Energy Cultures 2: Data Mining: Trends in Household and Business Energy Use

Transcription

1 Energy Cultures 2: Data Mining: Trends in Household and Business Energy Use John Williams 31 September, 214 ISBN Abstract This document summarises the major trends in energy use in New Zealand over the last 2 years or more for which data is available. The major features that the data show are: Energy efficiency in some sectors is increasing, while in others it is decreasing. Overall, the trend is positive: although we are using more energy overall, that is because there are more people and more economic output, not because we are making bad choices. (This does not take into account choices we might have made, i.e. opportunity costs) From 199 to 213 the proportion of energy used by business and households decreased, and hence the proportion of energy used for transport has increased. The major use of energy in New Zealand is for transport, which is not covered in any great depth in this report. However an important finding of this report is that it appears that is it very difficult to quantify the amount of energy used in the Transport sector for business vs. private purposes. Data gaps identified include that there are no nationally collected and validated time-series data on: transport for business purposes household energy use in any more detail than can be found in one question in the Census of Population and Dwellings (on space heating)

2 Contents List of Figures List of Tables iv v 1 Introduction Commitments to MBIE Scope of the work What is already known Changes in Energy Use The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) Summary Data sources Statistics New Zealand GDP New Zealand Census Energy Use Survey Access to unit records MBIE Fuel surveys Annual liquid fuel survey (ALFS) Delivery of Petroleum Fuels by Industry (DPFI) Ministry of Transport Other sources considered but not used EECA BRANZ Future sources: Energy Cultures Summary of data sources National energy use Macro views Total energy consumption by sector Total energy consumption by fuel Energy sources Electricity Gas Coal Oil Petrol Diesel Oil used for land transport Sectors Transport Land transport Sea and Air Industrial Residential ii

3 CONTENTS iii Unscaled Per capita Commercial Household energy use Space heating Energy efficiency in the Residential sector Business energy use Where does the diesel go? Changes in efficiency The Business sector Industries within the Business sector Freight transport Passenger transport Summary and conclusion Summary Trends by fuel Trends by sector Conclusion Questions that can be answered Data that is unavailable Overall conclusion

4 List of Figures 1.1 LMDI breakdown of business energy consumption Energy consumption by sector, Residential energy use per capita, Consumption from renewable and non-renewable energy sources, Electricity consumption by sector, Gas consumption by sector, Coal consumption by sector, Oil consumption by sector, Petrol consumption by sector, Diesel consumption by sector, Oil use within the land transport sector, Fuel use for land transport, Fuel used for coastal shipping and domestic aviation, Fuel use in the Industrial sector, Fuel use in the Residential sector, Fuel use per capita in the Residential sector, Electricity use per capita in the Residential sector, Fuel use in the Commercial sector, Fuel use in the sector, Change in energy intensity in the Residential sector, Energy use (from all sources) by sector, Energy use by industry, Energy use by sector and fuel Energy use by industry and fuel, Diesel use by sector 28 & Changes in energy intensity in the Business sector, to Changes in energy intensity in the Freight Transport sector, to Changes in energy intensity in the Passenger Transport sector, to iv

5 List of Tables 3.1 Proportion of energy used by each major sector, 199 & Proportion of energy use by Energy Cultures 2 sectors, 199 & Energy sources used for household space heating, 21, 26, Energy sources used for household space heating: 21, 26, 213 (%) Fuels used for household space heating by region, 213 (%) Diesel use by sector 28 & v

