GCC Homeland Security in a New Order. Dr. Theodore Karasik Director of Research and Consultancy INEGMA. September 2013

Transcription

1 GCC Homeland Security in a New Order Dr. Theodore Karasik Director of Research and Consultancy INEGMA September 2013

2 Secular Sectarian Tribal State Actors Regional Shifts and Threats in the New Order A mushrooming affect is occurring involving hybrid groups Groups learning curve rising on Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs) in i.e. bomb making, UAVs, communications, etc. Regional states are reacting to the development by coalescing approaches and resources (Un)Predictable consequences?

3 Several Classes of Threats to the GCC in the New Order Threats to territorial sovereignty of the GCC itself by a conventional force Threats to governance directed specifically at the royal families (e.g., coups, assassinations) Threats to GCC s external access (sea lanes, air corridors, closing of borders) Threats to GCC s society at large aimed at hurting the civilian populace (e.g., mass casualty terror attacks) Threats to GCC s infrastructure to break willpower Threats of internal insurrection, protests (e.g., foreign worker revolt) as laborers are brining with them grievances from home countries within the GCC Threats of unrest and spillover from neighbor(s)

4 Five Key Defense Requirements Based on Threats to Homeland Security in the New Order Missile and Missile Technology Special Mission Aircraft (ISR/SIGINT) C2 & ISR-Exploitation Physical Security (Infrastructure Protection, Border Security Systems) Cyber

5 The Threat reality System Capabilities Identify the threat Discuss & Develop Doctrine, Rules of Engagement, Tactics, Techniques & Procedures Assess & Evaluation Identify Requirements Integrate systems, exercise & rehearse plans Assess & Evaluation Integration & Exercises Education and Planning The GCC needs a common doctrine, Rules of Engagement, and procedures for conducting joint operations

6 GCC Homeland Security Network Architectur IP technology allows any IP capable asset to participate in the network Space Backbone Dynamic Mobile Networks Airborne Backbone Tactical Network Edge TDLs Emerging Tactical Networks ISR Network Edge Emerging Sensor Networks OFN Wired Backbone (Fiber) Fixed-Infrastructure Mobile Terrestrial Networks Maritime Backbone Network Participation Layers Space Backbone Theater Backbone Tactical Backbone Operations backbone Munitions Backbone Munitions Network IP Router

7 Three Critical Preparatory Tasks for GCC Homeland Security in the New Order Financial Security Physical Security Media

8 Financial Security Plan/Prepare to pump money into economy for stabilization Exercise strong oversight on pricing of essential consumer goods and prevent acts of profiteering to reduce risks of inflation at time of an event or conflict Stock up on essential products in event GCC surrounded by a two-front war Plan now for how air routes and air space will be affected by warfare or terrorism Begin to plan alternative GCC air routes and the costs associated with them

9 Physical Security (1) Improve passive defense GCC residents must feel that they are safe at all times, even when the region is in a state of war. Thus, authorities must discreetly prepare bomb shelters and emergency rescue plans to be announced and implemented when time comes Establish emergency alarm systems Have robust action plan in case internal violence breaks out after attack on Iran Bolster the early warning and air defense systems around the GCC s strategic sites Improve security of critical structures and compounds housing Westerners Increase human intelligence and signal intelligence operations Finally, understand and mitigate current trends in terrorist intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance strategies

10 Physical Security (2) Review/Improve GCC Crisis Management coordination on tactical and strategic levels Measures should be put in place to ensure that GCC airports and ports would stay open with as little interruptions as possible during any military conflict or acts of terror Have extra runways and sea lanes readied and emergency control centers prepared to direct traffic in case of major incidents or war or terrorism. Study best means of utilizing ground and sea transportation to fill need of much needed supplies and material from abroad if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked or borders are closed

11 Media Prepare a large-scale media plan for all GCC media outlets that would focus on spreading messages that would keep the mood calm The ultimate objective is to consolidate the coexistence amongst the expatriates and maintain business confidence in the GCC States Media coverage of incidents inside the GCC must be monitored and at times censored in case of war/terror attacks to serve the public good and the city s reputation Outside view of GCC governments are of one and united.

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