GEOLOGICAL STORAGE OF CO 2 processes, risks and opportunities

Transcription

1 GEOLOGICAL STORAGE OF CO 2 processes, risks and opportunities Holger Ott DPG-Frühjahrstagung, Arbeitskreis Energie Berlin, 16. März 2015 Shell Global Solutions International B.V.

2 DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE Reserves: Our use of the term reserves in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term resources in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions. Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact. Resources plays: our use of the term resources plays refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation Shell, Shell group and Royal Dutch Shell are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words we, us and our are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. Subsidiaries, Shell subsidiaries and Shell companies as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as associated companies or associates and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as jointly controlled entities. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as equity-accounted investments. The term Shell interest is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest. This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, objectives, outlook, probably, project, will, seek, target, risks, goals, should and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2014 (available at and ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 13 March, Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discovery potential, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No , available on the SEC website You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling SEC DPG, März2015_sl.2

3 Outline Geological storage of CO 2 processes, risks and opportunities Motivation Subsurface processes Examples of current R&D: pore scale physics Summary DPG, März2015_sl.3

4 THE CHALLENGE Royal Dutch Shell plc, Sustainability Report 2013 ~ 858 EJ/a DPG, März2015_sl.4

5 THE CHALLENGE Royal Dutch Shell plc, Sustainability Report 2013 ~ 858 EJ/a Characteristics: Relative percentage peaks, and declines after 2040 In 2050 still 70% fossil fuels in the primary energy mix 82% 70% Two issues with fossil fuels: Fossil fuels are finite with a reach of <100 a Emission of carbon dioxide acting as greenhouse gas DPG, März2015_sl.5

6 THE CHALLENGE IPCC - DATA D. P. van Vuuren et al., Climatic Change (2011) Working Group III Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change DPG, März2015_sl.6

7 THE CARBON CYCLE Time scale for effective CO 2 storage >> residence time of CO 2 in the atmosphere Geological storage storage atmosphere athmosph. ~ 10 2 years Surface carbon cycle ~ years Geological carbon cycle ~ years DPG, März2015_sl.7

8 THE ROLE OF CCS AND BECCS Overshoot scenarios in contrast to long-term accumulating scenarios typically rely on the widespread deployment of BECCS and afforestation in the second half of the century [IPCC, 2014] overshoot Negative emissions through BECCS D. P. van Vuuren et al., Climatic Change (2011) DPG, März2015_sl.8

9 REQUIRED SCALE OF CCS 2 C limit CO 2 emission till 2050 need to be limited to 1100 Gt ~ 1/3 of carbon in total current reserves All ongoing and planned CCS projects till 2100 correspond to a volume of 9.1 Gt [Global CCS Institute, 2015] DPG, März2015_sl.9

10 İS SAFE UNDERGROUND STORAGE POSSIBLE? Underground gas storage Natural gas storage (common practice) CO 2 storage Also nature does it natural analogues Natural HC sources Natural CO 2 storage Jackson Dome Faulted anticline, onshore Gulf of Mexico 4,700 m 99% CO 2 Example: Pisgah field: Discovered by Shell around Mt CO 2 stored since 70 Ma DPG, März2015_sl.10

11 CCS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY CO 2 -neutral production of hydrocarbons Contaminated Gas Production More than half of the total gas reserves contain large amounts of CO 2 CCS is license to operate Unconventional HC Production CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery Oil and gas industry combines the necessary technologies DPG, März2015_sl.11

12 TWO SHELL CCS PROJECTS Goldeneye/Peterhead: FEEDSTOCK: Power generation (natural gas) CAPTURE CAPACITY: 1.0 Mtpa CAPTURE TYPE: Post-combustion capture RESERVOIR: Lower cretaceous sandstone at 2,500 m bsl Goldeneye Field Quest (Canada) FEEDSTOCK: Hydrogen Production (Oil sands upgrading) CO2 CAPTURE CAPACITY: 1.08 Mtpa CAPTURE METHOD: retrofit Amine PRIMARY STORAGE OPTION: onshore deep saline formations FORMATION: Cambrian Basal Sands at a depth of around 2 km Quest Canada ; ; DPG, März2015_sl.12

13 OPTIONS FOR GEOLOGICAL STORAGE deep un-mineable coal seams or CO 2 enhanced CBM depleted oil and gas reservoirs deep saline aquifers CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery IPCC, 2005 DPG, März2015_sl.13

14 CO 2 IN THE RESERVOIR DPG, März2015_sl.14

15 CO 2 IN THE RESERVOIR Anticline structure (western Iran) 1 km DPG, März2015_sl.15

16 CO 2 IN THE RESERVOIR 2 mm Anticline structure (western Iran) 1 mm 1 km DPG, März2015_sl.16

17 7 CO 2 IN THE RESERVOIR P (bar) liquid supercritical m m 2000 m CP 1000 m gas 100 m CO 2 density (kg/m 3 ) TP DPG, März2015_sl T ( C)

18 7 CO 2 IN THE RESERVOIR P (bar) liquid supercritical m m 2000 m CP 1000 m gas 100 m CO 2 density (kg/m 3 ) TP DPG, März2015_sl T ( C)