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7 Executive Summary The aim of the data mining sub-project (Work stream 1.1) is to explore existing data, so that (a) the Energy Cultures 2 project 1 does not waste public money by conducting research into questions that are already answerable; and (b) identify important gaps in knowledge that can be addressed by Energy Cultures 2, or other agencies or individual researchers. Regarding overall energy use, there are essentially two major sources of data on business and household energy use in New Zealand: what used to be known as the Energy Data File, run and published by MBIE, which uses a top-down approach, i.e. by asking producers of energy about where and to whom they distribute their products. This is a census, i.e. every energy producer provides data to the Ministry. In contrast, the Energy Use Survey (EUS), run and published by Statistics New Zealand (with major input from EECA), uses a bottom-up approach by producing population estimates for energy use for various business purposes. This is a sample survey, and hence the data obtained are estimates, subject to a margin of error. There is very little census data on energy use by households, and I have not been able to find any large sample and longitudinal data that has more detailed information. For the level of data that the Energy Cultures 2 project needs, it appears that the first Energy Cultures household survey may be the only credible source of that data, and hence it is a matter of some import to consider whether and how it could be conducted on an ongoing basis. The New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings contains very limited questions on household energy use, and there appears to be no ongoing effort by Statistics New Zealand to implement a survey paralleling the EUS, but for households. Within Transport, the two major data sources are Fleet Statistics, very detailed data on the road fleet, derived from Warrant of Fitness and Motor Vehicle Registration databases, administered by the New Zealand Transport Authority (NZTA); and the New Zealand Household Travel Survey (NZHTS), administered and published by the Ministry of Transport, using fairly large samples (5, 1,) each year. These data will be reported on in the second Data Mining report, due in the last quarter of 214. As a mirror image of the lack of data on household energy use, there appears to be no parallel of the NZHTS for businesses, or similar data collected in another way. Personally, I find this very surprising. Because of this, there appears to be no way to estimate the proportion of energy used for transport for business vs. private purposes, especially by the light passenger fleet. The best that can be done appears to be limited to variables in the Motor Vehicle Register (MVR), the database derived from motor vehicle registration and WoF check information, which records Customer Type as Business, Private or Other. There are some surprising trends, e.g. coal use seems to be declining steadily in every sector except, where it has increased about 6% relative to 199; also a close examination of electricity use shows it has been increasing (per capita) steadily over the long term, and only in the last few years (since 29) has decreased. In terms of findings about trends in household and business energy use, because I have only gained access to publicly available data, there may be very little in this report that is not already known. I have only obtained non-publicly available data with respect to Transport (the 214 MVR and 213 NZHTS), so it is only in the second report that I can present anything almost guaranteed to be new. However, the value of this report (in my view, of course) is that I have presented in a few pages information that is currently spread across several published reports and data files, that captures the major long-term trends in energy use in New Zealand. Also, I have tried to present the results in a more clear and easy to understand way. 1 vii

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9 1 Introduction In this section the reason why this report was written is explained, and the major sources of data that were mined are described. Furthermore a macro-level, supply-side view of energy use in New Zealand, based on data made available by the Energy Modelling team 1 at the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (henceforth referred to as MBIE) is given. 1.1 Commitments to MBIE Purpose of Work stream 1.1: Exploring and linking existing data sets Develop a detailed understanding of energy-related behaviours in households, small businesses and transport, drawing from existing fragmented information (datasets, past research). Focus on information needed to support realisation of improved energy efficiency. Critical step 1.1.1: Data mining to cost-effectively leverage knowledge Carry out statistical and qualitative analysis across existing data sets to generate new findings and insights. Identify gaps in the current state of knowledge that can be addressed in later research stages. 1.2 Scope of the work This document reports on Critical Step 1.1.1: Data mining to cost-effectively leverage knowledge. The goal of this work stream is expressed in one of the two research questions of the Energy Cultures 2 research programme: Considering the current pattern of energy use in New Zealand homes, small businesses and transport, where do the highest impact opportunities lie for energy savings and how can these be cost-effectively leveraged? The goal is to identify the current patterns of energy use. This report focuses on households and businesses; a subsequent report (to be delivered in Q4 214) will provide further details on the Transport sector. Within this report, pattern is interpreted to mean two things: (1) trends; and (2) differences between groups, e.g. age groups, industry sectors or geographical areas (and whether these differences also change over time). 1.3 What is already known In this section, what is already published about long-term trends in energy use in New Zealand is summarised. In this context, long term means at least two decades, i.e from 199 to the present, however most of the data available at the time of writing only covers up until the end of 211 or Changes in Energy Use The MBIE publication Changes in Energy Use: New Zealand identified some trends that are relevant for the current work. Each of these trends is defined in terms of energy intensity, which is the number of units of energy (Joules) needed to produce a given unit of output or outcome. This is, of course, simply the opposite of efficiency: if more units of energy are required to (for example) shift one tonne one kilometre, then the energy intensity of that activity has risen, and hence the efficiency has decreased. So when interpreting changes in energy intensity, bear in mind that decreasing energy intensity is a good thing. 1 See 2 Available from changes-in-energy-use 1

