Commodity Price Outlook & Risks
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1 Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team July 15, This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected commodities as depicted from futures and options markets. Outlook. Oil spot prices are around 44 dollars sustained by a seasonal increase in demand and various supply outages. Although, futures markets continue pointing to a modest increase over the next year, uncertainty remains high. Major risk factors include sustained oil production growth and geopolitical risks coupled which macroeconomic concerns following UK s decision to leave the European Union. Gasoline prices are expected to decline throughout the winter and slightly increase in higher demand summer months, while U.S. natural gas prices are projected to rise in the coming winter and decline thereafter; both following seasonal patterns. Metal prices are expected to remain broadly unchanged following ample supply and continued slow demand. The outlook for agricultural commodity prices continues to be mixed, with corn, coffee, rice and wheat prices increasing on weather concerns, but soybean and soybean meal prices moderately decreasing. Risks. The likelihood of per-barrel prices for WTI falling below $25 in the next 12 months dropped to 2 percent from 3 percent, and the likelihood of Brent falling below $25 remained broadly unchanged at 3 percent. The likelihood of WTI and Brent oil prices rising above $6 decreased, signaling a decrease of risks. Overall uncertainty dropped from historical high levels. The likelihood of per-mmbtu U.S. natural gas prices below $2 (12 months forward) decreased to 11 percent from 14 percent, while the probability of prices rising above $3.5 increased to 16 percent from 12 percent, suggesting an upward shift in the balance of risks. For metals, the risk of copper prices falling below $1.5 a pound slightly decreased to 5 percent from 1 percent, and the probability of prices increasing above $2.75 a pound increased from 4 percent to 1 percent, signaling an upward shift in the balance of risks, in line with prospects of solid U.S. growth. The probability of gold prices falling below $9 a troy ounce decreased to 2 percent from 5 percent, while the probability of an increase beyond $1 increased to 16 percent from 11 percent last month. The likelihood of per bushel corn prices below $2.5 sharply increased, while the probability of prices increasing above $5 decreased to 2 percent from 12 percent in June. The likelihood of soybean meal prices rising above $45 a short ton decreased to 12 percent from 14 percent. Meanwhile, the likelihood of per-bushel soybean prices below $7 remained broadly unchanged at 3 percent, and the probability of an increase above $13 decreased to 1 percent from 12 percent last month. Contents. Fan charts (pages 2-3) show historical and forward futures prices (red line), with calculated confidence intervals of +/- 2 standard deviations (in purple/blue). Confidence intervals are derived from prices of options on July 13, 216. Likelihoods of spot prices rising/falling from specified price thresholds occurring at the 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month forward (or closest available) horizons for each commodity are shown in tabular form (pages 4-5). In addition to price thresholds, the probability of each commodity spot price rising/falling by a certain percentage is shown (pages 6-7). Relevant contract specifications for each commodity are also shown (page 8). 1
2 Selected Commodities Market Outlook and Risks WTI Crude Oil (U.S. dollars a barrel) 12 Brent Crude Oil (U.S. dollars a barrel) Natural Gas (U.S. dollars a MMBtu) 8 Gasoline (U.S. cents a gallon) Copper (U.S. cents a pound) Gold (U.S. dollars a troy ounce)
3 Selected Commodities Market Outlook and Risks (concluded) Corn (U.S. cents a bushel) 9 Coffee (U.S. cents a pound) Rough Rice (U.S. cents a hundredweight) 2 Wheat (U.S. cents a bushel) Soybeans (U.S. cents a bushel) 19 Soybean Meal (U.S. dollars a short ton)
4 WTI Crude Oil (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a barrel) s Brent Crude Oil (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a barrel) s < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > U.S. Natural Gas (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars an MMBtu) s Gasoline (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a gallon) s < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Copper (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a pound) s -based s Gold (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a troy ounce) s < < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > >
5 -based s (concluded) Corn (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) s Coffee (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a pound) s < < < < < < > < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Rough Rice (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a hundredweight) s Wheat (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) s < < < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > Soybeans (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) s Soybean Meal (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a short ton) s < <.... < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > >
6 -based Probabilities of Changes (in percent) % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WTI Crude Oil U.S. Natural Gas Copper Brent Crude Oil Gasoline % % % % % % % % % % % % %.... +%.... Gold 6
7 -based Probabilities of Changes (concluded) (in percent) % % % % % % % % % % % % %.... +% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Corn Rough Rice Soybeans Coffee Wheat Soybean Meal % % % % % % % % % % % % %.... +%
8 Commodity Derivative Contract Specifications Commodity Contract Physical Characteristics Contract Size Pricing Unit Months Traded Light sweet crude oil 1, barrels U.S. dollars per barrel Brent crude oil ICE Europe One crude oil futures contract of 1, barrels Consecutive months up to and including February 22 WTI crude oil New York Light sweet crude oil 1, barrels U.S. dollars per barrel One crude oil futures contract of 1, barrels Consecutive months are listed for the current year and the next five years; in addition, the Jun and Dec contract months are listed beyond the sixth year. Natural Gas New York Natural gas delivered at Henry Hub, LA 1, MMBtu U.S. dollars per MMBtu One natural gas futures contract of 1, MMBtu Consecutive months for the current year plus the next twelve full calendar years. Gasoline Gold New York New York Harbor RBOB 42, gallons U.S. cents per gallon Gold (a minimum of 995 fineness) One gasoline futures contract of 42, gallons troy ounces One COMEX Gold futures contract U.S. dollars per troy ounce Consecutive months for 36 months Current calendar month; the next two calendar months; any Feb, Apr, Aug, and Oct falling within a 23-month period; and any Jun and Dec falling within a 72-month period beginning with the current month. Corn Coffee Rough rice ICE Yellow corn grade #2 5, bushels (127 MT) U.S. cents per bushel Arabica coffee from 19 countries of origin U.S. #2 long grain rough rice with a total milling yield of 65%+ One corn futures contract (of a specified month) of 5, bushels 37, lbs U.S. cents per pound One coffee futures contract (of a specified month) of 37, lbs 2, hundredweights (CWT) One rough rice futures contract of 2, hundredweights (CWT) U.S. cents per hundredweight Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Wheat Soybean meal #2 soft red winter wheat 5, bushels (136 MT) U.S. cents per bushel Meal with minimum protein of 48% One Wheat futures contract (of a specified month) of 5, bushels short tons U.S. dollars per ton One soybean meal futures contract (of a specified month) of short tons Mar, May, July, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Soybeans Yellow soybean grade #2 5, bushels (136 MT) U.S. cents per bushel One soybean futures contract (of a specified month) of 5, bushels Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Nov. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Sources: Board of Trade, ICE, Bloomberg, L.P. 8
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