2014 NATIONAL BASEBALL ARBITRATION COMPETITION

Transcription

1 2014 NATIONAL BASEBALL ARBITRATION COMPETITION Eric Hosmer v. Kansas City Royals Submission on Behalf of Kansas City Royals Midpoint: $3,650,000 Submission by Team 17

2 Table of Contents I. Introduction and Request for Hearing 3 II. Quality of Contribution in Past Season..3 A. Lack of Clutch Hitting...3 B. Inconsistency..4 III. Comparable Players....5 A. Nelson Cruz 5 B. Andre Ethier...6 C. Garrett Jones...7 IV. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions: Cyclical Inconsistency...8 V. Past Salary: League Minimum...9 VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects: Questionable Injuries VII. Recent Performance of Club: Room for Improvement VIII. Summary and Conclusion 11 List of Sources Baseball-Reference, Sports Reference, LLC, BaseballProspectus, Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC, CBS Sports, CBS Interactive, ESPN, espn.go.com MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, Basic Agreement, Art. VI(E)(10)(a) (b) New York Times, The New York Times Company, nytimes.com. SB Nation, Vox Media, Inc. Yahoo Sports, Yahoo, sports.yahoo.com. 2

3 I. Introduction and Request for Hearing This brief discusses and analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of left-handed first baseman Eric John Hosmer ( Mr. Hosmer ) in negotiating his 2014 contract with the Kansas City Royals ( the Club or the Royals ). The Major League Baseball ( MLB ) Collective Bargaining Agreement ( CBA ) requires consideration of the following criteria where determining a player s award: (1) the quality of the Player s contribution to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal); (2) the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player; (3) the length and consistency of his career contribution; (4) the record of the Player s past compensation; (5) comparative baseball salaries; and (6) the recent performance record of the Club, including but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance. 1 Mr. Hosmer has reached years of MLB service, making him eligible for arbitration as a Super Two. Due to weaknesses in hitting production with runners in scoring position and average batting declines in clutch hitting situations, Mr. Hosmer is not worth the $3.65 million midpoint. While he is a promising and talented player, $3.3 million offers a fair and amicable representation of Mr. Hosmer s value to the club for the 2014 season. Therefore, the Royals respectfully request that this panel find that Hosmer is entitled to a 2014 salary arbitration award of $3.3 million. II. Quality of Contribution in Past Season A. Lack of Clutch Hitting Mr. Hosmer is an overall noteworthy player, but his failure to produce in clutch batting situations indicates that he is not deserving of his requested salary. Although he 1 MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, Basic Agreement, Art. VI(E)(10)(a) (b) 3

4 batted.302 during the 2013 season, 2 this number significantly declined in clutch hitting situations. With runners in scoring position (RISP), Hosmer batted a mere Furthermore, his batting average dropped another 72 points to an asbymal.190 when batting with RISP and two outs. 4 While Mr. Hosmer was a first basement for most of the Royals season, with 79 RBIs, 188 hits, and 17 home runs, his clutch hitting woes were exemplified with men on and two outs, when he hit Considering the fact that he batted either second, third, or clean-up in 127/159 games played, 6 this significantly reduced RBI opportunities for the team s power hitters, and destroyed momentum for potential rallies. Not only does this indicate that Hosmer shies away in big-game situations, but it is also indicative of a young player who has development left in his career. B. Inconsistency While Mr. Hosmer s averages increased after the All-Star break, they were inflated through weak competition. At this point in the season, many teams were far removed from playoff contention, thus indicating he faced weaker competition during his most successful months. In August and September, the Royals played the Chicago White Sox winning percentage - 9 times, the Minnesota Twins winning percentage - 9 times, and the Seattle Mariners winning percentage - 7 times. 7 Additionally, when batting 4th, 5th, and 6th, Mr. Hosmer s batting averages dropped significantly, to.279,.253, and.250 respectively. 8 Although Hosmer won a golden glove for his role as a first baseman, so 2 Eric Hosmer Statistics and History, Baseball-Reference Eric Hosmer-Situational Stats, YaHoo Sports. 7 Eric Hosmer Statistics and History, Baseball-Reference. 8 Eric Hosmer-Situational Stats, YaHoo Sports. 4

