DIRF-dagen Hvad er værdien ved analysedækning? Carnegie Investment Bank AB

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1 Hvad er værdien ved analysedækning? Carnegie Investment Bank AB

2 Førende nordisk investeringsbank Claus Almer Analytiker siden 1999 Analysedækning: Vestas, William Demant, GN, NKT, SimCorp, Matas, Auriga og Schouw Carnegie: 100% dedikation til nordiske aktier Carnegie har en førende position inden for research, aktiehandel, investment banking og private banking Analysedækning: 85% af det nordiske marked Carnegie er en uafhængig investeringsbank med nordisk fokus Kontorer i otte lande 630 ansatte. Heraf er 45 analytikere (7 i Danmark) fordelt på 11 sektorer og 4 på makro Carnegie har i de seneste år succesfuldt deltaget i flertallet af de danske børsnotereringer New York Oslo Helsinki Gothenburg Stockholm Copenhagen Malmö London Luxembourg Geneva Investment Banking and Securities Leading investment banking adviser for companies based in the Nordics Equity broking, research and trading of Nordic stocks Private Banking and Structured Finance Wealth management services to high net worth individuals in the Nordic region Structured financial products tailor-made for individual investors Asset Management Management and sale of fund units. Stable fund management organisation with substantial experience Carnegie Investment Bank AB 16 September,

3 Danske M&A transaktioner siden august 2011 Acquisition of onshore wind portfolio from DONG Energy (DK) by SE and PFA (DK) DKK 760 million Adviser to the Buyers Pending Sale of EG (DK) to Axcel (DK) for Nordic Capital (SE) August 2013 IPO of Matas (DK) by CVC Capital Partners (DK) DKK 4.7 billion Co-Lead Manager June 2013 Sale of Cimbria (DK) to Silverfleet (UK) for Axcel (DK) DKK 1.0 billion April 2013 Divestment of Exhausto (DK) to Axcel (DK) for VKR Holding (DK) April 2013 Divestment of Drexel und Weiss (AT) to Gebrüder Gasser Holding (CH) for VKR Holding(DK) April 2013 Carnegie Danmark har siden august 2011 været rådgiver i: 15 sell side transaktioner 4 buy side transaktioner 9 ECM transaktioner 1 fusion Værdi mere end DKK40bn Sale of BTX Group (DK) to an affiliate of Sun European Partners (UK) for EQT (DK) March 2013 Sale of Stofa (DK) to SE (DK) for Ratos (SE) DKK 1.9 billion February 2013 TDC (DK) DKK 4.7 billion Selling agent February 2013 Sale of Skamol (DK) to FSN Capital (NO) for Polaris (DK) January 2013 Public bid for Jeudan (DK) by William Demant Invest (DK) DKK 4.7 billion Settlement Agent January 2013 Sale of Contex (DK) to Procuritas (SE) for Ratos (SE) USD 41.5 million January 2013 TDC (DK) DKK 3.0 billion Selling agent November 2012 Merger of Spar Nord Bank (DK) and Sparbank (DK) DKK 3.4 billion Adviser to Spar Nord Bank November 2012 Acquisition of Vialtis (FR) from Viatrans (CH) by FDE (DK) Adviser to the Buyer August 2012 Public tender offer for Thrane & Thrane (DK) by Cobham (UK) DKK 2.6 billion Adviser to the Target June 2012 Acquisition of German offshore wind farm (DE) from Dong Energy (DK) by KIRKBI and William Demant Invest (DK) DKK 4.7 billion Adviser to KIRKBI and William Demant Invest May 2012 Divestment of certain divisions to DK Company (DK) by BTX Group and EQT (DK) DKK 230 million s April 2012 Divestment of the Carlsberg site (DK) to Realdania, PFA, Topdanmark, PenSam (DK) by Carlsberg DKK 2.5 billion April 2012 Rights issue in Spar Nord Bank (DK) DKK 913 million Joint global co-ordinator and book-runner March 2012 Placing of Spar Nord (DK) DKK 235 million Joint book-runner March 2012 William Demant (DK) DKK 1.3 billion Sole broker March 2012 TDC (DK) DKK 5.6 billion Selling agent February 2012 Sale of DONG Energy Oil Terminals (DK) to Interpipeline (CA) for DONG Energy DKK 2.6 billion January 2012 Divestment of JKF Industri (DK) to Maj Invest Equtiy (DK) by EQT January 2012 Divestment of House of Coffee in Denmark and Norway to Sara Lee Corporation and Kaffehuset Friele by ISS (DK) December 2011 Chr. Hansen (DK) DKK 1.7 billion Co-lead manager November 2011 Voluntary public offer for Satair (DK) by Airbus (FR) DKK 2.5 billion Fairness opinion to the Board of Directors of Satair September 2011 Sale of Cimbria (DK) to Axcel (DK) for EQT August 2011 Carnegie Investment Bank AB 16 September,

