1 Student Loan Market Trends Is College Worth It Presenter: Kelly Savoie, Director Business Development April 2016
2 Agenda This presentation is an overview of trends in the industry and the value of a college education Factors Impacting Higher Education Independent Students on the College and Its Value Brookings: Is There a Student Loan Crisis on the Horizon? Federal Reserve Bank: Do the Benefits of College Outweigh the Cost? NCES: Baccalaureate and Beyond College Education ProCon.org: Is a College Education Worth It
3 FACTORS IMPACTING HIGHER EDUCATION
4 4 Trends Likely to Shape Student Aid Continued rising cost of attendance President s proposal on free community college Decline in availability of non-federal sources of funding Continued pressure on in state and institutional funding due to budget constraints Changes to PLUS loan eligibility and appeals process Additional clarification expected in March Flat/declining enrollment on many campuses Improving economy has resulted in a decline in people going back to school
5 5 Private Loan Trends Some lenders are offering fixed rates as good or better than PLUS loans to highly qualified graduate students Some students are seeking out private loans in order to take advantage of the loan rates Private parent loans are becoming more and more common Schools are becoming concerned about debt in the student s name Cosigner release is becoming more of a topic of conversation Death and disability discharge Families are becoming concerned about using 401K funds to pay for their child s education Some lenders have programs available for cohorts of students not eligible for federal programs Less-than- half-time students Prior term balances Students are looking for ways to refinance their loans through consolidation
6 6 Legislative / Regulatory Issues Higher Education Act (HEA) up for reauthorization Expired in October 2013; but extended on year-by-year basis 2014 & 2015: Hearings and proposals 2016: More hearings, possible legislative action Major themes of reauthorization Simplification of federal loan programs Fewer loan types, streamline interest rates & repayment options College cost and school eligibility Gainful employment and measuring school effectiveness Skin in the game accountability for federal aid Consumer protections Information and disclosures Ability to refinance loans; discharge in bankruptcy Servicing and collections requirements
7 7 College Costs Continue to Increase SOURCE: College Board Trends in College Pricing 2014.
8 8 College Costs of $3.6 Trillion on Education in 10 Years The total Postsecondary Education spend has increased by 67% over the last 10 years Source: The Total postsecondary education spend is estimated by Sallie Mae determining the full-time equivalents for both graduates and undergraduates and multiplying by the estimated total per person cost of attendance for each school type. In doing so, we utilize information from the US Department of Education, College Board, MeasureOne, National Student Clearinghouse and Company Analysis
9 9 Students Are Taking Primary Responsibility for Borrowing Proportion who borrow within families who borrow Students: 83% Parents: 28% Students signed for nearly three-quarters of the dollars borrowed Proportion of Students Who Borrowed , by Loan Type Source: Sallie Mae (with Ipsos Public Affairs); How America Pays for College, 2015
10 SOURCE: College Board Trends in Student Aid Student Loans: Growth in Federal & Private Loans Note: Nonfederal loans include loans to students from states and institutions, in addition to private loans issued by financial institutions.