10 2 SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION For businesses, output was measured in terms of GDP, and for transport it is tonne-kilometres. It s not immediately obvious what the output should be for households however, so population is used, and hence intensity is the amount of energy that people consume in a given time period in their non-business and non-transport activities. If more energy is used in a particular sector, at least part of that increase will be most likely to be due to the level of activity. i.e. more production of goods and services, more tonnes of freight moved more kilometres, or more people living in a particular area. But what else might cause variation in energy used? The next section describes the approach taken by the MBIE to answer that question The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) MBIE & EECA have adopted an approach to decomposing variation in energy use, known as Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). This is an attempt to separate out the causes for changes in energy intensity into three causal factors: 1. Structure: within each economic sector there are many activities, each of which will have varying energy intensities. If one or more activities are enacted more often than others and this changes over time, it will affect the overall efficiency of the sector. For example within transport a given tonne of freight may be able to be transported by road or rail. 2. Fuel: each activity may be able to derive its required energy from more than one fuel, each of which has differing energy yields and efficiencies. Switching fuel can therefore affect overall efficiency, for example switching residential space heating from coal to electricity. 3. Efficiency: refers to the efficiency of particular activities powered by particular fuels, e.g. internal combustion engines and electrical appliances such as washing machines are becoming more fuel efficient. The basic premise of the analytical approach taken in Changes in Energy Use is that if activity, structural and fuel effects can be measured and factored out when explaining energy use, then the remaining unexplained difference (the residual ) must be due to efficiency. Figure 1.1 shows the LMDI breakdown of the business sector, as discussed in Section This figure is a reconstruction of Figure 3 from Changes in Energy Use, used here for the purposes of explaining the LMDI approach. 3 Energy change (Gross ) 1 5 Component Total Activity Structure Efficiency Switching Figure 1.1: LMDI breakdown of business energy consumption Source: We can see that the total energy used in the Business sector is (after 1994) less than Activity. This means that increases in Activity that would have lead to increased energy use have been offset by structural changes, fuel switching and gains in efficiency, as shown in the three lower lines in the figure. Specifically, we can see that by 211, if no fuel switching or structural changes had occured, and no efficiency gains made, the business sector would have used about 111 more energy than in 199, simply due to increased 3 An 8-page summary report, the data and a technical guide explaining the modelling technique are all available at med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/energy-modelling/publications/changes-in-energy-use

11 1.4. SUMMARY 3 activity (as measured by GDP). However about 6 less than that was used: around 11 less due to of efficiency gains, and nearly 5 less due to structural changes. Gains from fuel switching appear to have been negligible. Findings for the two decades ( ) of data analysed include: Energy intensity fell in most industries (i.e. efficiency increased). Industrial output rose, but there was more growth in less energy-intensive goods and services, hence overall energy consumption was somewhat offset by structural changes. This could be partly a change in consumer preferences (e.g. for a holiday vs. a new car) or partly a loss of manufacturing and other industrial capacity and capability as firms move operations offshore or change or cease entirely their domestic operations. Household energy intensities fell, perhaps due to consumer awareness of energy efficiency imperatives, and fuel substitution toward electricity. However population increases and changing lifestyle preferences, particularly for larger dwellings, have offset efficiency gains to raise overall consumption. Furthermore, fuel switching from particulate emitting fuels (coal and wood) to electricity has been encouraged by legislation and economic subsidies (especially due to EECA initiatives) and also a switch away from natural gas to electricity was attributed to increasing prices for gas. In freight transport, efficiency gains were made in rail, air and road freight, due both to increased capacity utilisation (i.e. fuller loads) as well as efficiency in other forms. Sea freight efficiency fell, and freight volumes shifted from sea to road. For passenger transport, mode shifts (primarily from private cars to domestic air) had minimal impact. 1.4 Summary In summary, before conducting any re-analysis of existing data, what was known about low-hanging fruit seems to be that for big wins in reducing GHG emissions and increasing energy resilience, the biggest reductions in fossil fuel use will come from mode shift in both freight and passenger transport, with secondary wins coming from increased efficiency (primarily from capacity utilisation) within each mode

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13 2 Data sources In this section the major sources of data employed in this report (and some that are not) are described, including some sources that were not used, with reasons why. 2.1 Statistics New Zealand Statistics New Zealand collects a vast amount of information, much of which is publicly available (in summary form) as time-series data at which has been available for many years, and also a newer service at NZ.Stat is powered by software developed by the OECD, and there are plans to make the Infoshare data available through the NZ.Stat interface also, allowing some degree of standardisation for researchers who use international data sources. Data sets and variables of particular interest for this work stream, and energy research in general, are discussed in this section GDP Individual industries are grouped into major sectors as follows. 1. a) Agriculture b) Forestry and logging c) Fishing, aquaculture and agriculture, forestry and fishing support services 2. Industrial a) Mining b) Food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing c) Textile, leather, clothing, and footwear manufacturing d) Wood and paper products manufacturing e) Printing f) Petroleum, chemical, polymer, and rubber product manufacturing g) Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing h) Metal product manufacturing i) Transport equipment, machinery and equipment manufacturing j) Furniture and other manufacturing k) Manufacturing 3. Commercial and Public Services a) Electricity, gas, water, and waste services b) Construction c) Wholesale trade Retail trade d) Accommodation and food services e) Transport, postal, and warehousing f) Information media and telecommunications g) Financial and insurance services h) Rental, hiring, and real estate services i) Ownership of owner-occupied dwellings j) Professional, scientific, and technical services k) Administrative and support services l) Local government administration m) Central government administration, defence, and public safety n) Education and training o) Health care and social assistance p) Arts and recreation services q) Other services r) Unallocated industries 5

