1 Long Term Defence Study LtCol Johan Hansson SwAF HQ 1
2 Long Term Defence Studies Three main objectives: To identify uncertainties. To create some scenarios which demonstrates the coming challenges rather than an exact forecast. To develop a flexible, robust and adaptive Defence Force which can meet the coming challenges.
3 Two concepts identical method Perspective Study Has the objective to fulfil the need for a political decision basis, when government so requests, e.g. in their preparation of Defence Bills or related to the work in the Parliamentary Defence Commission. Long Term Military-Strategic Analysis Forms the base for internal decisions by the Supreme Commander, concerning the direction of the Armed Forces, e.g. the yearly Armed Forces Strategic Directional Document. 3
4 Perspective Study - Aim and role The aim is to identify changes or trends, both externally and within the Armed Forces, leading to a potential need to change the strategic directives to the Armed Forces, and in what ways this should be done. Now Armed Forces directional documents 10 years Beyond and beside current plans Beyond and beside current political directives The role is to identify crossroads and study different alternatives and plausible development of the future, beyond and beside defence policy decisions and current plans. 4
5 Defence Review Process General Election Planning Instrux Defence Commission Report 1 Defence Commission Report 2 Defence Bill to the Parliament 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Budget Proposal PerP Study Budget Proposal SwAf Answer Budget Proposal
6 Global Strategic Trends 1. The significance of Asia 2. The significance of the Arctic region 3. The development of the trans-atlantic link? USA focussing towards Asia 5. The European influence The Western influence in the Middle East 7. Ecological challenges 3? 1 8. Energy dependence Globalization and focus on sustainable flows / choke-points 6? 9 6
7 The Military Balance 1. Un-coordinated Europé with less military spending 2. US drawdown in Europe 3. Russian military reform non contact war 4. US and China in ASIA increased focus on military capabilities. Europe US Russia Increased Russian military capabilty and freedom of action
8 Military Technology Trends Long range strike weapons Unmanned system Cyber capacity Space based capacities Cooperative Engagement Capability Cyber
9 Military Technology Trends Long range strike weapons Unmanned system Cyber capacity Space based capacities Cooperative Engagement Capability Cyber
10 Military Technology Trends Long range strike weapons Unmanned system Cyber capacity Space based capacities Cooperative Engagement Capability Cyber
11 Military Technology Trends Long range strike weapons Unmanned system Cyber capacity Space based capacities Cooperative Engagement Capability Cyber
12 Force Development Cooperative Engagement Capability Position Distance to target Bearing to target Doppler Air Sea Battle Fast data links: Parallel high speed transmission and sensor fusion Position Distance to target Bearing to target Doppler Requirements examples: Exact time sync between nodes Navigation according to WGS 84 Radars with ability for continuous tracking Low sensitivity to jamming CEC Cooperative Engagement Capability 12
13 Conclusions - Change in use of military force Cyber OODA Space EWS Long range weapon systems Unmanned systems Unconventional capabilities Automation Stealth Lower threashold - military force System of systems / CEC (DEW) Computer & communication Technologies Sensorfusion & signalprocessing
14 Future Caracter of Conflict in Our Area Means: Cyber warfare Target: Command and Control Target: Tech. infrastructur Target: - Lines of communications - Military strategic important areas Means: Mission based standing units Means: Long distance weapons A future armed attack involving Sweden, will seek to defeat our Armed Forces from a distance, before exposing its own personnel to danger. It can be done through specific target selection and precision strikes with noncontact warfare, special operations and cyber operations. Infrastructure and nodes, especially civil and military headquarters, logistics hub, air bases and ports are expected to be particularly vulnerable to kinetic and electronic warfare. Not least because of its vulnerability and links to their physical and electromagnetic signatures.
15 Long Term Study concept Koncept Pro Active Offensive Long Distance Missiles Cyber Operative Depth Koncept Active Manouvre Warfare Koncept Re-Active Endurnace Secure Inrastructure Cyber Defence Cyber Space CEC Missile Defence Drones
16 The Strategic Challange How to create a credible threshold effect with the armed forces as an instrument? Geography Treshold Capabilities Strategic context & sitution
17 Future Character of Conflicts A future operational commander will most likely be much concerned with cyber and e dimensions as he will with traditional environmental factors. This may necessitate a rebalancing of our environmental focus over the next 20 years, more towards the virtual environments. Attacks in the future could come from a greater variety of different sources: from seemingly harmless civilians such as hactivists in cities far from an operational theatre that may elect to disrupt operations and homeland infrastructure and from swarm attacks in any environment that may be initiated and launched through the Internet, including social media; to increasingly automated conventional or ballistic missile attack but also swarm attacks from unmanned systems. Our strategic communications will need to be increasingly agile in response to the likely tempo of activity. The future operating environment will be more uncertain; more dynamic; more demanding and more complex, from physical to virtual aspects. It will require ever more agile forces, that can adapt and operate in dynamic ways across all environments including once committed exploiting the latest means against an array of threats and challenges.
The Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation April 27, 2015 I. Defense Cooperation and the Aim of the Guidelines In order to ensure Japan s peace and security under any circumstances, from peacetime
31 July 2014 Subject: Release of the National Defense Panel report, Ensuring a Strong U.S. Defense for the Future On behalf of the co-chairs of the National Defense Panel, the United States Institute of
Political Guidelines of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group Political Principles of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group Political Principles of the ECR Group submitted by the Working
-9 NATO CIVIL-MILITARY CO-OPERATION (CIMIC) DOCTRINE Chapter 1 AJP-9 NATO CIVIL-MILITARY CO-OPERATION (CIMIC) DOCTRINE (JUNE, 2003) i ii AJP Chapter 1 Chapter 1 RECORD OF CHANGES Change Date Date Entered
Offensive Cyber Capabilities at the Operational Level The Way Ahead Project Directors James A. Lewis J.D. McCreary Author Maren Leed September 2013 Blank Offensive Cyber Capabilities at the Operational
A NEW PARTNERSHIP AGENDA CHARTING A NEW HORIZON FOR UN PEACEKEEPING Department of Peacekeeping Operations and Department of Field Support New York, July 2009 A NEW PARTNERSHIP AGENDA Charting a New Horizon
NORTH ATLANTIC MILITARY COMMITTEE COMITE MILITAIRE DE L ATLANTIQUE DE NORD (Final) 16 January 1968 FINAL DECISION ON A REPORT BY THE MILITARY COMMITTEE to the DEFENCE PLANNING COMMITTEE on OVERALL STRATEGIC
20YY SERIES M A Y 2 0 1 4 Robotics on the Battlefield Part I: Range, Persistence and Daring By Paul Scharre Also in this Series 20YY: Preparing for War in the Robotic Age by Robert O. Work and Shawn Brimley
FORWARD ENGAGED READY A Cooperative Strategy for 21 st Century Seapower MARCH 2015 PREFACE America s Sea Services the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard uniquely provide presence around the globe.
C e n t e r f o r S t r a t e g i c a n d B u d g e t a r y A s s e s s m e n t s AirSea Battle A Point-of-Departure Operational Concept Jan van Tol with Mark Gunzinger, Andrew Krepinevich, and Jim Thomas
EUROPEAN COMMISSION HIGH REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND SECURITY POLICY Brussels, 11.12.2013 JOIN(2013) 30 final JOINT COMMUNICATION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL
THE NORWEGIAN GOVERNMENT S HIGH NORTH STRATEGY Photos/illustrations: Page 1: Scanpix Creative, Barents Secretariat, SINTEF Helse, Kjell Ove Storvik, Harald Pettersen, Statoil, Christian Houge, Samfoto,
Defense Science Board 2004 Summer Study on Transition to and from Hostilities December 2004 Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Washington, D.C. 20301-3140
CYBERSECURITY POLICY MAKING AT A TURNING POINT Analysing a new generation of national cybersecurity strategies for the Internet economy Also includes contributions from non-governmental stakeholders Cybersecurity
COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Brussels, 31 March 2014 (OR. en) 8387/14 LIMITE CSDP/PSDC 206 COVER NOTE From: To: Subject: European External Action Service (EEAS) European Union Military Committee (EUMC)
A/47/277 - S/24111 17 June 1992 An Agenda for Peace Preventive diplomacy, peacemaking and peace-keeping Report of the Secretary-General pursuant to the statement adopted by the Summit Meeting of the Security
Eleven lessons: managing design in eleven global brands A study of the design process How do leading companies manage design in their businesses? Our in-depth study of the design processes used in eleven
PROJECT FINAL REPORT Grant Agreement number: 212117 Project acronym: FUTUREFARM Project title: FUTUREFARM-Integration of Farm Management Information Systems to support real-time management decisions and
National Emergency Communications Plan 2014 This page intentionally left blank. MESSAGE FROM THE SECRETARY Since the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was established in 2003, one of its top priorities
International Criminal Court Office of the Prosecutor Strategic plan June 2012-2015 11 October 2013 The OTP strategic plan is complementary to the ICC strategic plan and focuses in more detail on OTP-specific
EN HORIZON 2020 WORK PROGRAMME 2014 2015 5. Leadership in enabling and industrial technologies iii. Space Revised This Work Programme was adopted on 10 December 2013. The parts that relate to 2015 (topics,
New Zealand s National Security System May 2011 Contents Purpose... 3 What is National Security?... 3 Principles... 4 The Existing National Security System... 5 Scope... 5 Risk Management... 5 Subsidiarity...
British military attitudes to nuclear weapons and disarmament A research report by Nuclear Education Trust and Nuclear Information Service, June 2015 MILITARY ATTITUDES TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND DISARMAMENT
Joint Publication 3-13 R TMENT THI S W E' L L O F D E F E N D THE ARMY DEPA U NI TE D S TAT E S F O A AME RI C Information Operations 27 November 2012 Incorporating Change 1 20 November 2014 PREFACE 1.