Update of the 39th edition of the National Terrorist Threat Assessment for the Netherlands (DTN39), August 2015

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1 Update of the 39th edition of the National Terrorist Threat Assessment for the Netherlands (DTN39), August 2015 Thwarted attack on Thalys confirms current threat level The threat level in the Netherlands remains substantial, which means the chance of an attack is real. The threat, which is predominantly jihadist in nature, remains complex, with many different actors operating in an arc of instability on Europe s borders. Jihadist travel to Syria, which functions as a catalyst for this threat, continues steadily, as it has done in the past months. The threat is posed not only by international and local networks, but by lone wolves as well. Acts of violence by individuals with a jihadist background as the thwarted attack on the Thalys high-speed train on 21 August is presumed to be are in keeping with this threat assessment. In that attack, a man armed with a Kalashnikov assault rifle attempted to shoot passengers on the international train. Several passengers, including two American off-duty servicemen, managed to overpower the man, probably saving a great many lives. The investigation will have to determine whether the man was acting on instructions from others and/or had previously travelled to Syria. Jihadist threat to the Netherlands The conflict in Syria and Iraq is the primary source of the threat to the Netherlands. Despite efforts by the government to stop people from travelling to the conflict zones, individuals are still leaving the Netherlands at a rate of around five a month, on average. As of 1 August 2015, around 210 persons had left the Netherlands for the conflict zones. The number of returnees is around 35, while the number of persons killed in the conflict in Syria and Iraq is believed to be 38. The total number of Dutch jihadists currently in Syria and Iraq is around 130. Turkey as yet remains the main transit country from which jihadist travellers enter Syria and Iraq. Although they constitute a threat in principle, it appears that most Dutch returnees do not pose a violent threat in reality. In the first half of 2015 there were no returnees at all, possibly because it is difficult to obtain permission to leave the caliphate and because the prospect of criminal prosecution in the country of origin acts as a deterrent. Besides the small numbers of people leaving the Netherlands each month, there are also those who want to leave and may become frustrated when prevented from doing so. This group may pose a threat of attacks, possibly inspired by calls to violence by fighters in Syria. The information currently available does not indicate any systematic attempts by jihadist groups to enable their members to travel to Europe by claiming asylum. In individual cases,

2 however, these groups could try to exploit the asylum procedure for this purpose, or individuals planning to carry out terrorists attacks could use the asylum system to enter Europe. Equally, as regards the flow of migrants from the Middle East and North Africa, there is currently no information to indicate that there are large numbers of jihadists among them who are being sent purposefully to Europe. Certain people in the asylum procedure may, however, be susceptible to radicalisation on an individual basis. Jihadist threat to the West This assessment of a complex and real threat applies to the West as a whole. The threat to the Netherlands stems largely from this wider threat. The conflict in and jihadist travel to Syria and Iraq are prominent factors in this. Since the second half of 2014, ISIS has been actively calling for attacks against the West. Several attacks have been carried out in the West in ISIS s name since autumn ISIS tries to exploit these attacks for propaganda purposes, claiming that the attackers in the West were responding to its call to action. Western members of ISIS are also actively involved in planning attacks against the West. From Syria, they recruit sympathisers online, give instructions to attackers in the West and provide them with target information. Dutch role in combat groups in Syria and Iraq A growing number of Dutch nationals in Syria and Iraq are rising through the ranks within the groups they have joined. In addition, two Dutch nationals have been playing a prominent role in the propaganda activities of ISIS and Jabhat al-nusra (JaN). One of them is very likely to have been killed in August. Developments in Syria and Iraq ISIS s caliphate, which was proclaimed in late June 2014, has now been in existence for more than a year. Since its inception, the caliphate has expanded into several regions in the world. The most recent official expansion was in the Caucasus in June In Iraq and Syria, the core of the caliphate, ISIS has so held its ground. While it is true that the air strikes carried out by the anti-isis coalition in Iraq since August 2014 and in Syria since September 2014 are causing damage to the group and have halted its spectacular advance of 2014, in both countries ISIS has nonetheless managed to retain control over large areas. These developments are relevant because ISIS is still capable of attracting large numbers of jihadists from all over the world, including the Netherlands.

