RAIL FREIGHT Q SUMMARY NORTH AMERICAN RAILROADS

Transcription

1 RAIL FREIGHT Q1 215 SUMMARY NORTH AMERICAN RAILROADS June 215 Transportation Practice Oliver Wyman

2 Contents First quarter 215 financial and operating data and analysis for North American freight railroad carriers Operating ratio (OR) for Q1 215 with a comparison to Q OR two-year trend with compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for Q1 213 to Q Operating income for Q1 215 with a comparison to Q1 214 and the peak quarter 4 Operating income two-year trend with CAGR for Q1 213 to Q Q1 215 revenue with comparison to Q1 214 and the peak quarter 6 Revenue two-year trend with CAGR for Q1 213 to Q Average revenue per car Q1 215 compared to Q1 214 and the year-over-year (YOY) percentage change 8 Freight revenue per revenue ton mile (RTM) Q1 215 compared to Q1 214 and YOY percentage change 9 RTMs per employee Q1 215 compared to Q1 214 and the YOY percentage change 1 Return on invested capital for Q1 215 compared to Q Cash flow and capital expenditures for Q1 215 compared to Q Railroad stock price performance over past three years 13 Average dwell time and velocity for Q1 215 compared to Q Carloads for Q1 215 compared to Q & 16 Year-to-date FRA reportable employee and train incidents 17 Oliver Wyman 1

3 Operating ratio (1/2) Except for KCS and NS, year-over-year operating ratios decreased across the board. Also, CN has fallen even farther behind OR-wise. Operating ratio Q1 215 compared to Q Operating ratio percentage Q1 214 Q1 215 Note: KCS s operating ratio reflects the company s operations in both the US and Mexico; the company s operating ratio is adjusted by excluding items that are not directly related to the ongoing operations of the Company Sources: Industry financial reports and railroad company press releases Oliver Wyman 2

4 Operating ratio (2/2) Operating ratios have trended flat overall, with the notable exception of CP Operating ratio Two-year trend and CAGR 1 CN 2-year CAGR -.5 % Operating ratio percentage CP CSX NS BNSF UP KCS GWR FXE -2.2 %.3 %.3 % -1.1 % -.8 % -.3 %.2 % -.1 % 5 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 KCSM.6 % Note: KCS s operating ratio reflects the company s operations in both the US and Mexico; the company s operating ratio is adjusted by excluding items that are not directly related to the ongoing operations of the Company Sources: Industry financial reports and railroad company press releases Oliver Wyman 3

5 Operating income (1/2) No operating income (OI) records were set this quarter. However, everyone, save for GWR and NS, posted year-over-year gains. Operating income Q1 215 compared to Q1 214 and peak quarter 2,8 2,4 2, 2, 2,92 1,854 1,977 2,373 US dollars (millions) 1,6 1, Q , ,19 1,36 Q3 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q2 214 Q2 214 Q4 214 Q Q3 214 Q Q1 214 Q1 215 Peak quarter Note: To ensure proper comparison, financial figures for CN, CP, and FXE are converted to US dollars using the foreign exchange rates in effect on the final day of the quarter under review Note: Canadian exchange rates from the Bank of Canada; Mexican exchange rates from oanda.com Note: KCS s operating income reflects the company s operations in both the US and Mexico Sources: Industry financial reports and railroad company press releases Oliver Wyman 4

6 Operating income (2/2) For the past five quarters, operating income has generally trended upwards for all carriers, except GWR and NS, which have been flat Operating income Two-year trend and CAGR 2,5 2, CN CP CSX 2-year CAGR 3.9 % 6.8 % -.5 % US dollars (millions) 1,5 1, NS BNSF UP KCS -1.6 % 3.9 % 2.4 % 1.1 % 5 GWR FXE -.6 % 3.6 % Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Note: To ensure proper comparison, financial figures for CN, CP, and FXE are converted to US dollars using the foreign exchange rates in effect on the final day of the quarter under review Note: Canadian exchange rates from the Bank of Canada; Mexican exchange rates from oanda.com Note: KCS s operating income reflects the company s operations in both the US and Mexico Sources: Industry financial reports and railroad company press releases Oliver Wyman 5 KCSM.5 %