11 11 Actual Graduate and Undergraduate Enrollment Through Fall 2013 YOY Variance Undergraduate -0.1% 2.0% 3.7% 4.3% 3.9% 1.6% 2.1% 1.2% 1.5% 2.8% 4.9% 7.3% 2.9% -0.1% 1.0% -1.6% Graduate 0.9% 1.9% 2.2% 2.6% 6.4% 3.2% 2.5% 1.3% 2.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.6% 2.6% -0.2% -0.7% 0.0% Total 0.0% 2.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.3% 1.8% 2.1% 1.2% 1.6% 2.8% 4.7% 6.9% 2.9% -0.1% 0.7% -1.4% In the Fall of 2013, there was a slight decrease (1.4%) in overall postsecondary enrollment after a relatively flat year prior. In the Fall of 2013, there was a decrease in undergraduate enrollment (1.6%), while graduate enrollment was flat YoY. IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (actuals through December 2013, released November 2014)
12 12 Undergraduate Enrollment Projections Actual and projected undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall In fall 2012, total undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions was 17.7 million students, an increase of 48 percent from 1990 when enrollment was 12.0 million students. The rate of growth was 10 percent between 1990 and 2000 and 37 percent between 2000 and While total enrollment increased overall between 1990 and 2012, enrollment in 2012 was nearly 2 percent lower than in Undergraduate enrollment is projected to increase from 17.7 million to 20.2 million students between 2012 and Source: National Center for Education Statistics
13 INDEPENDENT STUDIES ON THE VALUE OF COLLEGE
14 IS THERE A STUDENT LOAN CRISIS ON THE HORIZON? A STUDY BY BROOKINGS
15 15 Distribution of Debt 58% of borrowers had balances less than $10,000 in 2010, compared to 84% of borrowers in 1989 In 2010, 23% of borrowers had balances that exceeded $20,000 compared to 6% in 1989 In 2010, 7% of borrowers had balances that exceeded $50,000 compared to 2% in 1989 Brookings: Is a Student Loan Crisis on the Horizon 2014
16 16 Overview of Findings Is a Student Loan Crisis on the Horizon Review of Brookings Study 2014 On average, increases in lifetime incomes among households with student loan debt more than offset the increases in borrowing Over the last 30 years, the increase in lifetime earnings associated with earning a bachelor s degree has grown by 75%, while costs have grown by 50% In 2012, bachelor s degree recipients who took out a student loan, accumulated an average debt of $26,000, which is 20% higher than it was 10 years prior In 2011, college graduates age earned $12,000 more per year than high school graduates in the same age group and had employment rates 20% higher Media reports of students with debt in excess of $100,000 have garnered a great deal of public attention, when in actuality, only 4% of student loan balances were greater than $100,000 Brookings: Is a Student Loan Crisis on the Horizon 2014
17 17 Trends in Debt Over Time Of those households with debt, the mean debt was $5,810 in 1989 and increased to $17,916 in 2010 The share of young US households with education debt more than doubled, from 14% in 1989 to 36% in 2010 Brookings: Is a Student Loan Crisis on the Horizon 2014
18 18 Average Debt By Educational Attainment The average amount of debt for borrowers with a bachelor s degree has grown 162% since 1989 The average amount of debt for borrowers with a master s degree has grown 311% since 1989 From 2007 to 2010, the average amount of debt for borrowers with a bachelor s degree declined by 9% while those with a master s increased by 41% Brookings: Is a Student Loan Crisis on the Horizon 2014
19 19 Payment to Income Ratio The average Payment to Income ratio declined from 15% in 1992 to 7% in 2010 Average repayment term increased to 13.4 years in 2010 from 7.2 years in 1992 In 1992 the average Federal student loan rate was 8.3% but declined to 5.5% in 2010 The average monthly payment declined by 46% between 1992 and 2010 while the average monthly income increased by 24% Brookings: Is a Student Loan Crisis on the Horizon 2014
20 20 Incidence of High Payment to Income Ratios 30% 25% PTI 10%+ PTI 15%+ 20% PTI 20%+ Percentage 15% 10% 5% 0% Year Brookings: Is a Student Loan Crisis on the Horizon 2014
21 BEYOND COLLEGE RANKINGS A STUDY BY BROOKINGS
22 22 How Value-Added is Calculated Brookings: Beyond College Rankings - The Value Added Approach to Assessing 2 Year and 4 Year Schools 2015
23 23 Overview of Findings from Brooking s Report Beyond College Rankings Typical bachelor s degree holders earn $580,000 more and associate s degree holders earn $245,000 more over their careers Brookings: Beyond College Rankings - The Value Added Approach to Assessing 2 Year and 4 Year Schools 2015
24 24 Student Test Scores vs. Economic Outcomes With $103,000 in average earnings, graduates from schools of engineering earn more than any other Carnegie institutional type, according to PayScale data (followed by liberal arts and sciences) Graduates from these schools also tend to have low default rates on student loans and work in high-paying occupations Brookings: Beyond College Rankings - The Value Added Approach to Assessing 2 Year and 4 Year Schools 2015
25 25 Average Default Rates Graduates from four-year colleges in the top quintile by curriculum value earn $91,000 a year on average, $24,000 more than those in the bottom quintile Brookings: Beyond College Rankings - The Value Added Approach to Assessing 2 Year and 4 Year Schools 2015
26 26 Four-year Colleges With Highest Value-Added With Respect to Loan Repayment Brookings: Beyond College Rankings - The Value Added Approach to Assessing 2 Year and 4 Year Schools 2015
27 27 Two-year Colleges With Highest Value-Added With Respect to Loan Repayment Brookings: Beyond College Rankings - The Value Added Approach to Assessing 2 Year and 4 Year Schools 2015
28 DO THE BENEFITS OF COLLEGE OUTWEIGH THE COST? FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
29 29 Overview of Findings from Federal Reserve The average college graduate earns enough extra to recover the cost of attending most colleges in fewer than 15 years Over the past 40 years, the college earnings premium has averaged about $20,300 per year During the recession, college graduates faced unemployment rates about half as high as those for high school graduates Source: Federal Reserve Bank Current Issues in Economics and Finance Do the Benefits of College Outweigh the Cost?
