Million MT CWE. Million MT CWE 1.5

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1 Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service il 5 Beef and Veal: Exports by major traders are revised nearly percent higher from the ober forecast to a record. million tons. Larger shipments from India and to a lesser extent the EU and Paraguay more than offset declines by, Uruguay, and the. Imports by a number of oil-reliant countries including are reduced significantly on economic challenges such as declining oil revenues and weaker currencies. U.S. production is revised up percent to. million tons on higher cattle weights. Exports are revised 4 percent lower to. million tons due to a stronger dollar. World Beef Exports Reach Record 7.5 India Widens Lead Over as Top Global Beef Exporter Million MT CWE Million MT CWE Million MT CWE Production Exports India Pork: Exports by major traders are revised 5 percent lower to 6.8 million tons as a reduction in shipments by, the and are not expected to offset gains by the EU. Aggregate import demand is negatively impacted by lower n imports due to its economic woes as well as the ban on shipments from key suppliers and disease-based restrictions. EU export expansion is supported by favorable prices in a number of markets including. U.S. production is revised percent higher to a record. million tons as a lower incidence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) is expected to bolster slaughter-ready hog supplies. Despite increased production and competitive domestic prices, U.S. exports are forecast 9 percent lower to nearly. million tons as a strong dollar curbs demand. To receive the circular via , register at Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2 Million MT CWE Global Pork Trade Declines for rd Year.5 Million MT CWE Million MT CWE.5.75 EU Overtakes the as Leading Global Pork Exporter Production Exports Broiler Meat: Exports by major traders are revised 5 percent lower as declines in and the United States more than offset gains by the EU. s shipments are constrained by slow economic growth in a number of countries despite opportunities in markets currently restricting the. Argentina s exports to Venezuela are expected to contract due to economic weakness in Venezuela and lower oil prices. Angola s imports are forecast to decline due to temporary trade restrictions and currency shortages. U.S. production is revised percent higher to a record 8. million tons on increased slaughter and heavier weights. Despite increased supplies, U.S. exports are revised 9 percent lower to. million tons due to a stronger dollar and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related trade restrictions with some countries. Global Broiler Meat Exports Decline 9 4 U.S. Broiler Meat Exports Fall 8 Million MT RTC Million MT RTC Million MT RTC Million MT RTC Production Exports Production Exports 6

3 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade il 5 Contents Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry Beef Beef Summary Tables Cattle Summary Tables Pork Pork Summary Tables Swine Summary Tables Poultry Meat Broiler Meat Summary Tables Notes to Readers Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

4 Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Broiler Meat Beef and Veal, Pork:, Tons Carcass Weight Equivalent / Broiler Meat:, Tons Ready to Cook Equivalent Production 4 (p) 5 (f) Percent Change 4 to 5 Beef and Veal 58,485 58,49 58,5 59,5 59,69 59,6 -.% Pork,97,565 6,95 8,8,476,874.4% Broiler Meat 78,57 8,46 8,46 84,66 86,48 87,8.% Consumption 9,85 4,6 48,877 5,99 56,54 57,8.% Beef and Veal 57,9 56,5 57, 57,88 57,69 56,79 -.5% Pork,786,54 6,4 8,6 9,954,5.% Broiler Meat 77,8 8, 8,776 8,9 84,668 85,54.% Imports 7,59 9,678 45,5 49,7 5,5 5,584.% Beef and Veal 6,649 6,448 6,68 7,484 7,89 7,797 -.% Pork 5,845 6,557 6,858 6,595 6,6 6,5-5.% Broiler Meat 7,85 8,7 8,54 8,68 8,84 8,58 -.9% Exports,99,,8,76,96,45 -.% Beef and Veal 7,794 8,7 8,8 9,6,,.% Pork 6,9 6,954 7,68 7,9 6,887 6,86 -.% Broiler Meat 8,94 9,57,88,55,489,64 -.% U.S. Exports,77 4,599 5,494 6,4 7,79 7,8.% Beef and Veal,4,6,,75,67,98-5.9% Pork,95,56,44,64,4,55 -.% Broiler Meat,67,65,,,, -8.5% 6,5 6,784 6,85 6,77 6,684 6,8-6.% U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders Beef and Veal % 6% 4% % % % Pork % 4% 4% % % % Broiler Meat 4% % % % % 9% Combined 7% 8% 7% 6% 4% % Notes: s include only those countries that make up USDA s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA s database, which represent the most important markets in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