14 6 SECTION 2. DATA SOURCES These groupings follow the ANZSIC6 (Australia and New Zealand Standardised Industrial Code, 26 edition) scheme. The top levels of this scheme are: 1. Agriculture, forestry and fishing 2. Mining 3. Manufacturing 4. Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 5. Construction 6. Wholesale Trade 7. Retail Trade 8. Accommodation and Food Services 9. Transport, Postal and Warehousing 1. Information Media and Telecommunications 11. Financial and Insurance Services 12. Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 13. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 14. Administrative and Support Services 15. Public Administration and Safety 16. Education and Training 17. Health Care and Social Assistance 18. Arts and Recreation Services 19. Other Services New Zealand Census The Census of Population and Dwellings (see is the most reliable and valid source of population-level estimates available. But because it is conducted at fairly long intervals it may be of limited use for examining trends at an annual, quarterly or finer level. Statistics New Zealand makes very detailed information on the data it collects available. A list of variables in the Census is available online 1. Variables of interest include: Fuel type used to heat dwelling 2 Household composition Number of motor vehicles Number of rooms and bedrooms Main means of travel to work And of course the demographic variables that may be used to examine differences in energy use among sub-groups, including: Age Sex Status in employment Tenure holder Tenure of household Total income Work and labour force status s at usual residence Census data is not available at the unit-record level, and Statistics New Zealand limits the type of demographic breakdowns or sub-group analysis that can be obtained in order to meet their statutory requirements to protect the privacy of citizens. So, although the Census is certainly the source of the most valid population-level estimates, researchers often find the available data limiting when they try to examine relationships and difference involving several variables Energy Use Survey The page at for stats/industry sectors/energy.aspx reveals the Statistics New Zealand stopped collecting several ongoing time series data on energy production and use around 26. Those programmes have been replaced around that time by the New Zealand Energy Use Survey 3 (EUS), which is limited to surveying energy use by businesses. The EUS surveys one of three major sectors (, Services and Industrial & trade) every year, with currently available results from: 1 If you are reading this document electronically, you can click on links to take you to the relevant web page. If you are reading this document on paper, the URI for this link is data-user-guide/variables-by-qual-level.aspx. Where URIs are short, they will be given in-text, but if they are too long they will be given in a footnote, as is the case here. 2 See information-by-variable/fuel-type-used-to-heat-dwelling.aspx for details 3

15 2.2. MBIE Industrial and trade sector sector 21 - Services sector 29 - Industrial and trade sector 28 - sector 26 - Pilot survey with manufacturing sector Hence, as at the time of writing, two data points separated by three years are available for each major sector and hence iscurrently of limited use for the purpose of examining long-term trends. However it s certainly better than nothing, and I have used some of the EUS data in this report Access to unit records Note that although unit records are not publicly available from Statistics New Zealand, they are available through the Microdata lab 4, which allows analysis of relationships between variables. However typical costs for access range from $5,-$15,, which we did not have the budget for. 2.2 MBIE MBIE gather a range of data that are useful to energy researchers. The most important data are those gathered by the Energy Modelling team 5. The Energy Information and Modelling team at MBIE provide the most useful data (for the current purposes) regarding energy use in New Zealand from a supply-side and macroeconomic point of view. Data that are publicly available 6 are used extensively in this report. Annual reports contain a wealth of information and commentary. Up until 212 the annual report was entitled the Energy Data File, but from 213 is has been renamed Energy in New Zealand. Quarterly reports are also available 7. The data in these reports are sourced by surveying energy producers, complementing Statistics New Zealand s consumer survey of (business) consumers Fuel surveys The list of possible responses to the two surveys outlined below appears to define what is possible to be known about liquid fuel use in New Zealand, as collected on an ongoing, large-sample basis by an official Government agency Annual liquid fuel survey (ALFS) The most important data gathered from a macro point of view by the MBIE are sourced by the Annual Liquid Fuel Survey (ALFS), which essentially asks each responding firm how much fuel they purchased and delivered. Fuel is categorised as: 1. Regular Petrol 2. Premium Petrol 3. Diesel 4. Bio-diesel Sources from which stocks were obtained are categorised as: 1. Oil companies 2. Truck Stops/Service Stations 3. Bio-diesel Producer Deliveries are categorised to the following economic sectors: See 6 Online, from 7 New Zealand Energy Quarterly, at

