HKSE Code : Market Price : HK$ (07/08/2013) Shares Issued : 1,912m
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1 9/F, 10 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong. Dealing: Research: Facsimile: HONG KONG RESEARCH Analyst: Paul Sham 7 th August HANG SENG BANK LIMITED ( 恒生銀行 ) Sector : Banking HKSE Code : Chairman Market Price : HK$ (07/08/2013) Shares Issued : 1,912m Vice-Chairman & Mkt. Cap. : HK$230,396m Chief Executive 52 weeks Hi/ Lo : HK$ / HK$ HSI : 21, (07/08/2013) Chief Financial Officer : Main Business : Banking and related financial services : Dr. Raymond K. F. Ch ien : Ms. Rose W M Lee Mr. Andrew Leung Wing Lok SUMMARY OF THE INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 TH JUNE 2013 Interim Results Highlights Vs 1H2012 (%) Vs 31/12/2013 (%) Net interest income 8, % Non-interest income 4, % Total operating income 13, % Operating expenses (4,345) +5.1% Operating profit before impairment losses 9, % Impairment losses on loans and other provisions (198) -20.5% Profit before taxation 18, % Taxation (1,357) +0.7% Attributable profit to shareholders 18, % Total loans 581, % +8.1% Total deposits 832, % +1.6% Total assets 1,106, % +2.7% Basic EPS (HK$) % 1st & 2nd interim DPS (HK$) % Selected Ratios 1H2013 1H2012 FY2012 Net interest margin 1.84% 1.85% 1.85% Cost-income ratio 32.2% 33.0% 34.4% Return on average assets 3.4% 1.9% 1.9% Return on average equity 35.9% 22.9% 22.9% Impaired loan ratio 0.22% 0.33% 0.25% Impaired advances coverage 106.7% 99.4% 105.1% Loan-deposit ratio 69.8% 65.6% 65.7% Core Capital ratio 13.6% 11.7% 12.2% Capital adequacy ratio 15.8% 13.9% 14.0% Average liquidity ratio 35.8% 36.9% 36.9% 1H13 results exceeded market expectations Hang Seng Bank (HSB) reported net profit of HK$18,468m, up 99.6% y-o-y, which was ahead of consensus estimates of HK$15,289m. The betterthan-expected results were attributable to the Industrial Bank (IB) reclassification (HK$8,454m) and property revaluation (HK$999m). Excluding these one-offs, HSB s core net profit rose only 14% y-o-y, largely driven by higher than expected h-o-h loan growth and lower credit cost. Despite higher earnings, HSB maintained its dividend payout at HK$2.20 for 1H13, the same as last year, so as to preserve capital. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and we, East Asia Securities Company Limited are not soliciting any action based upon it. Neither this document nor its contents shall be construed as an offer, invitation, advertisement, inducement or representation of any kind or form whatsoever. This document is based upon information, which we consider reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. At the time of preparing this report, we have no position in securities of the company or companies mentioned herein, while other Bank of East Asia Group companies may from time to time have interests in securities of the company or companies mentioned herein.
2 EAST ASIA SECURITIES COMPANY LIMITED Net interest income HSB s net interest income rose by 8.2% y-o-y to HK$8,969m, driven by the 11.7% rise in average customer advances and the 9.0% rise in average customer deposits. Net interest margin narrowed by one basis point to 1.84% as the compression of spreads in China outweighed the widening of loan spreads in Hong Kong. On h-o-h basis, net interest income also registered an increase compared with 2H12 on higher average interest-earning assets. The net interest margin compared with the second half of last year was unchanged at 1.84%. Non-interest income Net fee income increased by 21.9% y-o-y to HK$2,936m. Income from investment funds sales rebounded strongly by 70.7% y-o-y, reflecting increased retail investor activity early this year. Stockbroking income also rose 15.3% y-o-y, benefiting from higher stock market turnover. Trading income was relatively flattish, up 2.9% y-o-y to HK$1,204m as increased revenue from foreign exchange-linked structured products was largely offset by the fall in funding swap activities. Other non-interest income jumped 39.7% y-o-y to RMB1,095m, driven by a gain on a property held by the insurance business. Cost efficiency Operating expenses came up by 5.1% y-o-y to HK$4,345m on continued Mainland expansion. Employee compensation and benefits increased by 3.4% y-o-y, reflecting annual salary increment and increased staff number. HSB added 186 full-time equivalent staff in the past one year to a headcount of 9,834 as of 30 th June The cost efficiency ratio for 1H13 improved 0.8 percentage points to 32.2%, among the lowest in the Hong Kong banking sector. Credit quality Loan impairment charges fell 20.5% y-o-y to HK$198m. Individually assessed impairment charges recorded a net release of HK$3m compared with a net charge of HK$128m in 1H12 due to lower impairment charges on corporate and commercial banking customers. In contrast, collectively assessed charges increased by HK$80m, due to the increase in impairment charges for credit card and personal loan portfolios. Credit quality of HSB remained benign, with its impaired loan ratio further improving to 0.22% as of 30 th June 2013, from 0.25% at end Mainland operations The pre-tax profit of the Mainland China business jumped HK$6,168m to HK$8,633m, aided by the reclassification of IB from an associate to a financial investment. In respect of Hang Seng (China), total operating income was 15.3% lower than that in 1H12, affected by a 21.6% decrease in net interest income. The decline in income was attributable to keen competition for deposits and volatility in the interbank market, which put pressure on HSB s interest margins. Operating profit also fell by 35.2% y-o-y to only HK$129m in1h13. Capital positions As of 30 th June 2013, both core tier 1 CAR and total CAR recorded h-o-h improvement to 13.6% and 15.8% respectively. Nevertheless, as HSB s holdings in IB are subject to certain reductions in its core capital, its common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio would have been 10.3% under fully-loaded Basel III requirement at 30 th June Outlook & Prospects Lack of earning