Overseas Merchandise Trade: March 2016

Transcription

1 Overseas Merchandise Trade: March 2016 Embargoed until 10:45am 27 April 2016 Key facts March 2016 quarter: Values are seasonally adjusted and compared with the December 2015 quarter. Exports fell 1.2 percent (to $11.9 billion). Meat and edible offal led the fall, down 17 percent ($300 million), with the quantity exported down 16 percent. Imports fell 3.2 percent (to $12.8 billion). The quarterly trade deficit was $944 million (7.9 percent of exports). March 2016 month: Values are actual and compared with the March 2015 month. Exports fell 14 percent (to $4.2 billion), led by a fall in milk powder. A large drilling platform, worth $199 million, was exported in March 2015 and caused a fall in export value. Imports fell 3.7 percent (to $4.1 billion). The monthly trade balance was a surplus of $117 million (2.8 percent of exports). Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician ISSN April 2016

2 Commentary Quarterly exports fall 1.2 percent Quarterly imports fall 3.2 percent Goods trade deficit in March 2016 quarter Monthly exports fall 14 percent Monthly imports fall 3.7 percent Goods trade surplus in March 2016 Exchange rate movements Find data tables This commentary refers to trade in goods only. See Goods and Services Trade by Country: Year ended December 2015 for information on trade in goods and services. Quarterly exports fall 1.2 percent The seasonally adjusted value of exported goods fell 1.2 percent ($145 million) to $11.9 billion in the March 2016 quarter. This followed a 5.8 percent fall in the December 2015 quarter. Meat and edible offal leads fall in seasonally adjusted exports Comparisons are between the March 2016 quarter and the December 2015 quarter. 2

3 Meat and edible offal led the fall this quarter, down 17 percent ($300 million) to $1.5 billion, following a 3.6 percent fall in the December 2015 quarter. Compared with the March 2015 quarter, values are down 11 percent, while compared with the March 2014 quarter, values are up 0.8 percent. The quantity exported fell 16 percent this quarter from the series peak in the December 2015 quarter. Top destinations for meat and edible offal exports were the USA and China. Milk powder, butter, and cheese (our largest export commodity group) fell 6.4 percent ($181 million). This follows a 6.7 percent fall in the December 2015 quarter. The quantity exported in the March 2016 quarter fell 8.2 percent. Crude oil (not seasonally adjusted) fell $91 million (56 percent), with the quantity exported down 46 percent. This follows a 13 percent fall in value in the December 2015 quarter. Other key changes in commodity group export values: Casein and caseinates fell 21 percent ($57 million), with quantity exported down 16 percent. Logs, wood, and wood articles rose 4.9 percent ($44 million). Wool rose 23 percent ($38 million), with quantity exported up 28 percent. Quarterly exports to China fall In the March 2016 quarter, compared with the December 2015 quarter, the top export destinations (ranked by total annual exports) for New Zealand were: China down 8.0 percent ($175 million) to $2.0 billion. Australia up 2.5 percent ($51 million) to $2.1 billion. European Union (EU) down 5.2 percent (71 million) to $1.3 billion. Quarterly imports fall 3.2 percent The seasonally adjusted value of imported goods fell 3.2 percent ($426 million) to $12.8 billion in the March 2016 quarter. This followed a 3.9 percent ($532 million) fall in the December 2015 quarter. Excluding large one-off imports, the seasonally adjusted value of imported goods fell 1.2 percent in the March 2016 quarter, and follows a 2.6 percent fall in the December 2015 quarter. The trend for imports has now fallen for the second successive quarter. Prior to the December 2015 quarter it had been rising since the March 2013 quarter. The trend calculation excludes large import items. 3

4 Capital goods lead the fall in seasonally adjusted quarterly imports Of the three main broad import categories, capital goods decreased in value in the March 2016 quarter, while intermediate goods and consumption goods increased in value. 4

5 Capital goods fell 19 percent ($566 million) in the March 2016 quarter, following a 10 percent fall in the December 2015 quarter. Industrial transport equipment (down $409 million) and machinery and plant (down $157 million) both fell in the March 2016 quarter. The movements for both quarters were influenced by aircraft imports in July, August, and November Intermediate goods showed little change, up 0.5 percent ($26 million) in the March 2016 quarter, following a 2.8 percent fall in the December 2015 quarter. Fuels and lubricants (other than motor spirit) and processed food and beverages for industrial use (such as sugar and vegetable oils) increased in the March 2016 quarter, while parts and accessories of transport equipment (such as aircraft parts), crude oil, and parts and accessories of capital plant (such as mechanical machinery and equipment) decreased. Consumption goods increased 1.1 percent ($40 million) in the March 2016 quarter, following a decrease of 0.3 percent in the December 2015 quarter. Processed food and beverages for household consumption, and durable consumer goods (such as electrical equipment) led the rise, but were offset by a fall in non-durable consumer goods (such as tobacco). In other categories of goods: Passenger motor cars increased 4.1 percent ($45 million) in the March 2016 quarter, following a 1.4 percent rise in the December 2015 quarter. Petrol and avgas, which is not seasonally adjusted, decreased 1.5 percent ($3.1 million), following a 24 percent fall in the December 2015 quarter. 5

