Utilization Strategies. John C. Powell. End to End Solutions for NGL s

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1 Analysis of the NGL Supply & Utilization Strategies John C. Powell End to End Solutions for NGL s

2 U.S. NGL Market Overview Natural Gas Liquids What are they? Ethane/C2, Propane/C3, Normal Butane/NC4, Iso Butane/IC4, Natural Gasoline/C5 Once NGL s were a by product, now it drives exploration and production USA WAS the worlds storage Now the USA is the worlds SUPPLY Supply: NGL supplies from gas processing: MMBPD (1) or 40% increase in NGL extraction Historical build out of midstream infrastructure pipes, fractionation, and export expansions NGL take away Large scale re distribution of supply and demand underway Re asserting global dominance of US petrochemical industry. Demand Manufacturing sector gains Summer and winter builds and draws storage Bentek 5yr estimates

3 U.S. Rich Shale Plays Rich Shale Play Corridors Rich Plays NGL (GPM) Content* Avalon/Bone 4.0 to 5.0 Springs** Bakken** 4.0 to 9.0 Barnett 2.5 to 3.5 Cana-Woodford 4.0 to 6.0 Eagle Ford*** 4.0 to 9.0 Granite Wash 4.0 to 6.0 Green River** 3.0 to 5.0 Niobrara** 4.0 to 9.0 Marcellus (Rich) 4.0 to 8.0 Utica 4.0 to?? * gpm gallons of NGLs per 1000 cu. ft. ** Oil Shale Plays *** Both an Oil and Gas Shale Play Source: EIA / Industry Publications / Inergy Services estimates formula 1GPM = 1MMG 3

4 Why Even Drill for NG? Commodity pricing NG is $2.80 MMBtu Ethane is $5.05 MMBtu ($.3350/gallon) Propane is $9.95 MMBtu ($.9100/gallon) Normal Butane $14.65MMBtu ($1.5200/gallon) Natural Gasoline $19.20 MMBtu ($2.13/gallon) Combined value based on estimated 5 GPM/Mcf NG $2.80 Ethane 65% $1.09 Propane 20% $.9100 Normal 10% $0.76 Natural Gasoline 5% $0.53 Total value $4.84 (w/ $.25/gal of T&F) Actual value is $4.56 since ethane is rejected)

5 Factors Driving Expanding NGL Supply Greater Gas Production Shale and Unconventional Gas Plays Gas Surplus Production capability exceeding demand Low Gas Prices Relative to Crude and NGLs Drilling Rich Gas Plays Value Uplift from NGLs and Condensates Greater NGL Extraction Build Out of Processing Plants and NGL Infrastructure Source: EnVantage Expansion of NGL Markets US markets gaining confidence that NGLs will be available and competitively priced. NGL consumption rising with plans to add more US petrochemical capacity to consume NGLs, particularly ethane and propane. Export markets for US LPGs expanding as global NGL demand grows. 5

6 U.S. NGL Market Overview Shale plays are transforming the outlook for NGLs: 40% increase in NGL extraction Historical build out of midstream infrastructure pipes, fractionation, and export expansions NGL take away Demand areas now becoming production areas especially NG Re asserting global dominance of US petrochemical industry. For the past 2+ yrs the NGL processing spreads have been at record levels despite a sluggish economy: Driven by Crude to Gas ratio (4x vs. historical) and NGL s correlation to Crude pricing (petrochemical link) Gas Processing volumes expected to grow by 10BCF P/D to 56BCF by 2016 Resulting challenge for producers and G&P service providers is to physically flow this volume of NGL and monetize at premiums to natural gas value Bentek 5yr estimates

7 U.S. NGL Market Overview (Cont.) Bakken, Eagle Ford and Marcellus Utica are the top NGL plays currently The initial infrastructure is geared toward flow to Mt. Belvieu, the capital of the world LPG market Padd 3 Mt. Belv. will see 600MMB P/D of y grade by 2016 Export Capacity will almost triple to 400MB P/D Chemical demand capacity for Ethane from MMb P/D PDH facilities will crack Propane New pipe, fractionator, and storage expansions Marcellus and Utica have more development of local infrastructure providing alternative to Mt. Belvieu but lacks scalability without new petrochemical or PDH facility Sun Logistics reclassification of refined product pipes and refinery export terminal Others with pipe that can be reclassified EPD ATEX, and Williams to Mt. Belvieu 7

