ROCK THE VOTE A Survey of 518 Adults Age Nationwide 1 with an oversample of 75 Latino/as and 75 African Americans February 2008

Transcription

1 ROCK THE VOTE A Survey of 518 Adults Age Nationwide 1 with an oversample of 75 Latino/as and 75 African Americans February 2008 (n=518) (n=73) 2 (n=92) GENDER OF RESPONDENT Men Women PHONE USAGE Cell phone only Landline only Both (Not ascertained) In what month and year were you born? TERMINATE IF BORN BEFORE NOVEMBER 1978 OR AFTER NOVEMBER [CELL PHONE ONLY] 2. First, to confirm, have I reached you on your cell phone? Yes No... TERMINATE (don t know)... TERMINATE (refused)... TERMINATE 3. For your safety, are you currently driving? Yes...SCHEDULE CALLBACK No (don t know)... TERMINATE (refused)... TERMINATE 4. In addition to a cell phone, do you also have regular landline telephone service in your home? Yes No (don t know) (refused) Of the 518 interviews in the base sample, 170 respondents were reached on their cell phones and 348 were reached on a landline phone. 2 We interviewed a total of 154 Latinos and 144 African Americans. The smaller sample sizes here are a result of down-weighting these interviews to their actual percentage of the population of year olds.

2 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 2 of [IF YES IN Q4, ASK:] Do you use that landline telephone to make and receive calls, or is it only used for other purposes such as connecting to the Internet, connecting to a fax machine, or for business purposes? Use to make and receive calls Only used for fax, etc (don t know) (refused) RESUME ASKING ALL: 6. Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you think things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? [IF ANSWER:] Do you feel that way strongly or not strongly? Strongly - Right direction Not strongly - Right direction Not strongly - Wrong track Strongly - Wrong track (don t know) Right direction Wrong track I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people have. Please tell me which one of these you would most like the next President to do something about? READ AND RANDOMIZE: _jobs and the economy _education and the cost of college* _the federal budget deficit _Social Security and retirement _moral values _health care and prescription drugs _gas prices _taxes _immigration _Iraq _gay rights _terrorism and homeland security _government corruption and reform _the environment and global warming (don t know/other)

3 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 3 of 19 Now I'd like to ask you about some public figures and organizations. For each one, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression of that person. If you haven't heard of the person {6}, or if you don't know enough about that person to have an impression {5}, just say so and we will move on. [READ NAME] Do you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression of [NAME]? RANDOMIZE 8. _John McCain Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable No opinion Never heard Favorable Unfavorable _Hillary Clinton Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable No opinion Never heard Favorable Unfavorable _Barack Obama Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable No opinion Never heard Favorable Unfavorable

4 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 4 of _ The United States Congress Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable No opinion Never heard Favorable Unfavorable Often, things come up and people are not able to vote. Would state or local records show that you are currently registered to vote, or like many others are you not registered to vote at this time? Yes, registered No, not registered (ineligible) (don t know) ASK ONLY IF NOT REGISTERED TO VOTE IN Q What is the likelihood that you will register to vote for the election in NOVEMER for President, Congress, and other offices are you extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or like many other people, are you not very likely at all to register to vote? Extremely likely Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely at all (don t know) Likely Not likely RESUME ASKING ALL 14. What is the likelihood that you will vote in the NOVEMBER election for President, Congress, and other offices are you extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or not very likely at all to vote? Extremely likely Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely at all (don t know) Likely Not likely

5 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 5 of Thinking specifically about this year s election, how closely would you say you have followed the election EXTREMELY closely, VERY closely, SOMEWHAT closely, a LITTLE closely, or NOT AT ALL closely? Extremely closely Very closely Somewhat closely A little closely Not At all closely (don t know) Closely Not closely [ONLY IF Q15=1, 2, or 3] 16. Which of the following best describes why you PERSONALLY are following the election [extremely/very/somewhat] closely? You READ AND RANDOMIZE _are excited about a particular candidate _care a lot about a particular issue _feel that this election is going to be very important _want change _will be voting for the first time in this election (other) (don t know) FOLLOW UP WITH 40 RESPONDENTS [IF Q16=1-4] 17. Tell me more about that. Why exactly do [read answer from above]? PROBE FOR FULL, DETAILED ANSWER

