Volumetric/Hydro-ecological Stabilization and Permanence. Supply of complementary and/or regulatory volume of water from Caspian Sea to Urumia Lake

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1 1 Urumia Lake Volumetric/Hydro-ecological Stabilization and Permanence Supply of complementary and/or regulatory volume of water from Caspian Sea to Urumia Lake Hossein Golabian Ph.D. Key words: urmia; urmiye; urmiya, urmu, Orumieh, urmieh, orumiyeh, Oroumieh Lake Rezaiyeh ) درياچه اروميه رضاي يه ارومی گلی چيچست درياچه شاهی ( 1: Introduction "Urumia Lake (Fig.1), an internationally important wetland, home of a unique brine shrimp species (Artemia Urmiana) and seasonal settlement for thousands of migrating birds is in great danger. Fig.1 Urumia Lake in deep crisis: Left side: oversaturated water; right side: salt crystals Urumia Lake has been facing a grave crisis over the past 10 years. Prolonged drought is threatening the lake's biodiversity and ecology. Reduction of water depth by 6 meters, increasing water salinity to saturation level (much higher than tolerance range of Artemia and migrating birds), appearance of huge salt fields around the lake, and huge reduction in Artemia population, is alarming indications of gradual total desiccation of the beautiful and unique ecosystem, the Urumia Lake. The salinity ranges from 330 to 400 ppt at different areas of the lake and one can easily see salt crystallization (Fig.1, right picture) on the surface of the lake with naked eye. It is interesting to know that Artemia is still struggling and fighting against this extreme salinity and one can observe them alive swimming in the lake. The lake has reduced in depth by over 6 meters and huge areas around the lake have dried up forming vast salty desert. It seems the lake is in the process of drying up and therefore Artemia Urmiana and the water birds depending on the lake are being threatened to extinction. Based on research done by a number of international experts, the Urumia Lake has been the only home of Artemia Urmiana, one of the oldest populations of Artemia who has inhabited the

2 2 lake since millions of years ago. The lake is losing its international importance as a unique region for thousands/millions of migratory birds which used to spend their winter or lay eggs and feed their offspring with nutritious Artemia. As the lake is a major hub for migrating birds throughout Western Asia and Eastern Africa, the evolution in Urumia Lake is an issue transcending Iranian borders and is truly of regional/global importance."(agh 2008) To tackle the grave environmental/human problem arising from the Uremia Lake desiccation has been and still is a big issue and has got hotter by the aggravation of the problem presently. In similar cases all over the world, the human intervention, as an act of destructive engineering in the natural elements and processes are accused. In these accusations, a return to the original circumstances and situations is implicitly intended which is in most cases nearly impossible to fulfill because many newly concluded socio-economical and political interests and dependencies will resentfully defy and resist. In the most successful cases a complementary and/or amendment engineered intervention is the only solution. Our planet earth has not remained the same since the human being race was forced to change her livelihood from hunting and collection to agriculture and industry. Throughout the thousands of years of recorded history, she has changed or in better words engineered many aspects and parts of the natural environment. In fact her survival and growth has not been possible without these engineered changes. Now, in the case of Urumia Lake, we are facing a similar and typical scenario. In this chapter, on the basis of a structural and inherent analysis of the Urumia Lake phenomena, a proposal of modification engineering i.e. transfer of a regulatory quantity of water from Caspian Sea to Urumia Lake for volumetric and hydro-ecological stabilization and permanence will be described. For a better comprehension of the proposed solution of Urumia Lake, some illustrative and schematic drawings are prepared and presented in the due sections. Throughout the chapter, wherever necessary, some illustrative figures also are included to emphasis the concepts and issues in question. 2: Urumia Lake: a brief review (Eimanifar 2007) 2.1: Urumia Lake as a live system: Urumia Lake (or Orumiyeh) is one of the largest hyper saline lakes in the world ( g L -1 in the period ) and the habitat of a unique bisexual Artemia species (A. Urmiana). Urumia Lake, located in northwestern Iran, is an oligotrophic lake of thalassohaline origin with a total surface area changing between 4750 km2 and 6100 km2 and a maximum depth of 16 m at an altitude of 1262 m. The lake is divided into north and south parts separated by a causeway (Fig.2, left picture) in which a 1500-m gap provides little exchange of water between the two parts (Fig.2, right picture). Due to drought and increasing demand for agricultural water in the lake's basin, the salinity of the lake has risen to more than 350 g/l during recent years, and large areas of the lake bed have been desiccated.