5 did two of his other teammates. 9 Additionally, at least according to some commentators, Mr. Hosmer was not deserving of this award. 10 Mr. Hosmer is certainly highly valued by the Royals. However, coupled with Hosmer s canny ability to shun the spotlight in clutch situations, he is more deserving of the Kansas City Royal s $3.3 million offer. III. Comparable Players In order to properly evaluate Hosmer s value to the Royals, it is helpful to compare his platform season with the platform seasons of Garret Jones ( Jones ), Tyler Colvin ( Colvin ), Nelson Cruz ( Cruz ) and Andre Ethier ( Ethier ) when these players were first arbitration eligible. A. Nelson Cruz Player 11 G AB H R 2B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS Nelson Cruz (2010) $2.25Million Eric Hosmer In 2010, Cruz s platform season, Cruz and the Texas Rangers reached an arbitration settlement of $3,650,000. In that season, Cruz had 22 home runs, with 31 doubles, 78 RBIs, and a.950 OPS on 399 at-bats. 12 The chart above displays certain similarities between Hosmer s and Cruz s platform seasons, but accentuates Cruz s superior power hitting ability, and displays Cruz s superiority in almost every statistical category. While 9 See, Rob Neyer, 2013 Gold Gloves: New Statistics Lead to New Winners, 10 See, (arguing inflated numbers led to Hosmer s award and that James Loney was more deserving). 11 Nelson Cruz Statistics and History, Baseball-Reference

6 Cruz played 44 fewer games than Hosmer (108 to 159), Cruz hit more home runs (22 to 17), and drove in merely one fewer run over the course of the season. In addition, Cruz hit just one less double, and had one less RBI than Hosmer. Cruz s batting average and related statistics far surpassed Mr. Hosmer s numbers during their perspective platform seasons. Cruz batted a full 16 points higher than Mr. Hosmer (.318 to.302), had a.21 higher on base percentage (.374 to.353), and slugged a full 130 points higher than Hosmer (.578 to.448). This demonstrates Cruz s vast superiority in OPS (.950 to.801). These numbers show Cruz to be the better hitter, not only with respect to getting on base, but with regard to power. Cruz s power numbers would likely have been greater had he played more games. He was on pace to slug 28 home runs had he played the same amount of games as Hosmer, and was on pace to drive in 100 RBIs. 13 Based upon the fact that Hosmer batted in the 3 rd, 4 th, or 5 th spots in the order in 96/159 games played, 14 the Royals perceived Hosmer as a power hitter. Considering that Cruz hit for more power, in less games, the arbitration settlement should be reflective thereof. Accordingly, the team offer for Hosmer, $3,300,000 is a fair price, considering Cruz - a better power hitter - earned $3,650,000. B. Andre Ethier Player G AB H R 2B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS Andre Ethier 15 (2008) $3.1Million Eric Hosmer-Situational Stats, YaHoo Sports Andre Ethier, Baseball-Reference. 6

7 Eric Hosmer In 2008, Ethier s platform season, Ethier and The Los Angeles Dodgers reached a settlement of $3.1 million, under the midpoint of $3.2 million. 16 In that season, Ethier outpaced Hosmer in almost every relevant metric in less games. Ethier boasted a.305 batting average (Hosmer -.302) with a.885 OPS (Hosmer -.801), hitting 20 home-runs (Hosmer 17), 38 doubles (Hosmer 34), 90 runs (Hosmer 86), with 77 RBIs on 525 atbats, in 141 games. While Ethier had less hits that Hosmer, Ethier was more consistent, especially based on his superior OPS average. Additionally, Ethier was an integral part of a Dodgers team that went to the National League Conference Championship. 17 Conversely, Hosmer has never played a post-season game. Ethier did more and was more productive in less games during his platform season than Hosmer in Notwithstanding, Ethier agreed to accept a $3.1 million contract. With Ethier s 2009 agreement as a precedent, $3.3 million constitutes a fair valuation for Hosmer s 2014 services. C. Garrett Jones Player G AB H R 2B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS Garret Jones 18 (2011) $2.25Million Eric Hosmer Ken Gurnick, Dodgers, Ethier Avoid Arbitration, MLB, 17 Los Angeles Dodgers 2008 Statistics, Baseball-Reference Garrett Jones Statistics and History, Baseball-Reference. 7

