HURDLE RATES IV: IMPLIED ERP, COUNTRY RISK & COMPANY RISK. Where there is opportunity, there is risk!
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1 HURDLE RATES IV: IMPLIED ERP, COUNTRY RISK & COMPANY RISK Where there is opportunity, there is risk!
2 Set Up and Objective 1: What is corporate finance 2: The Objective: Utopia and Let Down 3: The Objective: Reality and Reaction The Investment Decision Invest in assets that earn a return greater than the minimum acceptable hurdle rate The Financing Decision Find the right kind of debt for your firm and the right mix of debt and equity to fund your operations The Dividend Decision If you cannot find investments that make your minimum acceptable rate, return the cash to owners of your business Hurdle Rate 4. Define & Measure Risk 5. The Risk free Rate 6. Equity Risk Premiums 7. Country Risk Premiums 8. Regression Betas 9. Beta Fundamentals 10. Bottom-up Betas 11. The "Right" Beta 12. Debt: Measure & Cost 13. Financing Weights Investment Return 14. Earnings and Cash flows 15. Time Weighting Cash flows 16. Loose Ends Financing Mix 17. The Trade off 18. Cost of Capital Approach 19. Cost of Capital: Follow up 20. Cost of Capital: Wrap up 21. Alternative Approaches 22. Moving to the optimal Financing Type 23. The Right Financing Dividend Policy 24. Trends & Measures 25. The trade off 26. Assessment 27. Action & Follow up 28. The End Game Valuation 29. First steps 30. Cash flows 31. Growth 32. Terminal Value 33. To value per share 34. The value of control 35. Relative Valuation 36. Closing Thoughts
3 Implied ERP in November 2013: Watch what I pay, not what I say.. If you can observe what investors are willing to pay for stocks, you can back out an expected return from that price and an implied equity risk premium. Base year cash flow (last 12 mths) Dividends (TTM): Buybacks (TTM): = Cash to investors (TTM): Earnings in TTM: E(Cash to investors) S&P 500 on 11/1/13= Expected growth in next 5 years Top down analyst estimate of earnings growth for S&P 500 with stable payout: 5.59% = (1+ r) (1+ r) (1+ r) (1+ r) (1+ r) (r.0255)(1+ r) 5 Beyond year 5 Expected growth rate = Riskfree rate = 2.55% Expected CF in year 6 = 108.1(1.0255) r = Implied Expected Return on Stocks = 8.04% Minus Risk free rate = T.Bond rate on 1/1/14=2.55% Equals Implied Equity Risk Premium (1/1/14) = 8.04% % = 5.49% 3
4 The bovom line on Equity Risk Premiums in November 2013 Mature Markets: In November 2013, the number that we chose to use as the equity risk premium for all mature markets was 5.5%. This was set equal to the implied premium at that point in Yme and it was much higher than the historical risk premium of 4.20% prevailing then ( period). " Arithmetic Average" Geometric Average" " Stocks - T. Bills" Stocks - T. Bonds" Stocks - T. Bills" Stocks - T. Bonds" " 7.65%" 5.88%" 5.74%" 4.20%" " 2.20%" 2.33%" " " " 5.93%" 3.91%" 4.60%" 2.93%" " 2.38%" 2.66%" " " " 7.06%" 3.08%" 5.38%" 1.71%" " 5.82%" 8.11%" " " For emerging markets, we will use the melded default spread approach (where default spreads are scaled up to reflect addiyonal equity risk) to come up with the addiyonal risk premium that we will add to the mature market premium. Thus,! markets in countries with lower sovereign σ $ Country Default Spread* rayngs Equity will have higher risk premiums # that 5.5%. σ & " Country Bond % Emerging Market ERP = 5.5% + 4
