Technology Trends in the Storage Universe

Transcription

1 Technology Trends in the Storage Universe Connected Life and Mobile Devices William Cain, PhD VP Technology, WD, a Western Digital company September 13, 2012 Currie Munce, PhD VP Research, HGST, a Western Digital company September 13, 2012

2 SAFE HARBOR Forward Looking Statements These presentations contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements concerning growth opportunities in the storage industry, including growth in units shipped, areal density and content stored, our expected financial results, our business model and financial goals and our capital allocation strategy. These forward-looking statements are based on management s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements, including the impact of continued uncertainty and volatility in global economic conditions; supply and demand conditions in the hard drive industry; uncertainties concerning the availability and cost of commodity materials and specialized product components; actions by competitors; unexpected advances in competing technologies; uncertainties related to the development and introduction of products based on new technologies and expansion into new data storage markets; business conditions and growth in the various hard drive markets; pricing trends and fluctuations in average selling prices; and compliance with regulatory conditions imposed on us by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. More information about the other risks and uncertainties that could affect our business are listed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC ) and available on the SEC s website at including our Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on August 17, 2012, to which your attention is directed. In addition, our long-term financial goals included in this presentation are based upon a variety of estimates and assumptions which may not be realized and, in addition to the risks identified above, are inherently subject to business, economic, competitive, industry, regulatory, market and financial uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. There can be no assurance that the assumptions made in preparing our long-term financial goals will prove accurate or will be achieved. The assumptions our management used as a basis for the long-term financial goals are not facts and should not be relied upon as being necessarily indicative of future results, and investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the these long-term financial goals. The forward-looking statements, including the long-term financial goals included in this presentation, speak only as of the date hereof. We do not intend, and we undertake no duty, to update these forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances; however, we may update our business outlook or long-term financial goals or any portion thereof at any time in our discretion. 2

3 KEY MESSAGES Innovating to Capture Opportunity Storage Ecosystem Evolution No single technology meets all needs Requires tiered solutions Change Creates Opportunities Innovating Expanding portfolio Hardware and software Innovation Critical to Success Deep heritage People Patents Partners 3

4 CUSTOMER PRIORITIES The Storage Hierarchy of Needs Weight Noise Robustness Power Physical Size Performance Price Capacity Reliability Availability One Technology Does Not Fit All 4 Source: John Squires Founder and VP Engineering of Conner Peripherals

5 STORAGE TIERING Performance vs. Cost 15 years ago 1.00E+00 SRAM memory 1.00E-02 storage Relative Performance 1.00E x 10x 1.00E E ,000 10,000 Source: Western Digital analysis Relative Capacity / $

6 STORAGE TIERING Performance vs. Cost Today 1.00E+00 SRAM Relative Performance 1.00E E E x Tape & HDD performance did not scale as fast as processor advancements Performance Gap 10x E ,000 10,000 Source: Western Digital analysis Relative Capacity / $

7 STORAGE TIERING Performance vs. Cost Today 1.00E+00 SRAM Relative Performance 1.00E E E-06 Tape NAND & HDD Flash performance provides did 100x not performance scale as fast for as processor random R/W advancements operations Performance Gap E ,000 10,000 Source: Western Digital analysis Relative Capacity / $

8 HDDs AND SSDs Storage Technology Basics HDD uses spin of the electron Recording Head Air gap Flash uses charge of the electron Electrode V + Floating Gate e - Electron in the magnetic media V + Gate Oxide e - Silicon 8

9 HDDs AND SSDs Inherent Cost/Performance Differences Capacity = Surface Area Density HDD SSD Head Gimbal Assembly (HGA) Diameter 2.5 or mm NAND Wafer = 250 NAND Die = 2 Terabytes Price per GB in SSD ~ $0.80 Replicated over surface of unfeatured disk by mechanical motion 200mm Slider Wafer = 80,000 Sliders = 40,000 Terabytes Price per GB in HDD ~ $0.08 HOST No mechanical motion required and parallelized for higher throughput HDD: Low $/GB through mechanical advantage NAND Flash: High performance through parallelism 9

