Climate change facts and statistics in Iran Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar

Transcription

1 Climate change facts and statistics in Iran Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar Department of Geography and Natural Hazards, Research Institute of Shakhes Pajouh, Isfahan, Iran Abstract: Iran as a main country of Middle East is under intensive climate change impacts. In vice versa, high-level contribution of Iran to GHGs emissions depends on a major product of oil, largest reserves of gas and quick urbanization. In this manuscript, the statistical evidences on climate change were investigated in global, regional and national scales. For this purpose, the main increasing of annual temperature and GHGs emissions were considered. Then the governmental agreements toward the many international adoptions and conventions on climate change were reviewed from Rio 1992 to NY It seems that the further technological research and development on exploration the novel methods in renewable energy applications and mitigation of GHGs emissions will be necessary in order to future adaptations. Keywords: Climate change, Greenhouse Gas (GHG), IPCC, Iran 1

2 Introduction According to the synthesis report (SYR) of climate change in 2014, as the final part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Warming observation of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen (IPCC 2014). According to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index prepared by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend show a warming of nearly 0.85 C over the period 1850 to 2015 (Figure 1). This figure illustrates the change in global surface temperature relative to average temperatures. The 10 warmest years in the 134- year record all have occurred since 2000, with the exception of The year 2015 ranks as the warmest on record (NASA 2015). For climatic projection relative to , global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century ( ) is projected to likely exceed 1.5 C for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. In many mid-latitude and subtropical dry regions, mean precipitation will likely decrease, while in many mid-latitude wet regions, mean precipitation will likely increase under the RCP8.5 scenario. There are prospects from climate model simulations that a gradually global warming will be accompanied by changes in the variability and frequency of climate extremes. Official reports of the IPCC have made increasingly strong statements regarding the human influence on the global climate (IPCC 2007). According to the synthesis report of climate change in 2014, as the final part of the IPCC s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about Some of these changes have been linked to human influences, including a decrease in cold temperature extremes, an increase in warm temperature extremes, an increase in extreme high 2

3 sea levels and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a number of regions (IPCC 2014). IPCC SYR-AR5 reveals that the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since the pre-industrial era have driven large increases in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Between 1750 and 2011, cumulative anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere were 2040 ± 310 GtCO 2 (IPCC, 2014). According to The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) emissions time series through 2013, the global fossil-fuel carbon emission estimate, 9776 million metric tons of carbon, represents an all-time high and a 1.1% increase over 2012 emissions (CDIAC 2013). According to aforementioned realities, the present study aims to explore the facts and statistics of climate change in Iran due to reveal the importance role of international participation for national mitigation and adaptation strategies. With a total area of million km 2, Iran locates between East and North in the east of the Middle East (Figure 2). Climatic feature of Iran has mostly an arid and semi arid character in the mid-latitudes. Methodology For gathering the statistical data, some global and national official reports were used in this study e.g., IPCC (2007, 2012, 2014) and NCCOI (2010, 2014). Furthermore, several web pages were considered to access the climate change monitoring time series e.g., NASA (2015) and CDIAC (2013) remotely sensed data. Discussion Global Warming facts in Iran In this regard, the Middle East region is considered one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change impacts, because of its water scarcity as the highest in 3

4 the world (Elasha 2010). The IPCC report estimates an increase in temperature in Middle East of up to 2 C in the next years, and over 4 C for the end of the century. By the end of this century, this region is projected to experience an increase of 3 C to 5 C in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation (IPCC 2007). Due to lower precipitation, water run-off is projected to drop by 20% to 30% in most of Middle East by 2050 (Elasha 2010). Based on the national climate change project, Iran is projected to experience an increase of nearly 2.6 C in mean temperatures and a 35% decline in precipitation (NCCOI 2014). Hence, the future climate of Iran is mainly accordant in the severe climate change of Middle East. According to the IPCC (2012) for the end of the 21 th century versus the end of the 20 th century, the temperature extremes and projected the extreme indices in the Middle East and Iran indicate an increase in warm days (warm nights) and a decrease in cold days (cold nights). There are many studies on temperature extremes in Iran with respect to global warming conclude that the central and southern part of Iran are more sensitive to climate warming characterized by a significant increasing trend (~30%) of hot extremes and an increasing trend of minimum temperature (Darand et al. 2015). Therefore, many reports exist on the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in Iran with respect to climate change that observe a reliable decline in annual rainfall (~30%) especially in eastern parts (Nazaripour and Mansouri Daneshvar 2014). Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Iran The growth of CO2 emissions in the Middle East was the third largest in the world in and more than 3 times faster than the world s average (Elasha 2010). According to CDIAC (2013) CO 2 global monitoring data, three Middle Eastern countries are among the five highest national per capita CO 2 emission rates in the world for 2013 that includes Qatar (11.03 metric tons of 4

