolio of threats and hazards that pose diverse combinations of varied consequences, including fatalities, illnesses/injuries, direct and indirect economic impacts, social impacts, psychological impacts, environmental impacts, human rights impacts, confidence in government, and more. DHS routinely estimates fatalities, illnesses/injuries and economic impacts, but has varying time frames for consequences (e.g., immediate to 72-hours post event, 1-year post event, 5-year post event). The remaining impacts are typically far more difficult to quantify, let alone systematically analyze - a primary focus of this WP should be on trading off fatalities, illnesses/injuries, and economic impacts. DHS is requesting: 1) review the state of the art and literature from a wide variety of risk related disciplines including classical risk analysis, decision sciences, enterprise risk management, strategic management, etc. 2) review practice across the US government and other international governments, and 3) summarize the review. Based on this review, make recommendations for how to appropriately trade off these consequences consistently, comparably, and transparently for the threats and hazards addressed in the homeland security mission space, and provide support for these recommendations. For example, if the value of a statistical life (VSL) is appropriate to consider for DHS, what should that VSL be, does it differ across threats or hazards (e.g., terrorist attack versus hurricane), and why. As a second example, are there documented ranges of willingness to pay to avoid values for various types of events in the DHS mission space? Ideally, the values can be used in regulatory economic analyses. A secondary focus of this white paper should be on reviewing the state of the art and literature, as well as the practice across the US government and other international governments, in estimating and considering the remaining consequences (environmental, psychological, social, etc.). Based on this review, offer recommendations for making progress in both estimating and considering these additional consequence types. 4. Operations Research in Risk Management: investigate and apply new analytical approaches to assess the benefits of risk management programs across all hazards, threats and target domains and inform policy decisions; use complex system analysis to examine the effect of feedback mechanisms, such as the adaptive adversary and deterrence effects, etc. 2

3 National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events e.g., develop tools that permit dynamic elicitation and capture of decision maker values / risk preferences and implications for integrating into Enterprise Risk Models, develop peerreviewed standards for consequence measurement scales. A panel of internal reviewers and CREATE s Federal Coordinating Committee (FCC) will evaluate all WP projects. Projects deemed suitable will be notified by October 31, 2013 and invited to submit 5-page Extended White Papers due November 30, Selected Extended White Papers will be invited to be presented to CREATE s Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) on January 23, Successful Extended White Papers will be notified by February 15 and invited to submit Full Proposals by February 28. Instructions for the Extended White Papers and the Full Proposals will be included with the invitations. Formal proposals are not requested at this time, as only selected Extended White Papers will be invited to submit Full Proposals. There will be no extensions and no exceptions to this schedule. The criteria for evaluation during all stages of the application process are: 1. Relevance to CREATE and DHS missions (25%) 2. Scientific quality of research (25%) 3. Feasibility and transition potential (25%) 4. Appropriateness of budget (15%), and 5. Qualifications of investigators (10%). CREATE will review the Full Proposals for completeness and budgetary feasibility, and recommend a funding rank order based on COE mission relevance. CREATE will forward the ranked full proposals to DHS which will evaluate the proposals based on DHS mission relevance and availability of funds and make the final decision. Calendar October 15, 2013 October 31 November 30 December 31 3-page White Papers Due at Invitations to submit 5-page Extended White Papers 5-page EWPs Due at Invitations to present EWPs to SAC January 23-24, 2014 SAC presentations February 15 February 28 Invitations to submit Full Proposals, including SOW, budget and institutional letter of commitment (subcontractors) Full Proposals Due at 3

