Section 4. Complex and Diverse Regional Conflicts

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1 Section 4. Complex and Diverse Regional Conflicts Complex and diverse regional conflicts are erupting around the world. The characteristics of regional conflicts differ from one conflict to another, whether they be inter-state or intra-state conflicts. They may result from various ethnic, religious, territorial or resource-related problems, and may range in form from armed conflict to sustained armed antagonism. The resultant human rights violations, refugees, hunger, poverty and terrorism have at times become international issues. For that reason, it has become more important for the international community to determine the character of complex and diverse conflicts and seek out approaches appropriate to their character, including approaches involving international frameworks. (See Fig. I-1-4-1) Israel Israel, Syria Israel, Lebanon Colombia Kosovo Fig. I Main Areas of Conflicts and Disputes Cyprus Georgia Chechnya Nagomo-Karabakh Iraq Korean Peninsula Thailand Spratly Islands The Philippines (Mindanao) Indonesia (Irian Jaya) Algeria Cote d Ivoire Nigeria Uganda Democratic Republic of the Congo Sudan Somalia Ethiopia Myanmar Nepal Sri Lanka India, Pakistan Afghanistan Sources: Military Balance (2007) and others The Middle East has witnessed four wars between Israel and Arab states or Palestinians since the foundation of Israel in The Oslo Agreement concluded in 1993 marked the start of a peace process through negotiations, but the Israelis and Palestinians subsequently suspended their negotiations due to the intifada that started in 2000 and resulted in the exchange of violence between the two parties. In 2003, both the Israelis and Palestinians accepted a Road Map that laid out a course leading to the establishment of a Middle East peace initiative between the Israelis and the Palestinians on the principle of the peaceful coexistence of two nations. However, the implementation of the Road Map has not yet been promoted. The Israelis would not make any compromise regarding their own security and demands the Palestinians to disband terrorist groups. Furthermore, the Israeli government takes a stern approach toward the Palestinians, saying that in the event that they do not make appropriate responses, the government will no longer regard the Palestinians as its dialogue partner and unilaterally build a barrier and draw de facto borders. On the Palestinian side, the Islamic fundamentalist organization Hamas, which does not recognize Israel and which advocates a continuation of armed conflict against Israel, won the Palestine Legislative Council elections of January 2006 and established a Hamas-led administration in March

2 In June 2006, following the capture of Israeli soldiers by Palestinian militants in Gaza, the Israeli military invaded the Gaza area, from which it had withdrawn in After about five months of fighting, which included air strikes by the Israeli military and rocket attacks by Palestinian armed groups, a ceasefire went into effect between the Israelis and the Palestinians in Gaza in November Within the Palestinian ranks, however, the rivalry between Fatah, a mainstream part of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and Hamas intensified, and clashes among Palestinians resulted in deaths and political chaos. To bring this dispute to an end, an accord reached in Mecca in February 2007 led to the formation of a unified Palestinian government by Fatah and Hamas in March. In May 2007, however, Fatah and Hamas clashed, Hamas attacked the Israelis, and the Israeli military resumed its military operations. The situation thus does not allow premature conclusions. Israel has not yet signed peace treaties with Syria and Lebanon. There are different stances between Israel and Syria on the returning of the Golan Heights that Israel occupied after the 1967 Arab-Israel War, and the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which observes the implementation of ceasefire and disengagement between two nations, is deployed. The July 2006 capture of Israeli soldiers by the Shiite Islamic organization Hezbollah near the border between Israel and Lebanon was followed by air attacks against Lebanon and the insertion of ground troops by Israel. Hezbollah declared a do-or-die resistance and launched rocket attacks against Israeli territory. Fierce fighting continued for about a month between the Israeli military forces and Hezbollah, and both Israel and Lebanon suffered major damage. Israeli air strikes on Qana in southern Lebanon that killed numerous children and other civilians sparked more urgent efforts by the international community to bring about a cessation of hostilities. The U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 called for a cessation of aggression, and this ceasefire went into effect on August 14. In line with this resolution, an expanded United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has been deployed alongside the Lebanese military in southern Lebanon to monitor the ceasefire. India and Pakistan gained their independence from the former British India after World War II, but three large-scale armed conflicts have broken out between the two countries over Kashmir and other issues. (See Chapter 2, Section 6) On the Korean Peninsula, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and North Korea are confronting each other with tension across the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), with a total of approximately 1.5 million ground forces; this military confrontation has been ongoing since the end of the Korean War ( ). (See Chapter 2, Section 2) In Nepal, armed conflict with the Maoist faction of the Nepal Communist Party has caused a great number of casualties since A democratization movement produced a new government in April 2006, and a comprehensive peace agreement was signed in November between this government and the Maoists. Following this agreement, the United Nations Political Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) has been deployed in accordance with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1740, and among its duties are monitoring the status of weapons and soldiers. In Sudan, disputes over local autonomy and developmental disparities led in 2003 to intensified fighting between the Arab government and the African anti-government forces (both Muslim) in Darfur region of western Sudan. The Arab militia known as Janjaweed has continued attacks against local African residents, creating large numbers of internally displaced persons and an outflow of refugees into neighboring Chad. The United Nations and the rest of the international community have been treating the Darfur issue as a serious humanitarian crisis. Recently it seems that this conflict is spilling over into Chad and the Central African Republic, and showing signs of escalating into an international conflict. To settle the Darfur conflict, the African Union (AU) has dispatched the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) to mediate negotiations for peace between the government and rebels. The government and the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army 20

