Quarterly Vehicle Fleet Statistics

Transcription

1 Quarterly Vehicle Fleet Statistics January to ch Quarter of 214 ISSN

2 Disclaimer: All reasonable endeavours are made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this report. However, the information is provided without warranties of any kind including accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for any particular purpose. The Ministry of Transport excludes liability for any loss, damage or expense, direct or indirect, and however caused, whether through negligence or other- wise, resulting from any person or organisation s use of, or reliance on, the information provided in this report. This document, and the information contained within it, can be copied, distributed, adapted and otherwise used provided that the Ministry of Transport is attributed as the source of the material the material is not misrepresented or distorted through selective use of the material images contained in the material are not copied Enquires relating to this data may be directed to the Ministry of Transport, PO Box 3175, Wellington, or by on info@transport.govt.nz For more information about vehicles and travel check out the research section of the Ministry of Transport website

3 Introduction The January-ch 214 Quarterly Fleet Report is a brief review of vehicle fleet statistics. It provides information on trends in vehicle registration patterns, vehicle fuel economy and fuel prices. This report and the accompanying data are available from the Ministry of Transport website. The 213 Fleet Statistics are also available. Table of Contents Introduction... 1 January-ch 214 Highlights... 2 Registrations... 3 Used import ages... 6 Average CO 2 emissions from light fleet registrations... 7 Emissions standards of light vehicles entering the fleet... 8 CO 2 emissions of New Zealand-new light vehicle registrations... 1 CO 2 emissions of used imported petrol light vehicle registrations CO 2 emissions of all light petrol vehicle registrations CO 2 emissions of new diesel light fleet registrations The engine size of light fleet registrations Petrol and diesel deliveries Travel Travel and fuel prices Purchase of road user charges

4 January-ch 214 Highlights Light vehicle registrations Light vehicle registrations have continued to increase. New registrations were at an all-time record level in 213, and used registration exceeded 1, for the first time since the financial crisis. The graph shows rolling 12 month registrations are still increasing. 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Light vehicle registrations (rolling average) New Used Vehicle travel Both light and heavy vehicle travel increased in the last four quarters for which there is data (October 212-tember 213) 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Travel vs same quarter a year ago Light Heavy Fuel prices Real petrol prices remain high but steady. These are real prices, converted to a December 211 basis using the consumer price index. 25 Real regular petrol price (cents) CO 2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet The CO 2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet dropped in 211 and 212 but have remained steady since. 22 CO2 g/km of light vehicles registered

5 Registrations Light vehicles Figures 1a and 1b show that registrations of new light vehicles are at very high levels and used light vehicle registrations are the highest they have been since 27. New and used vehicle registrations in the first quarter of 214 were up on the first quarter of 213 (29,73 NZ new vs 25,889 in 213, 3,33 used imports vs 22,676 in 213) so the early indications are that 214 will be up on 213. Registrations of new vehicles dropped in 28 and 29 due to the effects of the global financial crisis, but the drop was less pronounced than for used vehicles. Sales have rebounded since that time. Registrations of new light vehicles in 213 were higher than they have ever been. There were 18,9 new light vehicle registrations in 213, up from 97,4 in 212. The 27 Emissions Rule required used imports certified from January 212 to meet the Japanese 5 emissions standard, which prevented most vehicles built before 25 from being registered. This may have restricted used imports in the first half of , Figure 1a : Monthly light vehicle registrations Number of vehicles 1, 5, Month first registered in New Zealand NZ new Used imports Figure 1b : Monthly light vehicle registrations, by fuel 25, 2, Number of vehicles 15, 1, 5, Month first registered in New Zealand Petrol Diesel 3

6 Light fleet age The high number of registrations in 213 and 214 has reduced the increase in the fleet average age. 15 Figure 1c : Light fleet average age Previous MoT practice was to regard vehicles with a Warrant of Fitness (WoF) more than 6 months overdue as not being in the fleet. This was thought to better reflect the vehicles that are active. It results in a lower fleet size and lower average age. However change to a three year WoF for new vehicles and one year WoF for vehicles manufactured from 2 onwards means this approach will soon not be viable. The informnation presented in this graph is not comparable with our previous reporting. It is based on the NZTA approach of regarding vehicles not relicensed as being in the fleet for a further year, unless the owner actively deregisters them. 4

7 Buses and trucks Registrations of used buses and trucks (Figures 1c and 1d) dropped to very low levels after July 28. The 27 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule restricted imports of diesel vehicles after January 28 to those built to the Japanese 2/4 standard, which effectively prevented most vehicles built before 22 from being registered. In 21 the requirement for diesels changed to the Japanese 5 standard. There has been a slight recovery in used heavy vehicle registrations since 212, which reflects the increasing availability of stock in Japan that is again economic to import. New vehicle sales remain dominant. The 213 Fleet Statistics report provides more information on the truck and bus fleets. Figure 1d : Monthly bus registrations 15 Number of vehicles Month first registered in New Zealand Used bus New bus Figure 1e : Monthly truck registrations 1,6 Number of vehicles 1, Month first registered in New Zealand Used truck New truck 5