7 Revenue (1/2) No revenue records were set this quarter. However, everyone, save for KCS, NS, and UP, posted year-over-year gains. Revenue Q1 215 compared to Q1 214 and peak quarter 7, 6, 5,334 5,471 6,27 5,638 5,614 6,182 5, US dollars (millions) 4, 3, 2, 1, 2,123 2,443 2,529 1,19 1,313 1,388 3,12 3,27 3,244 2,689 2,567 3,42 Q3 214 Q3 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q4 214 Q2 214 Q2 214 Q4 214 Q Q3 214 Q1 214 Q1 215 Peak quarter Note: To ensure proper comparison, financial figures for CN, CP, and FXE are converted to US dollars using the foreign exchange rates in effect on the final day of the quarter under review Note: Canadian exchange rates from the Bank of Canada; Mexican exchange rates from oanda.com Note: KCS s revenue reflects the company s operations in both the US and Mexico Sources: Industry financial reports and railroad company press releases Oliver Wyman 6

8 Revenue (2/2) Revenue has been largely flat over the last two years Revenue Two-year trend and CAGR US dollars (millions) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, CN CP CSX NS BNSF UP KCS GWR FXE 2-year CAGR 2.9 % 1.4 %.3 % -.8 %.7 %.7 % 1.1 %.7 % 3.1 % Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Note: To ensure proper comparison, financial figures for CN, CP, and FXE are converted to US dollars using the foreign exchange rates in effect on the final day of the quarter under review Note: Canadian exchange rates from the Bank of Canada; Mexican exchange rates from oanda.com Note: KCS s revenue reflects the company s operations in both the US and Mexico Sources: Industry financial reports and railroad company press releases Oliver Wyman 7 KCSM 1.7 %

9 Average revenue per car The Canadian and Western carriers raised their average revenue per car, while only GWR and FXE were able to do the same further south Average revenue per car Q1 215 compared to Q1 214 Average revenue per car (US dollars) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 1,641 1, % 1,881 2,2 6.45% 1,772 1, % 1,526 1,424 2,134 2,135.5% 2,325 2, % 1,95 1, % 2.82% 16.78% 1,43 1,218 1,165 1, % 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% Year-over-year percentage change % % Q1 214 Q1 215 YOY percentage change Note: To ensure proper comparison, revenue figures for CN, CP, and FXE are converted to US dollars using the foreign exchange rates in effect on the final day of the quarter under review Note: Canadian exchange rates from the Bank of Canada; Mexican exchange rates from oanda.com Note: KCS s average revenue per car reflects the company s operations in both the US and Mexico Sources: Industry financial reports, railroad company press releases, and Oliver Wyman analysis Oliver Wyman 8

10 Freight revenue per revenue ton-mile Canada and FXE saw substantial growth while performance was mixed everywhere else Freight revenue per revenue ton-mile Q1 215 compared to Q % % 7. 3.% Revenue per RTM (US cents) % % % % % % 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% Year-over-year percentage change % -3.18% -5.%. CN CP CSX NS BNSF UP KCS FXE KCSM -1.% Q1 214 Q1 215 YOY percentage change Note: To ensure proper comparison, financial figures for CN, CP, and FXE are converted to US dollars using the foreign exchange rates in effect on the final day of the quarter under review Note: Canadian exchange rates from the Bank of Canada; Mexican exchange rates from oanda.com Note: KCS s freight revenue per revenue ton-mile figure reflect the company s operations in both the US and Mexico Sources: Industry financial reports, railroad company press releases, and Oliver Wyman analysis Oliver Wyman 9

11 Revenue ton-miles per employee CP made substantial year-over-year improvements in employee productivity, while all US carriers, particularly KCS and UP, saw sizeable declines Revenue ton-miles per employee Q1 215 compared to Q1 214 RTMs per employee (millions) % % % -.28% % % % % 6.% 4.% 2.%.% -2.% -4.% -6.% Year-over-year percentage change % -8.% % CN CP CSX NS BNSF UP KCS FXE KCSM Q1 214 Q1 215 YOY percentage change -1.% Note: KCS s revenue ton-miles per employee figure reflects the company s operations in both the US and Mexico Sources: Industry financial reports, railroad company press releases, and Oliver Wyman analysis Oliver Wyman 1

12 Return on invested capital With the exception of CN, CP, FXE, and UP, all carriers had a return on invested capital of less than ten percent this quarter Return on invested capital Q1 215 compared to Q % 15% 13.6% 14.91% 13.2% 14.79% 16.1% 13.11% 13.86% Percentage 1% 8.19% 9.3% 9.57% 9.3% 9.14% 8.56% 9.3% 6.23% 8.51% 6.8% 5.98% 5.3% 9.92% 5% % Q1 214 Q1 215 Note: KCS s return on invested capital figure reflects the company s operations in both the US and Mexico Sources: Industry financial reports, railroad company press releases, and Oliver Wyman analysis Oliver Wyman 11