6 Imports from Australia and China rise despite overall fall in seasonally adjusted imports In the March 2016 quarter, compared with the December 2015 quarter, the movements in seasonally adjusted values for the top import sources (ranked by total annual imports) for New Zealand were: China up 0.9 percent ($24 million) to $2.7 billion, following a 0.7 percent fall in the December 2015 quarter. European Union (EU) down 2.7 percent ($63 million) to $2.3 billion, following a 0.7 percent rise in the December 2015 quarter. Australia up 14 percent ($220 million) to $1.8 billion, following a 1.7 percent rise in the December 2015 quarter. The movements in quarterly import values (which are not seasonally adjusted) for New Zealand s two other major trading partners were: United States down 30 percent ($509 million) to $1.2 billion, following a 10 percent fall in the December 2015 quarter. Japan down 10 percent ($94 million) to $805 million, following a 3 percent rise in the December 2015 quarter. Goods trade deficit in March 2016 quarter In the March 2016 quarter, the seasonally adjusted trade deficit was $944 million, equivalent to 7.9 percent of exports. In the December 2015 quarter the deficit was $1.2 billion (10 percent of exports). 6

7 Monthly exports fall 14 percent In March 2016, goods exports were valued at $4.2 billion, down $701 million (14 percent) from March

8 Milk powder, butter, and cheese leads fall in exports Milk powder, butter, and cheese (our largest export commodity group) fell $355 million (29 percent) to $861 million in March 2016 compared with March The fall was primarily led by a large fall in whole milk powder, down $234 million (42 percent), with quantity down 41 percent. Milk fats (including butter) fell $51 million (22 percent) and cheese fell $19 million (11 percent). Ships, boats, and floating structures fell $218 million (98 percent) in March The fall was due to exporting a large drilling platform, worth $199 million, in March Excluding the drilling platform, overall exports fell $502 million (11 percent). Meat and edible offal fell $169 million (21 percent) to $658 million in March 2016 compared with March March 2015 was the series peak. The fall was led by beef, down $102 million (28 percent), with the quantity exported down 25 percent. Beef exports to the USA fell $69 million (32 percent). Lamb exports fell this month, down $62 million (17 percent), with the quantity exported down 11 percent. Lamb exports to China fell $34 million (34 percent). Fruit rose $45 million (44 percent) to $148 million, with quantity exported up 19 percent. The rise was led by gold kiwifruit, up $29 million, and royal gala apples, up $16 million. Kiwifruit values may be revised after this release due to delayed shipments. For March 2016, other key changes in commodity group export values were: casein and caseinates down $63 million (45 percent) logs, wood, and wood articles up $37 million (11 percent) 8

9 preparations of cereals, flour, and starch up $33 million (46 percent). Four of our top five export destinations fall in value The monthly movements for New Zealand s top export destinations (ranked by total annual exports) in March 2016 compared with March 2015 were: 1. China down $32 million (4.1 percent), due to falls in lamb, down $34 million, and milk powder, down $28 million. Partly offset by rises in rough wood and crustaceans. 2. Australia down $25 million (3.3 percent), primarily due to a fall in crude oil, down $34 million (82 percent). Food preparations for infant use rose $18 million. 3. United States down $89 million (15 percent), due to falls in beef, down $69 million (32 percent), and casein, down $35 million (79 percent). 4. European Union (EU) showed little change (down 0.2 percent). There were small rises and falls for a variety of commodities, such as lamb, down $9.6 million, and fruit, up $7.4 million. 5. Japan up $11 million (4.5 percent), led by a rise in fruit (up $18 million) and vegetables (up $5.3 million). Partly offset by a fall in aluminium articles (down $7.9 million). Kiwifruit values for Japan may be revised after this release due to delayed shipments. Monthly imports fall 3.7 percent In March 2016, imported goods were valued at $4.1 billion, down $157 million (3.7 percent) from March Capital goods lead the fall in monthly imports Of the three main broad economic categories, capital and intermediate goods decreased in value, while consumption goods increased in value compared with March

