How can African producers gain access to international markets?

Transcription

1 How can African producers gain access to international markets? Francois Traorè, President of Africa Cotton Producers Association Knud Larsson, Aarhus Karlshamn Peter Thagesen, Dansk Industri Steen Folke, Mellemfolkeligt Samvirke/Action Aid Denmark Lars Koch, IBIS

2 Hope and progress in Africa Average growth appr. 6% Africa has moved from being last to being number 3 amongst regions with the fastest reforms regarding investment climate (above Middle East and Latin America) Africans are more optimistic about the future than people in most other developing regions. Significant progress with regard to democracy, economic policy, anti-corruption, security. Examples of significant growth and trade success. Customs reforms across Africa are having an impact for example in Mozambique goods are now cleared up to 40 times faster

3 Trade creation in Africa Share of World Trade by Region, (percent) Source: IMF (2007). Regional Economic Outlook - Sub-Saharan Africa

4 Trade diversion in Africa Sub-Saharan Africa: Destination of Exports (percentage of all exports) Source: IMF (2007). Regional Economic Outlook - Sub-Saharan Africa

5 Trade diversity in Africa ( but more oil) Exports of Major Merchandise Categories, (percentage of all exports) Source: IMF (2007). Regional Economic Outlook - Sub-Saharan Africa

6 Multiple regional trade initiatives CEMAC - Cameroun, Centrafriquee, Congo, Gabon, Guinee-Equatoriale, Tchad COMESA - Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA): Burundi, Comoros, D.R.Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, Sudan, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe. EAC - East Africa Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda ECOWAS - Economic Community Of West African States: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cab Verde, Cote d'ivorie, Gambia, Ghana, Guinee, Guinee Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sieree Leone, Togo. IGAD - Intergovernmental Authority on Development: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda. SADC - South Africa Development Community: Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. UEMOA - West African Economic and Monetary Union: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo and Guinea-Bissau

7 But lack of regional integration

8 EU/Africa: Economic Partnership Agreements Negotiated since 2002 with six regions: West Africa/UEMOA, Central Africa, Eastern and Southern Africa/EAC, the Southern African Development Community/SADC, Caribbean/CARIFORUM, Pacific Seventeen of African states (including most non-least developed and some least developed countries (LDCs)) have EPAs, as have two Pacific non-ldcs; the Caribbean countries (CARIFORUM) have gone further and have agreed full EPAs The remaining African countries now either have the Everything But Arms (EBA) sub-regime in the case of LDCs, and the less favourable standard General Scheme of Preferences (GSP) for Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Gabon and seven Pacific countries The only African region with a uniform and common interim EPA is EAC. South Africa has its own agreement: Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA). Source: ODI (2008). The new EPAs: comparative analysis of their content and the challenges for 2008.

9 US/Africa: African Growth and Opportunity Act U.S. Exports to Africa U.S. Imports from Africa 50364, , , , , , Source: AGOA (2008): U.S. - African Trade Profile

10 Mixed prospects with WTO agreement ,9 32,6 4,5 2,5 0,8-0,6 0,4 7,9 96,1 Rich countries Developing countries East Asia and the Pacific South Asia Russia and Central Asia Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America World Welfare effect, bn US$ Source: Hertel and Winters (ed) (2005): Poverty and the WTO: Impacts of the Doha development agenda. World Bank

11 Where the old barriers disappear Small-holder participation in Kenya (% of exports) Mid-1980s to early 1990s Fresh fruit/ vegetables - Dolan and Humphrey (2001) 75% - Harris (1992) 75% Cut flowers - Kimenye (1995) 70-80% 10% Traceability Health standards Environmental standards Technical standards Social responsibility - Jaffee (1999) 50% Late 1990s } - Jensen (2003) 50% 5% - Dolan and Humphrey (2001) 18% Poverty impact assessment needed! Source: Jensen, M.F. (2004): Food Safety Requirements and Smallholders: A Case Study of Kenyan Fresh Produce Exports. Chapter IV, Ph.D. Thesis, The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University. Dever (2007). Case Study #6-5, "Small Farm Access to High Value Horticultural Markets in Kenya". In: Pinstrup- Andersen and Cheng (editors), "Food Policy for Developing Countries: Case Studies."

12 African agriculture on the move Annual growth in agricultural GDP/rural population in Sub-Saharan Africa(%) Annual agricultural growth rate: Sub-Saharan Africa 4% Developing countries 3% World average. < 2% Malawi Support to the poorest farmers to buy seeds and fertilizer has increased production, the cultivated area has gone up by 25% and made the country selfsufficient with grain Source: Verdensbanken (2008): World Development Report

13 Africa trade agreements and prospects Trade creation, diversion and diversity in Africa Multiple regional trade initiatives long way to to Improved access to the EU but also push for access in Africa Improved access to the US Mixed prospects from WTO agreement New barriers most important African agriculture on the move: Higher agricultural prices and improved conditions New challenges