3 (SLM/A), one of the major rebel groups, signed the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) in May 2006, and efforts are ongoing to persuade rebels who did not accept the DPA. On the other hand, the Sudanese government has consistently remained noncommittal about (then) U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan s November 2006 proposal on the African Union-United Nations hybrid operation of about 20,000 troops, the final stage of the U.N. s assistance program for AMIS. Somalia had been in a state of anarchy since 1991, but in 2002, a peace process was promoted by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and in January 2005, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was established in Nairobi and members of the TFG returned to Somalia in June Last year, fighting intensified between the TFG and the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), an Islamic fundamentalist organization. In January 2007, the TFG forces and the Ethiopian military, which was deployed in Somalia in response to the TFG s request for support, brought under control the south central area including the capital of Mogadishu. In February 2007, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 1744 and based on this resolution, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) has been deployed. There were, however, armed attacks against the TFG, Ethiopian military, and AMISOM, and the situation remains unclear. 21

4 Notes 1) During his February 2007 trip to Pakistan to meet with President Musharraf, U.S. Vice President Cheney clearly expressed apprehensions of regrouping of Al-Qaeda in the tribal areas of Pakistan and requested that Pakistan step up its efforts against Al Qaeda. 2) Under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1386 (December 20, 2001) the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was established with the principal mission of maintaining security in Kabul and surrounding areas. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1510 (October 13, 2003) gradually expanded the area of deployment from December In October 2006, it covered the entire territory of Afghanistan. As of May 2007, approximately 41,000 troops from 37 countries have been sent to the ISAF. 3) Three of the four suicide bombers were sons of Pakistani immigrants and the fourth was born in Jamaica; all were British nationals. 4) On the other hand, in February 2006, the German Federal Constitutional Court decided that the provision of the Aviation Security Law stipulating that hijacked airplanes may be shot down is unconstitutional and should be repealed. Thus, views on anti-terrorism measures vary from one country to another. 5) In November 2005 the U.S. military withdrew from Karshi-Khanabad Base in Uzbekistan at the request of the Uzbek government. 6) For instance, in October 2002, terrorist bomb attacks in two clubs on the island of Bali killed 202 people. In October 2005, terrorist bomb attacks against restaurants and other locations on the island of Bali killed 23 persons. 7) The treaty took effect in ) The United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, France, and China. France and China signed the NPT in ) Article 6 of the NPT sets out the obligation of signatory countries to negotiate nuclear disarmament in good faith. 10) South Africa, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus 11) Israel, India and Pakistan are nonmembers. 12) A means of attacking a country s most vulnerable points other than by conventional weapons of war (e.g., weapons of mass destruction, ballistic missiles, terrorist attacks, cyber attacks) 13) Former Defense Agency, Basic Concept for Dealing with Biological Weapons (January 2002) 14) Mustard gas is a slow-acting erosion agent. Tabun and sarin are swift-acting nerve agents. 15) It was reported that a Kurdish village was attacked with chemical weapons in 1988, killing several thousand people. 16) When this weapon is launched or exploded, two kinds of chemical agents are mixed, generating a lethal chemical agent. The handling and storing of this weapon is easy because its lethality is low before being used. 17) In the July 2006 conflict between Israel and Lebanon, it is believed that Hizbollah used an anti-ship missile in attacking an Israeli naval vessel. 18) U.S. Department of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response (January 2001) 19) Dirty bombs are intended to cause radioactive contamination by scattering radioactive substances. 20) In May 2004, a man regarded as the right hand of Dr. A.Q. Khan from the same network was arrested in Malaysia. 21) Statement at a press conference with Japanese reporters (September 29, 2004) 22) James A. Kelly, then U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said before the Hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in March 2004: There are no longer any military dealings between North Korea and Pakistan. However, it was obviously not the case in the past Iran had 22

5 some kind of cooperative relationship [with North Korea] in military affairs. What I can say in public is limited, he added. 23) Testimony of then Director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency George J. Tenet before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (February 24, 2004) 24) Accusation made by the Deputy Chairman of Ukraine s Parliamentary Committee on Combating Organized Crime and Corruption (February 2, 2005) 25) This urged Iran to abandon its nuclear fuel cycle in exchange for assistance in a civilian-use nuclear power program that would guarantee a fuel supply for light-water reactors, the provision of civilian aircraft and parts, and support for Iran s admission to the World Trade Organization (WTO) 26) It is said that the uranium enrichment level for nuclear power generation is 3.5 to 5.0 percent, and for nuclear weapons is 90 percent or more. 27) This resolution puts in place measures to prevent the supply, sale or transfer to Iran of materials and technology that could contribute to Iran s enrichment, reprocessing, or heavy water-related activities. 28) In addition to the above measures, this resolution bans weapons shipments by Iran and monitors/restricts the supply, sale or transfer of tanks, fighter aircraft, missiles, and other such armaments to Iran. 29) A region centered on the triangle linking the capital of Baghdad with Ramadi in the west and Tikrit (Saddam Hussein s birthplace) in the north, within which there are many Sunni residents and many people who support the former Hussein regime 30) U.S. National Intelligence Council, Prospects for Stability in Iraq (January 2007) 31) At an interview on January 29, 2007, Vice President Cheney stated that the deployment of an additional carrier group sent a signal to deal with the Iranian threat. Secretary of State Rice, at an interview on January 12, 2007, made remarks to the effect that the United States was assisting friendly countries to improve their defensive capability with air defense to counter Iran. 23