8 Total NGL Supply by Product USA 3.35million bbls /day Ethane 929 thousand bbls /day (28%) Propane 1.41million bbls /day (42%) Normal Butane 448 thousand bbls/day (13%) Iso Butane 228 thousand bbls/day (7%) Pentanes+ 333 thousand bbls/day (10%) Iso Butane 7% Normal Butane 13% NGL Supply by Product Natural Gasoline 10% Propane 42% Ethane 28% 8

9 NGL Production by PADD West Coast V Rocky Mountain IV Minnesota Wisconsin North and South Dakota II Indiana Illinois Kentucky I PADD IB Central Atlantic Oklahoma Kansas Missouri PADD IC Lower Atlantic NM III TX LA 9

10 Total NGL Supply by PADD Total USA 3.35 million bbls/day PADD 1 East Coast 209 thousand bbls per day (6%) PADD 2 Mid continent 658 thousand bbls per day (20%) PADD 3 Southwest/Gulf States million bbls per day (68%) PADD 4 Rockies 67 thousand bbls per day (2%) PADD 5 West Coast 147 thousand bbls per day (4%) 10

11 Current Utilization for NGL s

12 Ethane Supply and Demand Natural Gas Production 95% Refining 5% Ethane Ethane Petrochemical 98% Heating/NG Rejection 2% 12

13 Propane Supply and Demand Natural Gas Production 60% Refining 34% Land Imports 6% Waterborne Imports 0% Propane Other 5% Petrochemical 38% Land Exports 1% Heating 42% Waterborne Exports 14% 13

14 Normal Butane Supply and Demand Natural Gas Production 78% Refining 18% Imports 4% Normal Butane Diluent 2% Refinery Blending 48% Isomerization 22% Petrochemical 22% Exports 6% 14

15 Iso Butane Supply and Demand Natural Gas Production 70% Isomerization 25% Imports 5% Iso Butane Refinery Blending 92% Exports 8% 15

16 Pentanes+ Supply and Demand Natural Gas Production 95% Imports 5% Refining 0% Pentanes Pentanes + + Refining 70% Ethanol Denaturing 2% Petrochemical 18% Diluent Exports to Canada 10% 16

17 US NGL Supply Sources & End Uses NGL Supply Sources Gas Processing 80% (2,150 MBPD) Crude Oil Refining 15% (390 MBPD) NGLs Supplied ¹ NGL End Uses NGLs Consumed ² Ethane 42% Primary Ethane 98% Propane 28% Petrochemicals Propane 36% 55% (1,455 MBPD) Normal Butane 7% N Butane 26% Iso Butane 9% Natural Gaso 11% Space Heating Natural Gasoline 14% & Other Fuel Uses Propane 54% 19% (500 MBPD) Ethane 12% Ethane 2% Propane 71% Mixed Butanes 17% Motor Gasoline & Blendstocks N Butane 66% Iso Butane 100% 19% (510 MBPD) Natural Gaso 72% Overland & Waterborne Imports 5% (135 MBPD) Propane 77% Mixed Butanes 15% Pentane Plus 8% ¹ % s represent the composition of NGL mix from primary sources. Source: EnVantage Ethanol Natural Gaso 7% Denaturing <1% (20 MBPD) Propane 10% Fuel Exports N Butane 7% 6% (190 MBPD) Natural Gaso 10% (diluent) ² % of a NGL supplied that is consumed by a 17 market.

18 Utilization Strategies for NGL s Keep the NGL Production in the NE Government restrictions!!! Storage Chemical facilities Export Terminals International exports through Marcus Hook, PA Jones Act restrictions Newington, NH Chesapeake, VA Providence, RI Build Pipe Infrastructure out of PADD 1 Sarnia 1 st and best alternative Houston/Mt. Belvieu, Texas

19 19

20 Conclusions Prolific Shale production will continue to grow the NGL supply North East is one of the fastest growth areas for the supply of NGL s in the USA If the NE does not allow infrastructure all NGL s will try to get to Texas! Global Demand for NGL s will continue grow as crude remains 10X over Natural Gas Chemical/motor fuel demand provides the best upgrade for NGL s Significant build out of infrastructure will best serve the producers, Mid-stream MLP s and local economies.

21 The End Travel Safe and have a great weekend!

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