3 3 Fig.2 Shahid Kalantari causeway across Urumia Lake; Left side: Construction in early stages; right side: causeway divides the lake into two separate parts (tebyan.net 2009) Urumia Lake is one of the largest permanent hyper saline lakes in the world which resembles the Great Salt Lake of Utah in many respects such as morphology, chemistry and sediments. These two lakes are like two twin sisters and even have similar shape and size. The hydrology of wetland areas creates the unique physicochemical conditions that make such an ecosystem different from both well-drained terrestrial systems and deepwater aquatic systems. Hydrologic conditions are extremely important for the maintenance of a given water body's structure and function and affect many abiotic factors which, in turn, may impact the biota that develop in it. Since saline lakes occur primarily in endorheic basins, they may be particularly sensitive to environmental changes because their size, salinity and annual mixing regimes vary with alterations in their hydrologic budgets. The total catchment area of the lake is about 51,876 Km2 which is 3.15 % of that of the entire country, and includes 7 % of the total surface water in Iran. There are thirteen main rivers in the lake basin, among them Zarrineh Rood, the largest with a total annual discharge value of about m3. Climate in the Urumia Lake basin is harsh and continental, affected mainly by the mountains surrounding the lake. Considerable seasonal fluctuations in air temperature occur in this semi arid climate with an annual average precipitation of between 200 to 300 mm. The air temperature usually ranges between -20 C to 0ºC in winter and up to 40 C in summer. From this point of view, Urumia Lake is a critical asset for the region, because it acts to moderate these extremes; the lake is a crucial climate moderator between day and night and warm and cold periods of the year. Annual draining in wet years into the lake is m3, of which m3 is from rivers, m3 from flood water (through rainfall) and m3 from precipitation. Underground springs are also a source of water, but the volume is not known. Morphometric characteristics of Urumia Lake are among those features that have been reported variously by different authors. In general, Urumia Lake has been shrinking for a long time, so its depth has decreased significantly during recent years. Due to years of progressive dry climate in the area, the water level is now more than 6 meters less than 20 years ago, a dramatic change. Little is known about historical lake-level variations because direct measurements have been sparse. Urumia Lake had an increased level (2 m) in the winter 1968/1969 but the variations reached to a

4 4 record height of m above sea level (a.s.l.) in , with annual fluctuations of about cm. Fig. 6 summarizes all available data on the surface level fluctuations during the last 104 years and clearly proves that the current low level has never been experienced during this period. A project to construct a causeway across Urumia Lake was initiated in 1979 (Fig.2 left picture) to facilitate communication between Tabriz in the east and Urumia City in the west. Shahid Kalantari highway which was built in the narrowest part of the lake in the middle, 15 kilometers long, divides the lake into south and north arms. To facilitate water flow between the north and south of the lake, a 1400 m wide opening covered by a bridge is provided. Although most of the rivers runoff into the lake from the southern half and there is a continuous water flow from south to north, there is no evidence that the causeway has affected the circulating regime or salinity of the lake. In this connection it is relevant to indicate that the major ions were distributed homogenously in the lake due to the strong currents, despite the presence of the causeway across the lake. 2.2: Hydrochemistry: Generally, Urumia Lake is classified as oceanic, being of the sodium- chloride- sulfate type. The main cations in the lake water include Na 2+, K 2+, Ca 2+, Li 2+ and Mg 2+, while Cl -, SO 4 -, HCO 3 - are the main anions. The Na 2+ and Cl - concentration is roughly 4 times the concentration of natural seawater. Sodium ions are at slightly higher concentration in the south compared to the north of the lake, which could result from the shallower depth in the south, and a higher net evaporation rate Artemia biology: Hyper saline organisms adapt to high salinities by means of various physiologic mechanisms, including osmoregulation and the synthesis and accumulation of various compatible solutes. The brine shrimp, Artemia (Fig.3) is the dominant macro zooplankton present in many hyper saline environments. Fig.3 Artemia Urmiana: left side and center: female and male Artemia in early stages; right side: a ca. 8 mm long full-grown Artemia 2.4: Ecology: Compared to other aspects of brine shrimp biology, ecological studies on Artemia are relatively few in number and that is especially the case for Urumia Lake. The brine shrimp population in Urumia Lake exhibits seasonal fluctuations that are similar to those reported for the Great Salt Lake

5 5 of Utah but differ in significant ways. Thus, hatching of cysts in the Great Salt Lake may occur as early as February when grazing pressure prevents the phytoplankton from reaching actual blooming densities in late spring as observed in other saline habitats. Adult Artemia densities in Urumia Lake, (3 adult L -1 ) in July 1994-January 1996 can be compared to the values reported for Great Salt Lake (4 adults. L -1 in July) and 10 L -1 for June and July, respectively and L -1 in late spring, respectively. These low densities correlate well with low algal biomass, and agree with the findings of that in the Great Salt Lake the highest Artemia densities coincide with the highest food concentrations, clearly illustrating the impact of food availability on the growth and reproduction of Artemia. A big difference between the two lakes is that the Great Salt Lake compared to Urumia Lake has much less fluctuation in volume, level and salinity range and therefore Artemia population and the food chain it is dependent on, is much less exposed and vulnerable to natural alternations. While having many similarities, the Great Salt Lake has a 60% to 70% share in international market of Cyst business, the Urumia Lake is not even known for its huge capacity. The natural habitat of Artemia Urmiana, one of the largest in the world is illustrated in Fig.4 (Reveshty 2000). The shallow coastal stripe in south, east and west of the lake if and when covered with water, becomes habitat for enormous Artemia Urmiana population. Fig. 4 Coastal layout of the Artemia Urmiana habitat