8 Motorcycles Motorcycle and moped registrations (Figure 1e) increased in 28, possibly in response to the higher fuel prices. Sales dropped in 29, but increased since thena. The 213 Fleet Statistics Report provides more information on the motorcycle fleet. 2, Figure 1f : Monthly motorcycle/moped registrations 1,5 Number of vehicles 1, Month first registered in New Zealand Used motor cycle New motor cycle Used import ages The decreased age of used truck and bus imports registered early in 28 was an effect of the 27 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule and the Heavy Vehicle Brakes Rule. The emissions rule restricted imports of diesel vehicles after January 28 to those built to the Japanese 2/4 standard, which effectively prevented most vehicles built before 22 from being registered. Similar standards for light vehicles prevented most light vehicles built before 2 from being registered. In January 212 the rule changed to require light petrol vehicles to have been built to the Japanese 5 standard, which effectively prevented most vehicles built before 25 from being registered. The average age of used imports dropped in 212 but is increasing in Figure 2 : Average age of used imports entering the fleet 12 1 Average age Q1 6Q1 7Q1 8Q1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 212Q1 213Q1 214Q1 Used light petrol Used light diesel Overall light Used trucks Used Buses Year and Quarter Q1=Jan, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul, Q4=Oct Dec 6

9 Average CO 2 emissions from light fleet registrations Figure 3 shows the average CO 2 emissions from light vehicles entering the fleet generally declined (due to improved reported fuel efficiency) from 26 to 212, but has leveled out since then. The average engine size of light vehicles registered has been dropping recently (see figure 9, page 14) and this has contributed to the reduction in CO 2 emissions. Figure 3 : Light vehicle registrations Average CO 2 emissions NZ New Petrol NZ New Diesel Used Petrol Average CO 2 g/km Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 Year and Quarter Q1=Jan, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul, Q4=Oct Dec 7

10 Emissions standards of light vehicles entering the fleet Under the 27 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule, all vehicles being registered in New Zealand are required to be built to a recognised emissions standard. Standards may come from Europe (Euro), Australia (ADR), Japan, or America. The following graphs show the steady improvement in the emissions standards of vehicles entering the New Zealand fleet over time. Most New Zealand-new light vehicles comply with a Euro (or ADR equivalent) standard, and most used imports comply with a Japanese standard. The 27 Emissions Rule required used imports certified from January 212 to meet the Japanese 5 emissions standard. Figure 4c shows that registrations of used imports, certified to this standard, increased to 93 percent of registrations in the January-ch quarter. 8 Figure 4a : NZ new petrol emissions regime 35 Figure 4b : NZ new diesel emissions regime 7 3 Monthly registrations Other Euro 5 Euro 4 Euro 3 or 4 Euro 3 Euro 2 Monthly registrations Other Euro 5 Euro 4 Euro 3 Euro Month of first registration Month of first registration Figure 4c : Used petrol emissions regime 14 Other Japanese pre Figure 4d : Used diesel emissions regime Monthly registrations Japanese 98 Japanese /2 Japanese 5 Monthly registrations Other Japanese pre-97 Japanese 97/99 Japan Month of first registration Month of first registration 8

11 The spreadsheet that accompanies this report provides a detailed breakdown of the Other category. Explanatory notes: Australian Design Rules (ADR) emissions standards are identical to European emissions standards, although they sometimes have different implementation dates. The two are combined and reported as European standards in the graphs above. Fewer than 1 vehicles a year are reported to comply with standards from America, so these are not broken down further in the accompanying spreadsheet. Vehicles are shown as incorrectly recorded when the fuel type did not match the emissions standard, where the vehicle was reported to meet a standard that did not exist, or where insufficient information was provided to determine the standard. The emissions standards relate to emissions that are directly harmful. There is no relationship between these standards and the CO 2 emissions described in this report. 9

12 CO 2 emissions of New Zealand-new light vehicle registrations Figure 5b shows that registrations in the segment of the fleet with lower CO 2 emissions (under 2g CO 2 /km) have increased to nearly 6% of new registrations. Protracted high fuel prices (see Figures 11a and 11b) have probably had an impact on purchasing patterns. The average results can be seen in Figure 3 on page Figure 5a : NZ new light vehicle registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven 3 Registrations per Quarter No value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km 5 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 Year and Quarter Percentage of Quarterly Registrations 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Figure 5b : Percentage of NZ new light vehicle registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven No value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km % 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 Year and Quarter Q1=Jan, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul, Q4=Oct Dec 1

