Major Market Indicators 1 Commodity Current Week Last Four Weeks Last 52 Weeks Totals
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1 Week of January 2 January 6, 217 Summary of Energy Market Developments Electricity peak prices rose across the country last week, except in southern California. Prices jumped up $15 to average $64/MWh in New England and up $14 to average $45/MWh at PJM. EIA projects that the average residential customer will consume 3% more electricity between December 216 and March 217 compared with the same period last winter. However, this forecast is highly dependent on winter temperatures. Total U.S. consumption of electricity in 216 was 1.2% lower than in 215. For all of 216, EIA estimates residential electricity sales were unchanged from 215. Forecast residential sales remain flat in 217 and increase by.9% in 218. Sales of electricity to the commercial sector were relatively unchanged in 216 and are expected to remain flat in 217, followed by growth of.7% in 218. Industrial electricity sales declined by 4.3% in 216 and are expected to rise by 3.% in 217 and by.5% in The U.S. residential electricity price averaged 12.5 cents per kilowatthour (kwh) in October 216. This price is 2.1% lower than the U.S. residential price in October 215. EIA expects the annual average U.S. residential electricity price to increase by 2.6% in 217 and by 2.5% in The U.S. economic expansion will become more balanced as 216 ends, with consumer spending, residential construction, business fixed investment, and government spending all contributing to economic growth. (EIA s Short-Term Energy Outlook January 1, 217) Major Market Indicators 1 Commodity Current Week Last Four Weeks Last 52 Weeks Totals Electricity Production (bkwh) Total U.S ,29.9 Percent change from % 6.6%.5% 121 F Street, NW Suite 11 Washington, DC Electricity Peak Prices ($/MWh) Averages ERCOT-North (TX) NEPOOL (Northeast) Palo Verde (Southwest) PJM West Real-time (Northeast) SOCO (Southeast) NA NP 15 (CA) SP 15 (Southwest) Natural Gas Trends Henry Hub Price ($/MMBtu) Rig Count Spark Spreads 7,5 Btu/kWh) SOCO / Henry NA Oil Trends Cushing OK WTI ($/Barrel) Rig Count Uranium Spot Prices ($/lb U3O8) UxConsulting TradeTech
2 2 Energy Markets Report, January 2 January 6, Summary of Energy Market Developments (continued) Average nuclear plant availability rose one percent last week, to 97 percent. Cook 2 and Sequoyah 1 returned to service after completing refueling and maintenance outages. During its outage, Cook 2 replaced its main turbine, three low-pressure turbines, and 21 baffle bolts. (Platts and company reports) Uranium spot prices rose $1.75 per pound last week, to average $22./lb U 3 O 8, according to Ux Consulting. Part of the recent increase in the offer side can be attributed to reactions to previous announced cutbacks as well as rumors of other potential shifts in production levels in 217, and the fact that less producer inventory was reported as making its way into the near-term market as was expected.... Kazatomprom is acutely aware of not only the oversupply situation, but also its position as the primary production region of the world. The moves to curtail U3O8 production is one of the major steps in helping to rebalance the uranium market. There are several other factors that would suggest that the spot uranium price could firm up further going forward. Previous low interest rates and limited inflation played their part in the decline in price, but these two factors are also now shifting and could contribute not only to an increasing spot price but also to further shape the forward curve. However, with pockets of inventory still available, buying interest highly discretionary, and liquidity remaining limited, price volatility is expected to continue in the market during 217. It will be interesting to see how price movements develop over the next several weeks, especially following the latest Kazatomprom announcement. (Ux Consulting s Ux Weekly January 9, 217) Natural gas spot prices at the Henry Hub fell 18 cents, to average $3.45/MMBtu. The gas rotary rig count rose by three, to 135 rigs. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell 25 cents per barrel last week, to average $53.34/bbl. The oil rotary rig count rose by four, to 529 rigs. Energy Futures Markets 2 Months Ahead Commodity Feb 217 Jul 217 Jan 218 Electricity Futures ($/MWh) AEP Dayton NA MISO-Cinergy NYISO A NA NA NA PJM Natural Gas Futures ($/MMBtu) Henry Hub Crude Oil Futures ($/Barrel) Light Sweet Crude EIA Forecasts (Cost to Electric Utilities) Coal ($/MMBTU) Natural Gas ($/MMBTU) Fuel Oil ($/MMBTU) Electric Demand (Monthly, BkWh) Nuclear Plant Outages Refueling Date Shutdown Maintenance Date Shutdown Cook 2 1/5-1/1 Grand Gulf 9/8 Sequoyah 1 11/26-12/31