5 Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Production 9, 9,7 9,675 9,7,5 9,8 8,4 7,78 7,88 7,4 7,475 7,44 6,475 6,6 6,7 6,89 6,4 6,85 India,8,49,8 4,5 4,5 4,5 Argentina,5,6,85,7,85,7,9,5,59,595,4,75,84,8,87,87,765,845 Pakistan,56,587,6,675,75,75,6,8,8,7,4,7,4,6,49,75,,5 8,79 8,94 9,9 9, 8,44 8,46 Foreign 46,66 46,66 47,76 48,6 47,87 47,95,98,848,75,78,868,55 58,49 58,5 59,5 59,69 58,79 59,6 Dom. Consumption 7,7 7,845 7,885 7,896 8,55 7,95 8,4 7,76 7,5 7,48 7,585 7,495 6,449 6,68 7,5 7,97 6,89 7,5 Argentina,,458,664,5,65,5,46,98,9,79,5, India,4,8,5,4,,,9,86,87,89,8,845 Pakistan,5,58,576,66,66,66,7,55,,6,,8 996,9, ,8,44,96,,6,7 Foreign 44,857 45,9 46, 46,85 45,94 45,447,646,79,68,44,944,9 56,5 57, 57,88 57,69 56,884 56,79 Notes: May contain meat of other bovines.from 5, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

6 Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Imports Hong Kong ,7, Korea, South Egypt Chile Malaysia ,95,99,5,67,49,987 Foreign 5,55 5,67 6,464 6,55 6,84 6,477 9,7,,7,5, 6,448 6,68 7,484 7,89 8,49 7,797 Exports India,68,4,765,8,95,4,4,54,849,99,5,5,4,47,59,85,59,59 New Zealand Paraguay Uruguay Belarus Foreign 6,89 7,6 7,95 8,86 8,798 9,,6,,75,67,45,98 8,7 8,8 9,6, 9,94, Notes:May contain meat of other bovines.from 5, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

7 Cattle Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Imports Egypt Belarus Ukraine Argentina Foreign 75,56,, ,7,8,,58,5,5,8,9,4,69,74,87 Exports,45,59,45,76,5, ,44,45,5, ,98, New Zealand Uruguay Ukraine Foreign 4,68 4,69 4,488 5,6 4,8 4, ,46 4,8 4,649 5,68 4,96 4,496 Notes: May contain other bovines.from 5, Colombia and Venezuela and excluded. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

8 Cattle Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Cattle Beg. Stks India,5, 99,66,6,, 9,95 97,55,7 7,959,7,5 6,64,65,44,,95,55 87,8 87,54 87,6 87,69 88,5 88,5 Argentina 48,56 49,597 5,95 5,545 5,695 5,895 7,55 8,56 9, 9,9 7,6 7,6 9,97,4 9,9 9,564 9, 9,,456,9 8,5 7,76 7,75 7, Uruguay,4,,84,9,,8,55,45,5,,95,95 7, 68,64 66, 64,5,5,5 Foreign 898,7 898,77 9,755 95,5 876, ,84 9,887 9,6 9,95 88,56 87,75 89,8 99, ,7 99,85 994,8 964,5 964,64 Production (Calf Crop) India 6,5 6,5 65, 66, 66,75 67, 49,445 49,69 5,85 49,6 5,75 49,9 44,5 48, 48,8 47,9 45,5 49,, 9,8 9,5 9,5 9,5 9, Argentina,,7 4,,5,9,9 9,64 9,, 9,564 9,7 9,4 6,9 6,8 6,7 6,75 6,85 6,85 7,9 6,9 6,8 6,67 6,545 6,5 New Zealand 4,786 4,96 4,9 5,8 5,65 4,975 4,64 4,46 4,56 4,599 4,44 4,44 4,544 4,644 4,84 4,45,5,5 Foreign 47,68 5,56 54,998 5,8 5, 5,49 5,57 4,469,7,9,4 4, 8,75 86, 88,78 87,8 8,5 85,79 Notes: May contain other bovines.from 5, Colombia and Venezuela are excluded. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