5 A Composite way of esymayng ERP for countries Step 1: EsYmate an equity risk premium for a mature market. If your preference is for a forward looking, updated number, you can esymate an implied equity risk premium for the US (assuming that you buy into the contenyon that it is a mature market) My esymate: In January 2014, my esymate for the implied premium in the US was 5%. That will also be my esymate for a mature market ERP. Step 2: Come up with a generic and measurable definiyon of a mature market. My esymate: Any AAA rated country is mature. Step 3: EsYmate the addiyonal risk premium that you will charge for markets that are not mature. You have two choices: The default spread for the country, esymated based either on sovereign rayngs or the CDS market. A scaled up default spread, where you adjust the default spread upwards for the addiyonal risk in equity markets. 5
6 ERP : Nov 2013 Andorra 7.45% 1.95% Liechtenstein 5.50% 0.00% Albania 12.25% 6.75% Austria 5.50% 0.00% Luxembourg 5.50% 0.00% Armenia 10.23% 4.73% Belgium 6.70% 1.20% Malta 7.45% 1.95% Azerbaijan 8.88% 3.38% Cyprus 22.00% 16.50% Netherlands 5.50% 0.00% Belarus 15.63% 10.13% Denmark 5.50% 0.00% Norway 5.50% 0.00% Bosnia 15.63% 10.13% Finland 5.50% 0.00% Portugal 10.90% 5.40% Bulgaria 8.50% 3.00% France 5.95% 0.45% Spain 8.88% 3.38% CroaYa 9.63% 4.13% Czech Republic 6.93% 1.43% Germany 5.50% 0.00% Sweden 5.50% 0.00% Estonia 6.93% 1.43% Greece 15.63% 10.13% Switzerland 5.50% 0.00% Georgia 10.90% 5.40% Iceland 8.88% 3.38% Turkey 8.88% 3.38% Hungary 9.63% 4.13% Ireland 9.63% 4.13% United Kingdom 5.95% 0.45% Kazakhstan 8.50% 3.00% Italy 8.50% 3.00% Western Europe 6.72% 1.22% Latvia 8.50% 3.00% Lithuania 8.05% 2.55% Macedonia 10.90% 5.40% Moldova 15.63% 10.13% Montenegro 10.90% 5.40% Poland 7.15% 1.65% Romania 8.88% 3.38% Russia 8.05% 2.55% Serbia 10.90% 5.40% Slovakia 7.15% 1.65% Slovenia 9.63% 4.13% Ukraine 15.63% 10.13% E. Europe & Russia 8.60% 3.10% Canada 5.50% 0.00% United States of America 5.50% 0.00% North ArgenYna America 15.63% 5.50% 10.13% 0.00% Belize 19.75% 14.25% Bolivia 10.90% 5.40% Brazil 8.50% 3.00% Chile 6.70% 1.20% Colombia 8.88% 3.38% Costa Rica 8.88% 3.38% Ecuador 17.50% 12.00% El Salvador 10.90% 5.40% Guatemala 9.63% 4.13% Honduras 13.75% 8.25% Mexico 8.05% 2.55% Nicaragua 15.63% 10.13% Panama 8.50% 3.00% Paraguay 10.90% 5.40% Peru 8.50% 3.00% Suriname 10.90% 5.40% Uruguay 8.88% 3.38% Venezuela 12.25% 6.75% La1n America 9.44% 3.94% Country TRP CRP Angola 10.90% 5.40% Benin 13.75% 8.25% Botswana 7.15% 1.65% Burkina Faso 13.75% 8.25% Cameroon 13.75% 8.25% Cape Verde 12.25% 6.75% Egypt 17.50% 12.00% Gabon 10.90% 5.40% Ghana 12.25% 6.75% Kenya 12.25% 6.75% Morocco 9.63% 4.13% Mozambique 12.25% 6.75% Namibia 8.88% 3.38% Nigeria 10.90% 5.40% Rwanda 13.75% 8.25% Senegal 12.25% 6.75% South Africa 8.05% 2.55% Tunisia 10.23% 4.73% Uganda 12.25% 6.75% Zambia 12.25% 6.75% Africa 11.22% 5.82% Bahrain 8.05% 2.55% Israel 6.93% 1.43% Jordan 12.25% 6.75% Kuwait 6.40% 0.90% Lebanon 12.25% 6.75% Oman 6.93% 1.43% Qatar 6.40% 0.90% Saudi Arabia 6.70% 1.20% United Arab Emirates 6.40% 0.90% Middle East 6.88% 1.38% Bangladesh 10.90% 5.40% Cambodia 13.75% 8.25% China 6.94% 1.44% Fiji 12.25% 6.75% Hong Kong 5.95% 0.45% India 9.10% 3.60% Indonesia 8.88% 3.38% Japan 6.70% 1.20% Korea 6.70% 1.20% Macao 6.70% 1.20% Malaysia 7.45% 1.95% MauriYus 8.05% 2.55% Mongolia 12.25% 6.75% Pakistan 17.50% 12.00% Papua NG 12.25% 6.75% Philippines 9.63% 4.13% Singapore 5.50% 0.00% Sri Lanka 12.25% 6.75% Taiwan 6.70% 1.20% Thailand 8.05% 2.55% Vietnam 13.75% 8.25% Asia 7.27% 1.77% Australia 5.50% 0.00% Cook Islands 12.25% 6.75% New Zealand 5.50% 0.00% Australia & NZ 5.00% 0.00% Black #: Total ERP Red #: Country risk premium AVG: GDP weighted average
7 EsYmaYng ERP for Disney: November 2013 IncorporaYon: The convenyonal pracyce on equity risk premiums is to esymate an ERP based upon where a company is incorporated. Thus, the cost of equity for Disney would be computed based on the US equity risk premium, because it is a US company, and the Brazilian ERP would be used for Vale, because it is a Brazilian company. OperaYons: The more sensible pracyce on equity risk premium is to esymate an ERP based upon where a company operates. For Disney in 2013: Region/ Country Proportion of Disney s Revenues ERP US& Canada 82.01% 5.50% Europe 11.64% 6.72% Asia- Pacific 6.02% 7.27% LaYn America 0.33% 9.44% Disney % 5.76% 7
8 ERP for Companies: November 2013 In November 2013, the mature market premium used was 5.5% Company Region/ Country Weight ERP Bookscape United States 100% 5.50% US & Canada 4.90% 5.50% Brazil 16.90% 8.50% Rest of Latin America 1.70% 10.09% Vale China 37.00% 6.94% Japan 10.30% 6.70% Rest of Asia 8.50% 8.61% Europe 17.20% 6.72% Rest of World 3.50% 10.06% Company % 7.38% India 23.90% 9.10% China 23.60% 6.94% UK 11.90% 5.95% Tata Motors United States 10.00% 5.50% Mainland Europe 11.70% 6.85% Rest of World 18.90% 6.98% Company % 7.19% Baidu China 100% 6.94% Germany 35.93% 5.50% North America 24.72% 5.50% Deutsche Bank Rest of Europe 28.67% 7.02% Asia-Pacific 10.68% 7.27% South America 0.00% 9.44% Company % 6.12% 8
9 The Anatomy of a Crisis: Implied ERP from September 12, 2008 to January 1,
10 An Updated Equity Risk Premium: January 2014 Base year cash flow Dividends (TTM): Buybacks (TTM): = Cash to investors (TTM): Earnings in TTM: E(Cash to investors) S&P 500 on 1/1/14 = Expected growth in next 5 years Top down analyst estimate of earnings growth for S&P 500 with stable payout: 4.28% (1 +!)! (1 +!)! (1 +!)! (1 +!)! (1 +!)! (1.0304) (!.0304)(1 +!)! = ! Beyond year 5 Expected growth rate = Riskfree rate = 3.04% Terminal value = 103.8(1.0304)/(, ) r = Implied Expected Return on Stocks = 8.00% Minus Risk free rate = T.Bond rate on 1/1/14=3.04% Equals Implied Equity Risk Premium (1/1/14) = 8% % = 4.96% 10
11 11 Implied Premiums in the US: % 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% Implied Premium Year