6 6 Urumia Lake with its endemic Artemia species and its large area has been proposed by UNESCO to become a national park owing to its unique features and the recognition that it is an important natural asset, with considerable cultural, economic, aesthetic, recreational, scientific, conservation and ecological value. The lake is extremely important for breeding Pelecanus onocrotalus, Egretta garzetta, Plegadis falcinellus, Platalea leucorodia, Phoenicopterus ruber, Tadorna ferruginea, Tadorna tadorna, Himantopus himantopus, Recurvirostra avosetta, Tringa totanus, Larus cachinnans armenicus and Larus genei. Other breeding birds include several pairs of Anser anser, Marmaronetta angustirostris and Aythya nyroca. Charadrius leschenaultii has been recorded during the summer months and may breed on the saline flats around the lake. Flamingos are known to breed in large numbers at Urumia Lake, and numbers still appear to be increasing slightly, with perhaps as many as 25,000 breeding pairs in recent years. Towards the end of the breeding season, the adults congregate in huge rafts to moult. The vast mudflats surrounding the lake are the most important autumn staging area for migratory shorebirds and garganey Anas querquedula in Iran. The lake appears to be an important moulting area for common shelduck Tadorna. Fig. 5 Wild life in the Urumia Lake coastline and islands: 3 species of migratory birds among hundreds Bacteriology: A review of Urumia Lake referred to bacteriological tests conducted on lake sediments, conclude that there are no bacteria in the lake that is pathogenic to humans. In previous studies Clostridium perfringens and Streptococcus faecalis were detected in Urumia Lake. It seems that these bacteria exist mainly in those areas at which rivers enter into the lake and appear to have origins from agricultural runoff and possibly sewage systems. 3: Urumia Lake: nature of the crisis According to the available data and information, the volume of Urumia Lake's water body and its surface level has been constantly changing phenomenon. Fig. 6 shows the recorded fluctuation of its surface level, from 1913 to The water body size in any period depends on two main factors: the rate of surface solar evaporation (which is almost a constant factor) and the amount of water entering the lake system from its basin of about km 2. The "hydrological budget" is very useful and key concept describing the situation in the lake. The lake's hydrological yearly budget inherently is involved in either deficits or surpluses. The surplus or deficit of the hydrological budget depends on certain regional and global factors and systems rather than local conditions. Based on nearly 100 years of recorded data mentioned in Fig.6, the fluctuative nature of the lake is clearly observed. The pattern shows that it takes about one decade or more to reach a maximum in volume and covered area as a result of gradual buildup of yearly budget surpluses. When a maximum has reached, gradual downwards inclination caused by accumulative pattern of yearly budget deficits begins to reach a bottom level, volume and surface area again. At the present time we are facing another

7 7 bottom situation level again, but unfortunately it is the most serious one ever happened in the recorded history. Fig.6 The historical pattern of the water level fluctuations in Urumia Lake The average quantity of annual hydrological budget deficit according to the Fig. 6 is calculated as below: The total surface level decreased during the 15 years in question (a) was about 7.5m (b), during this period the surface area has also shrunken from 5900 km2 to about 4500 km 2 which means an average surface area of ~5200 km2, thus the average yearly budget deficit can be calculated as: 5200 km2 (7.5 m /1000) / 15 years = 2.6 km3/y. A similar calculation for average hydrological budget surplus for period from 1913 to 1983, nearly 70 years, leads to a very low quantity: km3/y. In fact the actual budget surpluses seen from a fragmental perspective is very different, while the figure during 40 th is 2.4 km3/y, the amount increased to a very high quantity of 9 km3/y during We will return to these figures and the fundamental and key factors of hydrological budget deficits and surpluses later in the chapter.

8 8 Fig.7 Surface water level fluctuation in seasonal and periodical perspectives As shown in the schematic Fig.7, the actual fluctuation of the lake's water level (and consequently its volume) can be split into two integrated categories: first, annual fluctuations, which are approx cm, and second: periodical fluctuations, which happens during decade(s) long periods with a height of ca meters. The shallow depth of the lake causes a relatively small change in surface level and volume lead to serious and fundamental changes in chemistry and salinity range as main restricting factor to the bio-ecology and living space of Artemia Urmiana and dependent fauna and flora population. This reality is illustrated in a schematic equation, Fig. 8. Decreasing water volume (V Q ), as the sum of discharged quantities of water into the lake, while the total salt content is constant, increases the salinity range and changes its chemistry. In a similar mechanism but at a reversed interrelation, lowering of the salinity range depends on the increase of water volume.

9 9 Fig.8 Reverse equation between hydrological budget and salinity range In other words, the fluctuative nature of the Urumia Lake arises from the fact that 3 of 4 main factors and inputs interacting in the lake, as a live system, are constants: topographical/geographical conditions, salt content (estimated to be ca. 8 billions MT) and total absorbed heat energy from the sun radiation, while the fourth factor i.e. precipitation and amount of water discharged from its natural basin, is strongly changing and is an uneven and variable phenomenon. Therefore, the lake couldn't experience a stable and fixed volume, surface level, salinity range, coastal shape and shore line during its millions years long life. The lake has always been subject to unpredictable and uncontrollable fluctuations in every aspect of its life. From a bio-chemical point of view, When water volume of the Lake changes we do not have just a smaller or bigger lake but a quite different one. Therefore, we can't imagine any different and more stable condition in the future, especially when a big portion of the water volume naturally discharged into the lake is now being stopped and stored behind numerous reservoir dams (ca. 40) built for irrigation and domestic use in its basin territory. When the water volume shrinks, salinity range increases and directly causes destruction to the eco-system and food chain in the lake which consequently reduces the Artemia population proportionally. On the other hand, with increasing salinity, the dissolved oxygen and carbon dioxide content of the lake water decreases. Oxygen fatigue disturbs artemia breathing capacity and low carbon dioxide content decreases algae and phytoplankton photosynthesis activities as the base of the food chain (Stappen 1996). Most of the oxygen and carbon dioxide is naturally supplied by the oxygen/co 2 -rich water of inflowing rivers therefore when the water quantity of these rivers decreases it causes oxygen/co 2 fatigue of the lake's water body. Depending on the actual surface area of the lake and the precipitation magnitude of normal wet years, the level can increase by 60 to 100 cm; however in few exceptional cases more than 100 cm increase has also been recorded. While the increase of lake's surface level happens in rainy and cold seasons and months of the year (0 to -20º C), solar evaporation and subsequent surface level