16 8 SECTION 2. DATA SOURCES 1. Agriculture 2. Fishing 3. Forestry & Logging 4. Mining 5. Commercial Transport 6. Building and Construction 7. Industrial 8. Commercial 9. Residential 1. Petrol Stations/Truck Stops 11. Marina Refuelling Stations Delivery of Petroleum Fuels by Industry (DPFI) The DPFI is run quarterly by MBIE (previously by MED, the Ministry of Economic Development) and uses very similar categories of fuel destination as does ALFS: 1. Agriculture 2. Fishing 3. Forestry and Logging 4. Mining 5. Industrial 6. Domestic Transport 7. Building and Construction 8. Commercial 9. Household 1. Independent Distributors 11. Retail Service Stations 12. Fuel Stops 13. Marina Refuelling Stations 14. National Sales 15. International Transport But it categorises petroleum fuels into a finer set of categories: 1. Regular Petrol 2. Regular/Bio-ethanol Blend 3. Premium Petrol 4. Premium/Bio-ethanol Blend 5. Diesel 6. Diesel/Bio-diesel blend 7. Light Fuel Oil 8. Heavy Fuel Oil 9. Power Station Fuel Oil 1. Aviation Gasoline 11. Jet A1 12. Lighting Kerosene 2.3 Ministry of Transport The MoT provide input into the MBIE macroeconomic models via the Vehicle Fleet Model (VFM). The MoT s two main data sources in this regard are the Motor Vehicle Register (MVR) and the WoF database. Distance travelled by vehicles is recorded directly from odometer readings taken during WoF checks. The MoT also runs the New Zealand Household Travel Survey 8, which also produces VKT estimates by mode of travel. Data from this survey will be analysed in the second Data Mining report, due in Q Other sources considered but not used EECA The Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) also provide some publicly available information, notably the Energy End-Use database, available at however there does not appear to be any time series data available through this tool, making it of very limited use for our purposes. Also, for some time plans have been under way to establish a data portal at EECA. This does not appear to have (publicly) come to fruition at the time of writing. They have collected data on uptake of energy efficient technologies, to monitor the success of their efforts, but only three data points covering less than one year (July Sept 29, Oct Dec 29 and Jan March 21) are available BRANZ The Home Energy End-use Project (HEEP) report, conducted by BRANZ in 24, estimated the following average proportions of overall energy use in dwellings (p. 9): water heating (34%) At

17 2.5. FUTURE SOURCES: ENERGY CULTURES 2 9 refrigeration (15%) space heating (12%) lighting (12%) cooking (7%) various other appliances (2%) The HEEP study was conducted from , and no comparable study seems to have been undertaken since. BRANZ are not willing to share the HEEP data, but have said they will do analyses for the Energy Cultures project, for a fee. Limitations of the study include that the overall sample size was small (4 houses), comprising: 221 in Auckland, Manukau, North Shore, Waitakere, Tauranga, Hamilton, Wellington, Upper Hutt, Lower Hutt, Porirua, Christchurch, Dunedin and Invercargill 178 from 19 area unit clusters outside those cities, with 8 1 in each cluster A sample of this size, spread over such a wide geographical area, means that it is not possible to test for statistically significant differences between individual locations, or trends over time, without aggregating over space or time. This may be possible with direct access to the data, however the Energy Cultures 2 team did not have any research questions of such urgency or importance to justify the cost of paying BRANZ to do the required analyses. 2.5 Future sources: Energy Cultures 2 Future data sources available to us include those that members of our team will be gathering: Energy Cultures 2 Household Survey Energy Cultures 2 Business Survey These data sets will be cross-sectional, so will not be able to be used to assess trends. However the Household survey will be split into two waves to compare responses over summer and winter, and contains some questions from the Energy Cultures 1 Household Survey, so that some limited longitudinal comparisons can be made, but of course two data points are not sufficient to establish a trend, let alone a long-term trend. 2.6 Summary of data sources From the forgoing, it seems clear that the only reliable and valid data that are currently available for assessing long-term trends in household and business non-transport energy use in New Zealand are those sourced from the MBIE and the EUS. To some degree, the New Zealand Census of individuals and households may be of some limited use, however none of the variables in those data sets are directly relevant for the analyses reported here. However some researchers may be interested in, for example, trends in number of rooms, number of motor vehicles and main means of travel to work (although analyses of trends in those variables is already published, and is in the expected directions, i.e. more rooms, more cars and less active and public transport).

