Climate change. Greenhouse effect. Greenhouse effect

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1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - UN scientific intergovernmental body of >1000 scientists Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I: Science Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change - to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation Climate change Fact 1: Greenhouse gases increase the temperature of the atmosphere Greenhouse effect Greenhouse effect Source: Prentice Hall Source: Prentice Hall 1

2 Greenhouse effect Greenhouse effect 79% N 2 20% O 2! 79% N 2 20% O 2! < 1%! H 2 O O 3 CO 2 CH 4 NO etc Some gases absorb Earth s re-radiated heat < 1%! H 2 O O 3 CO 2 CH 4 NO etc Source: Prentice Hall Source: Prentice Hall Wavelengths of solar radiation Ozone depletion (DOES NOT CAUSE CLIMATE CHAGE) HEAT CELL DAMAGE Ozone depletion (DOES NOT CAUSE CLIMATE CHAGE) From September 21-30, 2006 the average area of the ozone hole was the largest ever observed,10.6 million square miles. The blue and purple colors are where there is the least ozone Climate change Fact 1: Greenhouse gases increase the temperature of the atmosphere Fact 2: Humans have increased atmospheric greenhouse gases by 40% - the US has 5% of world population - the US emits 25% of global GHG Montreal Protocol: International agreement to phase out CFCs Concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in the troposphere peaked ~1995 and are decreasing in the troposphere and stratosphere. Ozone-depleting substances have very long lifetimes in the atmosphere (more than 40 years). Source: NASA 2

3 Climate change: greenhouse gases CO2 emissions and climate change Source: IPCC Special Report: CCS Summary for Policymakers Climate change: GHG & other factors CO2 emissions and climate change Source: IPCC Special Report: CCS Summary for Policymakers Climate change: greenhouse gases Climate change: Temperature 3

4 Climate change: summary Atmosphere!T,! CO 2 Climate change: summary Atmosphere!T,! CO 2 Climate change: projections Ocean!T,! CO 2 Climate change: projections 4

5 Decrease in sea ice Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level Change in weather patterns Shift in species distribution Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents Increase ocean CO2 " Increase ocean acidity Decrease in sea ice Decrease in land ice: ice sheets Decrease in land ice: mountain glaciers Decrease in land ice: mountain glaciers Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center, W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia 5

6 Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level ~ 20 in Sea levels rise fast: 1 inch in 10 years WASHINGTON Melting ice and warming waters By Robert S. Boyd have raised average sea levels worldwide by more Knight Ridder Newspapers than an inch since 1995, new data from space satellites and robotic submarines have revealed Decrease in land ice " Rise in sea level Shift in weather patterns Source: IPCC Source: Pearson Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents 6

7 Increase ocean temperature " Change in ocean currents Increase ocean CO2 " Increase ocean acidity CO2 + H2O # H2CO3 # H+ + HCO3- # H+ + CO32- Major planktonic calcifiers Coccolithophore Foraminifera acidity Pteropod Increase ocean CO2 " Increase ocean Loss of coral reefs Affect on marine life - Form weaker skeletons due to less carbonate (CO32-) - Dissolution of skeleton 1. Change in water temperature - Projected 2-5ºF increase in sea surface temp. by Corals expel algae (coral bleaching) when stressed - Increased chance for survival if conditions return to normal 2. Increased acidity J Hoogesteger! Source: NSF, Impacts of Ocean Acidification Mitigation Mitigation Increase GHG direct emissions between Energy supply:145% Transport: 120% Industry: 65% Land use changes: 40% Agriculture: 27% Buildings: 26% 7

8 Mitigation Stop Coal Climate change: Littell study 1) Douglas-fir is one of the most widespread tree species in Washington, the most important by far economically, and possibly one of the more climate-sensitive species regionally. How will future changes in climate alter Douglas- fir productivity in different parts of its range? 2) How will climate change affect species distributions, particularly in sensitive areas where species are near the edges of their climatic tolerances? 3) The area burned by fire is predicted to increase across Western N. America as a result of climate change, but what are the expectations for WA state and their consequences? 4) In the last decade, Mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks have increased in the West and appear to be correlated with warmer temperatures and drought. What are the specific consequences within WA State? Climate change: Stockle study Objective: Assess the potential impact of climate change and elevated CO2 on eastern WA agriculture (11% of the state s economy) Apples (irrigated) Potato (irrigated) Winter and spring, dryland wheat Pest outbreaks 8