10 10 decrease take place in the summer times when temperature can reach up to 40º C in long, sunny, windy and hot days. Fig.9 Structural analysis of the Urumia Lake's water body All these changes in the surface area and level, the magnitude of water body, salinity range and other time dependent specifications are summarized in Fig.9 (Alesheikh 2006). For simplification of the analysis, a sliced (layer) structure for the lake's water body is assumed. The most suitable level from ecological point of view is 1278 ± 0.5m a.s.l. At this level the total volume of the water increases to more than ca. 50km3 with a salinity range of 14-16% and a surface area of ca km2. From hydro-ecological point of view, this is a dream level which was reached once after nearly 81 years in 1994 and lasted only 3-4 years: Fig.10. This period was the most flourishing and fruitful years for harvesting cyst and biomass of Artemia Urmiana which created great hopes and visions to have an Artemia industry in huge economical scale with intentions to enter the world market. The optimism lasted only a very short time and soon the lake level began to drop and new drought and desiccation period started which has lasted up till now. From bio-ecological point of view, the year 2009 was the lowest level recorded ever.

11 11 Fig.10 Ecological tolerance border One to two meters decrease in the surface level (slices H and G, Fig.9) dramatically changes everything: surface area of the lake decrease by 18% and volume shrinks to 44 km3 and salinity increases to 18 20%. The decreased level and surface area of 18% includes the shallowest and most important coastal areas, which are the natural habitat of Artemia Urmiana. By continued decrease in the surface level, coastal line retreats further and salinity increases beyond the tolerance of biota in the lake. The long period exposure of peripheral shallow, but extremely vital parts of the lake, to sun heat and wind destroys and deeply damages the precious mudflat which contains the crucial base for "food chain" necessary for Artemia, fauna population and wild life dependent on them. The level in year 2009 (slices E-F), was m a.s.l. and surface area was 32% less than maximum and water volume was as little as ca.32 km 3 with salinity range over 35%; a real catastrophic situation. The level in March 2010 was reported to be as low as m a.s.l. (Abas- Nejad, 2010) which means the surface level has dropped to the bottom of slice F (Fig.9) and surface area has reduced by ca. 40% to ca.4000 km2. In other words, some ~ hectares of the lakebed has already desiccated and converted to salty land. The global warming and periodical dry periods and droughts are not the only causes for the shrinking of Urumia Lake, there are other reasons too. The huge and rapidly increasing demand for the very limited and inadequate fresh water sources in the basin area and its vicinity is another factor to be considered seriously. The population depending on these water resources exceeds 5-6 million. Rapid expansion of the deeply irrigation dependent agriculture in the recent decades is another important reason. Expansion of cities and urban areas with big demand for fresh water is so huge that should be included in the future calculations. The total water volume discharged to the lake is much less than severely needed of ca. 6 Km3 per year; therefore the hydrological budget deficit is huge and might get bigger by the year. While the water body continues shrinking, due to a constant quantity of salt and minerals, the salinity of the lake has increased to 30-40%. Salt crystals grow everywhere and turquoise water views are replaced by salt and dead birds buried in the salt.

12 12 The Fig.11 is a schematic 3D model of Urumia Lake which illustrates typical and possible hydroecological scenarios: 1, 2, 3 and 4. Please notice that, for the sake of a discrete visualization, the dimensions in Z axis (depth) is strongly exaggerated, while the same in X and Y axis are correct and proportional. (Alesheikh 2006) Fig.11 Volumetric visualization of Urumia Lake and its water body in 4 types of hydroecological scenarios Scenario 1: The most desirable situation from all point of views, according to the memory of the current generation and recorded information, was reached during the years ! The satellite pictures in the Fig. 12 show the lake in the highest and most favorable level. (It should be pointed out that the main goal of the present proposal is to repeat this favorable condition and try to make it sustainable and permanent).

13 13 Fig. 12 Satellite pictures of the lake during its best days: Left side: Islami Island; right side: Urumia Lake water body in its maximum volume (Earth Snapshot 2010) Scenario 2: This is the most common and mostly repeated situation in which the ecology is very fragile and is under constant stresses. Artemia and wild life survive in this situation but in a very limited size and scale. The following picture was taken in 2003 (Fig.13). The coast line has retreated and Islami Island, the biggest one in the lake, has partially been attached to the land and become a peninsula. Fig. 13 Satellite pictures, the beginning of the recent crisis: Shore line has retreated and Islami Island has converted to a peninsula (Earth Snapshot 2010)