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19 3 National energy use The source for the data in Section 3 is the MBIE data tables accompanying the publications Energy In New Zealand (pre-213 entitled New Zealand Energy Data File) and Changes in Energy Use, as discussed in Section 2.2 on page 7. At the time of writing, Energy in New Zealand has data only until the end of 211. These reports classify energy use by five major sectors, some of which are further categorised by MBIE, as follows: 1. Agriculture Forestry Fishing 2. Commercial 3. Transport 4. Residential 5. Industrial Mining Food Processing Textiles Wood, Pulp, Paper and Printing Chemicals Non-metallic Minerals Basic Metals Mechanical/Electrical Equipment Building and Construction Unallocated For the following graphs in this report, please bear in mind the following: In some cases there are very dramatic changes and it is not always clear whether this reflects a change in the real world or a methodological issue, for example a change in the way that data are collected or variables defined. Because of this it may be premature to speculate on some of these changes. The source of the data is displayed below each graph. You can click on those links to take you to the page where the data were obtained (or the data file itself), and which will usually explain the data in more detail. It s difficult to plot many series on the same graph and clearly differentiate between them using only line styles and shades of grey. Therefore colour has been used, so please either view this document electronically or print it in colour. The colours and legend key of the lines are ordered by the highest value at the last measurement, so for example one sector might be red and listed first by absolute value, but another colour and listed later when considered in terms of proportional change. 11

20 12 SECTION 3. NATIONAL ENERGY USE 3.1 Macro views Total energy consumption by sector Absolute value 2 Sector Transport Industrial Residential Commercial % Change relative to 199 (%) Sector 4% Transport 2% Commercial Industrial Residential % Figure 3.1: Energy consumption by sector, Source: energy-in-new-zealand/energy-overview-xlsx We can see from Figure 3.1 that the major users of energy in New Zealand are the Industrial and Transport sectors. For almost two decades the Industrial sector was the major user of energy, followed by Transport, however around 24 Transport overtook Industrial. This was probably due to two factors: the loss of manufacturing capability due to reduction in trade barriers and off-shoring; and the mode shift from coastal shipping and rail to road freight transport. The 28 Global Financial Crisis does not appear to have affected overall energy use in any dramatic way. From 29 onward, however, the Industrial sector has rebounded from the decline that started in 22, while the rate of increase in the Transport sector has decreased. Tables 3.1 on the facing page and 3.2 on the next page 1 summarise the relative share of overall energy use, both in the five sectors defined in the MBIE reports, and also the three sectors of the Energy Cultures 2 research programme. We can see from Table 3.1 on the facing page that the largest proportional increase in energy use has been in Transport and the sector (Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry). However we can see from Figure 3.1 that the increased energy use in the Industrial and Residential sectors appears to have stopped in recent years, while the other sectors continue to increase. Hence it seems clear that the largest potential gains in energy reduction can be found in the Transport sector (in the sense that a small proportional change will be large in absolute terms). Decreasing energy use in Transport will also have greater benefits than in any other sector because of the almost total reliance 1 Source: energy-in-new-zealand/energy-overview-xlsx

21 3.1. MACRO VIEWS 13 Sector diff. diff. (%) Industrial Transport Commercial Residential Table 3.1: Proportion of energy used by each major sector, 199 & 213 Sector diff. diff. (%) Business Transport Residential Table 3.2: Proportion of energy use by Energy Cultures 2 sectors, 199 & 213 of Transport on oil. Any reduction will benefit the nation in terms of both increased energy resilience and reduction in GHG emissions, and more so than in any other sector. It is also worth noting that the business sectors (Agriculture, Industrial and Commercial, and to a large degree Transport) dominate Residential use, i.e. business use, in 213, accounted for between 51% (if we don t count any transport as being for business purposes) and 89% (if we count the majority of transport as being for business) of total energy use. The uncertainty in these estimates is due to the fact that it is currently unknown, and perhaps at the time of writing even unknowable, what proportion of energy used for transport is due to business vs private purposes. This is one of the major data gaps identified by this report. 16. GJ per capita Figure 3.2: Residential energy use per capita, Source: energy-in-new-zealand/energy-overview-xlsx Figure 3.2 shows energy used in the residential sector scaled by population. 2 We can see an overall decline, however given the rebound during approximately , this trend should probably be interpreted with caution, because if a rebound has occurred once, it can occur again. 2 Note: 16 GJ 4,444 kwh