3 3 Energy Markets Report, January 2 January 6, 217 Electricity Day Ahead Trends 35 West Hubs ($/MWh) East Hubs ($/MWh) Palo Verde SP 15 ERCOT-North NP 15 NEPOOL MH DA LMP SOCO PJM West Real-time /1 2/5 3/2 3/28 4/23 5/19 6/14 7/1 8/5 8/31 9/26 1/22 11/17 12/13 1/1 2/5 3/2 3/28 4/23 5/19 6/14 7/1 8/5 8/31 9/26 1/22 11/17 12/13 Natural Gas Trends Crude Oil Trends 7 6 Henry Hub Gas Prices ($/MMBtu) and Gas Rig Count Rig Count 1, 9 8 Cushing OK WTI Oil Prices ($/Barrel) and Oil Rig Count Rig Count 1,6 1, , Month Average Gas Price Month Average Oil Price , /8 2/3 2/29 3/26 4/21 5/17 6/12 7/8 8/3 8/29 9/24 1/2 11/15 12/11 1/6 1/8 2/3 2/29 3/26 4/21 5/17 6/12 7/8 8/3 8/29 9/24 1/2 11/15 12/11 1/6 Uranium Price Trends EIA Outlook Trends 8 Uranium Prices ($/lb U3O8) Fuel Cost to Electric Utilities $/MMBtu 25 January UxC TradeTech Coal 1 Fuel Oil Natural Gas 2 5 1/8 2/3 2/29 3/26 4/21 5/17 6/12 7/8 8/3 8/29 9/24 1/2 11/15 12/11 1/6 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18
4 4 Energy Markets Report, January 2 January 6, 217 Nuclear Plant Availability by NERC Region (Percent, Dash Represents 1%) 3 January January Region/Plant Region/Plant RFC SERC Beaver Valley Arkansas Nuclear One Beaver Valley Arkansas Nuclear One Braidwood Browns Ferry Braidwood Browns Ferry Byron Browns Ferry Byron Brunswick Callaway Brunswick Calvert Cliffs Catawba Calvert Cliffs Catawba Clinton Farley D.C. Cook Farley D.C. Cook Grand Gulf 1 Davis-Besse Harris Dresden Hatch Dresden Hatch Fermi McGuire Hope Creek McGuire La Salle North Anna La Salle North Anna Limerick Oconee Limerick Oconee Oyster Creek Oconee Palisades River Bend Peach Bottom Robinson Peach Bottom Saint Lucie Perry Saint Lucie Point Beach Sequoyah Point Beach Sequoyah Quad Cities Summer Quad Cities Surry Salem Surry Salem Turkey Point Susquehanna Turkey Point Susquehanna Vogtle Three Mile Island Vogtle Waterford MRO Watts Bar Cooper Watts Bar Duane Arnold Monticello SPP/ERCOT Prairie Island Comanche Peak Prairie Island Comanche Peak South Texas South Texas NPCC Wolf Creek FitzPatrick Ginna WECC Indian Point Columbia Indian Point Diablo Canyon Millstone Diablo Canyon Millstone Palo Verde Nine Mile Point Palo Verde Nine Mile Point Palo Verde Pilgrim Seabrook U.S. Average
5 5 Energy Markets Report, January 2 January 6, 217 Expected Generating Capacity to Come Online ( ) 4 Phase 1 - Proposed Total Coal Geothermal ,18 Hydro 387 1, ,831 Natural Gas 5,165 8,849 8,136 7,555 5,684 2,182 1,78 38,649 Nuclear 5 2,1 54 2,55 Other Renewables Petroleum Solar 16,591 4,533 2,32 5, ,568 Wind 18,811 9,51 5,947 8, ,642 Total 41,526 25,49 16,816 22,456 5,881 3,214 3, ,12 Phase 2 - App Pending, Feasibility Study, Permitted Coal ,218 Geothermal Hydro 6,163 4,316 2,28 1, ,729 15,676 Natural Gas 12,25 19,323 11,878 9, ,3 54,399 Nuclear 3,163 3, ,361 Other Renewables ,95 Petroleum 632 Solar 6,289 2,22 1,389 1, ,339 Wind 9,59 3,56 4,756 5, ,468 Total 36,261 3,45 21,52 21,28 5,61 2, , ,33 Phase 3 - Under Construction, Site Prep, Testing Coal Geothermal Hydro Natural Gas 15,795 11,976 3,146 2,156 33,74 Nuclear 2,217 2,217 4,434 Other Renewables Petroleum Solar 4, ,472 Wind 8, ,887 Total 29,98 12,862 5,363 4,779 52,985 1 Sources: Electricity prices ABB Velocity Suite, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Electricity data are peak prices and are for the day ahead except PJM West, which is based on real-time prices. Electricity production - Edison Electric Institute s Weekly Electric Output Report. Natural gas prices, spark spreads and oil prices - ABB Velocity Suite, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Rig counts - Baker Hughes, Inc. Spark spreads are calculated for the listed hub as electricity price minus natural gas generation cost. The natural gas generation cost is calculated for the listed hub as hub price multiplied by the noted heat rate (7,5 Btu/kWh). Allowance prices ABB Velocity Suite, Cantor Fitzgerald. Electricity production and oil prices lag one week from rest of data. Arrows indicate the increase or decrease in price/production from the previous week. 2 Sources: Electricity, natural gas and crude oil futures - ABB Velocity Suite, NYMEX, Clearport Futures. Forecasts - EIA s Short Term Energy Outlook January Nuclear plant availability is a daily estimate of the reactor s thermal power output provided by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and captured by ABB Velocity Suite. Plant highlights are from Platts Megawatt Daily, Platts Nuclear News Flashes, and company announcements. The NERC Regions are: RFC - Reliability First Council, MRO - Midwest Reliability Organization, NPCC - Northeast Power Coordinating Council, SERC - Southeast Electric Reliability Council, SPP - Southwest Power Pool, ERCOT - Electric Reliability Council of Texas, WECC - Western Electric Coordinating Council. 4 Expected generating capacity is from ABB Velocity Suite. Each phase is separate and does not include plants from the other phases. Four nuclear units in phase three (Summer 2, 3; Vogtle 3, 4) are under construction. Energy Markets Report is produced weekly by the Nuclear Energy Institute s Policy Development and Public Affairs Division.
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