9 Pork Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Production 5,64 5,47 54,9 56,7 57,5 56,6,95,56,59,4,65,45,7,,8,,494,,64,75,4,5,8,56 Vietnam,6,7,49,45,45,45,8,84,89,85,86,84 Philippines,88,,4,5,9,7,,9,84,9,9,4,67,97,9,64,79,8 Korea, South 87,86,5,,48,4 5,78 5,859 5,975 5,88 5,4 5,4 Foreign 9,4 96,96 98,97,8,877 99,87,,554,54,68,858,,565 6,95 8,8,476,75,874 Dom. Consumption 5,8 5,8 55,46 57,69 58,5 57,45,8,8,47,7,75,,644,67,696,759,795,85,5,9,67,4,94,759,5,557,549,54,55,54 Vietnam,8,75,5,89,44,44,7,85,956,99,5,6 Korea, South,487,546,68,77,64,75 Philippines,4,446,5,55,589,579 Taiwan ,899 7,8 7, 7, 6,7 6,56 Foreign 94,86 97,9 99,699,7,89,96 8,8 8,44 8,66 8,647 8,874 9,79,54 6,4 8,6 9,954,6,5 Note:From 5, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

10 Pork Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Imports,54,59,,,75, , 8 Korea, South Hong Kong Philippines , Singapore ,8, Foreign 6,9 6,494 6,96 5,96 5,94 5, ,557 6,858 6,595 6,6 6, 6,5 Exports,5,65,7,77,,5,97,4,46,9,8, Chile Vietnam Belarus Serbia Foreign 4,598 4,88 4,765 4,68 4,85 4,66,56,44,64,4,8,55 6,954 7,68 7,9 6,887 7,96 6,86 Note:From 5, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

11 Swine Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Beginning Stocks 464,6 468,67 475,9 474, 475, 465,8 5,6 49,89 46,98 46,7 45,5 46,4 6,65 8,6 8,577 8,844 9,4 9,95 7, 7,58 8,86 9,8 9, 9,4,65,65,6,94,8,65 Korea, South 8,449 8,7 9,96 9,9 9,75,9 9,7 9,76 9,5 9,775 9,65 9,7 9,768 9,75 9,685 9,57 9,4 9,5 Ukraine 7,96 7,7 7,577 7,9 7,65 7,777 Belarus,887,989 4,4,67,,94,89,85,8,98,986,949 Foreign 74,89 77,484 75,976 7,66 7,658 76,6 64,75 66,59 66,4 64,775 65,4 66,45 789,544 79,74 8, 798,46 798,58 79,8 Production (Pig Crop) 67,96 77,47 7,97 79,97 689,5 68, 64,655 57,6 57, 59, 5, 6, 7,75 7,7 7,9 8,47 8,4 9,5,65 4,5 6, 7, 4,7 7, 8,5 8,46 7,76 7,7 7,7 7,55 6,975 7,5 7,8 7,6 6, 7,7 Korea, South,8 6,4 6,95 6,8 5,4 7,6 7, 7,5 7,5 7, 7, 7,5 Ukraine 8,9 8,58 9,465 9,65 9,45 9,4 Belarus 5,75 5,75 5, 4,5 4,9 4,9 4,659 4,58 4,77 4,66 4,7 4,7 Foreign,96,877,4,77,5,55,6,794,4,5,7,55 5,86 6,655 5,5,596 7,645 8,468,,96,5,6,65,687,75,9,,695,6,8 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

12 Swine Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Imports Ukraine Belarus Korea, South Foreign ,795 5,656 4,957 4,949 4,8 5,9 6,744 6,89 5,7 5, 4,84 5,4 Exports 5,8 5,676 4,784 4,96 4,8 5,,56,644,68,75,85,6, Ukraine Belarus 5 Korea, South Foreign 8,54 8,67 7,89 7,7 7, 7, ,544 8, 7, 7,89 7,45 7,94 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

