Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA

Transcription

1 Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA Q Presentation 21 April 2016

2 Highlights Q Launched new routes to/from Paris and the USA (LAX, NYC and FLL) and a short haul base in Rome, Italy Norwegian Reward reached 4 million members Tentative approval of NAI by the US Department of Transportation (DoT) Added five new aircraft and one Dreamliner to the fleet Clean EBITDA improved by NOK 400 million 2

3 5.8 million passengers in Q (+18 %) % Passengers (million) Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Pax (mill) 1,3 2,0 2,1 2,7 3,1 3,6 3,9 4,9 4,9 5,8 3

4 Q1 load factor up to 85 % (+2 p.p.) 17 % growth in capacity (ASK) 21 % growth in traffic (RPK) Average flying distance increased by 4 % ,8 % 77,2 % ASK 74,8 % 75,1 % 74,3 % Load Factor 77,2 % 76,1 % 77,3 % 83,0 % Load +2 p.p. 85,1 % 100% 90% 80% % % % Available Seat KM (ASK) Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q % 30% 20% 10% 0% Load Factor ASK Load Factor 74,8 % 77,2 % 74,8 % 75,1 % 74,3 % 77,2 % 76,1 % 77,3 % 83,0 % 85,1 % 4

5 Holding or growing market shares in all key airports (last 12 months) + 1,034,000 pax 41 % mkt share ,000 pax 22 % mkt share + 398,000 pax 17 % mkt share + 566,000 pax 10 % mkt share + 680,000 pax 4 % mkt share ,000 pax 13 % mkt share Oslo Arlanda Copenhagen Helsinki Gatwick Spanish bases Mkt. Size: 25 mill Mkt. Size: 21 mill Mkt. Size: 27 mill Mkt. Size: 17 mill Mkt. Size: 40 mill Mkt. Size: 135 mill Sources: Avinor, Swedavia, Copenhagen Airports, Finavia, Gatwick Airport, Aena Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 5

6 23 % revenue growth in Q1 25 % growth in international revenue, + 15 % for domestic Scandinavia Unit revenue up by 5 % driven by yield (+2 %) and load (+2 p.p) offset by increased stage length % Domestic revenue International revenue Total Revenues NOK million Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Revenues Domestic revenue % y.o.y. chg 20 % -1 % -5 % 15 % International revenue % y.o.y. chg 25 % 35 % 21 % 25 % 6

7 19 % growth in ancillary revenue in Q1 16 % share of Group revenue 1 % growth per passenger NOK 136 NOK 138 Flexibility/ modifications Flexibility/ modifications Pre-sold packages (bundle) Pre-sold packages (bundle) Seating Seating Optional extras Baggage Baggage Other Ancillary Other Ancillary Q1 15 Q1 16 7

8 Strongest growth in USA and Spain Growing share of revenue in USD, GBP and Euro Norway now reduced to 35 % of group passengers Over 40% of passengers booking from outside Scandinavia USA Spain Hungary France Finland Hungary France Italy Poland Germany USA Other Norway Sweden UK UK Norway Italy Denmark Denmark Finland 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Spain Sweden 8

9 New corporate contracts boosting sales Revenue from corporate agreements Q1: Norway up by 22 % y-o-y Sweden up by 17 % y-o-y Corporate contracts signed in Q1 2016: Forsvaret (Norwegian army) Four year contract from February for 17,000 employees (Norwegian only) NAV (Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration) Two year contract + option to extend 2 x 1 year, for 19,000 employees (Norwegian only) HINAS (Norwegian health care system) Three year contract from April, 13 domestic routes for employees and patients Change Retail 65 % Consultants 38 % Construction 24 % Health Care 18 % IT/Telecom 13 % Bank/Finace 13 % Public sector 10 % Industrials 9 % Media -2 % Oil/Offshore -4 % 9

10 Reported earnings: lower fuel offset by currency (NOK million) Q1 15 Q1 16 Change Revenue EBITDAR EBITDA Pre-tax profit (EBT) Net profit EBITDAR development Q1 500 EBT development Q NOK million NOK million Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 EBITDAR margin 15 % -6 % 2 % 1 % EBT margin -6 % -23 % -19 % -20 % 10

11 Underlying EBITDA* up by NOK 400 million NOK million Q Q chg Revenue EBITDA as reported Other losses/gains EBITDA excl other losses/gains Non-recurring items: - strik e wetlease Sum non-recurring items Clean EBITDA Margin clean EBITDA -9,3 % 0,7 % * Underlying (clean) EBITDA adj for other losses/gains and non-recurring items 11