12 ERP : Jan 2014 Andorra 6.80% 1.80% Liechtenstein 5.00% 0.00% Austria 5.00% 0.00% Luxembourg 5.00% 0.00% Belgium 5.90% 0.90% Malta 6.80% 1.80% Cyprus 20.00% 15.00% Netherlands 5.00% 0.00% Denmark 5.00% 0.00% Norway 5.00% 0.00% Finland 5.00% 0.00% Portugal 10.40% 5.40% France 5.60% 0.60% Spain 8.30% 3.30% Germany 5.00% 0.00% Sweden 5.00% 0.00% Greece 20.00% 15.00% Switzerland 5.00% 0.00% Iceland 8.30% 3.30% Turkey 8.30% 3.30% Ireland 8.75% 3.75% United Kingdom 5.60% 0.60% Canada Italy 7.85% 2.85% 5.00% 0.00% United States of America 5.00% 0.00% North America 5.00% 0.00% Argentina 14.75% 9.75% Belize 18.50% 13.50% Bolivia 10.40% 5.40% Brazil 7.85% 2.85% Chile 5.90% 0.90% Colombia 8.30% 3.30% Costa Rica 8.30% 3.30% Ecuador 16.25% 11.25% El Salvador 10.40% 5.40% Guatemala 8.75% 3.75% Honduras 13.25% 8.25% Mexico 7.40% 2.40% Nicaragua 14.75% 9.75% Panama 7.85% 2.85% Paraguay 10.40% 5.40% Peru 7.85% 2.85% Suriname 10.40% 5.40% Uruguay 8.30% 3.30% Venezuela 16.25% 11.25% Latin America 8.62% 3.62% Western Europe 6.29% 1.29% Angola 10.40% 5.40% Benin 13.25% 8.25% Botswana 6.28% 1.28% Burkina Faso 13.25% 8.25% Cameroon 13.25% 8.25% Cape Verde 13.25% 8.25% DR Congo 14.75% 9.75% Egypt 16.25% 11.25% Gabon 10.40% 5.40% Ghana 11.75% 6.75% Kenya 11.75% 6.75% Morocco 8.75% 3.75% Mozambique 11.75% 6.75% Namibia 8.30% 3.30% Nigeria 10.40% 5.40% Rep Congo 10.40% 5.40% Rwanda 13.25% 8.25% Senegal 11.75% 6.75% South Africa 7.40% 2.40% Tunisia 10.40% 5.40% Uganda 11.75% 6.75% Zambia 11.75% 6.75% Africa 10.04% 5.04% Albania 11.75% 6.75% Armenia 9.50% 4.50% Azerbaijan 8.30% 3.30% Belarus 14.75% 9.75% Bosnia and Herzegovina 14.75% 9.75% Bulgaria 7.85% 2.85% Croatia 8.75% 3.75% Czech Republic 6.05% 1.05% Estonia 6.05% 1.05% Georgia 10.40% 5.40% Hungary 8.75% 3.75% Kazakhstan 7.85% 2.85% Latvia 7.85% 2.85% Lithuania 7.40% 2.40% Macedonia 10.40% 5.40% Moldova 14.75% 9.75% Montenegro 10.40% 5.40% Poland 6.28% 1.28% Romania 8.30% 3.30% Russia 7.40% 2.40% Serbia 11.75% 6.75% Slovakia 6.28% 1.28% Slovenia 8.75% 3.75% Ukraine 16.25% 11.25% E. Europe & Russia 7.96% 2.96% Abu Dhabi 5.75% 0.75% Bahrain 7.85% 2.85% Israel 6.05% 1.05% Jordan 11.75% 6.75% Kuwait 5.75% 0.75% Lebanon 11.75% 6.75% Oman 6.05% 1.05% Qatar 5.75% 0.75% Saudi Arabia 5.90% 0.90% United Arab Emirates 5.75% 0.75% Middle East 6.14% 1.14% Bangladesh 10.40% 5.40% Cambodia 13.25% 8.25% China 5.90% 0.90% Fiji 11.75% 6.75% Hong Kong 5.60% 0.60% India 8.30% 3.30% Indonesia 8.30% 3.30% Japan 5.90% 0.90% Korea 5.90% 0.90% Macao 5.90% 0.90% Malaysia 6.80% 1.80% Mauritius 7.40% 2.40% Mongolia 11.75% 6.75% Pakistan 16.25% 11.25% Papua New Guinea 11.75% 6.75% Philippines 8.30% 3.30% Singapore 5.00% 0.00% Sri Lanka 11.75% 6.75% Taiwan 5.90% 0.90% Thailand 7.40% 2.40% Vietnam 13.25% 8.25% Asia 6.51% 1.51% Australia 5.00% 0.00% Cook Islands 11.75% 6.75% New Zealand 5.00% 0.00% Australia & New Zealand 5.00% 0.00% Black #: Total ERP Red #: Country risk premium AVG: GDP weighted average
13 6 ApplicaYon Test: EsYmaYng a Market Risk Premium For your company, get the geographical breakdown of revenues in the most recent year. Based upon this revenue breakdown and the most recent country risk premiums, esymate the equity risk premium that you would use for your company. This computayon was based enyrely on revenues. With your company, what concerns would you have about your esymate being too high or too low? 13
14 Task EsYmate the ERP for your company (based on exposure) Read Chapter 4 14
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