13 Year-to-date cash flow and capital expenditures Continued strong capital expenditures in the West, higher expenditures at CN and CSX, and flat everywhere else Year-to-date free cash flow 215 compared to 214 1,2 Year-to-date capital expenditures 215 compared to 214 1,5 1, ,134 1,11 US dollars (millions) Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 214 Q1 215 Note: To ensure proper comparison, financial figures for CN, CP, and FXE are converted to US dollars using the foreign exchange rates in effect on the final day of the quarter under review Note: Canadian exchange rates from the Bank of Canada; Mexican exchange rates from oanda.com Note: KCS s financial figures reflect the company s operations in both the US and Mexico Sources: Industry financial reports, railroad company press releases, and Oliver Wyman analysis US dollars (millions) 1, Oliver Wyman 12

14 Railroad stock price performance Over the last three years, all carriers, save KSU, have outperformed the S&P 5 index Class 1 stock price performance index Three-year trend 3. Prior quarter ending value Current quarter ending value CNI $68.91 $ CP $ $ CSX $36.23 $33.12 Index value 1.5 GWR KSU $89.92 $96.44 $122.3 $ NSC $19.61 $ UNP $ $18.31 $2,58.9 $2, Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 S&P 5 Source: Publicly available stock price data Oliver Wyman 13

15 Average dwell time and velocity Traffic congestion appears to be easing across the Northern Tier, as BNSF, CN, and CP all lowered average dwell and raised average velocity Average dwell time Q1 215 compared to Q1 214 Average velocity Q1 215 compared to Q1 214 Hours Miles per hour (MPH) CN CP CSX NS BNSF UP KCS. CN CP CSX NS BNSF UP KCS Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 214 Q1 215 Note: Canadian Pacific has changed how it reports average car dwell and average velocity, and its performance measures are now no longer comparable to the other carriers. Average car dwell now measures the average time a freight car resides within terminal boundaries. Average velocity now measures the line-haul movement from origin to destination including terminal dwell hours Sources: Industry financial reports, Association of American Railroad data, and Oliver Wyman analysis Oliver Wyman 14

16 Carloads Total carloads plus intermodal units and general merchandise Total carloads are up for all carriers except UP, and general merchandise carloadings were up for all carriers except KCSM Total carloads plus intermodal units Q1 215 compared to Q ,5 General merchandise carloads Q1 215 compared to Q ,2 Carloads/units (thousands) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1,239 1, ,62 1,635 1,763 1,82 2,47 2,517 2,274 2, Carloads (thousands) 1, ,11 1, Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 214 Q1 215 Note: Due to a change in AAR reporting for weekly carloads, it is no longer possible to break coal carloads out for FXE Note: KCS s carload figures reflect the company s operations in both the US and Mexico Sources: Industry financial reports, AAR data, railroad company press releases, and Oliver Wyman analysis Oliver Wyman 15

17 Carloads Intermodal units and coal carloads Intermodal volumes dropped in the West thanks largely to West Coast labor issues. Coal was down overall with only BNSF and CP showing gains. Intermodal units Q1 215 compared to Q ,75 Coal carloads Q1 215 compared to Q , Units (thousands) 1,25 1, ,185 1, Carloads (thousands) Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 214 Q1 215 Note: Due to a change in AAR reporting for weekly carloads, it is no longer possible to break coal carloads out for FXE Note: KCS s carload and intermodal unit figures reflect the company s operations in both the US and Mexico Sources: Industry financial reports, AAR data, railroad company press releases, and Oliver Wyman analysis Oliver Wyman 16

18 Year-to-date FRA reportable employee and train incidents Again, GWR was best in injuries, and CP was best in train incidents. Of note, GWR was the worst in train incidents, and CP was the worst in injuries. YTD employee incidents per 2, man-hours 215 compared to 214 YTD train incidents per one million train miles 215 compared to Injuries per 2, hours Train incidents per 1,, train miles CN CP CSX NS BNSF UP KCS GWR. CN CP CSX NS BNSF UP KCS GWR Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 214 Q1 215 Note: Data for KCS and GWR are for their US operations only Source: Federal Railroad Administration Oliver Wyman 17

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