12 Unit cost cut by 5 % CASK ex fuel +1 % to NOK 0.35 on currency Operating cost EBITDA level per ASK (CASK) 0,55 0,50 0,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 0,16 CASK excl fuel 0, Fuel share of CASK 0,11 0,12 0,15 0,13 0,10 0,14 0,07 0,46 0,45 0,40 0,37 0,44 0,36 0,35 0,35 0,33 0,32 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Other losses / (gains) is not included in the CASK concept as it primarily contains hedge gains/losses offset under financial items* as well as other non-operational income and/or cost items such as gains on the sale of spare part inventory and unrealized foreign currency effects on receivables/payables and (hedges of operational expenses). *Norwegian hedges USD/NOK to counter foreign currency risk exposure on USD denominated borrowings translated to the prevailing currency rate at each balance sheet date. Hedge gains and losses are according to IFRS recognized under operating expenses (other losses/ (gains) while foreign currency gains and losses from translation of USD denominated borrowings are recognized under financial items. 12

13 Fuel share of opex reduced to 15 % (23% in Q115) 0,16 Depr. 4 % Sales/ distrib. 2 % Fuel 15 % 0,14 Other Flight ops. exp. 4 % Gen. and adm. exp. 5 % Personnel 16 % 0,12 0,10 Fuel Technical 7 % Leasing 12 % Handling 10 % Airport & ATC 12 % 0,08 0,06 Personnel Airport/ATC 7 % negative impact of currency Fuel hedging: 50 % of % of ,04 0,02 0,00 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling 12 mths rolling Handling Leasing Other Technical Depreciation Sales & Distribution 13

14 NOK 1 bn higher cash-flow from operations Invested NOK 1.7 bn in new B aircraft NOK 3.2 billion in cash at the end of Q1 Q1 Q1 NOK million Change Profit before tax Depreciation Air traffic settlement liabilities Change working capital Net cash flows from operating activities Net cash flows from investing activities Net cash flows from financial activities Foreign exchange effect on cash Net change in cash and cash equivalents Cash and cash equivalents, end of period

15 Net debt reduced by NOK 1 bn in the quarter Added five new on balance + PDP s NOK 16 bn net debt (reduced from NOK 17bn at the end of 2015) Equity ratio of 6 % (11 % incl. market value of Bank Norwegian) Aircraft Aircraft Financing NOK million Aircraft PDP Other assets Receivables Cash Q1 15 Q1 16 PDP and bonds Other liabilities Pre-sold tickets Equity Q1 16 Q

16 Aircraft financing on track Expected capex (all aircraft incl. PDP) USD 1.1 bn for 2016 (unchanged) USD 2 bn for 2017 USD 2 bn for 2018 PDP financing PDP financing with backstop lease B (in 1H 2016) PDP Financing for 50 A320 Neo s in place Negotiating PDP financing for Boeing deliveries Long-term financing Commercial financing of 6 B Ex-Im and ECA EETC 16

17 Top modern fleet with an average age of 3.6 years 2016: Deliveries seats Deliveries ,162 seats Re-deliveries seats B788/B789 Owned B788/B789 Leased A320neo owned B737 MAX 8 owned B738 owned B738 S&LB B738 leased B733 owned B733 leased M80 leased

18 Norwegian Group 2020: Long-haul to be more than 1.5x today s short-haul operation An average 20 % annual growth for the period (CAGR 10 % for SH, 40 % for LH) An estimated 130 billion ASK in : CAGR 20 % Million seat-kilometres (ASK) : CAGR 30% E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Short Haul Long Haul Based on the current fleet plan. Aircraft replaced after 8 years. Excess capacity leased out or sold. 18

19 Summer 2016: 18 crew bases and 106 aircraft Short haul: 96 aircraft Long haul: 10 aircraft FLL JFK LGW BKK NO 738: 33 BGO SVG OSL TRD SE 738: 13 ARN FI 738: 5 HEL UK 738: 10 DK 738: 8 CPH LGW IT 738: 2 ES 738: 25 BCN FCO MAD AGP ALC TFS LPA 19

20 Launched new long haul routes to Paris 20

21 Outlook for 2016 Markets and business Soft macro and passenger tax to be introduced in Norway, strong competition in Denmark Stable in other key markets Positive momentum for long-haul Group bookings ahead of last year, capacity adjusted An estimated production growth (ASK) of 18 % (unchanged) Short-haul + 12 %, Long-haul + 40 % Increasing distance driven by mix (long-haul) Unit cost in the area of NOK 0.37 (unchanged) Assumptions: Fuel price of USD 350 per metric ton, USD/NOK 8.25, EUR/NOK 9.00 Based on the current route portfolio and planned production 25 aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2016 Seventeen direct buy B (returning four leased ) Four leased B787-9 Dreamliners Four direct buy A320Neo (to be leased out) 21

22 Summary Won several corporate agreements as businesses want to reduce travel expenses NAI has received tentative approval from DoT Bookings ahead of last year Financing on-track Unchanged guidance for 2016 on production and unit cost Bank Norwegian to be listed on OSE 22

23 Norwegian operates 447 routes to 138 destinations From bases in the USA & THAILAND From bases in SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND From bases in NORWAY From bases in SPAIN From the UK base 23