NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS OF SOUTH AFRICA

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1 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS OF SOUTH AFRICA PO BOX 40611, ARCADIA 0007 TELEPHONES: (012) / TELEFAX: (012) WEB ADDRESS: E MAIL ADDRESS: OFFICES: 1 st FLOOR, NEDBANK PLAZA Cnr CHURCH AND BEATRIX STREETS ARCADIA, PRETORIA 0083 N8/1 (e mail) 15 th May, 2012 REPRESENTATIVES AT GENERAL MEETINGS RECIPIENTS OF NAAMSA MEDIA RELEASES Ladies and Gentlemen QUARTERLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS: MOTOR VEHICLE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY: 1 ST QUARTER 2012 ATTACHED, for information purposes, is a copy of NAAMSA s quarterly review of business conditions for the South African motor vehicle manufacturing Industry, during the first quarter of 2012, as submitted to the Director General, Department of Trade and Industry. Industry vehicle sales, export and import statistics for 1995 through 2013 have been revised and are reflected on the attachments to the submission. Key features: First Quarter 2012 Significant increase in vehicle manufacturers capital expenditure projected for Aggregate industry employment levels reflect impressive uptick rising by over 500 jobs. Industry capacity utilisation levels in all sectors remained at relatively high levels. New vehicle sales continued to register growth albeit at relatively low rates. For 2012, domestic sales will probably continue to show growth but at a more subdued rate compared to the past two years. Export sales likely to remain under pressure in the short term and over the long term will remain a function of the performance and direction of global markets Industry production figures have been adjusted downwards in light of lower expected vehicle export sales. NAAMSA OFFICES: PRETORIA 1

2 PO BOX 40611, A NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS OF SOUTH AFRICA PO BOX 40611, ARCADIA 0007 ARCADIA 0007 TELEPHONES: (012) / TELEFAX: (012) WEB ADDRESS: E MAIL ADDRESS: OFFICES: 1 st FLOOR, NEDBANK PLAZA Cnr CHURCH AND BEATRIX STREETS ARCADIA, PRETORIA th May, 2012 The Director General Mr L October Department of Trade and Industry Private Bag X84 PRETORIA 0001 Dear Sir QUARTERLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS: NEW VEHICLE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY: QUARTER ENDED 31st MARCH, 2012 NAAMSA submits the following report on business conditions in the South African new motor vehicle manufacturing industry during the first quarter of EMPLOYMENT LEVELS AND TRENDS The number of persons employed by the South African new vehicle manufacturing industry comprising the major new vehicle manufacturers and specialist commercial vehicle and bus manufacturers during the first quarter of 2012 may be set out as follows Industry Total Last pay week January, Last pay week February, Last pay week March, Industry employment levels and trends reflect employees on the payroll of vehicle manufacturers. Compared to the positions at the end of 2011, aggregate industry employment improved by 509 jobs during the first quarter of 2012 to jobs a gain of 1.8%. Two major vehicle manufacturers recruited during the first quarter, whilst employment trends at the other plants remained stable. The average monthly Industry employment number for 2011 was

3 2. NUMBER OF SHIFTS A single production shift remains the norm in the Industry. Some manufacturers operate double shifts in selected areas such as machining, press shops, paint shop operations and body shop. 3. AVAILABILITY AND PRICE TRENDS OF COMPONENTS AND RAW MATERIALS 3.1 COMPONENTS Imported Components The availability and supply of imported original equipment components, during the first quarter of 2012, improved and overall was satisfactory. Because of the interconnected nature of supply chains, the economic impact and disruption caused by events in Japan during March 2011 compounded by the mid year severe flooding in Thailand, impacted globally on automotive production and will result in multinational automotive corporations reviewing the design of their respective supply chains, especially in relation to risk. Prices of imported components in foreign currency remained stable but landed costs of components continue to be affected by exchange rate movements. Local Components During the first quarter of 2012, the availability and supply of locally produced components was reported generally as satisfactory. Ongoing relentless focus on global cost competitiveness and general cost reduction targets continues to pressurise suppliers. Higher fuel prices and electricity price increases on the back of earlier above inflation wage settlements continue to add significant risk to suppliers competitiveness. 3.2 RAW MATERIALS Imported Materials The availability of imported raw materials, where applicable, remained satisfactory. Pricing trends remain a function of exchange rate movements and commodity prices. Increases in prices of steel, natural rubber and oil based materials were noted. Local Materials Local raw material price movements were also impacted by commodity price movements. 3