4 CREATE White Paper Format (Example) Project Title (Risk-Based Allocation of BioSecurity Resources) 1-2 sentence summary description (e.g., This project will develop methods for using the output of threat assessment models to optimally allocate resources to counter bioterrorism.) Project Technical Description (items 1 through 13 not to exceed 3 pages, exclusive of bios) Keywords: Bioterrorism, budgeting, risk modeling, mathematical programming 1. Theme Area: Identify applicable theme 2. Principal Investigator: Your Name 3. Institution: Your Institution 4. Co-Investigators: Other contributors names and institutions. 5. Brief Description: (1-paragraph description) The purpose of this research is to improve methods for risk-based allocation of resources to counterterrorism measures. This work Representative Figure builds on efforts to develop threat assessments for such areas as biological weapons attacks by using those threat assessments as inputs to models designed to help DHS optimally allocate investments intended to counter bioterrorism. In addition, we will address the problem of allocating state grants for emergency responders. The purpose of this work is to provide sound analytical guidance to decision makers regarding the most effective way to obtain maximum impact from a given funding level. 6. Objectives: (Clear expression of purpose and goals.) This research will: (a) develop one or more comprehensive methodologies for risk-based resource allocation among discrete counterterrorism measures; (b) perform feasibility testing of these methods through application to actual data on bioterrorism threat reduction measures; (c) develop one or more comprehensive methodologies for allocation funding where the decisions are selection of continuous funding levels rather than discrete counter measures; (d) perform feasibility testing of these methods through application to the problem of allocating state grants for emergency responders; (e) summarize and evaluate the conceptual and practical soundness of alternative risk-based resource allocation strategies, including comparing the methods developed to allocations developed by other methods and approaches. 7. Interfaces to CREATE Projects: (How will your project integrate with other Center projects). This work will maintain a close interface with CREATE s PortSec risk analysis and economics project in evaluating the security resource allocations. 8. Previous or current work relevant to the proposed project. We are working with the Infrastructure Protection division of the DHS to use their RAMCAP methodology for prioritizing risks, and with the California Office of Homeland Security to implement a pilot study to prioritize California sites in terms of risks and risk reductions. We also plan to collaborate with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories HOPS program to provide risk assessments. 4

5 CREATE White Paper Format (Example) 9. Major Products and Customers: (What are the major products of this effort, and who are the primary clients that are interested in the results.) Project deliverables will consist of a report that will: (a) develop one or more comprehensive methodologies for risk-based resource allocation among discrete counterterrorism measures; (b) perform feasibility testing of these methods through application to actual data on bioterrorism threat reduction measures; and (c) develop one or more comprehensive methodologies for allocation funding where the decisions are selection of continuous funding levels rather than discrete counter measures. Customers: DHS IP; DHS ORD; California OHS Products will include: Risk assessment methodology for prioritizing projects and programs and to gauge the cost/effectiveness of investments in risk reductions; research publications and reports. 10. Technical Approach: (Describe technical approach to achieve research objectives.) The methods developed will build on previous research on decision analysis methods for resource allocation and the use of mathematical programming for optimal resource allocation. Consequence assessment models and risk reduction assessments will be based on a mix of methodologies including probabilistic risk analysis, economic analysis, and qualitative assessments by experts, as appropriate. Methods for combining these assessments will be grounded in the theory and methods of multiattribute utility and value models. The overall resource allocation framework uses mathematical programming including linear, nonlinear, and integer programming. (continue, expand as necessary, within page limit guidelines) 11. References: 12. Major Milestones and Dates: (Key progress management steps and schedule) 1. Develop risk and consequence measures to reflect the impact of terrorism events and a multidimensional risk index that combines these diverse risk and consequence measures based on policy makers judgments about the relative severity of consequences -- March Incorporate the risk reduction measures into a risk allocation model that takes into account both the effectiveness of various alternatives and their cost -- June Conduct case study for bioterrorism risk reduction -- August Explore extensions of model to account for continuous expenditure levels -- September Budget: (1-2 paragraph narrative to accompany project cost). This one-year project will be conducted for $50,000. This will cover one month of salary for the PI and one graduate assistant. The budget would allow for one trip to attend a meeting at USC, one trip to DC, and one trip to a conference to present results. The budget would also allow for a limited materials and supply budget for project-related expenses. 14. Brief Bios (PI and up to two Co-PI s): One page maximum for each PI and each Co-PI. 5

6 Current CREATE Project Progress Report Additional Requirement for Currently Funded CREATE Projects (Not Counted in Page Count Limit Described Above) Please provide a 2-3 page Progress Report for your project according to the format below. Title of Your Project, PI s Name 1. Research Accomplishments [Summarize research results in 1-2 paragraphs. If you have multiple sub-projects, please provide 1-2 paragraphs for each sub-project] 2. Applied Relevance [Summarize applied relevance (utility to DHS or other government agencies) of each sub-project paragraphs per sub-project] 3. Collaborative Projects [Describe any collaborations with other CREATE projects, collaborative projects with other DHS Centers of Excellence, Minority Serving Institutions, local law enforcement, other NSF grants, etc. -- not more than 1-2 paragraphs] 4. Research Products [List a) publications, b) presentations, and, c) software tools, models and products developed during the reporting period.] 5. Transition Products [List all research transitioned to user community during the reporting period, identify who is using it, and describe how it is being used.] 6. Education and Outreach Products [Number of students supported and students involved in projects, list conferences sponsored or co-sponsored, list participation in committee work, identify substantive contacts with DHS and other Federal agencies, meetings with government entities and non-create organizations, etc.] 7. Current Expenditures [How are your expenditures coming along? Are you on schedule to completely use your budget by 9/30/2013?] 6

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