4 Pres på indtjeningen Øget pres på indtjeningen Børsmæglere har oplevet et øget pres på indtjeningen i takt med den faldende handelsaktivitet og at investorer i stigende grad søger mod billigere alternativer end de traditionelle handelsplatforme Kurtage-puljen faldet med ~70% siden 2007 De mest handlede aktier på OMXc udgør kun ~3% af den samlede handel Stort fokus på hvordan analytikere anvender sin tid, hvilket kan gøre det vanskeligt at forsvare analysedækning af et small/midcap selskab Konsekvensen har været fyringsrunder, som især har ramt analysedækningen af de mindre selskaber DIRF-dagen 2013 Københavns Fondsbørs: Handelsaktivitet (value) Top % Top % Top 20, ex Novo 67% Novo Nordisk 24% Top % Source: Carnegie Research Carnegie Investment Bank AB 16 September,

5 Hvor bringer aktieanalyse værdi? Udarbejdelse af research kan ikke stå alene: Kvaliteten af distribution af research analyser er vitalt, nationalt som internationalt Roadshows Selv investorer med intern analyseafdeling har behov for ekstern research/dialog/sparring DIRF-dagen 2013 Capital Market services Interaktion med aktiemarkedet Mange bestyrelser efterspørger i stigende grad informationer om aktiemarkedet Capital Market Services Carnegie har derfor introduceret et Capital Market service produkt, hvor grundtanken er at løse to behov: Ledelsen får et bedre redskab til dialogen med bestyrelsen Carnegie får skabt et fundament til at analysere flere selskaber Carnegie er klar til at ansætte og analysere flere selskaber, men det kræver at det økonomisk kan forsvares Vores Capital Market service produkt er for alle typer af virksomheder, og vi kommer gerne ud og præsenterer produktet Analysedækning er med til at skabe mere opmærksomhed i aktiemarkedet. men også i pressen Carnegie Investment Bank AB 16 September,

6 Stigende aktiekurs og markant øget likviditet Schouw har været en succeshistorie drevet af: Øget IR fokus Øget analysedækning Mere klar Equity story De identificeret kurs-triggere er også blevet leveret Schouw & Co: Trading volumen, DKKt 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Carnegie optog analysedækning med Buy og target DKK165/aktie 0 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul Schouw & Co er et traditionelt industri konglomerat baseret på aktiv ejerskab og Best owner philosophy. Porteføljen består i dag af 7 selskaber, hvor BioMar (verdens 3. største fiskefoder producent) er markant størst MCAP: DKK4.8bn Trading/day (value, 3m rolling) Share price (Akse til højre) Source: Carnegie Research Carnegie Investment Bank AB 16 September,

7 Schouw: Trend med faldende multipler blev brudt Schouw: Forward P/E 25.0x 23.0x 21.0x 19.0x 17.0x 15.0x 13.0x 11.0x 9.0x 7.0x Share price (right axis) 5.0x Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan Schouw s kursfald og lavere multipler var drevet af flere komponenter, herunder Schouw s ejerandel i Vestas P/E (12m rolling) er løftet fra ~6x til ~10x Source: Carnegie Research, FactSet Schouw: EV/EBIT 19.0x 17.0x 15.0x 13.0x 11.0x 9.0x 7.0x Share price (right axis) x Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 0 Source: Carnegie Research, FactSet Carnegie Investment Bank AB 16 September,