5 carbon per person), Kuwait (7.43), and Bahrain (6.46). Therefore, three major fuel consumers discharge 65% of the region's fossil-fuel CO 2 in 2013 includes Iran, ( million metric tons of carbon), Saudi Arabia, ( million metric tons of carbon) and Turkey (88.21 million metric tons of carbon). In ranking of the world's countries by 2013 total CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning, cement production, and gas flaring, Iran has total CO 2 emissions nearly to 168,251 in thousand metric tons of carbon (616,741 million tons of CO 2 ) as 7th in the world (Figure 3). However, Iran has national per capita CO 2 emission equal 2.18 as 47th in the world. The GHGs emission inventory was prepared for the years 2000 and 2010 based on the Iran s national climate change project, which has been published by National Climate Change Office of Iran (NCCOI 2010, 2014). The summary of direct and indirect GHGs inventory in Iran for both 2000 and 2010 are shown in Tables 1 and 2, respectively. As it is evident from this Table, the total CO 2 emission from different sectors is about 375,186 and 677,330 Gg in 2000 and 2010 respectively. The total CO 2 equivalent emission is estimated to be about 491,051 and 1,092,650 Gg in 2000 and 2010 respectively. According to the Tables, the total CO 2 equivalent emission in this time-period has increased nearly to 23% per year. The variations between total CO 2 equivalent emissions for each sector in 2000 and 2010 are presented in Figure 4. This figure reveals that the main emission sources in Iran belongs to energy and waste sectors. Therefore, the energy sector contribution to the total GHGs emissions in 2000 and 2010 has been changed from 90% to 86% respectively. In the energy sector, the urban-related resources such as residential, commercial and transport is contributed to approximately 50% of the GHGs emissions. Also, the great share of waste source is depends on the urbanization. This fact explores the urbanization effects on the climate change in Iran. Vice versa, the urban regions their selves are under the great impacts of climate change vulnerabilities such as greenhouse effect, heat islands, temperature inversions and anti-health disasters. Based on the Statistical Center of Iran, the 5

6 urban population of Iran was nearly to 52,519,000 from total 74,158,000 (SCI 2010). On this basis, about 70% of Iranian populations have settled in the urban regions. International Agreements on Climate Change In regard of climate change, many international adoptions and conventions on climate change have been agreed from Rio 1992 to NY 2016, which Iran has signed all the agreements. Iran signed the UNFCCC at the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in 1992, and ratified the Convention in It ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, and established the Designated National Authority (DNA) to implement Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in The National CDM Committee comprises nominated members from key ministries and organizations under supervision of the Department of Environment. Iran s first and second National Communications to the UNFCCC were submitted in 2003 and 2011, respectively. Furthermore, the third National Communication was prepared in 2013 in order to apply in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). In this regard, the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC) is responsible for implementation climate strategies and action plans based on the IPCC assessment reports. It comprises the deputy ministries of the most relevant ministries, under the responsibility of the Department of Environment. Iran participated in 21 st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC in Paris 2015 (COP21), adopted its agreement on 12 December 2015 in Paris and signed its treaty on 22 April 2016 in New York. Conclusion According to the research, the Middle East region is considered one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change impacts. The observations and projections of climate change in this region are more severe in relative to the world. Hence, Iran as a main country of Middle East is under intensive climate change impacts. 6

7 In vice versa, high-level contribution of Iran to GHG emissions depends on a major product of oil, largest reserves of gas and quick urbanization. Iran has always supported the international efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and to adapt to the impacts of climate change, based on the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) at the first Rio Earth Summit in Iran s national strategy for climate change that includes mitigation and adaption, and National Plan of Action (NPA) to combat dust and sand storms will be finalized in the near future by directing NCCC. All actions are intended with this Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in the three forthcoming national development plans (2016 to 2030) (NCCC 2015). The Iranian government policies on climate change concentrates on mitigation in the energy sector. It benefits from having one of the world s highest amounts of solar insolation. Hence, the government-sponsored Renewable Energy Organization of Iran has been developing applications for renewable energy. In this regard, the further technological research and development on exploration the novel methods in renewable energy applications and mitigation of GHGs emissions will be necessary in order to future adaptations. This target should be supported by international participation. References 1. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; CDIAC (2013). Carbon dioxide emissions time series. United States Department of Energy's (DOE). Available via: 2. Darand M, Masoodian A, Nazaripour H, Mansouri Daneshvar MR (2015). Spatial and temporal trend analysis of temperature extremes based on Iranian climatic database. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 8(10), Elasha BO (2010). Mapping of climate change threats and human development impacts in the Arab region. United Nations Development 7

8 Programme, Arab Human Development Report (AHDR), Research Paper Series, 51 pp. 4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press. 5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IPCC (2012). Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press. 6. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report (SYR). Contribution of Working groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. 7. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; NASA (2015). Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Avalable via: 8. National Climate Change Committee; NCCC (2015). Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. Department of Environment. Available via: 9. National Climate Change Office of Iran; NCCOI (2010). Second national communication to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Department of Environment. Available via: National Climate Change Office of Iran; NCCOI (2014). Third national communication to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Department of Environment. Available via: Nazaripour H, Mansouri Daneshvar MR (2014). Spatial contribution of one day precipitations variability to rainy days and rainfall amounts in Iran. 8

9 International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 11(6), Statistical Center of Iran; SCI (2010). Official report of Iran population. Available via: 9

10 Table 1: Summary of GHGs emissions inventory (Gg) for all sub-sectors in 2000, based on NCCOI (2010) Gas CO2 CH4 N2O CO NOx Source Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture Forestry Waste Total GHGs Emissions GWP NA NA Total CO2 Equivalent NA NA NA not available, Table 2: Summary of GHGs emissions inventory (Gg) for all sub-sectors in 2010, based on NCCOI (2014) Gas CO2 CH4 N2O CO NOx Source Energy Industrial Processes NE NE Agriculture NE NE Forestry 9278* NE Waste Total GHGs Emissions NE NE GWP NA NA Total CO2 Equivalent NA NA *based on 2000, NA not available, NE not estimated 10

11 Figure 1: the globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature ( ), based on NASA (2015) 11

12 Figure 2: Geographical position of Iran in Middle East, based on CDIAC (2013) 12

13 Figure 3: Position of Iran in ranking of the world's countries by 2013 total CO 2 emissions (in million tons of CO 2 ) based on CDIAC (2013) 13

14 Figure 4: Contribution of total CO 2 equivalent emissions for each sector in 2000 and 2010 (in Gg) based on NCCOI (2014) 14