SKAGEN Tellus Status Report December 2016

Transcription

1 SKAGEN Tellus Status Report December 2016

2 Key numbers as of 30 December 2016 EUR, net of fees December Q years 3 years 5 years Since inception* SKAGEN Tellus 0,1% 1,8% 5,7% 5,7% 6,2% 5,2% 5,4% JPM Broad GBI Unhedged ** -0,1% -2,4% 4,4% 4,4% 9,0% 3,3% 5,0% Excess return 0,2% 4,1% 1,3% 1,3% -2,8% 1,9% 0,4% *Inception date: 29/09/2006 **Benchmark index before 01/01/2013 was Barclay's Capital Global Treasury Index 3-5 years Unless otherwise stated, all performance data in this report relates to class A units, measured in EUR and is net of fees. 2

3 After the storm comes calm After a steep rise in long-term interests rates following Trump s victory in November, interest rate markets calmed down in December. As expected, the Federal Reserve increased the policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting in December. The market viewed the Fed as more hawkish than expected, as the central bank signalled 3 rate hikes in In general the key macro numbers were strong in December, which points to a good start for the global economy in This supports our view of stable or somewhat higher long-term rates in the US and central Europe. The duration of Tellus is currently 3.7 years, which is substantially lower than the index duration of 7.6 years. At the current stage of the business cycle, we only take interest rate risk where we see there is still is a solid case for a fall in the interest rate going forward or the yield is very attractive. We have longer duration in selected countries where we expect the credit premium to fall (such as Greece, Portugal and Croatia), or where there is a high interest rate (Peru and Chile). We have very low duration in advanced economies such as the US, UK and Norway. In the latter, the investment is based on an expectation of an appreciation of the currency. Our investments in Chile, Spain, the US and Croatia contributed most positively to the return in December. Greece, on the other hand, was a laggard. The interest rate on our Greek bond increased by 50 basis points after the Greek government decided to give pensioners a Christmas bonus. This was not approved by the creditors, and hence led to uncertainty about the future of the debt relief measures. By the end of the month the creditors agreed to go forward with the measures after Greece confirmed its continued commitment to the terms of the agreement. Rates in Greece then fell. 3

4 Accumulated returns since inception in EUR 70% 60% 64% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 39% 15% 10% -10% -20% Fund total Currency Bond price changes Coupons 4

5 Accumulated returns year to date in EUR 7,0 % 6,0 % 6,31% 5,0 % 4,0 % 3,0 % 2,0 % 1,0 % 3,05% 1,87% 1,39% 0,0 % -1,0 % -2,0 % Fund total Currency Bond price changes Coupons 5

6 Top 5 best and worst contributors ,00% 0,80% 0,60% 0,40% 0,20% 0,00% -0,20% -0,40% Peru USA Chile Croatia Greece Mexico Portugal Germany Absolute return 0,86% 0,84% 0,81% 0,80% 0,77% -0,32% -0,29% 0,00% 0,02% 0,06% Great Britain France Contributing factors are interest coupons, bond price changes and currency fluctuations 6

7 Portfolio as of 30 December 2016 Holding Name Currency Holding Percent Maturity Date Coupon US Government USD US Government USD Norwegian Government NOK Croatia Government International Bond EUR Peruvian Government PEN Portugese Government EUR Chilean Government CLP Hellenic Republic Government EUR New Zealand Government NZD Spanish Government EUR UK Government GBP UK Government GBP Mexican Government MXN Canadian Government CAD Slovenia Government EUR Dominican Republic DOP European Bank Recon & Dev INR Lithuanian Government USD

8 Interest rate risk exposure LITHUANIA 0,08 DOMINICAN REPB. 0,13 EBRD* 0,02 MEXICO 0,02 NORWAY 0,03 BRITAIN 0,04 CANADA 0,06 UNITED STATES 0,06 PERU 0,65 GREECE 0,63 PORTUGAL 0,44 CHILE 0,18 NEW ZEALAND 0,28 SPAIN 0,42 SLOVENIA 0,33 CROATIA 0,38 EBRD* : European Bank of Reconstruction & Development 8

9 Interest rate exposure relative to benchmark 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 SKAGEN Tellus Benchmark - PERU GREECE PORTUGAL SPAIN CROATIA SLOVENIA NEW ZEALAND CHILE DOMINICAN REPB. LITHUANIA UNITED STATES CANADA BRITAIN NORWAY MEXICO EBRD* GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE NETHERLANDS POLAND ITALY DENMARK IRELAND CZECH AUSTRALIA AUSTRIA HONG KONG HUNGARY ISRAEL BELGIUM FINLAND SWEDEN SOUTH KOREA SINGAPORE SOUTH AFRICA 9

10 sep. 06 feb. 07 jul. 07 des. 07 mai. 08 okt. 08 mar. 09 aug. 09 jan. 10 jun. 10 nov. 10 apr. 11 sep. 11 feb. 12 jul. 12 des. 12 mai. 13 okt. 13 mar. 14 aug. 14 jan. 15 jun. 15 nov. 15 apr. 16 sep. 16 Interest duration since the fund s inception 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Duration Average duration = ,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 10

11 Currency exposure DOP 2,8 % INR 2,5 % EUR 28,8 % MXN 4,8 % NZD 5,3 % CLP 5,8 % CAD 6,2 % USD 19,1 % PEN 6,3 % NOK 8,0 % GBP 10,2 % 11

12 Currency exposure relative to benchmark 45% 40% 35% SKAGEN Tellus Benchmark 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% EUR USD GBP NOK PEN CAD CLP NZD MXN DOP INR DKK SEK TRY JPY BRL CNY AUD RUB PLN ZAR CZK HKD HUF ILS KRW CHN SGD CNH PHP 12

13 Moody s rating on Tellus portfolio relative to benchmark 60 % 50 % SKAGEN Tellus Benchmark 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B2 B3 Caa1 Caa2 Caa3 13

14 For more information please see: SKAGEN Tellus A on our web pages SKAGEN s Market report Unless otherwise stated, all performance data in this report relates to class A units and is net of fees. Historical returns are no guarantee for future returns. Future returns will depend, inter alia, on market developments, the fund manager s skill, the fund s risk profile and subscription and management fees. The return may become negative as a result of negative price developments. SKAGEN seeks to the best of its ability to ensure that all information given in this report is correct, however, makes reservations regarding possible errors and omissions. statements in the report reflect the portfolio managers viewpoint at a given time, and this viewpoint may be changed without notice. The report should not be perceived as an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. SKAGEN does not assume responsibility for direct or indirect loss or expenses incurred through use or understanding of the report. Employees of SKAGEN AS may be owners of securities issued by companies or governments that are either referred to in this report or are part of the fund's portfolio.