8 Disclosures and disclaimers Carnegie Investment Bank AB Carnegie Investment Bank AB (publ) is a leading independent investment bank with a Nordic focus. Carnegie generates added value for institutions, companies and private clients in the areas of trade in securities, investment banking, private banking and asset management. The company has approximately 900 employees, located at offices in eight countries. Ratings and risk assessment structure Current rating system as of October 2011 Buy (B): an upside of at least 10% to target price and with an attractive risk/reward profile. Hold (H): the shares are trading close to their target price and are fairly valued. Sell (S): unattractive risk/reward ratio as the shares are trading above their target price. Not rated (NR), Under review (UR), Under bid (UB): the investment rating, if any, has been suspended temporarily. Sector View Carnegie s coverage universe on a Nordic sector basis is rated relative to the total Nordic market. Carnegie s strategists, in co-operation with the sector heads, set the sector recommendations. Positive, the sector is expected to outperform the return on the total Nordic market over the next 6 months. Neutral, the sector is expected to perform in line with the return on the total Nordic market over the next 6 months. Negative, the sector is expected to underperform the return on the total Nordic market over the next 6 months. Risk assessment The risk assessment is based on the analyst s evaluation of the company s equity beta based on the business risk (asset beta) and financial risk (gearing). Low risk Estimated equity beta <0.75 Medium risk Estimated equity beta 0.75 to 1.25 High risk Estimated equity beta >1.25 Target price Analyst valuation methods Carnegie publish a target price on a majority of the stocks in our Research Universe. The target price is the analyst's assessment of expected total return over the coming six to 12 months based on various fundamental valuation methods. A commonly used method is DCF-valuation where future cash flows are discounted to today. Analysts may also use different valuation multiples, e.g. P/E ratio and EV/EBIT multiples, relative to industry peers to obtain target price. For companies where it is appropriate a target price could also be based on the analyst s assessment of a fair ratio in relation to the net asset value of the company. Key risks Target prices are changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. Thus, changes to estimates is a key risk to target price. Other reasons for changing target price include changes in the underlying value of a company s assets and when factors impacting the required rate of return change, which also could be seen as risk factors to the target price. Analyst certification The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this report certify that, notwithstanding the existence of any potential conflicts of interests referred to herein, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal views about the companies and securities covered. It is further certified that the research analyst has not been, nor is or will be, receiving direct or indirect compensation related to the specific ratings or views contained in this report. Potential conflict of interest Carnegie, or its subsidiaries, may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. Any such publicly announced business activity, during the past 12 months, will be referred to in this report. A set of rules handling conflicts of interest is implemented within the Carnegie Group. Investment Banking ( IB ) and other business departments within Carnegie are surrounded by arrangements to restrict the flows of sensitive information ( Chinese walls ). Persons outside a Chinese wall may only gain access to sensitive information after having observed applicable Chinese wall crossing procedures. The remuneration of persons involved in preparing this report is not tied to investment banking transactions performed by Carnegie or a legal person within the same group. Confidential and non-public information regarding Carnegie and its clients, business activities and other circumstances that could affect the market value of a security ( sensitive information ) is kept strictly confidential and may never be used in an undue manner. Internal guidelines are implemented in order to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts. In accordance with the guidelines the research department is separated from the Investment Banking department and there are no reporting lines between the research department and Investment Banking. The guidelines also include rules regarding, but not limited to, the following issues; contacts with covered companies, prohibition against offering favourable recommendations, personal involvement in covered companies, participation in investment banking activities, supervision and review of research reports, analyst reporting lines and analyst remuneration. Research Disclaimer The information in this report was obtained from various sources. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is true and not misleading, Carnegie does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. If the report has been disclosed to the issuer and amended following this disclosure before its dissemination, it will be referred to in Company specific disclosures. Carnegie, its subsidiaries and any of their officers or directors may have a position, or otherwise be interested in, transactions in securities which are directly or indirectly the subject of this report. Any significant financial interests held by the analyst, Carnegie or a legal person within the same group in relation to the issuer will be referred to in the Company specific disclosures. This research report is prepared for general circulation and general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Carnegie and its subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any lost of profits, arising from the use of this report or its contents. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. Carnegie Investment Bank AB is a company incorporated in Sweden with limited liability regulated by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. This report is distributed in Sweden by Carnegie Investment Bank AB. Carnegie UK is the UK Branch of Carnegie Investment Bank AB. Carnegie UK is regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK. This report has been approved for the purposes of Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by Carnegie UK and issued by it in the UK. In Finland this report is issued by Carnegie Investment Bank AB, Finland Branch. The Finland Branch is regulated by the Finnish Financial Supervision Authority. In Norway this report is issued by Carnegie ASA, a wholly owned subsidiary of Carnegie Investment Bank AB. Carnegie ASA is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway. In Denmark this report is issued by Carnegie Bank AS, a wholly owned subsidiary of Carnegie Investment Bank AB. Carnegie Bank AS is regulated by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. This report is distributed in the US by Carnegie, Inc., a US registered broker-dealer. This report is provided for informational purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. Any U.S. person that wishes to effect transactions based upon this report should contact Carnegie Inc. Investors in the US should be aware that investing in non-us securities entails certain risks. The securities of non-us issuers may not be registered with, nor be subject to, the current informational reporting and audit standards of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Company specific disclosures The following disclosures relate to relationships between Carnegie Investment Bank AB (with its subsidiaries, Carnegie ) and the subject company. Carnegie Investment Bank AB 16 September,