14 14 Scenario 3: In this case, the ecological tragedy is a factum. In 2003, a usual low bottom level was met and it was hoped that following the previous trends, the curve will turn upwards, but surprisingly it continued its downward trend and in the years reached a historical bottom level. Artemia life came to a standstill; migrating wild life left the coastal areas and has not returned back trying to find alternative places in other continents. Fig.14, left side clearly shows the miserable situation of Urumia Lake by December 13th, 2009 ( The Islami peninsula has completely attached to the mainland and southern coast has nearly dried up. Fig.14 Urumia Lake crisis compared to the Aral Sea disaster: Left side: Urumia Lake in early 2010, southern parts have dried up; middle: Mainly dried Aral Sea in a miserable condition; Right side: Poisonous storms from the dried lake-bed of Aral Sea Scenario 4: This is a real nightmare situation in which the Urumia Lake has become a new Aral Sea and its 8 billion MT of salt bomb has been activated and the surrounding communities in Iran and neighboring countries have come under the threat of salt dust storms and its disastrous consequences. Similar disastrous storms are already a factum in Central Asia. The salt storm over desiccated lakebed of Aral Sea on September 1, 2006 is a good example of what could happen to Urumia Lake: Fig.14, middle and right side (earthobservatory 2006). As mentioned earlier, the water body of Urumia Lake has a very important function as climate moderator between day and night, summer and winter. Sun heat gradually warms up the salty water which leads to the deposition of huge quantity of solar energy as heat which later is released to the adjoining atmosphere. The heat capacity of the water body is directly in proportion to the magnitude of lake's water body therefore by reduction of its volume, the heat capacity which the immediate nature is dependent on, decreases proportionately with catastrophic impact on regional climate and environment, on agriculture and fruit gardening, etc, However Urumia Lake is some 10 times smaller in surface area and 20 times smaller in volume compared to the original Aral Sea, but while Aral Sea is situatated in the middle of very huge central Asian desert and semi desert region, Urumia Lake is in the middle of a very densely populated area including north-west Iran, southern Caucasia, northern Iraq and eastern Turkey. Salt storm as a low-lying cloud of airborne salt and minerals can hover over large areas around the lake including several big cities like Tabriz, Urumia, and even far beyond them. Salt storms in Urumia, similar to the case of Aral Sea, can pose serious health hazards to surrounding areas, as the minerals blown about by these storms are highly toxic, leading to adverse health effects such as throat and lung cancer, anemia and esophagus cancer alongside with epidemic levels of tuberculoses,

15 15 kidney, liver and respiratory diseases, immunological/neurological problems, both genetic and birth defects and decreased life expectancy. Dust storm are not only hazardous to people but can even destroy their agriculture and economy as well. (Whish-Wilson 2002) 4: Sustainable solution for the crisis of Urumia Lake Generally speaking, in order to break this vain circle once and for all, the attitude toward the lake must change fundamentally, from a so-so policy to a deep-seated approach. In many years, discussion has been concentrated on the solutions which have proved unrealistic and unfeasible: from many points of view. The Urumia Lake is so unique and precious asset that deserves to be handled in a long term constructive and fundamental manner instead of reflective and short term actions. The attempts must be concentrated on bringing the lake to an ideal and hydro-ecologically sustainable state i.e. a permanently stabilized state. This is possible only by elimination of periodical fluctuations and careful administration and regulation of ordinarily seasonal and annual fluctuations. In other words, we have to try to find a way to realize the desire for "volumetric and hydroecological stabilization and permanence of Urumia Lake". Fig.15 tries to illustrate this idea, where the red curve, which represents the current instability and vacillative nature of the lake, gradually develops (through emergency rescuing step and following regulation/stabilization) into the green curve showing a stable and controllable surface level, water body volume, constant bio-eco-friendly salinity range and coastal line. According to a rough calculations, there is a need for some 15 to 20 km3 of water for restoration of the water volume to an ecologically minimum level (scenario 2, in Fig.11), and then for following stabilization/permanence step, in the most suitable hydro-ecological level (scenario 1) an additional amount of 10 to 15 km3 of water. Permanence of the scenario 1 is possible only when the yearly hydrological budget deficit is administrated by the macro-engineering methods. Fig.15 Engineered rescue and stabilization strategy Where from all these relatively huge quantities of water can be provided? The available information and evidences prove that the volume of water needed for the stabilization of Urumia

16 16 Lake will not be available through the rivers of its basin or even in the rivers of the neighboring basins. Usually two kinds of solutions are proposed: first one is to increase the share of the lake from total amount of precipitation magnitude and the second one is to import water from rivers of neighboring basins. The first solution is very difficult and most probably impossible to fulfill because the population depending on the available quantity of water in the region for their economy is increasing, both in number and needs and there will not be any excess of water to be devoted to the lake and even if such a source existed, it couldn't be reliable in the long term. The second solution is also nearly impossible and unrealistic because the same drought which has decreased precipitation in the Urumia Lake basin also has done the same in the neighboring basins which support the rivers in question. There is a general shortage of fresh water for human use and agriculture in the whole region and therefore it would not be a long term and sustainable solution to be dependent on these resources of water for which huge potential demand is growing following population increase in the whole region. Yet there is another good idea that is discussed among the experts i.e. cold cloud seeding for precipitation enhancement. This method is conditioned to the availability of the enough amounts of moisture saturated clouds which in a dry period is very rare and unreliable too. Fig. 16 Time pattern for the restoration and permanence of Urumia Lake

17 17 The long term and sustainable solution is nothing less than the administration and elimination of yearly hydrologic budget deficits and guarantee of a regulative and complementary budget surplus whenever necessary. From economical, technical and practical point of view, there are four alternatives illustrated in Fig.16 (C0, C1, C2 and C3): - C 0 is a prognosis of time and pattern of Urumia Lake's restoration in a natural manner repeated in the past. If a regime of yearly budget surpluses similar to the situation prevailed between years 1913 to 1993 repeats itself, then it will probably take 70±10-15 years before Urumia Lake can be restored to its ecological level again; and if restored, then how long it might last before a new era of drought returns back!? This is the most hopeless and passive solution that should be abandoned. - C 1 is the most low cost macro-engineered solution for the containment of the crisis which will restore the lake to its ecological level after 7.5 years. In this solution the low capacity of 3.1km 3 /y can't cope with a hydrological budget deficit of magnitude of 5.7km 3 /y happened during C 2 is an alternative with a capacity of 4.3 km3/y and will take 5.5 years for restoration and containment of the crisis which can compensate most part of the maximum yearly budget deficits of 5.7km 3 /y recorded ever. In this case the gap with the worst scenario of is small and might be administrable with a minimum damage to the ecology of the lake. According to this alternative, after restoration of the ecological level which will take place in the first 5.5 years, there will be an excess capacity of ( =) 1.7 km 3 /y to make it possible to decrease the operation period from 12 to 10 months of the year leaving 2 months free for technical maintenance and overhaul of the whole water transferring system- after 5-6 years of nonstop operation. - C3 is the most costly solution and can restore the ecological level in only 3.5 years time but later there will be a large excess of operational capacity which will remain idle. 5: Caspian Sea: available/accessible/sustainable source of water The only available/accessible/reliable/sustainable source of clean or cleanable water to be dependent on as permanent solution to the problem of repeating drought in Urumia Lake is Caspian Sea in a 320 km long distance. The water quality of Caspian Sea is suitable for this purpose: its salinity range is just 1.2% (one third of the free ocean waters) and therefore would not increase the salinity of the Urumia Lake.

