Transitions. Population and Economic Trends for Colorado

Transcription

1 Transitions Population and Economic Trends for Colorado Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs

2 Take Aways Big Trends Impacting the State Disparate Growth Age Matters Race/Ethnicity Diversity Income Profiling Your Community Easy To Do Yourself - so that you can Spend $$ on Feasibility Studies or Implementation Plans

3 Forecasts - Trends Disparate Growth Growth in race/ethnic diversity especially at the young end. Growth in Young and Aging Growth in both high and low end service high and low wages Labor Force Changes Income Challenges Transition Decade

4 Big Picture Pop Change US 318 million, million or.7% Colorado - 5,355,000 Ranked 4 th fastest 1.6% -ND, NV, TX 8 th absolute growth 83,700 TX, CA, FL, GA, AZ, NC, WA Range in Colorado +15,000 to % to -3.5%

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9 Colorado Population by Region Source: State Demography Office

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11 Census Bureau

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13 Aging Fast and the Impacts Currently very few people over the age th lowest share of all states in US (10%) Baby Boomers Born ,340,000 Boomers in Colorado (26% of pop. in 2010) By 2030, Colorado s population 65+ will be 125% larger than it was in 2010 growing from 555,000 to 1,243,000. (just from aging) Transition age distribution from young to more US average between 2010 and State Demography Office, Census Bureau

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15 Source: State Demography Office

16 Map 65+ change

17 65+ Net Migration State Demography Office, Census Bureau

18 Aging Issues to name a few Numbers both total change and % Economy -.25 jobs created by spending per person 65+ Labor Force aging out and creating demand Housing and housing for new workers Income downward pressure Health/Disabilities Transportation usage by age, access-aride Public Finance downward pressure

19 Labor Force tightening forces Female share of the labor force peaked in 2010 at 46%. Structural labor force participation rates peaked in Growth in Leavers (exiting the labor force) will create more demand for workers. Fewer Gen X Higher un/under employment for year olds potential lack of experience. Other states experiencing same concerns. Aging around the world.

20 Household Income.its future is demographically challenged. Age distributions End of Demographic Dividend Occupational Mix high and low service More race/ethnicity diverse especially at young end but achievement gap is growing as well. Household type and size single and smaller. Youth un and under employment - Long term permanent impacts on earnings. State Demography Office

21 Demographic and Economic Profile Population Trend, Components, Age, Forecast Households Trends, Type, Size Housing Units Trend, Single vs. Multi Family, Own vs. Rent, Value The Economy Drivers, Total Trend, Labor Force, Wages

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26 Pitkin, Eagle, Summit, Grand, Jackson State Demography Office, Census Bureau

27 Central West and North West State Demography Office, Census Bureau

28 South West State Demography Office, Census Bureau

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34 Households Combination of people by age who buy or rent small, medium, large, expensive or inexpensive housing units. Consumer unit

35 Housing the container of households How many total housing units are there? What types of new units are being built and how many? How many are multi-family vs single family? How many are owned vs. rented? How many are vacant vs. occupied, and of those vacant, how many are for seasonal use? What is the median home price as well as the number of units available at different price points? What percent of the population is spending more than 30% of their income on housing?

36 Housing Units Census 2000, ACS

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38 Median Home Value

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42 The Economy Share of jobs by industry Number of sole proprietors vs. wage and salary jobs. Total job change over time and the industries driving that change. The economic drivers of the county or region. Compare to the region and state. Average wages and average wages by industry. Median household income and income distribution. What is the current forecast for job growth based on the current industry mix? What types of jobs are forecast to grow? What will those jobs pay? Who are your workers and what are their ages? Who fills the jobs in your community residents or commuters? What are the labor force trends for the state and community? Is the labor force growing or slowing down, is it aging or is it younger?

43 Colorado Total Estimated Jobs Total Jobs in 000s 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , State Demography Office

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45 Economic Driver State Demography Office

46 Western Slope 2014 Employment Compared to Pre Recession Peak State Demography Office

47 Durango Commuting

48 Considerations to the Economy Cost of Doing Business relative Broad Band Access Labor force Housing Other community services (day care, night life, other recreation, education)

49 To Ponder in My Community Can we compete for best and brightest? Maintaining Economic and Amenity Advantages What is your Age Distribution? Are we set to cope with opportunities and challenges of an aging population? Can we manage growth in high and low skill/wage service jobs high and low income. More racially/ethnically diverse. How could downward pressure on household income impact our community.

50 Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner