Can we really have a Carbon Emission Free Economy? UK Electricity Generation where is the industry heading?

Transcription

1 Can we really have a Carbon Emission Free Economy? UK Electricity Generation where is the industry heading? Simon Hogg Director Durham Energy Institute DONG Professor of Renewable Energy Cleveland Institute of Engineers 3 rd November 2015

2 Things are Changing. Overall Context Past-Current Current-Future

3 Big Implications The Need for Flexibile Operation on UK Grid. Taken from Poyry presentation at Gas to Power Conference, 2012

4 One of the Challenges. Tension between Efficiency and Flexibility. Courtesy of ALSTOM Power

5 A couple of Facts and a Guess. Fact 1-3 things are needed for a secure electricity supply: Secure sources of fuel. Adequate generating capacity to meet extremes in demand. Enough inertia to keep the grid frequency stable (50Hz = 3000rpm synchronous generators). Fact 2 Gas, Coal, Nuclear and Wind are the 4 major sources of electricity generation on the UK grid today. All others tidal, wave, pump storage, interconnectors etc are small by comparison. Guess The big 4 sources of generation may swap rank but are unlikely to be challenged in the near term (next 5 to 10 years). 5

6 UK Electricity Generation So where is Generation from Coal Heading?

7 Current Operating Large (>200 MW) UK Coal Power Plants 14 Generating Stations in total. Will become 8 by March 2016! Aberthaw Power Station 1500MW - RWE npower Cottam Power Station 2008MW - EDF Energy Drax power station 3870MW - Drax Group (just announced withdrawal from White Rose project (CCS)) Eggborough Power Station 1960MW - British Energy (to close by March 2016 Ferrybridge Power Station 1995MW - SSE (to close by March 2016) Fiddlers Ferry Power Station 1961MW - SSE Ironbridge Power Station 970MW - E.ON (to close by the end of 2015) Kingsnorth power station 1940MW - E.ON (to close by the end of 2015) Longannet power station 2400MW Scottish Power (to close by March 2016) Lynemouth Power Station 420MW - Alcan Ratcliffe-on-Soar Power Station 2000MW - E.ON Rugeley Power Station 1006MW - International Power Tilbury Power Station 1131MW - RWE npower (to close by the end of 2015) West Burton Power Station 1972MW - EDF Energy 2001 EU Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) 7

8 UK Electricity Generation So where is Nuclear Generation Heading?

9 Where are the UK s Currently Operating Large Nuclear Power Stations? Torness Hunterston B Heysham l Hartlepool Heysham ll Sizewell B Hinkley Point B Dungeness B 9

10 What is the output from the UK s Currently Operating Large Nuclear Power Stations? Site Power (MWe) Generation began Hunterston B Hinkley Pt B Dungeness B Hartlepool Heysham Heysham Torness Sizewell B

11 What Does the Future Hold for Nuclear Power in UK? EdF plans to build 2 x Areva EPR (Generation 3) 1650MWe nuclear generating sets at Hinckley Point C, then same again at Sizewell C. UK Government fixed selling price for electricity from Hinckley Point C at MWhr to encourage EdF to invest. Project continues to see delays principal causes are problems at other EU EPR new builds and the emergence of Chinese money for support these UK projects. Existing AGR s continue to see life extensions beyond their original 25 year intended life. AGR s are showing their age. Two units at Heysham and Hartlepool were shut down for weeks last winter after cracks were found in the steam generators at Heysham UK s reserve capacity dropped to below 5% of peak winter demand at this time. 11

12 UK Electricity Generation So where is Wind Generation Heading?

13 Installed Capacities in UK Total installed UK electricity generation capacity, 80 GW; Peak electricity demand is around 45 GW; Current installed onshore wind turbine (WT) capacity c 8 GW, with average 27.3% Capacity Factor; Current installed offshore wind turbine (WT) capacity c 4 GW, with a 28->50% Capacity Factor; Current installed offshore wave device capacity 2-3 MW, under test; Current installed offshore tidal device capacity 1-2 MW, under test; 13

14 London Array, Offshore Wind Farm 341 x 3.6 MW WTs, 630 MW UK Round 2 Development 14

15 UK Round 3 Wind Farm Sites Consented but no turbines in the water yet. Up to 100 miles offshore huge increase in technical, installation and operational risk. Size of turbine (MHI-Vestas 8 MW) is keeping cost of energy realistic. Dong Energy started initial planning for the 1.2 GW Hornsea 3 North Sea wind farm this will probably be the first operational Round 3 site. 15

16 UK Electricity Generation So where is Generation from Gas Heading?

17 What does a Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) Power Plant Look Like? Typical 2+1 Type Combined Cycle Power Plant 17

18 CCGT Performance Compared to Others. In recent years all major CCGT manufacturers (Siemens, ALSTOM, GE) are claiming 60%+ Thermal Efficiency Achieved. 18

19 Summary UK Electricity Supply Immediate Future Generation from Conventional Coal fired power plants will reduce significantly due to plant closures and no new build. Nuclear new-build is happening but very slowly. New nuclear generating capacity is still 10+ years away. Generation from Nuclear will maintain current supply levels through life extension of existing plants. Supply risk will increase due to aging assets. Wind is already here and will grow further mainly through offshore development (Round 3 sites). Marine (Wave & Tidal) are likely to contribute less, but have better availability than Wind. Generation from Gas fired power plants will increase. Development of UK Shale Gas Fracking will further enhance this. Increased variability of supply mitigated to some extent by more sophisticated Demand Side Management to maintain reserve capacity.