30 30 College Earnings Advantage Average Annual Wages by Education (1970 to 2013) Over the past four decades, those with a bachelor s degree have tended to earn 56 percent more than high school graduates while those with an associate s degree have tended to earn 21 percent more than high school graduates Federal Reserve Bank Current Issues in Economics and Finance Do the Benefits of College Outweigh the Cost?
31 31 Average Annual Wages Compared to Opportunity Cost of Not Attending College Over the 4 year period that is typically required to earn a bachelor s degree, a student would have paid $26,000 in tuition and would have forgone nearly $96,000 in wages. The total economic cost of a bachelor s degree was $122,000. Despite entering the work force at a later age though, workers with a bachelor s degree earn over $1 million more than high school graduates during their working lives Federal Reserve Do the Benefits of College Outweigh the Costs?
32 32 Will the Benefits Cover the Costs? Subtracting the costs from benefits yields a net return on college of over $420,000 Students paying $9,000 in annual college tuition for four years can break even and begin earning additional returns in nine years When tuition reaches $45,000 per year, which covers nearly all public colleges, the costs can be recouped in 17 years For those who graduated at age 22, the investment is paid in full before age 40
33 33 Is a College Degree Really Necessary? No matter where a person starts, going to college increases the chances of moving up the economic later Graduates from the bottom 20 percent are over six times as likely to reach the top than those who don t go to college The impact is also striking for those born into the second lowest 20 percent; their chances of getting to the top are five times higher with a college degree
34 BACCALAUREATE AND BEYOND NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION STATISTICS
35 35 Overview of Findings from NCES Baccalaureate and Beyond Employment and enrollment status Eleven percent of 2007/2008 bachelor s degree recipients were combining employment while continuing their education in 2012, 6% were exclusively enrolled in school, 69% were exclusively employed, 7% were unemployed (looking for work), and 8% were out of the labor force (not looking for work). Of the 69% who were exclusively employed, 85% worked in one full-time job, 8% worked in one part-time job, and 8% had multiple jobs. Employment statistics for those who held full time jobs (not enrolled) On average, 2007/2008 bachelor degree recipients have held two jobs in the 4 years since graduation. On average, 2007/2008 bachelor degree recipients were employed for 84% of the months that elapsed between their graduation in 07/08. On average, 2007/2008 bachelor degree recipients worked an average of 41 hours and earned an average annualized salary of $52,200. Baccalaureate and Beyond
36 IS COLLEGE WORTH IT? COLLEGE EDUCATION PROCON.ORG
37 37 Correlation Between Education, Earnings and Unemployment College graduates have more and better employment opportunities College graduates are more likely to have health insurance and retirement plans 70% of college graduates had access to employer provided health insurance compared to 50% of high school graduates in 2008
38 38 Arguments for College College graduates make more money On average, a college graduate with a bachelor s degree earned $30,000 more per year than a high school graduate, or about $500,000 more over a lifetime, as of April Earning an associate's degree (a 2-year degree) was worth about $170,000 more than a high school diploma over a lifetime in The median income for families headed by a bachelor's degree holder was $100,096 in 2011 more than double what a family headed by a high school graduate would earn More and more jobs require degrees Approximately 63% of jobs will require some college education or a degree
39 39 Arguments for College Colleges allow students to explore career options 80% of college students complete internships before graduation, giving them valuable employment experience before entering the job market College education has a high return as an investment Return of 15% per year as an investment, larger than the stock market 86% of colleges graduates believe college was a good investment College exposes students to diverse people and ideas The community of people on a college campus means students are likely to make diverse friends and business connections, and, potentially, find a spouse or a mate.
