President Obama s Hollow Climate Pledge

Transcription

1 President Obama s Hollow Climate Pledge The Paris climate agreement that the U.S. and other countries plan to sign this week is based on voluntary pledges by 195 countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). i In particular, President Obama pledged that the U.S. would reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 26% to 28% below 2005 levels in ii The purpose of this paper is to highlight analyses by other groups which show the Obama Administration s Paris pledge will not be met. iii State Department s Assessment of the Pledge A State Department report released in late 2015 shows that the Paris pledge cannot be met using current measures existing and recently finalized programs such as the following: EPA s light-duty Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards; Continued extension of tax credits for renewable energy; Appliance and building efficiency standards; Renewable fuel standards; Changes in agricultural practices; Land-use changes and forest carbon sequestration; and EPA s Clean Power Plan. iv According to the State Department, all of these measures, taken together, achieve only a 12% to 16% reduction below 2005 levels. v Therefore, the State Department concludes that additional measures will be necessary to have the potential to drive our emissions down to percent below 2005 levels by vi (Emphasis added.) According to State, these additional measures include EPA s proposed second-round heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy standards; EPA s yet-to-be proposed methane standards for existing oil and gas wells; Unspecified reduction[s] in industrial energy demand; A yet-to-be-negotiated international agreement to reduce HFCs; and Unspecified future state requirements for the electric power sector more stringent than the Clean Power Plan. vii Page 1

2 Most of the additional measures this Administration is counting on must be adopted by future Administrations (for example, methane standards for existing oil and gas wells). Some are assumed to be adopted by the states (for example, requirements more stringent than the Clean Power Plan). Even some of the current measures rely on future Congressional action (for example, tax credits for renewable energy). Many of these measures will face significant political and legal opposition. Therefore, the additional measures and their effects on future U.S. GHG emissions are unknown and highly speculative. Other Assessments of the Pledge Independent analyses also have shown that the U.S. will not meet President Obama s Paris pledge with current measures. These analyses have been conducted by a wide range of organizations, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Climate Advisers (a mission-driven policy and politics shop working to deliver a strong low-carbon economy ), and Element Consulting (led by a former Sierra Club official). viii The policies over which the Obama Administration has at least some control will result in GHG emission reductions of 11% to 17%, as contrasted to the 26% to 28% Paris pledge. ix This means the gap between the Paris pledge and reality could be as much as 1 billion tonnes in x In addition to these independent projections, the World Resources Institute (WRI) indicated in a recent working paper that actions taken to implement the [Climate Action Plan] are not enough to get the United States to its 2020 or 2025 climate goals. To meet these goals, the country will need to take action on additional sectors not yet addressed. xi Illustrating the Gap Slide 1 shows the reduction the U.S. pledged to achieve in 2025 compared to the projected reduction from current measures. The U.S. falls approximately 800 million tons short of its Paris pledge, even if the Clean Power Plan is upheld by the courts. xii Consequently, the U.S. would achieve only half of the Paris pledge with current measures. Moreover, including even the highly speculative additional measures sometime in the future fails to achieve the pledge. xiii Slide 2 shows the same reduction necessary to achieve the Paris pledge but compares the reduction to what happens if the Clean Power Plan is overturned by the courts. In this case, the U.S. will fall short of its pledge by 1 billion tonnes. xiv Page 2

3 As a consequence, the U.S. would meet only 40% of the Paris pledge. Again, including even the speculative additional measures fails to achieve the pledge. xv Slide 3 puts the U.S. emissions shortfall into perspective. An 800-million tonne shortfall (the smallest projected gap) is equivalent to, for example, Removing almost 150 million cars from the road (more than half the U.S. auto fleet); xvi or Shutting down over 40% of existing U.S. coal-fired and gas-fired power plants. xvii Even shutting down entire industries would not eliminate the shortfall. For example, shutting down six major U.S. industries agriculture; iron and steel; cement production; petrochemical production; lime production; and aluminum production would make up a lot, but not all, of the shortfall. xviii Yet another way to look at the size of shortfall is that it is equivalent to either Germany or Canada shutting down their economies and taking all of their cars and trucks off the road. xix April 20, 2016 i United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Historic Paris Agreement on Climate Change: 195 Nations Set Path to Keep Temperature Rise Well Below 2 Degrees Celsius, December 12, ii The U.S. INDC submission can be found at: U.S.%20Cover%20Note%20INDC%20and%20Accompanying%20Information.pdf iii Many legal scholars have questioned the Administration s ability to enter into the Paris agreement without obtaining Senate ratification. As can be seen in endnotes i and ii, the agreement contains targets and timetables for emission reductions, and as such, the Administration s failure to submit the Agreement to the Senate breaches a commitment made by the executive branch to the Senate in 1992 in regard to ratification of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. Groves, Steven, Bernard and Barbara Lomas Senior Research Fellow, The Heritage Foundation, Paris Climate Promise: A Bad Deal for America, Testimony before the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, United States House of Representatives, February 2, See also e.g., Testimony of Julian Ku, Maurice A. Deane Distinguished Professor of Constitutional Law, Hofstra University School of Law, Examining the International Climate Negotiations Hearing Before the Environment and Public Works Committee, United States Senate, November 18, 2015; Grossman, Andrew M., Baker and Hostetler LLP, Pitfalls of Unilateral Negotiations at Page 3