10 STORAGE TIERING Delivering Solutions Register Cache DRAM SSD / Flash HDD Optical, Tape Capacity 10

11 Areal Density Growth William Cain, PhD VP Technology, WD, a Western Digital company September 13, 2012

12 AREAL DENSITY GROWTH Enterprise Density Growth Rates Enterprise HDD MLC NAND SLC NAND Tape HDD and NAND flash have been growing at the same rate for the past 10+ years Tape growth has been slower 12 Source: Western Digital analysis

13 AREAL DENSITY GROWTH Parallel Growth Rates HAMR/BPM/ TDMR HAMR Shingle/ PMR Areal Density (Mb/mm 2 ) 1000 Conventional PMR HDD Existing Extension Dual FG Invention 3D RRAM X-point Array Conventional FG NAND

14 AREAL DENSITY GROWTH SSD Availability Follows NAND Capability NAND Nodes (nm) GB 8GB 16GB 2Q 4Q 8Q Product announcement Consumer grade Client SSD Enterprise SSD Source: Western Digital analysis

15 Datacenter and Cloud Storage Opportunities Currie Munce, PhD VP Research, HGST, a Western Digital company September 13, 2012

16 THE NEW TIERING Applications and Storage HF Trading Big Data Analytics User Databases Database / OLTP Content Serving Cloud Gaming Cloud Computing / Virtualized Server Cloud Storage (Objects) Social Networks Big Data Storage Long-Tail Content Storage Cold Storage Archiving 16 Source: Western Digital analysis

17 THE NEW TIERING Applications and Storage HF Trading PCIe Solutions Highest performance Big Data Analytics SLC and MLC NAND SSD Best User IOPS/$, IOPS/Watt Databases SAS and FCAL choice Database / OLTP 10K Cloud and 15K SAS HDD Balances Gaming capacity and Content performance Serving Cloud Storage (Objects) Cloud Computing / Virtualized 7200 RPM SAS and SATA HDD Server Social Best mainstream $/TB value Networks Highest capacities Big Data Storage Long-Tail Content Storage Cold Storage Solutions New storage Cold class Storage Lowest $/TB and Archiving TCO 17 Source: Western Digital analysis

18 HDD INNOVATION High Capacity Mechanical Design Bigger diameter platter More platters Slower RPM 18

19 HDD INNOVATION High Capacity Mechanical Design Bigger diameter platter More platters Slower RPM 7200 RPM SATA HDD Industry s only 4TB enterprise drive with 2M hrs MTBF reliability rating Maintain design robustness Quality 19

20 HDD INNOVATION Cold Storage Replace the air with a gas, Helium, that has 1/7 th the density Reduces mechanical power dissipated in air shear Allows platters to be placed closer together enabling more capacity Air N N N N O O N N He He He Helium % savings 4 C cooler N Nitrogen Power (%) 50 Mechanical Electronics Mechanical Electronics 45% reduction in Watts/TB O He Oxygen Helium 0 Air 5 Disk He 7 Disk 20

21 HDD INNOVATION Cold Storage Replace the air with a gas, Helium, that has 1/7 th the density Reduces mechanical power dissipated in air shear Allows platters to be placed closer together enabling more capacity Air N N N N O O N N He He He Helium N Nitrogen Power (%) Innovation 23% savings 4 C cooler Mechanical Keeping the Helium Mechanical inside the drive Electronics Electronics 45% reduction in Watts/TB O He Oxygen Helium 0 Air 5 Disk He 7 Disk 21

22 SSD INNOVATION Balancing Endurance vs. Cost For datacenter applications, NAND flash write endurance is an issue Multiple product configurations are needed to optimize $/GB for anticipated write workload Over provisioning controller technology SLC Highest performance cache, logging, HF trading emlc Mixed read/write applications database/oltp, data warehousing MLC Read intensive applications media streaming, Web server, boot TLC Very low number of write cycles not applicable to compute applications, primarily used for consumer electronic devices 22

23 SSD INNOVATION Balancing Endurance vs. Cost For datacenter applications, NAND flash write endurance is an issue Multiple product configurations are needed to optimize $/GB for anticipated write workload Over provisioning controller technology MLC emlc SLC Ultrastar SSD400M Up to Mixed 400GB read/write MLC NAND applications Up to database/oltp, 7PB random writes data over warehousing life of the drive Balanced endurance & performance Read intensive applications, media streaming, Web server, Boot Ultrastar SSD400S.B Up to 400GB SLC NAND Extreme Highest endurance: performance Up to 35PB random cache, writes logging, over life HF of trading the drive Best IOPs/$; IOPs/Watt TLC Very low number of write cycles not applicable to compute applications, primarily used for consumer electronic devices 23