40 40 Arguments Against College Student loan debt often forces college graduates to live with their parents and delay marriage, financial independence, and other adult milestones In 2013, student loan borrowers delayed retirement saving (41%), car purchases (40%), home purchases (29%), and marriage (15%) Less than 50% of women and 30% of men passed the "transition to adulthood" milestones by age 30 In 1960, 77% of women and 65% of men completed these milestones by age 30
41 41 Arguments Against College Many recent college graduates are un or under employed The unemployment rate for recent college graduates was 8.8% in February 2013, down from 10.4% in 2010, but up from 5.7% in 2007 According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 44% of recent college graduates were underemployed in Many people succeed without college degrees According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, of the 30 projected fastest growing jobs between 2010 and 2020, five do not require a high school diploma, nine require a high school diploma, four require an associate's degree, six require a bachelor's degree, and six require graduate degrees.
42 42 Arguments Against College Tuition has risen quicker than income, making it difficult for the average American to pay for college without incurring debt The average cost for a 4-year degree (including room and board) increased 130% for private schools and 131.4% for public schools from fall 1982 to fall 2012, while median family income increased 10.9% The total cost of going to college also includes the cost of missing opportunities to make money at a job The total cost of going to college means more than tuition, fees, and books; it also includes an opportunity cost which equals at least four years of missed wages and advancements from a full-time job-- about $49,000 for a 4-year degree and $20,000 for a 2-year degree.
43 IN ININ SPITE OF COST, IS COLLEGE WORTH IT? CNBC
44 44 In Spite of Cost, is College Worth it? CNBC Report of February 2015 Having a degree especially in a tough economic environment certainly makes a difference to employment and lifetime earnings prospects, experts say. Research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a high correlation between joblessness and earnings, and those with less than an associate's degree fare worse on average than workers with post-graduate credentials. However, Gallup recently partnered with Purdue to survey more than 30,000 college graduates across the country. The 2014 study arrived at a common conclusion: the name of a college or university has little to no influence on a graduate's job prospects. CNBC.com
45 45 In Spite of Cost, is College Worth It? An advanced degree could earn a worker as much as $2 million more over their lifetime than someone with a high school diploma, according to Georgetown Even having limited post-secondary education without having a formal degree can add as much as $250,000 to lifetime earnings 71 percent of recent grads that are now working full time accredit their success to internships or job experiences while in college According to Gallup's findings, where a student went to school "hardly matters at all to their current well-being, and their work lives in comparison to their experiences in college," the report said. "When it comes to finding the secret to success, it's not 'where you go,' it's 'how you do it' that makes all the difference in higher education." CNBC.com
46 CCONCLUSION FROM INDEPENDENT STUDIES
47 47 Conclusion from Independent Studies While all of the studies provide different talking points, the conclusion is the same in that the benefits of a college degree outweigh the costs College graduates tend to earn more annually than their high school counterparts Even with the increase in tuition, the payment to income ratio has remained relatively flat over the past few years 2 of the 3 sources were conducted by Federal entities, whereas the third source was conducted by an independent, nonpartisan entity.
49 The information contained in this presentation is not comprehensive, is subject to constant change, and therefore should serve only as general, background information for further investigation and study related to the subject matter and the specific factual circumstances being considered or evaluated. Nothing in this presentation constitutes or is designed to constitute legal advice. For school use only. Not to be distributed to students.