18 18 Fig.17 An 8 to 12 mm slice of Caspian Sea water per year can stabilize Urumia Lake Table 1 compares the two lakes in various aspects. Caspian Sea is like an elder sister to the Urumia Lake. Ratios in surface area, water volume and depth prove this fact. 15 km3 of water necessary for emergency rescuing of Urumia Lake from current crisis is just 0.015% of Caspian Sea water volume. Transfer of this quantity of water will decrease the Caspian Sea level by only 4 cm. Transfer of another 15 km3 of Caspian Sea water, which can restore the ecological level in Urumia Lake, decreases its surface level by another extra 4 cm. For the permanence of Urumia Lake's volume and level, 2.6 to 4.2 km3/year of Caspian Sea water equal to a layer thickness of 0.8cm to 1.2cm per year will be necessary and enough (Fig.17). This withdrawal will not harm the Caspian Sea, but in contrary will help it. The water level of Caspian Sea has been increasing in recent years to a dangerous level, treating numerous coastal cities in Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran. Many coastal towns like Sari in Mazandaran province of Iran, is under treat of sinking into the Caspian Sea, therefore any attempt to lower the water level is welcomed by countries around the sea (Panin 2005). It is predicted that the rise of water level following global warming will continue even in the future. Comparative analysis of surface level fluctuations between Urumia Lake and Caspian Sea during showed a significant correlation (Vaziri 1998). This is probably because the basins of the two lakes geographically overlap. But current situation disproves this finding while the Caspian Sea level has stayed high, the Urumia lake level still decreases. (Dating Caspian Sea )

19 19 Table 1: Comparison of the two lakes; Caspian and Urumia (Tolkatchev 2004, Mansimov 1994) Caspian Sea water should be lifted up in two steps: In the first step it must be lifted up by pump(s) near Lavandvil town from sea level at 28m a.s.l. to +1600m a.s.l. for passing over the Alborz mountain chains. When the water is lifted up to this level near Neyaraq village, it will be let run by gravity downward to a level of +1400m a.s.l. In the second step, once again it should be lifted up by pump(s) from a.s.l. near Ardabil to a level of +2000m a.s.l. to overcome the next mountainous obstacle near Nir to be then released again downward through an approx km long channel/river bed flowing by gravity force in south of Sarab city and north of Tabriz and through it until its final destination, Urumia Lake. 6: The layout and components of the proposed project: The greatest obstacle for the transfer of water from Caspian Sea to Urumia Lake is the 1316 meters height difference between the two water bodies. The uneven geography and mountainous nature of the ca. 320 kilometers long distance between the two lakes is another difficulty which must be overcome. In fact the height difference between the origin and destination is bigger than the nominal 1316 meters, because there is a mountainous hindrance on the path between Ardabil and Nir, which also should be overcome. As per Fig.18/2, the total height for pumping is ca. (1600m+600m=) 2200m. The average amount of water proposed to be transferred annually form Caspian Sea to Urumia Lake is min 3.6 km3 (during 10 months of the year) and max 4.3 km3 (all year round). 2 months of the year coincide with the rainiest period of the year and natural discharge of water from rivers to the lake. Having data from this wet period, will help to compute the exact amount of hydrological budget excess or surplus and administration of the water quantity to be transferred from Caspian Sea.

20 Fig.18/1 Geographical layout of the proposal 20

21 Fig. 18/2 Geographical layout of the proposal 21

22 22 The whole proposed water transfer system from Caspian Sea to Urumia Lake as illustrated in Fig. 18/1 and 18/2 will be described briefly in the terms of axis and distances in between them (covered areas): Axis 1: Here is the beginning of the water transfer system in the shore of Caspian Sea, near Lavandvil, where the water is sucked by pump(s) after passing through a filtering system (intensive membrane technology) to remove the eventual harmful biota of Caspian Sea (Badescu, Cathcart 2008); however survival of Caspian Sea biota in high saline water of Urumia Lake is nearly impossible and they will immediately be converted in high saline environment to lifeless and harmless organic materials. In this geographical location, Alborz mountain chain between mainland Iran and Caspian Sea is narrowest and topography most suitable for the construction of pipe(s) line system and the related installations and constructions. Distance between axis 1 and 2; (Area: I): The distance between these two axes is ca. 12 kilometers with a height difference of ca. 1650m that should be overcome by pumping technology. The quantity of water to be pumped is 110 to 140m3/s which can be done by one big pump or several smaller pumps arranged in parallel position. However manufacturing of pumps to work by a head of 1650 meter and capacity of the above mentioned quantity is not impossible but several pumps with lower heads arranged in serial/parallel order is more practical and economically feasible. With reference to a newly built pumped storage electrical plant in Siah- Bishe in the north of Iran and other similar projects, a stepwise arrangement of 3 series of smaller pump(s), each overcoming 550 meter height, seems to be most practical. As smaller pumps and a bundle of steel pipes are more practical, with corrosion resistant inner lining, arranged parallel over the ground and along the perpendicular valley to the coastal line instead of graving underground, seems to be economical and easier to construct. The suitable topography of the path makes the costly tunnel(s) unnecessary. The over-capacity of pumping system, after containment of the crisis and restoration of Urumia Lake, can be used as a parallel pumped/storage hydroelectricity generating unit similar to that of Siah- Bishe plant in the north of Iran (Siah Bishe pumped storage project). In this case the parallel valley next to the pipe line seems to be suitable for construction of the upper dam with proportionate volume (Fig.19).

