Agder Energi. God kraft. Godt klima. Solar as a distributed energy source. How will it challenge the traditional utility business?

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1 Agder Energi God kraft. Godt klima. Solar as a distributed energy source. How will it challenge the traditional utility business?

2 Players in the Traditional Electricity Sector 1. The traditional deregulated energy sector is characterized by: Large producers of electricity Transmission system operator (TSO) Distribution system operator (DSO) (provides a physical distribution service only) Supplier of energy to end-user customers (buys electricity as cheap as possible and sells as expensive as possible in a competitive market). Wholesale electricity market operated by the market operator (Norpool) Customers that can choose any electricity supplier

3 3 Traditional Business Model Large Producer Supplier TSO Market operator DSO Customer

4 Drivers for change 1. New ways of generating electricity and information technology changes the way of doing business in the electricity sector. 2. Smart grids call for new forms of distributed monitoring, control and large scale information management. 3. New services emerge; real time pricing, home services, building management, IP over the smart grid, demand- side management.

5 Trends in the Electricity Sector 1. As a result of government policy to increase the sustainability and reduce the environmental impact of generation, small-scale renewable energy sources (solar) will be stimulated. 2. This leads to development of micro grids in which more players play a role in new value constellations that are still difficult to understand.

6 Distributed Generation (DG) 1. Where small-scale energy sources are stimulated the development is known as distributed generation (DG). 2. New technology and reregulation such as DG require the electricity industry to develop new business models. 3. The power industry has to re-invent itself, much like the music industry is doing right now.

7 Players in the New Electricity Sector 1. The future energy sector is characterized by: Large producers of electricity DG solar producer Integrated service providers Transmission system operator (TSO) Distribution system operator (DSO) (provides a physical distribution service only) Supplier of energy to end-user customers (buys electricity as cheap as possible and sells as expensive as possible in a competitive market). Wholesale electricity market operated by the market operator (Norpool) Customers that can choose any electricity supplier

8 New Business Model for DG 8 Large Producer Supplier TSO Market operator DSO Micro Grid Customer DG Renewable Solar Producer Integrated service provider

9 9 New Business models The key challenge for future players in the electricity sector is to find new corresponding and competitive business models. What type of competition are we talking about?

10 Business model innovation 1. Can business model innovation contribute to the development of sustainable technologies? 2. Business model innovation is about finding new ways of creating, delivering and capturing value

11 Value chain re-enginering 1. Value chain deconstruction into new value constellation is a development taking place in many industry sectors. 2. Along with aggregation and virtual power plants, new smart grids will help make DG work for customers, utilities and grid operators. 3. An important strategic issue is the creation and analysis of new business models that cut across a variety of enterprise and market players.

12 How can players make money from DG? 1. Companies may need to: i. acquire new capabilities ii. iii. iv. secure regulatory support develop models that rely on: a) customer interaction b) commercial and energy services c) information management helping customers generate their own supply v. managing customer demand for energy vi. controlling consumption of energy within a DG network

13 Energy services needed to shift demand in peak hours (1) 1. The success of DG management requires the involvement of several different players. 2. Most important is the aggregator a supplier with many roles: i. Grouping customers and participating in the wholesale market to get the best price. ii. iii. Shifting and managing the movable loads of the costumer to hours with the best price Planning the use of DG when the investment cost is lower than the market price 3. The aggregator acts as a company that provide a bundle of services to the final customer with the objective of reducing the electricity price for them.

14 Energy services needed to shift demand in peak hours (2). 1. Second - as major player we also have the customers, who not only consume electricity but also own and maintain local DG capacity 2. The regulation policies must be in place. Currently there are regulatory measures in many countries favouring the deployment of DG. 3. Investment in DG requires a stable regulatory regime that gives a reasonable pay-back on the investment. 4. Right now such a stable regulatory regime does not yet exist in Norway.

15 Solar service business model (UK, USA, Netherlands) 1. The customer buys the service produced by the PV system rather than the PV system itself. 2. The companies that offer the services are known as solar service providers. 3. The customer agrees to place the system on the roof and to purchase electricity for a fixed period at a rate slightly below the market price with long-term guaranteed price stability. 4. The service provider owns, operates and maintains the PV system and receives the subsidies for which the system is eligible.

16 What utilities must do to keep their position 1. The rise of DG represents a significant challenge for large utilities, one that will put their current business models under severe pressure. 2. Some already feel this impact, as these systems reduce their revenue from usage-based rates. 3. It is estimated that DG profits in Germany may account for 3 billion euros by The profit from traditional centralized generation amounted to 7,5 billion euros in 2010.

17 The Role of the Traditonal Utilities 1. Utility participation in emerging solar markets presents numerous challenges for utilities. 2. Every new solar panel installed challenges the power utilities centralized generation model 3. What will be the best strategy to meet the increasing competition from DG? 4. Is it possible for the traditional utilities not to involve themselves in the new DG market??

18 Revised strategy for traditional utilities taking into account DG growth. 1. Utilities can rely on their current capabilities to begin to move toward new business models. 2. The clearest option will be in managing the supply and demand balance of DG systems. 3. Improving customer loyalty and getting to know customer needs and preference better in real time. 4. Look into integrating contracting and see what role utilities could play. Some utilities have already started this. 5. Build up new, required DG capabilities through partnerships, joint ventures and acquisitions.

19 Who will be the best owner of solar assets in the future? 1. Generation of electricity is in many countries changing from centralized production owned by utilities to DG owned by consumers. It is like going from large computers to PC. 2. Utilities often have good reasons for owing the generating facilities that supply their grids. 3. Ownership provide more control over planning, siting, operating and maintaining facilities needed to serve their customers. 4. Would it be a good strategy for large utilities to develop integrated services for the solar industry?

20 Developing Value in Solar Markets in Germany 1. In Germany 22 % or 71 GW (2011) comes from renewables. 2. Individuals own 40 %, niche players 14 %, farmers 11 %, industrial companies 9 %, financial companies 9 % and the utilities only 7 %. 3. Germany is also encouraging adding energy storage(batteries) to solar systems by including investments energy storage in their feed-in law. 4. Where are the greatest value creation in the future in DG or large utilities?

21 Strategies for the Distribution Network Company 1. The development of renewables require a large amount of DG to be connected to the existing distribution network. 2. This will require a paradigm shift in planning, operation and control of networks involving technical and commercial integration of DG into the distribution network. 3. Present distribution networks are generally operated independently of DG. 4. It is expected that with active management of the network the amount of DG that can be connected to existing networks can be increased substantially without network reinforcement.

22 What have we learned about renewable generation? 1. Renewable producer s profitability is strongly dependent on regulation 2. Renewables are sponsored by taxes, paid by all customers, including those who consume nonrenewable energy.

23 What have we learned about distributed generation? 1. Distributed generation is dependent on regulation 2. Distributed generation as a substitute to big utility business seems to be feasible only when: I. Renewable energy production is sustainable given the physical conditions of each case.

24 How can the utility add value in solar markets? 1. For utilities choosing to engage in solar markets, this means offering products and services that other market participant do not, or offering better and cheaper alternatives than others do. 2. Rather than selling energy directly to consumers, they could end up aggregating electricity across the grid, in the same way that Google aggregates content.

25 Where are we heading?? 1. Even renewables fans agree that centralized generation will not disappear, as renewable energy will need the back-up of traditional power plants. 2. The longer renewables are subsidized, allowing them to reach critical mass and become cheaper, the faster utilities will face great competition or even loss of market position.

26 Thank you! 26

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