Erste Group Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking Conference September 2013, London

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1 Erste Group Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking Conference September 2013, London Erste Group Prepared for growth in Central and Eastern Europe Gernot Mittendorfer, CFO, Erste Group

2 Disclaimer Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED AND NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON, THE FAIRNESS, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. CERTAIN STATEMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE STATEMENTS OF FUTURE EXPECTATIONS AND OTHER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS THAT ARE BASED ON MANAGEMENT S CURRENT VIEWS AND ASSUMPTIONS AND INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR EVENTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IN SUCH STATEMENTS. NONE OF ERSTE GROUP OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, ADVISORS OR REPRESENTATIVES SHALL HAVE ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING FROM ANY USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENT OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT. THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SHARES AND NEITHER IT NOR ANY PART OF IT SHALL FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED UPON IN CONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER September

3 Presentation topics Macroeconomic snapshot Erste Group Balance sheet development Operating performance Asset quality review Update on banking tax Capital Update on Romania Outlook Appendix September

4 Macroeconomic snapshot CEE to benefit from strong fundamentals CEE continuously outgrows the Eurozone Growth mainly driven by exports Eurozone s weakness still a drag on current economic developments in CEE CEE will benefit from its favorable economic fundamentals CEE is an excellent region for exports with ideal location next to big consumer markets Strong industrial basis CEE converges to EU levels of productivity with still low labor costs Competitiveness expected to improve compared to Western Europe Relatively low indebtedness in % Real GDP growth (2013e) Eurozone avg: -0.3% -0.8 HR CZ HU SK AT RS RO in % Exports / GDP (2013e) HR RS RO AT CZ HU SK Source: Erste Research September

5 Macroeconomic snapshot Consumer confidence in CEE has improved in H Consumer confidence in CEE Q Q Q Q Q Q Q CZ Eurozone SK HU RO HR Source: European Commission September

6 Macroeconomic snapshot Falling inflation in a very low interest rate environment Falling inflation in all CEE countries Driven mainly by subdued fuel and food prices Hungary: inflation is at 38-year low reflecting administrative price reductions and lack of domestic demand Romania: better agricultural performance expected to drive down food prices in 2013 Low inflation expected to raise the purchasing power of consumers Very low interest rate environment Historically low base rates in Czech Republic (0.05%), Romania (4.50%), and Hungary (3.80%) Despite low rates currencies have performed relatively stable Low rates expected to support economic growth across the region in % CPI (YE) in CEE 2013F: RS: 5.4% RO: 4.7% SK: 2.5% HU: 2.3% HR: 2.2% AT: 2.1% CZ: 1.7% in % Key interest rates in CEE F CZ AT SK HU RO HR RS RS RO HU HR SK AT CZ Source: Erste Research, National banks September

7 Presentation topics Macroeconomic snapshot Erste Group Balance sheet development Operating performance Asset quality review Update on banking tax Capital Update on Romania Outlook Appendix September

8 Balance sheet development Strong customer deposit base Customer loans are the key asset component, amounting to 62% as of June 2013 Deposits from private individuals and SMEs represent 93% of customer deposits as of June 2013 Loan/deposit ratio improved to 106% as of June 2013 (2008: 115%) Substantial increase of equity (EUR 16.2bn as of June 2013) over time (2008: EUR 11.1bn) Balance sheet development % in EUR bn % 110% % 114% 115% 115% 113% 113% 107% 106% % 100% 40 50% Jun.13 0% Customer loans Customer deposits Loan/deposit ratio September

9 Operating performance Operating result reflects strict cost control Sound underlying operating performance Cost/income ratio reflects continuous and very strict cost control Relatively resilient margins despite the very low interest rate environment Net interest income and net fee income account for 95% of operating income 1, , Operating result (in EUR mn) CIR: 52.8% as of H NIM: 2.67% as of H , Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Post-provision profit Risk provisions September

10 Asset quality Declining risk costs but pressure on net interest margin Risk cost development 8% 6% 4% 2% 1.64% 1.69% 1.54% 1.31% 1.38% 1.37% 2.77% 1.20% 1.72% 1.19% 1.45% 1.56% 1.23% 1.33% 0% Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Group Austria CEE Net interest margin development 5% 4% 3% 3.05% 3.07% 3.16% 3.05% 2.90% 3.08% 3.17% 3.13% 2.87% 2.78% 2.82% 2.73% 2.74% 2.62% 2% 1% Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Group Austria CEE September

11 Update on banking tax Banking taxes have a significant impact on Erste Group Development of banking taxes in EUR million Slovakia Austria Hungary In 2011, banking tax in Hungary was offset by the costs of repayment of foreign currency loans at non-market rates September

12 Capitalisation Strong and vastly improved capitalisation Switch to IFRS in calculation of qualifying capital as of Mar 13; no material impact due to improved AfS reserve Final decision on regulatory treatment of savings banks minorities under Basel 3 passed by European Parliament: full recognition of minorities Development of CT-1 capital (excluding hybrid and adjusted for participation capital) in EUR bn CT1 (Basel 2.5, Jun 2013) excl. part cap, including capital increase: 10.7% Jun 13 Core tier-1 excl. minorities Minorities Core tier 1 ratio (CT1 ratio) = tier 1 capital excl. hybrid and after regulatory deductions divided by total RWA, including credit risk, market and operational risk. Based on Basel September