6 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 6 of 19 RESUME ASKING ALL Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. [If agree/disagree: Is that Strongly/Not so strongly?] [RANDOMIZE] 18. _SSA: As a group, young people have the power to change things in this country. Strongly agree Not strongly agree Not strongly disagree Strongly disagree (don t know) Agree Disagree _SSB:I have the power to change things in this country Strongly agree Not strongly agree Not strongly disagree Strongly disagree (don t know) Agree Disagree _SSA: This year my vote will count Strongly agree Not strongly agree Not strongly disagree Strongly disagree (don t know) Agree Disagree _SSB: This year, I feel young people are making more of a difference than usual Strongly agree Not strongly agree Not strongly disagree Strongly disagree (don t know) Agree Disagree

7 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 7 of 19 SPLIT SAMPLE A 22. And, if the election for President were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE) _Republican John McCain and _Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided? [IF CANDIDATE:] Would you say you support that candidate strongly or not strongly? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, toward whom do you lean? McCain- strong McCain - not strong undecided lean McCain Clinton - strong Clinton - not strong undecided - lean Clinton Undecided-no lean (don t know, refused) McCain Clinton SPLIT SAMPLE B 23. And, if the election for President were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE) _Republican John McCain and _Democrat Barack Obama, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided? [IF CANDIDATE:] Would you say you support that candidate strongly or not strongly? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, toward whom do you lean? McCain- strong McCain - not strong undecided lean McCain Obama - strong Obama - not strong undecided - lean Obama Undecided-no lean (don t know, refused) McCain Obama

8 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 8 of 19 [IF NOT UNDECIDED OR REFUSED in Q22/23] 24. How excited are you about voting for [McCain/Clinton/Obama] in the fall? Would you say you are very excited, somewhat excited, not very excited or not at all excited? McCAIN SUPPORTERS Very excited Somewhat excited Not very excited Not at all excited (Don t know/refused) Excited Not excited OBAMA SUPPORTERS Very excited Somewhat excited Not very excited Not at all excited (Don t know/refused) Excited Not excited CLINTON SUPPORTERS Very excited Somewhat excited Not very excited Not at all excited (Don t know/refused) Excited Not excited

9 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 9 of If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, would you vote for [ROTATE:] _the Republican candidate, OR _the Democratic candidate, or someone else? Republican Democrat Someone else (won t vote on that race) (don t know/refused) Thinking about your own situation, what current economic issue is most important in determining your vote for president? READ AND ROTATE _Losing your job _Rising health care costs _Higher taxes _A secure retirement _Expenses like child care or college tuition _Every day expenses _The rising cost of gasoline _Affording a mortgage _Lack of jobs that pay a wage that allows you to support a family _The decline of the stock market _credit card or student loan debt (other) (don t know)

10 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 10 of Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S. should do now about the number of U.S. troops in Iraq the U.S. should send more troops to Iraq, the U.S. should keep the number of troops as it is now, the U.S. should withdraw some troops from Iraq, or the U.S. should withdraw all of its troops from Iraq? _Send more troops to Iraq _Keep the number of troops as it is now _Withdraw some troops _Withdraw all troops (don t know) Now thinking specifically about healthcare, do you think it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage, or is that not the responsibility of the federal government? Is the responsibility of the federal government Is NOT the responsibility of the federal government (don t know)

11 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 11 of 19 [SPLIT SAMPLE C] [SSD SKIP TO Q39] Now, I am going to read you a different list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. Regardless of the candidate you currently support, please tell me which candidate you feel each phrase describes better-- John McCain or Hillary Clinton. Here s the first one: RANDOMIZE [READ ITEM] Is that a better description of John McCain or Hillary Clinton? [FOLLOW UP:] Is that MUCH better or just SOMEWHAT better? 29. _Shares your values McCain much better McCain somewhat better Clinton somewhat better Clinton much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Clinton better _Honest and trustworthy McCain much better McCain somewhat better Clinton somewhat better Clinton much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Clinton better _Stands up for what they believe McCain much better McCain somewhat better Clinton somewhat better Clinton much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Clinton better

