Cautionary Information

Transcription

1 February 11, 2016 BB&T Capital Markets 31 st Annual Transportation Services Conference Rob Knight CFO 1 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Company s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Company s expectations with respect to economic conditions and demand levels; and its ability to generate financial returns, improve network performance and cost efficiency, and provide returns to its shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of Forward-looking statements also generally include, without t limitation, it ti information or statements t t regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, ti estimates or forecasts as to the Company s and its subsidiaries business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Company s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Company s and its subsidiaries future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Company s Annual Report on Form 10-K for, which was filed with the SEC on February 5, The Company updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Company does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Company will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein. 2

2 The Strength of a Unique Franchise Excellent Network Strategic Terminal Locations Broad Port Access Border and Interchange Coverage Business Mix Freight Revenue:$20.4B Automotive Distribution Centers Intermodal Terminals Manifest Terminals Ports Border Crossings, Gateways and Interchanges Intermodal 20% Industrial Products 19% Coal 16% Agricultural Products 17% Automotive 11% Chemicals 17% 3 Full Year Results Earnings Per Share $4.71-5% $5.75 $ % Operating Ratio -0.4 pts 63.5% 63.1% Best-Ever Year Softness in Demand Business Mix Shifts Solid Core Pricing Resource Agility Lower Fuel Prices

3 2016 Volumes Day Monthly Carloadings 2016 YTD Down 9%* (000s) YTD Volumes* (vs ) Automotive Chemicals Intermodal 150 January December TOTAL Int l: Flat Dom: -2% Agricultural Products Industrial Products -15% Coal -34% -8% -9% -1% Flat +16% *Through February 4, Resources & Network Performance Total TE&Y* 17,975-18% 14,808 Active Locomotive Fleet 7,896-13% 6,895 ~4,100 TE&Y Employees in Furlough / AWTS** 4Q14 4Q15 4Q14 4Q15 ~1,500 Locomotives in Storage** *Full-time equivalent **As of February 5, 2016 Good UP Velocity (As reported to AAR, in mph) Q14 +13% Q15 UP Terminal Dwell (As reported to AAR, in hours) Q14-5% Q15 Good Record Velocity at 4Q Volume Levels Focus on Further Improving Service & Costs 6

4 Coal Trends 50,000 10,000 Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings) Natural Gas Prices , * 1Q PRB Flooding 2Q 3Q 4Q Jan 2013 Powder River Basin Coal Stockpiles* (Days of Burn) Inventory 5-Year Average Jul 2013 Jan 2014 *Energy Ventures Analysis Apr 12: Coal Inventory Levels 32% Exports 17% 19% 20% Jul 2014 Jan Jul Dec Electricity Generation Market Share** % from coal % from natural gas 50% 48% 47% 40% 25% 33% 32% EIA Est. 39 *Through February 6, **U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Dec 7 Shale-Related Volumes 3.2% of Total Volume Volume (000s) % Incr (vs 2014) % of Total UP Volume Frac Sand* % 2.0% Crude Oil 90-37% 1.0% Pipe 19-43% 0.2% Total Shale % 3.2% Frac Sand Drivers Lower Energy Prices / Lower Rig Counts Enhanced Fracking Technology Crude Oil By Rail Market Drivers Lower Crude Oil Prices Unfavorable Price Spreads Ave. Month hly U.S. Rig Cou unts 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 U.S. Rig Count** UNP Frac Sand Carloads* UNP Crude Oil Carloads 30,000 20, ,000 0 Dec-15 UNP Mont thly Carloads * Includes barites ** Source: Baker Hughes 8

5 Grain Volumes Export Grain Flows Major UP-Served Grain Producing Region U.S. Grain Exports* (Bushels in Millions) 2013/ /15 1,920 1,864 1,843 1,700 1,638 1,690 /16 Est. 1, Corn Soybeans Wheat *Source: USDA January ,000 7,500 UNP Weekly Grain Carloads (As reported to the AAR) ,000 4, * 3, *Through February 6, Intermodal Seattle Portland Sparks NorCal Los Angeles Las Vegas Salt Lake City Tucson Nogales Intermodal Terminals Ports Interchange Points El Paso Denver Eagle Pass Omaha Laredo KC Dallas San Antonio Houston Chicago St. Louis Memphis Shreveport New Orleans Volume Mix International 49% Domestic 51% Retail Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Nov-15

6 Chemicals Revenue: $3.5 Billion Canadian Oil Sands Potash Soda Ash / Trona Ore Bakken Niobrara Volume Mix Petroleum /LPG 15% Soda Ash 11% Industrial Chemicals 26% Crude Oil 8% Fertilizer 17% Plastics 23% Key End-Use Markets (% of Volume) Crop Production Automotive 15% 6% Port Storage-in-Transit Permian Eagle Ford Gulf Coast Infrastructure Consumer Goods 43% Fuel & Energy 26% Construction 10% 11 U.S. Vehicle Sales and Drivers Volume Mix Seattle Portland Oakland Salt Lake City Eastport Twin Cities Omaha Denver Kansas City Duluth Chicago St. Louis Auto Parts 43% Finished Vehicles 57% U.S. Light Vehicle SAAR* Los Angeles Dallas Memphis Borders & Interchange Houston New Orleans 10.4 Distribution Centers/Ports (UP Owned/Leased and Private) Assembly Centers (UP served) E 2017E 2018E 2019E *Source: January 2016 IHS Global Insight forecast 12

7 UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Strong Investments Foreign & Domestic Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands) +8% Flat +3% % % '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 15 Coal 1% Chemicals 6% Volume Mix (In Carloads) Intermodal Industrial 22% 9% Ag Products 14% Autos 48% 13 Strengthening the Franchise Replacement, Growth & Productivity, and PTC 2016 Capital Plan: ~$3.75 Billion* ($ in Millions) Infrastructure Replacement $1,825 Locomotives/ Equipment $965 PTC $375 Technology/ Other $190 Capacity/ Commercial Facilities $395 *Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital. Safe & Resilient Infrastructure Capacity Investments t Southern Region Network Strategies Equipment Acquisitions 230 New Locomotives 450 Freight Cars Positive Train Control 14

8 Leverage & Shareholder Returns ($ In Millions) Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA* /31/2013** 12/31/2014** 12/31/ Dividends & Share Repurchases ($ In Millions) Share Repurchases Dividends +37% $3,551 $4, % $5,809 Strong Balance Sheet Investment Grade Credit Rating $3.35 Billion Debt Issuance in Repurchased 15% of Shares over past 5 years * * includes 4Q14 dividend payment made Jan. 2, * See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP. ** Prior periods have been adjusted for the retrospective adoption of Accounting Standard Update Summary of 2016 Key Guidance First Quarter Coal Volume Down 20% or so Total Volume Down Mid-Single Digits Full Year Total Volume Down Slightly Fuel & Mix Pressure Record Productivity Improved Operating Ratio Capital Plan of ~$3.75 Billion 16

9 Aspiring to New Levels: G Kicked off Fall 15 Focused Teams Turbocharge Productivity All Areas New Capital Efficiency Approaches Improve the Customer Experience New Business Development Continue Pricing to Service & Value $ Billions of Ideas Launch in G Key Initiatives Initiatives: Engineering Fuel Support Frontline Locomotive Sourcing Car Corridor Terminal All Other Projects Relative Operating Expense + Capital Savings 45+ Projects Increased Annual Productivity 18

10 Realizing Potential of the Franchise 87.5 Operating Ratio (Percent) / Day Volume (000s) Target Realizing 55 19