13 CO 2 emissions of used imported petrol light vehicle registrations Imported used petrol vehicles had lower CO 2 emissions than New Zealand-new petrol vehicles (see Figure 3 on page 7) until mid-21. After that NZ new vehicles have been at least as efficient as used imports. Figure 6b shows that the percentage of fuel efficient used vehicles entering the fleet changed little from 25 to 28, but increased markedly in 29, possibly in response to economic circumstances. The percentage of fuel efficient used petrol vehicles registered in recent quarters is now above the previous peak level in 29. Since mid-211 importers of used vehicles appear to have imported greater numbers of small cars. This was partly in response to the emissions rule, as they are cheaper. It also reflects a change in vehicle buying patterns in Japan, where there has been a marked shift to smaller and more fuel efficient cars. To enable the CO 2 values for used vehicles to be compared with new vehicles (shown in Figures 5a and 5b on page 1), their values have been converted from Japanese warm-start test values to European cold-start values. 4 Figure 6a : Used import light petrol registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven 35 Registrations per Quarter Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km 5 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 Year and Quarter Percentage of Quarterly Registrations 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Figure 6b : Percentage of used import light petrol registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km % 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 Year and Quarter Q1=Jan, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul, Q4=Oct Dec 11

14 CO 2 emissions of all light petrol vehicle registrations Figure 7b shows that since 25 there has been a trend towards buying more fuel efficient petrol vehicles, partly as buyers are purchasing diesel sports utility vehicles (SUVs) instead of larger engined petrol vehicles. The share of registrations of light petrol vehicles under 2g CO 2 /km plateaued in 21 and 211. It increased markedly in 212 (see Figure 7b) but plateaued in Figure 7a : New and used light petrol registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven Registrations per Quarter New no value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 Year and Quarter Percentage of Quarterly Registrations 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Figure 7b : Percentage of new and used light petrol registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven New no value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km % 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 Year and Quarter Q1=Jan, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul, Q4=Oct Dec 12

15 CO 2 emissions of new diesel light fleet registrations Figure 8a shows that registrations of the least CO 2 efficient diesel vehicles (over 25g CO 2 /km) have plummeted. While registrations of diesels under 17g CO 2 /km remain limited, the proportion of these more efficient vehicles has increased again since a drop in 21. Sales of light diesel vehicles continue to be mainly light commercial vehicles (vans and utes) and SUVs. New vehicle sales are strongly seasonal, reflecting tax and business cycles. 12 Figure 8a : New light diesel registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven Registrations per Quarter New no value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 Year and Quarter 1% Figure 8b : Percentage of new light diesel registrations CO 2 emissions per km driven Percentage of Quarterly Registrations 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 5Q2 6Q2 7Q2 8Q2 9Q2 1Q2 11Q2 12Q2 13Q2 Year and Quarter New no value Over 25 g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km g/km upto 12 g/km Q1=Jan, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul, Q4=Oct Dec 13

16 The engine size of light fleet registrations The engine capacity of new petrol vehicle registrations has been trending down. The engine capacity of used petrol vehicles has hardly varied since 25, and new diesel vehicles have been steady since 29. The near static diesel engine size is probably due to the relatively larger engine sizes in commercial vehicles and possibly the slower turn over of models in the commercial sector. 3 Figure 9 : Engine size of vehicles entering the light fleet Average engine capacity (CC) Q1 6Q1 7Q1 8Q1 9Q1 1Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 Year and Quarter New petrol Used petrol New diesel Used diesel Overall Q1=Jan, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul, Q4=Oct Dec 14

17 Petrol and diesel deliveries This section of the report is one quarter behind the other data as it takes longer for the fuel data to become available. It covers the period Quarter 1 23 to Quarter Fuel deliveries have seasonal patterns, so quarterly comparisons should be made with the same quarter in other years. Petrol deliveries in Quarter 4 of 213 were similar to the corresponding quarter in 212, while diesel deliveries were up. Diesel deliveries have been increasing, while petrol has been dropping. Diesel is also used in many nontransport areas of the economy including agriculture, mining, forestry, fishing, industrial and at times electricity generation. These fuel delivery figures include those uses, and the transport/non-transport usage split is estimated by the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment. They discussed the transport/nontransport use of diesel in the Liquid Fuel Use in New Zealand report. 3 Figure 1a : Quarterly petrol deliveries Observed consumer energy (PJ) Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 3 Figure 1b : Quarterly diesel deliveries (Transport and other uses) Observed consumer energy (PJ) Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Transport Non-Transport Latest quarter 15