19 7 CO 2 IN THE RESERVOIR P (bar) liquid supercritical m m 2000 m CP 1000 m gas 100 m CO 2 density (kg/m 3 ) TP DPG, März2015_sl T ( C)

20 CO 2 IN THE RESERVOIR IPCC 2005 DPG, März2015_sl.20

21 PLUME MIGRATION: SWEEP EFFICIENCY Controlled by: M N SF M cap k r, nw m mq p KL c nw S W S SF SF mobility ratio Capillary number N Kg grav m Gravity number k r, w m w S W 1 Controlling: Injection pressure Migration distance Characterized region S. Berg & H. Ott, Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control (2012) Pore-space utilization DPG, März2015_sl.21

22 HOW DOES A PLUME MIGRATE? Sleipner gas field in the North Sea operated by Statoil CO 2 injection since D seismic survey DPG, März2015_sl.22

23 TWO-PHASE FLOW IN POROUS MEDIA Two-phase flow in porous media Darcy s Law: v i K k r, i m ( S i W ) p i g i S. Berg, S. Oedai & H. Ott & H. Ott et al., Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control (2013, 2015) DPG, März2015_sl.23

24 TWO-PHASE FLOW IN POROUS MEDIA 1.0 Two-phase flow in porous media Darcy s Law: v i K kr, i( S m i W ) p i g i relative phase perm. k r (1) S max,co2 S r,co2 S. Berg, S. Oedai & H. Ott & H. Ott et al., Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control (2013, 2015) DPG, März2015_sl.24 water saturation S W (1)

25 TWO-PHASE FLOW IN POROUS MEDIA Until recently knowledge of microscopic flow regimes form 2D microfluidics experiments and conceptual models Avraam & Payatakes, JFM, 1995 ganglion dynamics drop traffic flow 1.0 Lenormand JFM 1983 Snap-off relative phase perm. k r (1) Connected pathways flow DPG, März2015_sl.25 water saturation S W (1)

26 TWO-PHASE FLOW IN POROUS MEDIA 1.0 mct image of trapped CO 2 phase Iglauer et al., GRL and PRE 2010 Shell - Imperial College Grand Challenge on Clean Fossil Fuels relative phase perm. k r (1) DPG, März2015_sl.26 water saturation S W (1)

27 PORE SCALE PROCESSES: CO 2 INVASION TOMCAT beamline t=15s 1 2 Berea sandstone Recent developments: mct scanning with Spatial and temporal resolution Access to pore scale displacement processes pressure p (mbar) injected volume V ( ml) pore filling events 31 nl time t (s) Discrete filling events avalanches, bursts Time scale independent of the flow rate S. Berg, H. Ott, et al., PNAS (2013) DPG, März2015_sl.27

28 PORE SCALE PROCESSES: CLUSTER SIZES Cluster size distribution mobility and mobilization of the trapped CO 2 phase Long-term storage security nw clusters rock = transparent brine A. Georgiadis et al., Phys. Rev. E (2013) DPG, März2015_sl.28

29 PORE SCALE PROCESSES: CAPILLARY NUMBER Definition of Capillary number N micro cap mv Darcy Average Cluster Length Pa P c 1300 Pa N macro cap l cl mv KP darcy cl, av Average Capillary Pressure l cl Fast tomography Ganglia flow through viscous track force and through coalescence and breakup What controls CO 2 cluster mobility? Armstrong et al., Geophys. Res. Lett DPG, März2015_sl.29

30 COMPLEX CARBONATES H. Ott et al., Geophys. Res. Lett Complex solute transport and precipitation pattern Permeability reduction several order of magnitude Potential loss of injectivity H. Ott & S. Oedai, Geophys. Res. Lett Dissolution regimes Well bore integrity Injectivity Permeability, subsidence Controlling parameters: Pe ul D Da kl u Two-phase flow:? DPG, März2015_sl.30

31 Multi-Scale Physics Sub-Pore Scale Pore Scale Darcy Scale Field Scale Fluid interfaces Wetting properties Roughness Reactive surface Pore-scale Displacements Mechanical contacts Relative permeability Capillary pressure Core flood upscaling Pilot Full field project upscaling Clusters nm mm mm cm m m km DPG, März2015_sl.31 ms s min days days years millennia

32 TECHNICAL INNOVATION Medical CT 1980s Wellington & Vinegar Example: computerized tomography under flow conditions Micro-CT H. Ott et al., RSI (2012) Synchrotron-based micro-ct S. Berg, H. Ott et al., PNAS (2013) Long core vertical CT J. Coenen (2015) Core scale 15cm 1m core 4mm core- Pore scale Resolution Pore scale and time resolution Reservoir relevant scales 3m core- DPG, März2015_sl.32

33 SUMMARY CCS license to operate for certain upstream operations CCS and BECCS can make a difference if applied on a large scale CO 2 storage is demonstrated by nature and applied by men Safe CO 2 storage is viable for well-selected reservoirs CO 2 storage implies very interesting and multi-disciplinary R&D DPG, März2015_sl.33

34 Thank you for listening! Questions? DPG, März2015_sl.34

35 People Rock & Fluid Physics Team DPG, März2015_sl.35

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