4 4. UTILISATION OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY: Average motor vehicle assembly industry capacity utilisation levels, by sector and for the years/quarters indicated, may be illustrated as follows st Qtr st Qtr 2012 Range High Low Cars 81.1% 80.1% 67.7% 68.3% 59.4% 77.1% 81.6% 82.7% 100.0% 60.0% Light Commercials Medium Commercials Heavy Commercials 79.9% 87.8% 82.7% 73.9% 56.5% 68.4% 73.5% 82.8% 100.0% 52.0% 84.4% 97.9% 91.7% 89.9% 64.6% 77.2% 88.4% 85.5% 90.0% 81.0% 95.9% 95.1% 95.3% 87.6% 66.1% 77.5% 89.9% 86.3% 91.0% 82.0% On an annualised basis, Industry average capacity utilisation levels showed an improvement in 2011 relative to previous years. First quarter 2012 capacity utilisation in all the sectors remained close to record levels. 5. NEW INVESTMENT/INVESTMENT APPROVALS: 2011 ACTUAL AND 2012 PROJECTION NAAMSA reports the industry s aggregate capital expenditure on an annual basis. The aggregated data is based on Capital Expenditure details supplied by the seven major vehicle manufacturers and two truck producers. Details of actual industry capex for 2005 through 2011, in Rand millions, as well as the projection for 2012 are as follows Capital Expenditure Projection Product/Local/Content/Export Investment/ Production Facilities , Land and Buildings , Support Infrastructure (I.T., R&D, Technical, etc.) , Total , The increase in capital expenditure during 2012 may be attributed in large part to Investment Projects by manufacturers to gear up for the impending Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP). As at the end of February, 2012 the Automotive Investment Scheme, which forms part of the Automotive Production and Development Programme, had resulted in planned investments by automotive assemblers and component supplier companies of R12 billion R8.7 billion by assemblers and R3.3 billion by component companies. 4

5 6. BUSINESS CONDITIONS AND PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Business Conditions: first quarter, First quarter aggregate Industry new car sales at units recorded an improvement of units or 10.0% compared to the new cars sold during the corresponding quarter of Aggregate Industry commercial vehicle sales during the first quarter of 2012 at units recorded an increase of 347 units or a gain of 0.8% compared to the units sold during the corresponding quarter of Industry Domestic Sales Growth: Direction and Extent of Change (previous quarter s percentage changes are reflected in brackets) Qtr ended 31 March 2012 compared with previous Qtr ended 31 December 2011 Qtr ended 31 March 2012 compared with corresponding Qtr ended 31 March 2011 Passenger Cars +10.0% ( 5.1%) +8.4% (+15.8%) Light Commercial vehicles 1.6% (+4.2%) +0.4% (+13.6%) Medium Commercial vehicles +6.9% (+1.3%) +0.3% (+21.1%) Heavy Commercial vehicles +2.7% ( 12.9%) +4.8% (+7.3%) All sectors registered significantly slower growth during the first quarter of 2012 compared to the corresponding quarter in Automotive Sector Contribution to GDP The automotive Industry s contribution to South Africa s Gross Domestic Product during 2011 is estimated at 6.8% versus the figure for 2010 of 6.2%. Messrs. Econometrix (Pty) Ltd are in the process of validating the calculation / estimate and a final figure should be available during the second quarter. In 2006, the Industry s contribution of South Africa s Gross Domestic Product peaked at 7.35%. The automotive industry s contribution to GDP takes account of the value addition in the broadly defined automotive sector and covers vehicle retail, distribution and servicing, auto parts production and vehicle production (including exports). South Africa s Automotive Industry s Performance in a Global Context Global new motor vehicle production in 2011 reached a record of units (2010: units). This represents an increase of 2.5 million vehicles produced or 3.2% compared to the 77.6 million new vehicles produced during In contrast, South African vehicle production rose to vehicles in 2011 from units produced in 2010 an improvement of vehicles or 12.8%. 5

6 The following table reflects South Africa s share of Global Production %Change 2011/2010 Global Vehicle Production million million million million million million million 3.2% SA Vehicle Production million million million million million million million 12.8% SA Share of Global Production 0.79% 0.85% 0.73% 0.80% 0.61% 0.61% 0.66% The current global vehicle population exceeds one billion vehicles. The relative importance of Vehicle exports Europe and Africa: During calendar 2011, the South African Automotive Industry exported vehicles to 80 countries internationally. On a continental basis, Europe and Africa represented the major destinations with vehicles or 35.9% of total vehicles going into the Eurozone and vehicles or 24.8% of total exports destined for African countries. As illustrated by the following historical vehicle export performance figures, the year on year growth in 2011 vehicle exports into Africa was 58.6% versus 7.9% growth for Europe. Europe % Change 2012/2011 Cars % CV s % Total % Africa Cars % CV s % Total % Despite intense competition in African markets from Chinese and Indian vehicle exporters as well as second hand vehicles supplied from Japan the anticipated relatively high economic growth projections for Africa should support further growth in SA vehicle exports to African countries, whilst the recession in Europe is likely to impact negatively on export sales into that region. Brief comment on the Outlook for 2012 New vehicle sales during 2012 would remain a function of the performance of the domestic economy. On the assumption that the South African economy would grow, in real terms, by about 2.9% and taking account of the prevailing historic low interest rates, improved vehicle affordability, new model introductions and easier access for consumers to vehicle financing, as well as continued strong demand by the car rental Industry NAAMSA s projection for 2012 translated into an expected improvement of about 7.5% in domestic sales volumes for the year. Domestically, sales of commercial vehicles over the balance of the year could surprise on the upside supported by the roll out of infrastructural development projects. Export sales would remain a function of the performance and direction of global markets. Vehicle exports into Europe were likely to soften as a result of the recession and debt crisis in the Eurozone, however, projected higher exports to African countries and factoring in the contribution of Ford global compact vehicle new programme and the BMW new 3 series export programme over the balance of the year should enable the Industry to achieve export numbers similar to or slightly below those recorded in Light commercial vehicle export sales in particular should register strong growth. The standard attached schedule reflects latest projections of Industry sales, production, exports and imports. N.M.W. VERMEULEN DIRECTOR 6

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