growth momentum Owing to the reclassification gain of IB and property revaluation gain, the bottom line of HSB was significantly inflated. Excluding those one-offs, HSB s core earnings should grow by a low double-digit rate only. On the other hand, the 1H13 results confirmed that Hang Seng China (excluding IB) was still far away from contributing material earnings to HSB. Unless the US Fed raises interest rate earlier than expected (i.e. before 2015), it is unlikely to see any earning breakthrough for Hang Seng Bank in the near term. Dividend likely to remains flat Management disclosed that the fully-loaded Basel III CET1 ratio was 10.3% at end-june 2013 (compared with the reported level of 13.6%), due to increased deductions in relation to the remaining IB stake. Since the CEO described IB as a mutually rewarding partner at the analyst briefing, HSB is unlikely to dispose its IB stake, and IB should still be treated as a long-term drag on capital amid gradual Basel III implementation. We accordingly see limited upside for HSB s dividend payout. Strong deposit franchise During 1H13, deposit growth was weak, up only 1.6% h-o-h, lagging behind the 8.1% h-o-h loan growth. Management highlighted such tighter liquidity condition in HK, particularly in May & June, led to increased funding costs. Nevertheless, HSB s deposits in current and savings accounts accounted for 67.3% of the total in 1H13, (compared to 67.7% in 1H12 and 69.9% in 2H12), which were considered high weighting among peers. The competitive advantage in terms of deposit franchise benefits HSB relative to smaller banks if liquidity tightens further. 2
3 EAST ASIA SECURITIES COMPANY LIMITED Valuation Following the reclassification of IB and the confirmation of Basel III impact (10.3% Basel III tier 1), there should be no meaningful negative catalyst in the near term. However, at the same time, no positive catalyst can be found in HSB. Trading at 2.2x FY13E P/B, HSB s valuation remains on the high side. We therefore recommend an Underweight rating on the counter. Recommendation: Underweight 3
4 Appendix I I. Impairment allowances, overdue and rescheduled advances of Hang Seng Bank As % of total customer advances Individual allowance Portfolio Non-performing allowance loans Overdue and rescheduled advances As of 30/6/ % 0.12% 0.22% 0.18% As of 31/12/ % 0.14% 0.25% 0.21% As of 30/6/ % 0.14% 0.33% 0.26% II. Comparison of Hang Seng Bank s loan book: 30/06/2013 vs 31/12/2012 Loans-by industry 30 th June, 2013 Up/(down) 31 st Dec, 2012 Property related 128, % 133,446 Financial concerns 4, % 3,595 Wholesale & retail trade 19, % 16,445 Manufacturing 17, % 15,212 Transport & transport equipment 6, % 5,774 Residential mortgages, HOS/PSPS 143, % 139,062 Credit card 20, % 20,389 Others 49, % 41,954 Trade finance 62, % 47,555 Stockbrokers % 325 Loans outside HK 129, % 113, , % 537,571 III. Comparison of Hang Seng Bank s loan book: 30/06/2013 vs 30/06/2012 Loans-by industry 30 th June, 2013 Up/(down) 30 th June, 2012 Property related 128, % 131,105 Financial concerns 4, % 3,944 Wholesale & retail trade 19, % 15,952 Manufacturing 17, % 13,792 Transport & transport equipment 6, % 6,082 Residential mortgages, HOS/PSPS 143, % 129,693 Credit card 20, % 18,392 Others 49, % 38,829 Trade finance 62, % 42,917 Stockbrokers % 227 Loans outside HK 129, % 105, , % 506,583 4
5 Appendix II Breakdown of loan book of Hang Seng Bank Breakdown of Loan Book as of 30/6/2013 Total customer advances: HK$581,080 million Loans outside HK 22.2% Property related 22.1% Financial concerns 0.8% Trade finance 10.8% Whoelsale & retail trade 3.4% Others 8.5% Credit card 3.5% Residential mortgages, HOS/PSPS/TPS 24.7% Transport and transport equipment 1.0% Manufacturing 3.0% Breakdown of Loan Book as of 31/12/2012 Total customer advances: HK$537,571 million Loans outside HK 21.2% Property related 24.8% Financial concerns 0.7% Trade finance 8.8% Whoelsale & retail trade 3.1% Others 7.8% Credit card 3.8% Residential mortgages, HOS/PSPS/TPS 25.9% Transport and transport equipment 1.1% Manufacturing 2.8% 5
6 Important Disclosure / Analyst Certification / Disclaimer This document is published by East Asia Securities Company Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Bank of East Asia, Limited (BEA). The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report, in part or in whole certifies that the views on the companies and their securities mentioned in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and has no intention whatsoever to solicit any action based upon it. Neither this report nor its contents shall be construed as an offer, invitation, advertisement, inducement or representation of any kind or form whatsoever. The information is based upon information, which East Asia Securities Company Limited considers reliable, but accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Information and opinions expressed herein reflect a judgment as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This report is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by respective readers of this report, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. East Asia Securities Company Limited and / or The BEA Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or further communication given in relation to this report. At time of this report, East Asia Securities Company Limited has no position in securities of the company or companies mentioned herein the report, while BEA along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report. BEA and its associates, its directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. BEA and/or any of its affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company or companies mentioned in this report and may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services from the subject company or companies mentioned in the report. This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or located in, any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law and regulation. 6
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