23 23 Fig. 19 Schematic layout of transferring sea water over Alborz coastal mountains Distance between axis 2 and 3; (Area: II): In this part of the water transferring system which begins near Neyaraq, the water volume pumped up to the level of 1600m a.s.l. will continue its path toward Urumia Lake, flowing downwardly by gravity force through a 45 km long open channel (as per Fig.20; calculated approximately according to the manning formula) to a point near south of Ardabil City. The area II is suitable for the establishment of fishery industries for the Caspian Sea species. Fig. 20 Shape and dimensions of the open channels for Caspian Sea water transfer

24 24 Axis 3: In this location, where the first channel terminates and second pumping system is located, an emergency pond(s) with a total capacity of circa million m3 must be provided. The function of this emergency pond capacity is temporary deposition of the flowing volume of water in the first piece of channel (between axis 2 and 3) in the case of emergency shot down of the pumping system and halting in forwarding the inflowing volume of water. Another function of this pond is emergency discharge of the pipe(s) water contents between levels +1400m a.s.l. and +2000m a.s.l (between axis 3 and 4). In such an emergency situation, the whole pumping system will be automatically stopped first and no more volume of water will enter the channel and the existing amount of water in the system will be provisionally discharged into the emergency pond(s) until the system starts its function again and water transfer system restores to its normal regime. Distance between axis 3 and 4; (Area: III): In this section, once again, arriving sea water should be lifted up from level 1400m a.s.l. to the level 2000m a.s.l. to overcome the 600m high mountainous hindrance near Nir, which is similar to the first pumping system in capacity but less in vertical head. The horizontal distance can vary from 5 to 30 kilometers depending on the most feasible, economic and engineering alternative. The capacity, number of pumps and the diameter of pipe(s) in parallel and/or serial arrangements might follow similar pattern as the first pumping section (between axis 1 and 2) mentioned earlier. Distance between axis 4 and 5; (Area: IV): Water pumped to the elevation 2000m a.s.l. now will run 400m downwardly by the gravity force to a level of 1600m a.s.l. In this section, according to the specification of the previous one, there are two alternatives: long or short path as per Fig.18/1 and 18/ 2. According to the alternative 2, there is a possibility to utilize the water velocity (2.4 to 3.1m/s) to generate electricity by installing proper turbine(s) for recovery of portion of the electrical energy consumed by the pump(s). For this purpose, instead of an open channel, a pipe line might be preferred. Axis 5: As mentioned above, in this location an electric generating turbine station may be installed to recover part of the consumed electric energy by the pumps in the pumping stations between axis 3 and 4. Distance between axis 5 and 7; (Area: V, VI and VII): The main river of the region, Aji Chay, begins in this area and creates a very good opportunity for a natural path for Caspian Sea water to flow downwardly by gravity force in a parallel channel with the river until Urumia Lake (Fig.21). The valley of Aji Chay, with a length of ca. 120 kilometers, passes through a mountainous area before entering the Urumia Lake. The specification of the open channel proposed for this section is shown in the Fig.18/1 and 18/2. The area between axis 5 and 6 is suitable for the establishment of fishery aqua industries and related installations for the production of Caspian Sea fish species: enough land, plenty of Caspian Sea water, large population which is

25 25 historically familiar with the seasonal fishing in Caspian Sea and experienced in the aquaculture industries and etc are among the favorable conditions. Water borrowed for these activities from the bypassing sea water transferring channel, will be returned back after being used. Fig. 21 Fishery industries using Caspian Sea water Aji River valley widen and its water gets saltier by passing through the salt mines near Tabriz city; therefore it can also be used directly for further transferring of Caspian Sea water in the final part before joining the lake. In this case there will be a need for some modifications in the valley to remove eventual physical hindrances to facilitate the Caspian Sea water flow. This opportunity can reduce the total length of the built channel between axis 6 and 7, by approximately 70 to 100 kilometers. The Fig. 22 shows Aji River in a wet and rainy period of the year near Tabriz. Fig. 22 Aji River near Tabriz City in a rainy period

