Spanish popularity soars on strong performance growth and attractive asset pricing

Transcription

1 Europe Hotel Investment, Q Spanish popularity soars on strong performance growth and attractive asset pricing -6% Q y/y -34% YTD Q y/y -23% Q y/y Table 1: Hotel Transaction Volumes Investment market ( millions) Q Q3 2016, y/y % Change YTD Q YTD Q3 2016, y/y % Change Germany ,834-7 United Kingdom , France Spain Italy Ireland Nordics* CEE** Benelux*** European Total**** 3, , *Consists of Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden. ** Consists of Austria, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Croatia, Serbia. *** Consists of Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg. ****The country/regional volumes provided do not add up to the European Total. The European hotel transaction volume year-to-date continues to reflect a testing 2016, down -34% on However, quarter three was profoundly more positive than the opening half of the year, down only -6% on a strong third quarter of Key capital markets including France and the UK remain a challenge for investors, owing to the impact of terrorism and Brexit respectively. Nonetheless, Germany valiantly remains the keystone and frontrunner for European hotel liquidity in 2016, supported by growing activity in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe. The greatest year-on-year growth for Q3 was recorded in Spain (+162% ), a market in great demand but with limited obvious opportunities. With the Mediterranean Resort & Hotel Real Estate F orum around the corner (30 th Nov to 2 nd Dec in Barcelona, Spain), CBRE has focussed this edition of the European Hotel Investment MarketView on the Spanish hotel market; containing data, analysis and insight on unlocking opportunities in the market. Q CB RE Resea r ch 2016 CB RE L t d 1

2 % Index 2000=100 Index 2007=100 MARKE T VI EW FO CUS O N SPA IN Figure 3: Key countries international tourism arrivals index, 2000 to 2018F Figure 1: Real GDP index, 2000 to 2018F Eurozone France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom Source: Oxford Economics 2016 Figure 2: Spanish employment, inflation (CPI) and private consumption France Spain Source: World Tourism Organisation 2016 Figure 4: Spanish cities RevPAR, % y/y Barcelona Granada Bilbao Salamanca Madrid Málaga Murcia Valencia Sevilla Alicante San Sebastian Zaragoza Cordoba La Coruña Italy United Kingdom Employment - % y/y Inflation, consumer price index - level Consumption, private, real, LCU - % y/y Source: Oxford Economics % y/y YTD April 2016 FY 2015 Source: Exeltur 2016 Q CB RE Resea r ch 2016 CB RE L t d 2

3 billion MARKE T VI EW Figure 5: Spanish resort RevPAR, % y/y Costa de Luz de Costa Tropical Lanzarote Island Tenerife Island Gran Canaria Island Costa de Luz de Cadiz Mallorca Island Fuertaventura Island Costa del Sol Almeria Coast Menorca Island Figure 6: Real estate (exc. residential) loan portfolio activity, H Source: Exeltur % y/y FY 2015 YTD April 2016 Completed Ongoing Source: Deloitte 2016 HOTEL DEBT TRANSACTIONS AN IRISH PERSPECTIVE Paul Collins, Head of Hotels Ireland, CBRE In Ireland we have experienced a significant amount of debt sales over the past three to four years. The National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) have been behind most transactions but many banks have also been active sellers, including Ulster Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Bank of Ireland, IBRC (former Anglo Irish Bank), Danske and Permanent TSB. From the Irish experience, the early buyers of debt have enjoyed exceptional returns on their acquisitions. Nonetheless, there remains excellent value in current debt packages so long as buyers undertake thorough underwriting and engage the services of a strong team of consultants with a deep understanding and local knowledge of the legal system, employment law and all facets of the real estate market. Q CB RE Resea r ch 2016 CBRE Ltd. 3

4 Cap rate Cap rate Cap rate MARKE T VI EW Figure 7: Operational lease CBRE house terminal cap rates, prime 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Madrid Barcelona Spanish Islands Figure 8:Management contract CBRE house terminal cap rates, prime 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% Madrid Barcelona Spanish Islands Figure 9:Vacant possession CBRE house terminal cap rates, prime 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% Madrid Barcelona Spanish Islands Q CB RE Resea r ch 2016 CBRE Ltd. 4

5 CBR E HO USE HO TEL YIEL DS All of the published yields are for indicative purposes and emphasis should be given to the relative movement of yields, not each data point in isolation. In producing and publishing yields, CBRE relies on the expert interpretation of deals, valuations and sen timent within each given market. Table 2: Hotel Operational Lease Yields Hotel operational lease yields* Q Q Q q/q change (BPs) y/y change (BPs) Germany (Top 5) Vienna Warsaw Paris Regional UK (Prime) London Dublin Madrid Barcelona Spanish Islands Oslo Rome Milan Amsterdam Brussels Istanbul Athens Copenhagen 5.25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Q CB RE Resea r ch 2016 CBRE Ltd. 5

6 Table 3: Hotel Management Contract Yields Hotel management contract yields* Q Q Q q/q change (BPs) y/y change (BPs) Germany (Top 5) Vienna Warsaw Prague Budapest Paris Regional UK (Prime) London Dublin Madrid Barcelona Spanish Islands Oslo Rome Milan Amsterdam Brussels Istanbul Athens Copenhagen 7.25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Q CB RE Resea r ch 2016 CBRE Ltd. 6

7 Table 4: Hotel Vacant Possession Yields Hotel vacant possession yields* Q Q Q q/q change (BPs) y/y change (BPs) Germany (Top 5) Vienna Warsaw Paris Regional UK (Prime) London Dublin Madrid Barcelona Spanish Islands Oslo Rome Milan Amsterdam Brussels Istanbul Athens Copenhagen N/A N/A N/A Q CB RE Resea r ch 2016 CBRE Ltd. 7

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