Long Term Defence Study

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1 Long Term Defence Study LtCol Johan Hansson SwAF HQ 1

2 Long Term Defence Studies Three main objectives: To identify uncertainties. To create some scenarios which demonstrates the coming challenges rather than an exact forecast. To develop a flexible, robust and adaptive Defence Force which can meet the coming challenges.

3 Two concepts identical method Perspective Study Has the objective to fulfil the need for a political decision basis, when government so requests, e.g. in their preparation of Defence Bills or related to the work in the Parliamentary Defence Commission. Long Term Military-Strategic Analysis Forms the base for internal decisions by the Supreme Commander, concerning the direction of the Armed Forces, e.g. the yearly Armed Forces Strategic Directional Document. 3

4 Perspective Study - Aim and role The aim is to identify changes or trends, both externally and within the Armed Forces, leading to a potential need to change the strategic directives to the Armed Forces, and in what ways this should be done. Now Armed Forces directional documents 10 years Beyond and beside current plans Beyond and beside current political directives The role is to identify crossroads and study different alternatives and plausible development of the future, beyond and beside defence policy decisions and current plans. 4

5 Defence Review Process General Election Planning Instrux Defence Commission Report 1 Defence Commission Report 2 Defence Bill to the Parliament 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Budget Proposal PerP Study Budget Proposal SwAf Answer Budget Proposal

6 Global Strategic Trends 1. The significance of Asia 2. The significance of the Arctic region 3. The development of the trans-atlantic link? USA focussing towards Asia 5. The European influence The Western influence in the Middle East 7. Ecological challenges 3? 1 8. Energy dependence Globalization and focus on sustainable flows / choke-points 6? 9 6

7 The Military Balance 1. Un-coordinated Europé with less military spending 2. US drawdown in Europe 3. Russian military reform non contact war 4. US and China in ASIA increased focus on military capabilities. Europe US Russia Increased Russian military capabilty and freedom of action

8 Military Technology Trends Long range strike weapons Unmanned system Cyber capacity Space based capacities Cooperative Engagement Capability Cyber

9 Military Technology Trends Long range strike weapons Unmanned system Cyber capacity Space based capacities Cooperative Engagement Capability Cyber

10 Military Technology Trends Long range strike weapons Unmanned system Cyber capacity Space based capacities Cooperative Engagement Capability Cyber

11 Military Technology Trends Long range strike weapons Unmanned system Cyber capacity Space based capacities Cooperative Engagement Capability Cyber

12 Force Development Cooperative Engagement Capability Position Distance to target Bearing to target Doppler Air Sea Battle Fast data links: Parallel high speed transmission and sensor fusion Position Distance to target Bearing to target Doppler Requirements examples: Exact time sync between nodes Navigation according to WGS 84 Radars with ability for continuous tracking Low sensitivity to jamming CEC Cooperative Engagement Capability 12

13 Conclusions - Change in use of military force Cyber OODA Space EWS Long range weapon systems Unmanned systems Unconventional capabilities Automation Stealth Lower threashold - military force System of systems / CEC (DEW) Computer & communication Technologies Sensorfusion & signalprocessing

14 Future Caracter of Conflict in Our Area Means: Cyber warfare Target: Command and Control Target: Tech. infrastructur Target: - Lines of communications - Military strategic important areas Means: Mission based standing units Means: Long distance weapons A future armed attack involving Sweden, will seek to defeat our Armed Forces from a distance, before exposing its own personnel to danger. It can be done through specific target selection and precision strikes with noncontact warfare, special operations and cyber operations. Infrastructure and nodes, especially civil and military headquarters, logistics hub, air bases and ports are expected to be particularly vulnerable to kinetic and electronic warfare. Not least because of its vulnerability and links to their physical and electromagnetic signatures.

15 Long Term Study concept Koncept Pro Active Offensive Long Distance Missiles Cyber Operative Depth Koncept Active Manouvre Warfare Koncept Re-Active Endurnace Secure Inrastructure Cyber Defence Cyber Space CEC Missile Defence Drones

16 The Strategic Challange How to create a credible threshold effect with the armed forces as an instrument? Geography Treshold Capabilities Strategic context & sitution

17 Future Character of Conflicts A future operational commander will most likely be much concerned with cyber and e dimensions as he will with traditional environmental factors. This may necessitate a rebalancing of our environmental focus over the next 20 years, more towards the virtual environments. Attacks in the future could come from a greater variety of different sources: from seemingly harmless civilians such as hactivists in cities far from an operational theatre that may elect to disrupt operations and homeland infrastructure and from swarm attacks in any environment that may be initiated and launched through the Internet, including social media; to increasingly automated conventional or ballistic missile attack but also swarm attacks from unmanned systems. Our strategic communications will need to be increasingly agile in response to the likely tempo of activity. The future operating environment will be more uncertain; more dynamic; more demanding and more complex, from physical to virtual aspects. It will require ever more agile forces, that can adapt and operate in dynamic ways across all environments including once committed exploiting the latest means against an array of threats and challenges.

18 Thank You! LtCol Johan Hansson SwAF HQ

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