22 14 SECTION 3. NATIONAL ENERGY USE Total energy consumption by fuel In 198, about 91% of our electricity was generated from renewable sources; in 213 this dropped to 75%. Of our total energy consumption, however, that derived from renewable sources has increased very slightly from 3.7% in 199 to 31.2% in Absolute value Fuel Oil 2 Electricity Gas 1 Other Renewables Coal Geothermal Hydro 9% Change relative to 199 (%) Fuel Other Renewables 6% Oil 3% Geothermal Electricity % Hydro Gas 3% Coal Proportion of electricity produced from renewable sources 9% 8% 7% Proportion of energy consumed from renewable sources 32% 31% 3% 29% 28% Figure 3.3: Consumption from renewable and non-renewable energy sources, Source: Energy in New Zealand, For a detailed explanation of the quantities shown in this section, see Energy in New Zealand 214, Section E (pp ).

23 3.2. ENERGY SOURCES Energy sources In this section each individual major source of energy is considered Electricity Absolute value 4 2 Sector Industrial Residential Commercial % Change relative to 1974 (%) 4% 3% 2% 1% Sector Commercial Industrial Residential % Electrity consumption per capita in the Residential sector GJ per capita Figure 3.4: Electricity consumption by sector, Source: data/electricity.xls The most notable trend in electricity use by sector is the rather dramatic increase in electricity use within the primary sector. However this sector is the lowest consumer of electricity overall. Also note that the trend in electricity use per capita in the Residential sector has been steadily upwards until about 21. The dramatic plummet from 21 should not be over-interpreted, as previous short-term decreases have rebounded.

24 16 SECTION 3. NATIONAL ENERGY USE Gas Absolute value Sector Industrial Commercial Residential Transport Absolute value, excluding Industrial Sector Commercial Residential Transport % Change relative to 199 (%) Sector 5% Residential Commercial % 5% Industrial Transport 1% Figure 3.5: Gas consumption by sector, Source http: // The dramatic decrease in energy derived from gas in the Industrial sector from is due to the decommissioning of Methanex NZs Waitara Valley methanol production facility (Energy in New Zealand, 214, p. 7).

25 3.2. ENERGY SOURCES Coal 2 1 Absolute value Sector Industrial Commercial Residential Transport Absolute value, excluding Industrial Sector Commercial Residential Transport 8% 6% 4% 2% % Change relative to 199 (%) Sector Commercial Residential Transport Industrial % 5% % 5% 1% Change relative to 199 (%), excluding Sector Commercial Residential Transport Industrial Figure 3.6: Coal consumption by sector, Source: data/coal.xls Notes: Residential coal use has declined dramatically, while coal used in the primary sector seems to be increasing even more dramatically, albeit in an non-linear way. However 8% increase relative to 199 levels is one of the largest changes identified in this report, and cannot be attributed to mere volatility, especially considering the absolute size of the increase: about 3.

26 18 SECTION 3. NATIONAL ENERGY USE Oil 2 Absolute value Sector Transport Industrial Commercial Residential Absolute value, excluding Transport 3 Sector 2 1 Industrial Commercial Residential Change relative to 1974 (%) 1% 5% % 5% Sector Transport Residential Industrial Commercial Figure 3.7: Oil consumption by sector, Source: http: // Notes: Oil includes petrol, diesel, fuel oil, LPG and aviation fuels We can see that the largest increase in the use of oil has been in the Transport sector, both in absolute and relative terms.

27 3.2. ENERGY SOURCES Petrol Absolute value Sector Transport Commercial Industrial Residential Absolute value, excluding Transport 6 Sector 4 2 Commercial Industrial Residential Change relative to 1974 (%), excluding Residential 5% Sector % 5% Transport Commercial Industrial 1% Figure 3.8: Petrol consumption by sector, Source : Notes: The bottom panel (% change) excludes the Residential sector for clarity, as the percentage changes from year to year are not credible and the absolute volume is very small. Of the remaining sectors, all are in steep decline, but this is not because these sectors are using less oil; rather, they are switching from petrol to diesel, as can be seen in the next few pages.

28 2 SECTION 3. NATIONAL ENERGY USE Diesel 8 Absolute value Sector Transport Industrial Commercial Residential Absolute value, excluding Transport Sector Industrial Commercial Residential % Change relative to 1974 (%) 4% 3% 2% 1% % Sector Transport Industrial Commercial Residential 1% Figure 3.9: Diesel consumption by sector, Source :http: // Notes: Both and Industrial dipped from around 26 but appear to be increasing again since around 21 Industrial use has increased sharply since around 1999, but not as much as Transport. The secondbiggest proportional increase is in the sector.