13 Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Production,,7,5,8,,,86,645,8,69,5, 9, 9,565 9,9,95,,5 India,9,6,45,75,9,9,575,8,,5,4,4,96,958,97,98,5,5 Argentina,77,4,6,5,6, Turkey,69,77,94,956,8,99 Thailand,5,55,5,57,64,64 Indonesia,55,54,55,565,65,65 4,64 5,6 5,66 6,86 5,54 5,59 Foreign 64,65 66,795 67,6 69,49 69,6 69,67 6,694 6,6 6,976 7,99 7,75 7,96 8,46 8,46 84,66 86,48 87,85 87,8 Dom. Consumption,6,54,74,9,775,895 9, 9,98 9,498 9,667 9,87 9,775 9,4 9,9 8,89 9,7 9,9 9,5 India,89,56,445,76,888,888,474,568,58,69,885,766,,56,5,658,75,68,5,4,9,8,5,4 Argentina,556,7,79,77,786,86 South Africa,65,76,7,77,784,755 Indonesia,55,54,55,565,65,65 8,76 9,68,,57 9,8 9,765 Foreign 66,6 68,4 69,4 7,64 7,658 7,566,66,45,69 4,4 4,454 4,974 8, 8,776 8,9 84,668 85, 85,54 Notes: Chicken paws are excluded.from 5, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and Moldova. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

14 Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Imports Saudi Arabia Iraq South Africa Angola Hong Kong Venezuela ,98,8,8,88,979,8 Foreign 8,78 8,49 8,66 8,79 8,69 8, ,7 8,54 8,68 8,84 8,66 8,58 Exports,44,58,48,558,85,665,44,94,8,4,,5 Thailand Turkey Argentina Ukraine Belarus Chile Foreign 6,48 6,788 6,9 7,76 7,587 7,4,65,,,,4, 9,57,88,55,489,98,64 Notes: Chicken paws are excluded.from 5, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and Moldova. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

15 Notes to Readers The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and broiler meat trade. Special note regarding ober 4 release: Please be advised that due to a database error, the Cattle Selected Countries Summary table in ober 4 release had an incorrect value for the aggregate for 4 and 5. The table in this report displays the corrected ober estimate. Exclusions Beginning in 5: Cattle: Colombia and Venezuela. Beef: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d Ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. Pork: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. Broiler Meat: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and Moldova. All turkey meat PSDs are discontinued as of 5. A historical data series through 4 is still available on the FAS website at Data Modifications Prior to Cattle/Beef: The cattle PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 6- period on official production data revisions:,, New Zealand,, and. The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 6- period on additional/revised official production data available: Angola,, Costa Rica,, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Iran, Kazakhstan,, New Zealand, Peru, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, South Africa, South Korea and Switzerland. The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 9- period on additional/revised trade data available:, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kuwait,, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Uruguay, Venezuela and Vietnam. Swine/Pork: The swine PSD for is revised for - due to revised official production data. The swine PSD for is revised for due to revised official trade data. The pork PSD for the following country is revised for particular years during the 8- period due to additional/revised official production data: New Zealand. The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the - period due to additional/revised official trade data: Kazakhstan and. Broiler Meat: The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 999- period on additional production data available: Angola, Congo (Kinshasa), Guatemala, Haiti, and Hong Kong. The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the - period on additional trade data available: Argentina, Iraq, Turkey, and Ukraine. Assumptions Diseases: Forecast reflects disease (avian influenza, bovine spongiform encephalopathy, etc.) policies and restrictions in place as of il 9, 5 and assumes their continuation. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5

16 Conversion Rates Beef &Veal Pork Conversion Rate.4. HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: Frozen: Processed: & 65 Broiler Meat Conversion Rate HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 7., 7. Frozen: 7., 7.4 Processed: 6. Fresh/Chilled:,, 9 Frozen:,, 9 Processed:,, 9, 64, 64, 649 Turkey Meat Fresh/Chilled: 7.4, 7.6, 7., 7.4, 7.5 Frozen: 7.5, 7.7, 7., 7.6 Processed: 6. Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded and carabeef (buffalo meat) is included. Technical Notes CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported. FAS Reports from Overseas Offices The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since January 5 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: PSD Online The entire USDA PSD database is available online at Additional Resources Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at: for additional data and analysis. Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/. Future Releases and Contact Information Please visit to view archived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in ober 5. To receive the circular via , go to: Questions may be directed to the following staff: Lindsay Kuberka () Lindsay.Kuberka@fas.usda.gov Cattle and Beef Claire Mezoughem () Claire.Mezoughem@fas.usda.gov Swine and Pork Joanna Hitchner () Joanna.Hitchner@fas.usda.gov Poultry Meat Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA il 5