18 Real petrol and diesel prices 1 The prices shown in Figure 11a and 11b are December 211 prices (termed real prices), adjusted for inflation via the consumer price index. Real quarterly fuel prices were fairly flat throughout 29, but have increased since then. Real petrol prices have remained between $2.3 and $2.11/litre since 211. Real diesel prices have been more variable, ranging from $1.39 to $1.55/litre. 25 Figure 11a : Real average quarterly regular petrol price Dec 211 prices 2 Cents per litre Q1 5Q3 6Q1 6Q3 7Q1 7Q3 8Q1 8Q3 9Q1 9Q3 1Q1 1Q3 11Q1 11Q3 12Q1 12Q3 13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 Quarter 2 Figure 11b : Real average quarterly diesel price Dec 211 prices Cents per litre Q1 5Q3 6Q1 6Q3 7Q1 7Q3 8Q1 8Q3 9Q1 9Q3 1Q1 1Q3 11Q1 11Q3 12Q1 12Q3 13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 Quarter Q1=Jan, Q2=Apr Jun, Q3=Jul, Q4=Oct Dec 1 Source Statistics NZ Infoshare Economic Indicators, Group: Consumers Price Index Table: CPI Selected Quarterly Weighted Average Prices for New Zealand 16

19 CO 2 emissions of new light vehicles entering the fleet versus real fuel prices 2 Figure 12 shows the average monthly fuel efficiency of new light vehicles entering the light fleet and weekly regular petrol prices, converted to December 211 prices via the consumer price index. The continued high fuel prices since 211 may have had some impact, as the fuel efficiency of new petrol vehicles entering the fleet has improved steadily since 21. The economy of new diesel lights has improved but far less than petrol vehicles, presumably because the average engine sizes of diesel vehicles have not changed much (see Figure 9). 23 Figure 12 : Economy of new light vehicles entering the fleet vs fuel price CO2 g/km AND petrol cents/litre Dec5 Dec6 Dec7 Dec8 Dec9 Dec1 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Light petrol vehicles Light diesel vehicles Real petrol price Real diesel price 2 Source MBIE website 17

20 Travel Figure 13a shows estimates of annual national travel. Travel has remained remarkably stable since a peak in 28. It increased in late 213, reflecting the increase in the vehicle fleet and improved economic conditions. The estimates are established by analysing the odometer readings recorded at warrant of fitness (WoF) and certificate of fitness (CoF) inspections over the last year. The estimates shown in Figure 13a are for the 12 month period ending at the end of the indicated month. This data lags the report period by 6 months, as WoF and CoF inspections are needed after the end of the period being analysed in order to estimate travel. Otherwise vehicle travel would have to be projected from the previous inspection, and changes in fuel price or economic conditions would reduce the reliability of that projection. Figure 13a : Annual travel 4 km (millions) 35 3 Light VKT Heavy VKT Year ending in this quarter The significant decline in heavy vehicle travel between October 28 and December 29 was the result of the economic downturn. Heavy travel began growing again in 21 and has continued to grow. Light travel dropped in 21 and 211 and has grown since then, especially in the last two quarters analysed. 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Light Heavy All Figure 13b : Travel growth Compared with the same quarter a year ago 18

21 Travel and fuel prices Short-term demand for light vehicle travel is only slightly affected by fuel price in New Zealand. Figures 14a and 14b show the limited change in travel volume during the 28 price spike. Despite changes to fuel prices and the economic situation, light vehicle travel has hardly changed since 26. The prices shown are December 211 prices, adjusted for inflation via the consumer price index Figure 14a : Quarterly light petrol travel and real regular petrol price 25 2 km (millions) Cents/litre 2 1 Light petrol travel Real Petrol price 5 Quarter 25 2 Figure 14b : Quarterly diesel travel and real diesel price km (millions) Cents/litre 5 Light diesel travel Heavy/medium diesel travel Real Diesel price 4 2 Quarter Medium/heavy diesel vehicles have RUC licence weights of 4+ tonnes 19

22 Purchase of road user charges Drivers of vehicles with a gross vehicle mass over 3.5 tonnes, or powered by a fuel other than petrol, pay for their use of the roads through road user charges (RUC). The graph shows heavy vehicle road user charges (vehicles over 3.5 tonnes) and light vehicle road user charges (vehicles under 3.5 tonnes) distance purchases separately. All light vehicle road user charges are from diesel powered vehicles. Road user charges licences are purchased in advance so quarterly light vehicle road user charges purchases are only indicative of travel, and the Light RUC trend shown in the graph long-term trend is a more meaningful measure. It is an average of the sales for the quarter and the two preceding and two subsequent quarters, and has grown strongly in 213. Interestingly, because of their far greater numbers, light diesel vehicles travel further in aggregate than heavy vehicles, although the heavy vehicles use more fuel overall. The Road User Charges scheme was simplified in August 212, which may have resulted in short term fluctuations in the pattern of sales. 25 Figure 15 : Purchase of Road User Charges Light RUC km Total heavy RUC km 2 Light RUC trend km (millions) Quarter Q1=Jan, Q2=Apr-Jun, Q3=Jul-, Q4=Oct-Dec 2