29 3.2. ENERGY SOURCES Oil used for land transport Absolute value, excluding Petrol Fuel Petrol (Regular) Diesel Petrol (Premium) LPG Absolute value 9 6 Fuel Petrol Diesel % Change relative to 1974 (%) 4% 3% 2% Fuel Diesel Petrol 1% % Figure 3.1: Oil use within the land transport sector, Source: http: // Notes: Figure 3.1 shows the dramatic changes in oil used for land transport in New Zealand over the last two decades: Regular petrol has been substituted for Premium (top panel), and diesel has been substituted for petrol. But overall petrol is still used more than diesel, however the gap appears to be narrowing, as absolute volume of petrol consumed appears to be in decline since around 24.

30 22 SECTION 3. NATIONAL ENERGY USE 3.3 Sectors In Section 3.3 the same data that were presented previously are presented again, but grouped by fuel within sector. The order that sectors are discussed in this section is by their overall energy consumption, e.g. Transport uses the most energy, so it is presented first.

31 3.3. SECTORS Transport Land transport Figure 3.11 shows fuel used for land transport (road and rail); fuel used for other transport modes (sea and air) is covered in the next section. We can see the dramatic and seemingly steady and continuing increase of diesel very clearly here, especially when use of other fuels is either static or declining. Absolute value Fuel Petrol Diesel Gas Coal Change relative to 199 (%) 2% 1% % Fuel Diesel Petrol Coal Gas 1% Figure 3.11: Fuel use for land transport, Source: Energy in New Zealand, 214

32 24 SECTION 3. NATIONAL ENERGY USE Sea and Air Figure 3.12 shows fuel use for coastal shipping (Fuel Oil) and domestic aviation (all other fuels). Absolute value Fuel Jet A1 Fuel Oil Avgas Lighting Kerosene % Change relative to 1974 (%) 2% 1% % Fuel Jet A1 Fuel Oil Avgas Lighting Kerosene 1% Figure 3.12: Fuel used for coastal shipping and domestic aviation, Source: Energy in New Zealand, 214

33 3.3. SECTORS Industrial Absolute value Fuel Electricity Gas Coal Diesel Petrol % Change relative to 199 (%) 5% % 5% Fuel Diesel Electricity Coal Gas Petrol Figure 3.13: Fuel use in the Industrial sector, Source: Energy in New Zealand, 214

34 26 SECTION 3. NATIONAL ENERGY USE Residential Unscaled Absolute value Fuel Electricity Gas Coal Diesel Petrol Absolute value, excluding Electricity Fuel Gas Coal Diesel Petrol Change relative to 199 (%) 3% 2% 1% % Fuel Diesel Gas Electricity Coal Petrol 1% Figure 3.14: Fuel use in the Residential sector, Source: Energy in New Zealand, 214 Notes: The variation in petrol does not seem credible, and is probably simply a reflection of the fact that a small change in absolute terms is a large variation in proportional terms. The variation in diesel does seem more credible, however.

35 3.3. SECTORS Per capita Absolute value GJ Fuel Electricity Gas Coal Diesel Petrol Absolute value, excluding Electricity GJ Fuel Gas Coal Diesel Petrol Change relative to 199 (%) 3% 2% 1% % Fuel Diesel Gas Electricity Coal Petrol 1% Figure 3.15: Fuel use per capita in the Residential sector, Source: Energy in New Zealand, 214 The flat residential electricity demand that we often hear about, and which seems apparent in the bottom panel of Figure 3.15, upon a closer look, as shown in Figure 3.16 on the following page, seems not so simple. It appears that electricity demand per capita has actually been increasing for the last 15 years or so until 29, but has since decreased rather dramatically.

36 28 SECTION 3. NATIONAL ENERGY USE 1.75 GJ Figure 3.16: Electricity use per capita in the Residential sector, Source: Energy in New Zealand, 214

37 3.3. SECTORS Commercial Absolute value Fuel Electricity Gas Diesel Coal Petrol Absolute value, excluding Electricity Fuel Gas Diesel Coal Petrol Change relative to 199 (%) 2% 1% % Fuel Electricity Gas Coal Diesel Petrol 1% Figure 3.17: Fuel use in the Commercial sector, Source: Energy in New Zealand, 214 Notes: Similar to the variation in petrol use in the residential sector, the variation in the commercial sector seems somewhat suspect around 1994