Climate change and rainforest tourism in Australia. Steve Turton School of Earth & Environmental Sciences James Cook University, Cairns

Transcription

1 Climate change and rainforest tourism in Australia Steve Turton School of Earth & Environmental Sciences James Cook University, Cairns

2 Outline of talk 1) Context for the study 2) Australian rainforest types 3) The Australian rainforest tourism sector 4) Recent changes in Australia s climate 5) Projected changes in Australia s climate over the next 20 to 50 years 6) Likely impacts of climate change on Australia s rainforest and tourism 7) Climate change adaptation options and barriers for the rainforest tourism sector

3 Context for the study q In the late 1980s, nature-based tourism (ecotourism) accounted for 2% of all global tourism, rising to about 20% in the first decade of the 21 st Century (Newsome et al., 2013). q Ecotourism is considered the fastest growing market in the tourism industry, with an annual growth rate of 5% worldwide and representing 6% of the world gross domestic product (United Nations World Tourism Organization, 2011). q Australia s nature-based tourism segment is the most significant accounting for 64% of international and 13% of domestic tourism in 2009 (Tourism Research Australia, 2010).

4 Context for the study q Australia is one of the leading providers of nature-based tourism in the world, attracting over 3.1 million international tourists in 2009 and many more domestic tourists (Tourism Research Australia, 2010). q Australia s national parks and protected areas are the basis for nature-based tourism experiences and underpin Australia s $95 billion tourism industry (Tourism Research Australia, 2012). q As climate defines the length and quality of tourism seasons, affects tourism operations and influences environmental conditions that both attract and deter visitors, the tourism sector is considered to be highly climate sensitive (Becken and Hay, 2007; Turton et al., 2009; Pang et al., 2013).

5 Context for the study q Anthropogenic climate change is likely to result in both positive and negative impacts on tourism at international tourism destinations over coming decades (Becken and Hay, 2007; Pang et al., 2013). q Globally, Australia is considered among the most at risk of adverse impacts on the sector, especially the naturebased market, due to the climatically sensitive nature of many of the country s iconic tourist destinations, including the Great Barrier Reef, Kakadu National Park and Queensland s Wet Tropics rainforests (Turton et al., 2010; Ruhanen and Shakeela, 2013).

6 Australian Vegetation Types Hobbs and McIntyre (2005)

7 Australian Rainforest Types Bowman (2000)

8 Rainforest characteristics q While the total area of Australian rainforests might be small on a global scale, remaining forest ecosystems are unique in a number of important ways, notably: 1) their variety is unusual 2) the range of climates in which they have survived is exceptionally wide 3) the number of plants and animals that are endemic to them and are still identifiable as being of primitive stocks is scientifically significant (Stork et al., 2008). q Australia is unique in being the only developed country to contain tropical, sub-tropical and warm and cool temperate rainforests.

9 Australian rainforest tourism sector 1) Wet Tropics of Queensland World Heritage Area Description ( Tropical rainforest, mixed forest and wet sclerophyll forest 8,940 km 2 Inscribed on WH list in 1988 Meets all four criteria for listing as a natural site Listed as a National Cultural Site Annual visitation is estimated at 5 million For 2006/7 visitation generated (Gillespie Economics and BDA Group, 2009) $2,058.0 million in annual direct and indirect output or business turnover 13,351 direct and indirect jobs.

10 Australian rainforest tourism sector 1) Gondwana Rainforests of Australia World Heritage Area Description ( Sub-tropical rainforest, mixed forest and wet Eucalypt forest 3,665 Km 2 Inscribed on WH list in 1986 (extended in 1994) Meets three of the four criteria for listing as a natural site Annual visitation is estimated at 2.5 million, 1.3 million in Queensland and 1.2 million in NSW For 2006/7 visitation generated (Gillespie Economics and BDA Group, 2009) $357.2 million in annual direct and indirect output or business turnover 2,314 direct and indirect jobs

11 Australian rainforest tourism sector 1) Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area Description ( Cool temperate rainforest, mixed forest and tall wet Eucalyptus forest, alpine ecosystems 14,000 Km 2 Inscribed on WH list in 1982 (extended in 1989, 2010 and 2012) Meets all four criteria for listing as a natural site Meets three of six criteria for listing as a cultural site Annual visitation was estimated as 0.5 million For 2006/7 visitation generated (Gillespie Economics and BDA Group, 2009) $424.1 million in annual direct and indirect output or business turnover 3,886 direct and indirect jobs

12 Main Visitor Activities q Bushwalking (overnight and day walks) q Camping and picnicking q Viewing natural and cultural heritage q Recreational vehicles q Mountain bike, bike riding q Horse-riding q Scenic driving q Caving q Boating q Angling q Climbing & abseiling q Rafting & kayaking q Over-flights q Hunting q Relaxing Adapted from Turton (2005)

13 Recent changes in Australia s climate

14 Historical changes in Australian climate over past 100 years Average annual temperatures in Australia have increased by 0.9 ºC since 1910 (BOM 2012). Australian-average annual temperature anomalies relative to the average for the period (Source: BOM 2013).

15 Historical changes in Australian climate since 1950 Trends in average temperatures across Australia from (Source: BOM 2013) Trends in average rainfall across Australia from (Source: BOM 2013)

16 Future changes in Australia s climate

17 Projected climate changes to 2070 NCCARF Forest Vulnerability Synthesis Report No. 1 (Wood et al., 2010) Winter (JJA) > 39 deg C) Annual rainfall increases in the tropical north and decreases elsewhere In northern Australia, the wet season gets wetter, the dry season gets drier In southern Australia, widespread decreases in rainfall occur during winter and spring. The west and southern coasts show decreases in rainfall in all seasons Mean maximum temperature in February increases by degrees over most of Australia by 2070.