10 Capital goods fell $151 million (16 percent), due to a fall in transport equipment (such as aircraft, buses, and goods vehicles), down $140 million (43 percent). Intermediate goods fell $50 million (2.8 percent), due to a fall in crude oil. Intermediate goods other than crude oil showed little change. Of these other intermediate goods, increases in a range of commodities including parts and accessories of transport equipment (such as aircraft parts), up $17 million, wheat (up $13 million), and plastics (up $10 million), were offset by decreases in commodities such as fertilisers (down $62 million), soya bean and palm oil cake (down $14 million), and petroleum oils (other than crude), down $7 million. Consumption goods rose $38 million (3.7 percent). This was led by food and beverages for household consumption, up $31 million, and non-durable consumer goods (such as essential oils and cosmetics, tobacco, and retail medicines), up $23 million, but offset by a fall in semi-durable goods (such as textiles and clothing), down $25 million. In other categories of goods: passenger motor cars increased $5.8 million (1.6 percent) to $367 million. petrol and avgas was unchanged at $61 million. Four of our top five import partners have decreases in March 2016 The monthly movements for March 2016 for our top import partners (ranked by total annual goods imports) were: China down $18 million (2.6 percent), led by clothing (down $26 million), computers (down $12 million), and fertilizers (down $7 million), but offset by rises in telephones and cellphones (up $17 million). 10

11 European Union down $35 million (4.3 percent), led by buses (down $48 million), aircraft (down $46 million), and electrical machinery and equipment (down $9 million). Australia up $85 million (18 percent), led by rises in food preparations (up $25 million), crude oil (up $21 million), and wheat (up $13 million). United States down $68 million (14 percent), led by aircraft (down $20 million), motor vehicles (down $13 million), and fertilizers (down $11 million). Japan down $9.0 million (3.0 percent), led by motor vehicles (down $16 million). Goods trade surplus in March 2016 In March 2016, there was a goods trade surplus of $117 million (2.8 percent of exports). This compares with an average surplus of 13 percent of exports for the previous five March months. For the year ended March 2016, there was an annual trade deficit of $3.8 billion, the largest rolling annual trade deficit since April Exchange rate movements The Reserve Bank s trade weighted index (TWI) showed the New Zealand dollar was 0.2 percent lower in March 2016 than February 2016, and 7.8 percent lower than in March

12 Find data tables For more detailed data, see the Excel tables in the Downloads box. 12

13 Related links Next release Past releases Data quality Related information Next release Overseas Merchandise Trade: April 2016 will be released on 25 May Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form. The release calendar lists all information releases by date of release. Past releases Overseas Merchandise Trade has links to past releases. Goods and Services Trade by Country has annual goods and services trade in a single release. Data quality Period-specific information Overseas Merchandise Trade: March 2016 DataInfo+ Methodology used for this release and revisions to provisional values published in our previous release. General information Overseas Merchandise Trade DataInfo+ General methodology used to produce overseas merchandise trade statistics. Overseas Merchandise Trade concepts DataInfo+ Definitions of terms used in this release. Principles and protocols for producers of Tier 1 statistics Statistics in this release have been produced in accordance with the Official Statistics System principles and protocols for producers of Tier 1 statistics for quality. They conform to the Statistics NZ Methodological Standard for Reporting of Data Quality. Related information Global New Zealand Comprehensive annual trade statistics. Overseas Trade Indexes information releases Information on changes in the level of prices and volumes of New Zealand s imports and exports. 13

14 Balance of Payments and International Investment Position information releases Information on the value of New Zealand's transactions with the rest of the world and our international financial assets and liabilities. Gross Domestic Product information releases Three-monthly snapshots represent the country's income earned from production in New Zealand. Economic Survey of Manufacturing information releases Economic indicators of how the manufacturing sector is performing. Goods and Services Trade by Country information releases Comprehensive picture of economic trade between New Zealand and our main trading partners, by combining information on commodities and service types. Copyright and terms of use Includes our copyright, attribution, and liability statements. 14

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16 Tables See Overseas Merchandise Trade: March 2016 tables (Excel, 22 sheets, 514kB) for the following tables, which are also available from the Downloads box on this page. If you have problems viewing the files, see opening files and PDFs Overseas merchandise trade, actual values 1.02 Overseas merchandise trade, trade balance actual values 2 Overseas merchandise trade, seasonally adjusted and trend values monthly 3 Exports by destination 4 Imports by country of origin 5 Exports of main commodities 6 Imports of main commodities 7 Imports by broad economic category (BEC) group 8 Exchange rates 9 Related series, livestock, cars, and crude oil 10 Exports and imports by Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) 11 Exports by top 10 HS categories, values seasonally adjusted 12 Exports by top 10 HS categories, quantities seasonally adjusted 13 Imports by selected HS categories, values seasonally adjusted 14 Exports by top 10 HS categories, values trend 15 Exports by top 10 HS categories, quantities trend 16 Imports by selected HS categories, values trend 17 Overseas merchandise trade, seasonally adjusted and trend values quarterly 18 Exports by top 10 HS categories, values seasonally adjusted quarterly 19 Exports by top 10 HS categories, quantities seasonally adjusted quarterly Imports by broad economic category (BEC) group, values seasonally adjusted 20 quarterly Access more data on Infoshare Infoshare allows you to organise data in the way that best meets your needs. You can view the resulting tables onscreen or download them. Use Infoshare For this release, select the following categories from the Infoshare homepage: Subject category: Imports and Exports Next release Overseas Merchandise Trade: April 2016 will be released on 25 May