13 Capitalisation Capital position after capital increase Capital increase in the amount of EUR million conducted in July 2013 First Austrian bank which fully repaid the entire participation capital demonstrating strength of Erste Group Full repayment of government and private participation capital was executed on 8 August 2013 Erste Group expects to comfortably meet its targeted 10% fully loaded Basel 3 common equity tier-1 ratio from the end of 2014 onwards Full repayment of government and private participation capital combined with the recent capital increase will be EPS accretive from 2014 onwards 11% Core Tier 1 ratio (total risk) as at 30 June % Fully loaded Basel 3 CET1 at 10.3% (pro forma as of June 13, after capital increase) 10% 9% 10.1% 10.3% Transition in Romania for the calculation of RWA from standardised approach to IRB approach is expected to take effect in 2015 with a negative impact of approx. 40bps 8% Basel 2.5, ex part cap Basel 2.5, ex part cap, incl. cap increase Basel 3 fully loaded, incl. cap increase Core tier 1 ratio (CT1 ratio) = tier 1 capital excl. hybrid and after regulatory deductions divided by total RWA, including credit risk, market and operational risk. Based on Basel September

14 Update on BCR Restructuring well under way Operating income to grow in the mid-single digits in 2013 Strict deposit pricing discipline New current account product launched in Q4 2012; 215,000 bundles sold by June 2013 Focus on transaction banking and fee business Operating expenses to decline in the mid-single digits in 2013 with full effect of restructuring to be seen in 2014 Ongoing simplification and improvement of all structures in headquarter and subsidiaries Branch network optimisation; Group headcount target of 7,500 FTE by end of BCR: Operating result (in EUR mn) % 6% 4% 44.8% 45.6% 42.1% 4.8% BCR: NIM and CIR 53.8% 42.2% 39.2% 4.3% 4.5% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 60% 50% 40% 30% % % 10% -100 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 0% Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 0% Post-provision profit Risk provisions Net interest margin Cost income ratio September

15 Update on BCR Strong decline in risk costs Significant improvement of net result on lower risk costs and on release of deferred tax liability in Q2 13 Deferred tax liability amounted to EUR 127.7m Strong decline in risk costs Absolute NPL volume to peak and modestly decline in th consecutive quarter of improving NPL provisioning coverage; 60.4% as of June 2013 Risk provisions expected to decline significantly in 2013 BCR: Net profit after minorities in EUR mn Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q September

16 Presentation topics Macroeconomic snapshot Erste Group Balance sheet development Operating performance Asset quality review Update on banking tax Capital Update on Romania and Hungary Outlook Appendix September

17 Conclusion Outlook Erste Group expects a slight improvement in economic performance for Central and Eastern Europe in H2 2013, even though growth will remain moderate For 2013 Erste Group expects operating result to decline up to 5% compared to 2012 Lower operating income as a result of moderate loan demand and low interest rates Partially offset by lower operating costs Group risk costs are expected to decline by 10-15% in 2013 Mainly due to declining risk costs in Romania BCR is expected to return to profitability in 2013 Irrespective of extraordinary tax-effect September

18 Presentation topics Macroeconomic snapshot Erste Group Balance sheet development Operating performance Asset quality review Update on banking tax Capital Update on Romania Outlook Appendix September

19 Strategy A real customer need is the reason for all business Customer banking in Central and Eastern Europe Eastern part of EU Focus on CEE, limited exposure to other Europe Retail banking Corporate banking Capital markets Public sector Interbank business Focus on local currency mortgage and consumer loans funded by local deposits FX loans only in EUR for clients with EUR income (or equivalent) and where funded by local FX deposits (RO, HR & RS) Savings products, asset management and pension products Large, local corporate and SME banking Advisory services, with focus on providing access to capital markets and corporate finance Real estate business that goes beyond financing Potential future expansion into Poland Focus on customer business, incl. customer-based trading activities In addition to core markets, presences in Poland, Turkey, Germany and London with institutional client focus and selected product mix Building debt and equity capital markets in CEE Financing sovereigns and municipalities with focus on infrastructure development in core markets Any sovereign holdings are only held for market-making, liquidity or balance sheet management reasons Focus on banks that operate in the core markets Any bank exposure is only held for liquidity or balance sheet management reasons or to support client business Potential future expansion into Poland September

20 Strategy Customer banking in the eastern part of the EU Austria Clients: 3.3m Retail loans: 19.0% Retail dep.: 18.3% Branches: 981 Czech Republic Clients: 5.3m Retail loans: 23.7% Retail dep.: 27.4% Branches: 653 Slovakia Clients: 2.4m Retail loans: 26.4% Retail dep.: 25.9% Branches: 296 Leading retail and corporate bank with 16.6m customers in 7 geographically connected countries Favourable mix of mature & emerging markets with low penetration rates Potential for cross selling and organic growth in CEE Romania Hungary Croatia Serbia Clients: 3.4m Clients: 0.9m Clients: 1.0m Clients: 0.3m Retail loans: 18.1% Retail loans: 15.6% Retail loans: 13.7% Retail loans: 3.4% Retail dep.: 19.2% Retail dep.: 8.2% Retail dep.: 12.7% Retail dep.: 2.6% EU or EU candidate Branches: 562 Branches: 136 Branches: 150 Branches: 68 Indirect presence September

21 Valuation of banks Valuations differ significantly across Europe Selected European banks: P/BV UNI IS CA Raif SG DB OTP DAN SAN EG KOM BRE PEKAO BZWBK Light blue indicates CEE banks Source: Bloomberg; EG adjusted for capital increase and redemption of participation capital September