4 the Paris Climate Change Conference, Testimony before the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, United States House of Representatives, December 1, iv U.S. Department of State, 2016 Second Biennial Report of the United States of America Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, ( State Department Report ) v Ibid, Table 4 on page 34. vi Ibid, page 30. vii Ibid, pages viii American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF) Center for Policy Research Special Report, Success of U.S. Climate Pledge Depends on Future GHG Regulation of U.S. Industry, Other Sectors, by George David Banks, November ix Ibid. x Ibid. Climate Advisers projected a gap of 614 million ton nes (using the proposed EPA Power Plan); Element Consulting projected 349 million tonnes (also using the proposed Power Plan); and in its updated analysis, the U.S. Chamber projected a gap of 800 million tonnes (using the final Clean Power Plan as well as other final rules). (U.S. Chamber of Commerce, UPDATE: Mind the Gap: The Obama Administration s International Pledge Doesn t Add Up, 2015, Mind the Gap. ) If EPA s Clean Power Plan is overturned by the courts, its million tonne reduction will not occur, making the gap approximately 1 billion tonnes in xi World Resources Institute, Delivering on the U.S. Climate Commitment: A 10-Point Plan toward a Low- Carbon Future, June xii State Department Report, Mind the Gap, and Statement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on: Paris Climate Change Agreements to U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, February 2, xiii Statement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on: Paris Climate Change Agreements, to U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, February 2, 2016 xiv Ibid and EPA, Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Clean Power Plan Final Rule, August xv Statement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on: Paris Climate Change Agreements, to U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, February 2, 2016 xvi The average car emits about six tons of CO2 per year. Therefore, 800 million tonnes of CO2 is equivalent to the annual emissions from 147 million cars. There were some 253 million cars in the U.S. in 2014, so this shortfall represents the emissions from more than half of the U.S. auto fleet. xvii U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, Table 12.6, Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumption: Electric Power Sector, March 29, In 2015, coal-fired and natural gasfired power plants emitted billion tonnes of CO2. xviii In 2013, the agriculture sector emitted million tonnes of GHGs, iron and steel 53.0 million tonnes, cement production 36.1 million tonnes, petrochemical production 26.6 million tonnes, lime production 14.1 million tonnes, and aluminum production 6.2 million tonnes, for a total of million tonnes. U.S. EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: , Table 2-10, April 15, xix In 2013, Canada emitted million tonnes of GHGs and Germany emitted million tonnes. World Resources Institute CAIT Climate Data Explorer. Page 4

5 2 SLIDE 1. Even if the CPP is upheld, the U.S would achieve only 50% of the Obama administration s Paris pledge OBAMA PLEDGE 1.7 to 1.8 billion tonne reduction is needed in 2025 to achieve Administration INDC Obama pledge missed by more than 800 million tonnes REALITY 0.9 billion tonne reduction is forecast in 2025 if CPP is upheld 0

6 SLIDE 2. However, if the CPP is overturned, the U.S. would achieve only 40% of the Obama administration s Paris pledge OBAMA PLEDGE 1.7 to 1.8 billion tonne reduction is needed in 2025 to achieve Administration INDC Obama pledge missed by over 1 billion tonnes REALITY 0.7 billion tonne reduction is forecast in 2025 if CPP is overturned

7 SLIDE 3. The Administration s emissions gap is equivalent to Taking more than half of all U.S. cars off the road; or Shutting down 40% of all U.S. gas-fired and coal-fired power plants; or Shutting down Germany; or Shutting down Canada; or Even completely shutting down the U.S. agriculture, iron and steel, cement, petrochemical, lime, and aluminum industries would not make up for the shortfall N ote that these are for the s mallest e missions gap.