24 STORAGE TIERING Future Opportunities 1.00E+00 SRAM Relative Performance 1.00E E-04 MRAM Future Nonvolatile Cache Options PCIe PCM Hybrid SSD Opportunity 1.00E-06 Cold Storage Opportunity E-08 PCM = Phase Change Memory MRAM = Magnetic Random Access Memory ,000 10,000 Relative Capacity / $

25 Mobility and Personal Cloud Storage Opportunities William Cain, PhD VP Technology, WD, a Western Digital company September 13, 2012

26 CLIENT STORAGE OPPORTUNITIES Evolving Requirements for Mobility 9.5mm 5mm 26 Source: Intel and Western Digital Analysis

27 HDD INNOVATION (5 mm) Reimagining the Mobile Hard Drive 1 Disk HDD Volume Efficiency 15 Fixed-shaft motor for robust drop, vibration and pinch performance GB/cc mm 2.5" 7 mm 2.5" 5 mm 2.5" 5 mm 1.8" Full-height aluminum base enclosure for high structural rigidity and low mass Miniaturized host interface connector: 70% smaller Dual Stage Actuation (DSA) ensures performance under vibration Compact electronics leverage latest packaging technology for robust shock performance 27 Source: Western Digital analysis

28 FROM DEVICE TO SOLUTION Value-add Through Software Past File Systems Applications IO Managers & Filters Volumes & Partitions Disk Class & Filters HW Drivers Disk ASIC Hard Disk Present File Systems Applications IO Managers & Filters Volumes & Partitions Disk Class & Filters HW Drivers Disk ASIC Hard Disk Future File Systems Applications IO Managers & Filters Volumes & Partitions Disk Class & Filters HW Drivers Disk ASIC Hard Disk Research, consultation and collaboration: Helping solve customer system architecture challenges Taking an active role in defining the next phase of storage architecture evolution Moving up the stack creates value and differentiation 28

29 STORGE APPLICATIONS Multiple Storage Solutions Solutions 2 Die SSD HDD Hybrid 8+ Die SSD Applications Cost Focus Capacity Focus Capacity and Performance Performance Focus Capacity (2012/2020) 16GB/128GB 500GB/4TB 500GB/4TB 64GB/512GB Lifetime in PC < 2 years ~10 years ~10 years ~6-10 years Random Read IOPs > 100x 1x > 250x > 300x Sequential Read MB/s > 4x 1x > 4x > 5x Random Write IOPs > 10x 1x > 30x > 40x Sequential Write MB/s < 0.5x 1x 1x 2x 29 Source: Western Digital analysis

30 OPPORTUNITY Trends Enabling the Personal Cloud By 2016, we expect an average household to have 2.8 terabytes (TB) of new digital content needing some form of storage, representing a seven-fold growth between 2011 and 2016 Kbps 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 Source: Akamai Data increases 38% Bandwidth only 15% Average Connection Speed Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q Connected devices per home: 2002= = 10 G7 Countries Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States Source: Gartner Multiple devices access content from personal cloud + = Trend #1 Trend #2 Opportunity 30

31 OPPORTUNITY Trends Enabling the Personal Cloud My Net Routers Dual-Band HD Routers Up to Mbps HD media streaming Fastrack Technology Personal Wired/WiFi High Speed Free Wired Internet Moderate Speed Low Cost 3G 4G 5G Lower Speed Higher Cost Public My Book Live Personal Cloud Storage View your content anywhere Back up your files wirelessly Securely access media WD TV Live Hub Media Center Centralize your media Stream movies, shows, music Full-HD 1080P WD Apps WD Photos WD 2go WD Backup 31

32 CAPTURING THE OPPORTUNITIES Investing to Execute the Vision Annual R&D Investment E WDC STX MU SNDK 32 Source: Western Digital Analysis

33 KEY MESSAGES Innovating to Capture Opportunity Storage Ecosystem Evolution No single technology meets all needs Requires tiered solutions Change Creates Opportunities Innovating Expanding portfolio Hardware and software Innovation Critical to Success Deep heritage People Patents Partners 33

34 Thank You