18 Abiotic drivers CO 2 Temperature Rainfall Extreme events Impacts on forests NCCARF Forest Vulnerability Synthesis Report No. 1 (Wood et al., 2010) Biotic interactions Weeds Pests & pathogens Fire Ecosystem services Productivity C sequestration Biodiversity Water use, etc.

19 Impacts on rainforest tourism

20 Australian Rainforest Types Bowman (2000)

21 Wet Tropics Bushwalking (overnight and day walks): increased activity in the dry season Camping and picnicking: increased activity in the dry season Viewing natural and cultural heritage: reduction or loss of iconic animal and plant species in upland rainforest Recreational vehicles: increased activity in the dry season Mountain bike, bike riding: increased activity in the dry season Horse-riding: increased activity in the dry season Scenic driving: no change Climbing & abseiling: increased activity in the dry season Rafting & kayaking: reduced activity in the dry season at key sites Swimming: reduced activity in the dry season at some sites Canopy walks and cableway: increased activity in the dry season Relaxing: no change Overall, rainforest-based tourism should continue in the long term as rainfall remains relatively stable into the future (Turton, in press)

22 Gondwana Rainforests of Australia Bushwalking (overnight and day walks): bush fire risk in dry years Camping and picnicking: bush fire risk in dry years Viewing natural and cultural heritage: loss of iconic cool adapted plant species, e.g. Antarctic beech Recreational vehicles: bush fire risk in dry years Mountain bike, bike riding: bush fire risk in dry years Horse-riding: bush fire risk in dry years Scenic driving no change Climbing & abseiling: no change Swimming: reduced activity at some sites during drought years Canopy walks: possible changes in canopy processes Relaxing: no change Overall, in the future rainforest-based tourism may be in decline as core areas of rainforest habitat shrink due to less rain and greater bushfire risk in many years (Turton, in press)

23 Tasmanian Wilderness Bushwalking (overnight and day walks): extended tourist season due to warmer climate and drier summers Camping and picnicking: extended tourist season due to warmer climate and drier summers Viewing natural and cultural heritage: loss of some habitats due to warming and drying and increased bushfire risk in summer. Recreational vehicles: extended tourist season due to warmer climate and drier summers Mountain bike, bike riding: extended tourist season due to warmer climate and drier summers Horse-riding: extended tourist season due to warmer climate and drier summers Scenic driving: no change Caving: no change, but possible reductions in cave stream-flow may be important (Turton, in press)

24 Tasmanian Wilderness Ocean boating: no change Angling: possible changes in fish composition in marine sites and less summer stream-flow for freshwater sites Climbing & abseiling: extended tourist season due to warmer climate and drier summers Rafting & kayaking: reduced activity at some sites during very dry summers Over-flights: increase in summer Hunting: may increase if feral animals respond positively to climate change Relaxing: no change Overall, potential to make summer tourism more appealing as mainland areas become too hot, but fire risk may be a problem in dry years (Turton, in press)

25 Adaptation Strategies

26 Conceptual framework Exposure Sensitivity Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Planned Adaptation Resilience Adapted from Schroter and ATEAM- Consortium (2004)

27 Adaptive capacity The ecological adaptive capacity of Australian rainforests to climate change is low due to their high exposure and sensitivity to even small changes in temperature and rainfall. The socio-economic adaptive capacity of rainforest tourism in the country is relatively high due to a stable economy and well-developed social structures.

28 Levels of Adaptation q Operator level: e.g. diversify products to cope with future environmental and market changes (e.g. extended summer tourism in Tasmanian Wilderness) q Industry level: e.g. produce information guides to assist small tourism operators and organisations to develop and undertake adaptation strategies as a means of supporting the regional economy q Local community level: e.g. understanding of the beliefs and values of local residents with the view of building support for adaptation in the tourism sector. (Turton et al., 2009)

29 Barriers to adaptation There is a high degree of uncertainty and scepticism surrounding climate change projections across the tourism sector, and this perhaps explains why the industry continues to focus on climate change mitigation. Communication and community involvement in climate change adaptation is somewhat lacking in many tourist destinations (lacking an inclusive bottom up approach to adaptation planning). One of the major perceived limitations to adaptation within the tourism sector is the high proportion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that characterise regional tourism (operating on small overheads with little or no capital or capacity to implement major adaptation strategies). (Turton et al., 2009)

30 What needs to happen? Confidence that the climate really is changing and that increased variability in climate is part of the process. Motivation to avoid risk or take up opportunities. Demonstration of new technologies. Transitional and legislative support from government. Resources from government and private stakeholders. Effective monitoring and evaluation, given that climate change is a moving target. (Turton et al., 2009)

31 Conclusions Rainforest tourism is an important segment accounting for over 8 million visitors per year (over $3B per year) Rainforests are highly exposed and sensitive to changes in climate: increasing temperatures impacting on cool-adapted plant and animal species in the uplands of the tropics and sub-tropics increased seasonality in rainfall and increased fire risk across all rainforest regions of the country increased risk of severe tropical cyclones and storms in the tropics. Barriers to climate change adaptation are problematic: driven by uncertainties and scepticism of the climate a general lack of communication and community involvement in climate change adaptation in regional areas a shortfall of capital and capacity by the largely small enterprise tourism sector to implement adaptation strategies and actions.

32 Thank you!