12 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 12 of _Has the right experience McCain much better McCain somewhat better Clinton somewhat better Clinton much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Clinton better _Is strong enough to be President McCain much better McCain somewhat better Clinton somewhat better Clinton much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Clinton better _Understands the problems of people your age McCain much better McCain somewhat better Clinton somewhat better Clinton much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Clinton better _Will bring change McCain much better McCain somewhat better Clinton somewhat better Clinton much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Clinton better

13 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 13 of _Will bring people together McCain much better McCain somewhat better Clinton somewhat better Clinton much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Clinton better _Will get things done McCain much better McCain somewhat better Clinton somewhat better Clinton much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Clinton better _Is a typical politician McCain much better McCain somewhat better Clinton somewhat better Clinton much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Clinton better

14 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 14 of 19 [SPLIT SAMPLE D] [SSC SKIP TO Q49] Now, I am going to read you a different list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. Regardless of the candidate you currently support, please tell me which candidate you feel each phrase describes better-- John McCain or Barack Obama. Here s the first one: RANDOMIZE [READ ITEM] Is that a better description of John McCain or Barack Obama? [FOLLOW UP:] Is that MUCH better or just SOMEWHAT better? 39. _Shares your values McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama somewhat better Obama much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Obama better _Honest and trustworthy McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama somewhat better Obama much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Obama better _Stands up for what they believe McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama somewhat better Obama much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Obama better

15 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 15 of _Has the right experience McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama somewhat better Obama much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Obama better _Is strong enough to be President McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama somewhat better Obama much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Obama better _Understands the problems of people your age McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama somewhat better Obama much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Obama better _Will bring change McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama somewhat better Obama much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Obama better

16 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 16 of _Will bring people together McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama somewhat better Obama much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Obama better _Will get things done McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama somewhat better Obama much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Obama better _Is a typical politician McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama somewhat better Obama much better (Both) (Neither) (don t know) McCain better Obama better [END SSD; GO TO Q49]

17 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 17 of 19 RESUME ASKING ALL: Thank you. The few remaining questions are for classification purposes only. 49. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or something else? [IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT ASK:] Do you consider yourself a strong (Republican/Democrat) or a not so strong (Republican/Democrat)? [IF INDEPENDENT ASK:] Would you say that you lean more toward the Republicans or more toward the Democrats? strong Republican not so strong Republican indep. leans Republican Republicans independent Democrats indep. leans Democrat not so strong Democrat strong Democrat dk/na/other What is the last year of schooling that you have completed? [DO NOT READ] 1-11th grade High school graduate Non-college post H.S.(e.g. tech) Some college Associate s degree (2 year college) College graduate Post-graduate school (don't know) Are you currently a student? IF YES: Do you go to school full-time or part-time? Full-time student Part-time student Not a student (don t know) Are you employed full-time? Yes No (don t know)

18 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 18 of Are you married, unmarried living with partner, single, separated, divorced or widowed? Married Unmarried living with partner Single Separated/divorced Widowed (Don t know/refused) Do you think of yourself as a born again Christian or do you not think of yourself that way? Born-again Christian not born-again (don't know) Just to make sure we have a representative sample, could you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking background? [IF NO, ASK:] What is your race - white, black, Asian, or something else? White Black / African American Spanish speaking/hispanic (Puerto Rican, Mexican, etc.) Asian Native American (other) (don't know/refused) During election campaigns, people sometimes look for information or get involved in different ways. In which of the following ways have you come into contact with political candidates or groups in THIS election? Have you [ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES] READ AND RANDOMIZE _attended a political event or rally _volunteered with a political campaign or group _signed a petition _visited a campaign website _watched an online video of a candidate _spoken with friends about the election _signed up on a candidate s list _forwarded or sent an to a friend about a candidate (other) (none)

19 Rock the Vote Post Super Tuesday 2008 page 19 of Many young people, especially students, move often and may not update their picture identification each time. Do you have government-issued PHOTO identification with your CURRENT ADDRESS? Yes No (don t know) Will this election be your first time voting? Yes, it s my first time voting No, I have voted before (I m not going to vote in this election) (don t know) LANDLINE SAMPLE ONLY 59. In addition to this landline phone, do you also have a cell phone that you use regularly? Yes No (don t know) REGION New England Middle Atlantic East North Central West North Central South Atlantic East South Central West South Central Mountain Pacific