3 JaN is trying to adopt a moderate image, for instance by denouncing the atrocities committed by ISIS. It also emphasises that it is currently focused on the fight in Syria and not on carrying out attacks in the West. The moderate image that the group aims to project has generated a certain amount of support among Sunni Muslims in Syria, but is in fact nothing more than window dressing. For some time now there have been indications that JaN does actually have international aspirations. In July, the US is thought to have killed the leader of the Khorasan group in a targeted attack. The Khorasan group operates in Syria and focuses on carrying out attacks in the West. Developments in the global jihadist movement Since the split in its ranks began in April 2013, the global jihadist movement has changed radically. The rise of ISIS meant that al Qa ida s dominance in the movement could no longer be taken for granted. Currently, most young jihadists and aspiring jihadists choose ISIS over al Qa ida and its affiliated groups. ISIS s popularity is still growing. It should be borne in mind, however, that al Qa ida and its affiliates are still a relevant factor. While the al Qa ida core s position has been weakened by operations carried out by the US against the group s leadership and by ISIS s emergence, many groups affiliated with al Qa ida remain formidable combat units, even though some have lost members to ISIS. Particularly JaN in Syria and Al Qa ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen are faring well. In mid-august the al Qa ida core distributed an audio message by a son of Osama bin Laden, calling for attacks against American, Jewish and Western targets. It is striking that the al Qa ida core seems to be pushing forward a son of Bin Laden. Bin Laden is still very popular in jihadist circles, including among ISIS supporters. The al Qa ida core may be hoping that his son can boost al Qa ida s popularity and credibility. Developments in North Africa The increase in the number of jihadist attacks has made it clear that jihadist groups affiliated with ISIS and al Qa ida have had a negative impact on the security situation in the region, particularly in Tunisia and Egypt. The attack in Sousse (Tunisia) underscores the shift in focus towards Western targets in the region, which has been discernible for some time now. Following the attacks in Tunisia and Egypt, the governments of both countries have been taking more repressive action towards jihadism. This policy, which also affects more moderate Muslims, increases resilience to attacks but at the same time helps fuel jihadism in both countries. The destabilisation in North Africa, including Algeria to a lesser degree, is

4 caused in part by the chaos in Libya. Besides the presence of training camps throughout the country, jihadist networks in Libya have direct access to the illegal arms trade in the Sahel region. ISIS in particular has profited from the continuing chaos in Libya and is increasingly presenting the country as a potential destination for jihadists. At the same time, however, resistance to ISIS among other jihadist groups and the local population in Libya should not be underestimated. Developments in Somalia In Somalia, al Shabaab seems to be using Western jihadists for suicide attacks more than it has in the past. In the meantime there is growing discontent among the several dozen Western jihadists in Somalia over the way they are being treated by al Shabaab. As a result, several of them have been trying to leave the country in order to wage jihad elsewhere. This means that Somalia s appeal to Western jihadists is waning, a trend that has been discernible for some years. Salafism Due to the publicity the jihadist threat has been receiving in the Netherlands, there is also a growing focus on Salafism. After a period of stagnation Salafism s influence in the Netherlands is now growing, for instance in the form of radical preaching. This is the reason for enhancing the relevant package of measures. There are clear indications that the recent tougher approach towards Salafist preachers has had an effect on the Salafist movement in the Netherlands. It has reduced the number of Salafists preaching in the Netherlands, but it may also lead to some Salafists retaliating by adopting a more prominent, and possibly more radical, profile. Neighbouring countries are also endeavouring to bar entry to radical preachers. Belgium, for instance, recently revoked the residence permit of a radical preacher from the Netherlands, because he had allegedly been active in the extremist circles from which the terrorist cell in Verviers emerged. The man was due to preach at a conference in Helmond in January Due to the ensuing controversy, however, the mosque s governing board cancelled his appearance. If this preacher is forced to leave Belgium, he may return to the Netherlands and want to work here as an imam. Left- and right-wing extremism The threat posed by left- and right-wing extremism remains largely in line with the situation set out in DTN39. Although many xenophobic utterances are expressed on social media, aimed particularly at Muslims and asylum seekers, there has as yet been no physical violence directed against these groups, unlike in Germany where arson attacks on buildings housing asylum seekers still occur frequently. In Gouda, however, the site of a newly

5 planned mosque was occupied on 4 July by the far-right group Identitair Verzet (Identity Resistance). Several city councillors felt intimidated by this group in the run-up to a vote on the construction of the mosque. The far left still mainly concentrates on their resistance to Dutch asylum and immigration policy. They are also focusing on police violence and alleged ethnic profiling by the police, in part as a result of the death of an Aruban man in police custody in The Hague in early June. Resistance In general the Dutch people remain resilient to extremism and political violence. It is striking that, a year after the notorious pro-isis demonstrations, there have been no more physical manifestations of jihadism in the Netherlands. There has also been a decline in open manifestations of jihadism online. This lower profile among jihadists in the Netherlands is related to the government s measures, as well as a lack of organisation, leadership and willingness to take action. Most of its previous leaders have either gone to jihadist conflict zones abroad or been detained. Lastly, there are signs that the approach adopted with regard to foreign preachers has led to greater vigilance among parts of the Muslim community when it comes to inviting foreign preachers to the Netherlands. The government placed eight Dutch nationals on the sanctions list on 27 August. As a result, their assets have been frozen and it is prohibited to make funds available to these individuals. Since the start of the conflict in Syria the government has frozen the assets of a total of 27 persons and organisations.