Modelling the mid-term development of the energy system with the use of technology explicit partial equilibrium model

Transcription

1 1 Modelling the mid-term development of the energy system with the use of technology explicit partial equilibrium model Artur Wyrwa 1,2, Marcin Pluta 1,2, Janusz Zyśk 1,2, Szymon Skoneczny 2,Tomasz Mirowski 1,2 1 AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow, Poland 2 Academic Computer Centre CYFRONET AGH, ul. Nawojki 11, Krakow, Poland. Cracow,

2 ESA - Platform for an Integrated Energy System Analysis Dedicated to modelling of the mid-term development of the energy system Based on the Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) framework Can be used to support the decision making process Energy Model Pressures Dispersion State Impacts Emission TIMES-PL Inventory Polyphemus Concentrations Damage Functions Pollutans PMs(10,2.5) SO 2 Data Meteo Other pollutans Europe ECMWF EMEP Resolution Spatial (conc&pop) Vertical 50x50 km 11 level Impact indicators: Health NOx GHGs Natural emission EMEP Temporal Annual (10 min)

3 Depicting reality inside an energy system model Reality Model structure n k c x n j 1 j 1 j j a x b i 12,,...,m ij j i x 0 j 1, 2,...,n j Mathematical description Cross-checking results with reality Feedback Model results Optimiser CPLEX Parallel barrier optimizer Data

4 TIMES energy model generator Linear programming, bottom-up, technology-rich Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units Price-elasticities for end-use demands Partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect competition) Environmental, economical, technical, political constraints Optimal technology selection in the time horizon considered (20-50 yrs) Objective-function: Maximizes net social surplus Source: TIMES-VEDA turtorial

5 Benefits of using PLGrid PLUS infrastructure R1MO1 1R1MO8 1R2TU7 1R3WE6 1R4TH5 1R5FR4 1R6SA3 1R7SU2 2S1MO1 2S1MO8 2S2TU7 2S3WE6 2S4TH5 2S5FR4 2S6SA3 2S7SU2 3F1MO1 3F1MO8 3F2TU7 3F3WE6 3F4TH5 3F5FR4 3F6SA3 3F7SU2 4W1MO1 4W1MO8 4W2TU7 4W3WE6 4W4TH5 4W5FR4 4W6SA3 4W7SU R1MO1 1R1MO8 1R2TU7 1R3WE6 1R4TH5 1R5FR4 1R6SA3 1R7SU2 2S1MO1 2S1MO8 2S2TU7 2S3WE6 2S4TH5 2S5FR4 2S6SA3 2S7SU2 3F1MO1 3F1MO8 3F2TU7 3F3WE6 3F4TH5 3F5FR4 3F6SA3 3F7SU2 4W1MO1 4W1MO8 4W2TU7 4W3WE6 4W4TH5 4W5FR4 4W6SA3 4W7SU2 Heat Demand Electricty Demand Supply Side Demand Side

6 Benefits of using PLGrid PLUS infrastructure

7 Net electricity generation [TWh] Driver Pressure State Impact Response Model coupling Other Solar Wind Offshore Wind Onshore Biogas Biomass Long-term energy modelling Temporal profiles of emission release based on activity [eq/ha] Changes in ambient concentration: SO 2 [ug/m 3 ] Environmental and health impacts

8 Energy modelling wiht ESA -functionalities ESA Functionality I - users experienced in energy system modelling who use the VEDA data handling system: ESA offers access to the supercomputers of CYFRONET AGH Functionality II -users without knowledge of VEDA: ESA offers an in-built RES, which can be used to model the development of the Polish energy system Both user groups operate ESA through a web interface -technologies used in the application: JSP, Java, AJAX, Java Script

9 ACCESS to ESA Encrypted connection User is redirected after using alias piesa.plgrid.pl Credentials on zeus.cyfronet.pl (The server tries to establish SSH connection) If credentials are correct, then the user is redirected to the requested page. For example Model management.

10 Page structure Information about selected model Main menu Logout Description of a page The user may select a model by choosing Load own model. It is necessary when for the first functionallity.

11 List of models is created based on files existing in user folder on zeus.cyfronet.pl When model is selected, then user may change values of model parameters The table is used to edit parameters The button executes Java code, and files with parameter are modified. Only part of the page is refreshed by using of AJAX.

12 Uploading a model

13 Running the simulation User runs the simulation by page Simulation settings -> Run simulation. Then the following command is launched on zeus.cyfronet.pl Name of result file. This name is required by GAMS qsub vqgams CYFRONET.RUN RESULTS Script with defined parameters of job (user s certificate, number of cores) Previously selected model name

14 Summary The performed studies demonstrate that the ESA service can be used for modelling the development of energy systems. It enables the users to efficiently solve the complex energy models developed in TIMES with the use of the CYFRONET AGH supercomputers. Future work will be dedicated to development of the structure of the in-built model of the reference energy system and further integration of the ESA components.

15 DZIĘKUJĘ ZA UWAGĘ "Przedstawione prace są realizowane w ramach projektu PLGrid Plus, który jest współfinansowany ze środków Europejskiego Funduszu Rozwoju Regionalnego w ramach Programu Operacyjnego Innowacyjna Gospodarka." Dr inż. Artur Wyrwa tel awyrwa@agh.edu.pl