26 26 Axis 7: (Area: VII and VIII): There are two large coastal areas in the east (area VII: ~ hectares) and the south (area VIII: ~ hectares) of the lake which will function as an emergency space/area (ca km2, including the lake, in area, and 8 to 16 km3 in total volume) to room an eventual over- flooding of the lake (similar to the situation in years as per Fig.6), an extremely exceptional case when the surface level increases by 1-2 meters over the lake's ecological level ( m a.s.l.). Industrial production of Artemia Urmiana in saline ponds arranged in the southern and eastern coastal areas: an industrial business which includes harvesting, processing and packing of cyst and matured Artemia biomass with tremendous opportunities for employment and incomes for the neighboring population centers (towns and villages). In these two vast areas, beside halophyte agriculture and artemia related industries and activities, there is a unique opportunity to exploit the newly emerging clean/green technological possibility for the generation of electrical energy i.e. osmotic power technique. The Caspian Sea water alone or in the mixture with the fresh water from local rivers can be used as the fresh water input. The idea will be described later in the section: Benefits. Distance between axis 7 and 8; (Area: IX): The northern and western coast of the lake is very suitable for the building of recreational and/or housing agglomeration and complexes. The only limitation can be the fresh water shortages. The osmotic declinators can ease this constraint. The high pressurized pipe line providing pressurized Caspian Sea water around the lake can support the individual units of osmotic declinators. This might be done centrally too, by a separate pipe line for the carrying and distributing of fresh water from a main and central osmotic desalination plant in the east coast of the lake. The saline waste water of these desalination units would be discharged directly into the lake. Even the human sewage from these housing and recreational agglomerations can be discharged into the lake as nutritional additives for the Lake's biota stock and food chain after suitable and proper processing and disinfection. The sea water transference from Caspian Sea to Urumia Lake with an average speed of 2 m/s will take ca hours to reach the destination; mostly through open channels. By different means, the severely needed oxygen and carbon dioxide for the bio-ecology of the lake can be added to the Caspian Sea water, for example, by aeration through artificial waterfalls provided on the channel passageway wherever topographically possible. 7: A simple cost and Benefit analysis: 7.1: Costs: The proposed project for the transfer of Caspian Sea water to Urumia Lake from its functional nature consists of two different components: -Component "a": pump lifting of the water to a total height of 2200m and a quantity of ca.145m 3 /s -Component "b": downwards flowing of this quantity of Caspian Sea water in a built open channel and/or pipe(s) with an approximate length of ca. 240 km.

27 27 In order to have a very simple estimation of the costs, a comparison with a project currently under construction in Iran with several typical similarities i.e. Siah Bishe pumped storage plant in Mazandaran province, can be very helpful. We can assume that half of the cost in the Siah Bishe project belongs to the pumping and construction of the shaft/tunnel systems with a head of 520 m and a water flow of 2 100m 3 /s, i.e. 180 million USD. The other half belongs to the upper and lower dams/reservoirs, turbines and related systems. To be on the safe side, we can ignore the fact that the quantity of water to be pumped in Siah Bishe is bigger than in the case of the Urumia Lake project (200 m3/s vs. 145m3/s). Now we can estimate the costs for the component "a" in our project as follows: 2200m 180 million USD 520m = 760 million USD For the cost of the component "b", we can assume that the costs for 1 meter length of the channel as per Fig.18/1 and 18/2, is 10,000-15,000 USD (ca. 1/4 cost of 1 meter length of the deep subway tunnel construction in Tehran), thus the total cost will be: 240,000 m 10,000 or 15,000 USD = 2.4 to 3.6 billion USD. The total cost of the two components will be: a + b = 3.16 to 4.36 billion USD. If the cost for the feasibility studies, planning, technical documentation, calculations, design is assumed to be 25% of the total, then the final figure for the whole water transfer project can be estimated: 3.16 to = ca. 4 to 5.5 billion USD (Siah 2006). Siah Bishe: Project Data Upper Dam and Reservoir: Concrete Faced Rockfill Dam, Height 85 m, Crest Elevation 2, m a.s.l. Dam Volume 1.4 million m³, Reservoir live volume: 3.5 million m³ Headrace Tunnels: Two Tunnels: L = 2,015 m and 1,973 m, Ø = 5.70 m, concrete lined Surge Tanks: one for each tunnel, surge range = 87 m Tanks: 2 x 23 m deep, 20 m wide, circular concrete tank Shafts: 2 x 65 m deep, Ø 6.5 m vertical shafts, concrete lined Pressure Shafts: Two Shafts L = 2 x 760 m, Ø = 5 m, steel lined, Shaft inclination 67 Design Flow: 2 x 130 m³/s in turbine operation and 2 x 100 m³/s in pump operation Gross Head: Max m, Min m Powerhouse Cavern: L = m, W = 22.0 m, H = 42.9 m, 4 vertical Francis Turbines, Turbine rated output: 4 x 260 MW = 1,040 MW Transformer Cavern: L = 198 m, W = 14 m, 4 connecting bus-bar galleries and vertical shafts Tailrace Tunnels: 2 tunnels Ø 6.0 m, concrete lined Lower Dam and Reservoir: Concrete Faced Rockfill Dam, Height m, Crest Elevation 1, m a.s.l., Dam Volume 4.93 million m³, Reservoir live volume: 3.6 millions m³ Construction Period: Estimated Costs: 380 Million USD 7.2: Benefits: The transfer of water from Caspian Sea to Urumia Lake alongside the fulfillment of its main goal i.e. the regeneration and stabilization of Urumia Lake's hydro-ecological systems as a necessary and precautionary step to avoid occurrence of the feared disastrous salt storms and environmental catastrophe, can create tremendous number of positive and favorable chances and vast number of opportunities for an overall development and socio-economically sustainable growth in the northwestern regions and provinces of Iran. Following items are just some few examples: Investment in the large scale and commercial production of Artemia Urmiana (Fig.23): the cyst of Artemia ( MT/y; 50 to100 USD/kg) and Artemia biomass ( to MT/y; 5 USD/kg) which has large industrial use and can reach up to a several billion dollars/year business. Iran could become one of the main producers and exporters of these items; (Reveshty 2000, Stappen, 2006).