8 In 2011, Jones s platform season, arbitrators awarded him the Pittsburg Pirates $2.25 million offer. 19 In that season, Jones had 21 home runs (Hosmer 17) on 592 at-bats (Hosmer 623), with 34 doubles (same as Hosmer), and 86 RBIs (Hosmer 79) in 158 games. While Jones had a lower batting average at.247, his power numbers exceeded Hosmer s in terms of home runs and RBIs. Additionally, Jones is arguably more versatile, serving as both a first baseman and a right fielder. Finally, Jones s award was significantly lower at $2.25 million, and serves as an appropriate comparison point when awarding Hosmer s salary. With Jones s arbitration award as a precedent, the Royal s $3.3 million offer is adequate. IV. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions: Cyclical Inconsistency Year 20 Games AB Runs Doubles RBIs HR BA Slugging OPS Mr. Hosmer, a South Miami, Florida native, was drafted in 2008, and played throughout the Royals farm system until he was called up to the Majors in He is coming off of the best year of his career. Nonetheless, his statistics have greatly fluctuated over the past three seasons. The only statistic that has increased each year for Mr. Hosmer is strikeouts. 21 As a rookie, he struck out just 84 times in 128 games; however, this number increased to 95 and 100, respectively, over the next two seasons. 22 As Mr. Hosmer s 19 AP, Garrett Jones to Be Paid $2.25 million, ESPN Eric Hosmer-Situational Stats, YaHoo Sports

9 strikeout numbers have steadily increased throughout his career, the remaining majority of his batting numbers have taken a cyclical form over that time. In 2012, Mr. Hosmer s batting statistics dramatically decreased in nearly every statistical category when compared to his rookie season. Although he played in 34 more games, his statistics decreased in runs scored, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, RBIs, and batting average. 23 In his second season, Mr. Hosmer batted a mere.232, including reduced power production with his home run totals decreased by 35% and his RBIs decreased by 30%. Throughout his major league career, as indicated in the table above, Mr. Hosmer s production has resembled a pendulum of sorts increasing and decreasing dramatically from season to season. Although Mr. Hosmer s numbers increased again during the 2013 season, his lack of consistency is worrisome moving forward. Mr. Hosmer s inconsistent productivity leaves the Royals wondering which Eric Hosmer to expect moving forward. Although the Royals hope Mr. Hosmer has a quality 2014 season, the pattern of his major league career thus far suggests otherwise, mainly that he will dramatically drop in batting statistics. Accordingly, the Royals $3,300,000 million offer properly accounts for this inconsistency and the high possibility of decreased productivity moving forward. V. Past Salary: League Minimum Mr. Hosmer s past salaries reflect concerns of his consistency. In 2012, he received a salary of $502,500, which increased to $528,250 in The minimum for 2012 was 23 Eric Hosmer Statistics and History, Baseball-Reference

10 $480,000, 25 while the minimum for 2013 was $490, Indeed, the Royals offer of $3.3 million is a substantial and appropriate increase to Mr. Hosmer s salary, mainly because it accurately reflects the Royals conservative optimism towards Mr. Hosmer s 2014 potential. VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects: Questionable Injuries Mr. Hosmer has had two notable injuries. He was sidelined towards the end of 2012 with a shoulder injury. 27 Because this injury occurred in the Royals 2012 season finale, Mr. Hosmer did not miss any time. Additionally, Mr. Hosmer injured his hand early in the 2013 season, which likely hurt his early season numbers. Hosmer hit.250 in April and.269 in May, with 8 RBIs in each month. 28 Hosmer s inconsistency must be taken into consideration in his salary award, thus warranting the Royals $3.3 million offer. VII. Recent Performance of Club: Room for Improvement The Royals finished their 2013 campaign with an record, good for 3 rd in the AL Central. 29 Such was a particularly strong performance for a club that has had its fair share of past struggles. While the Royals finished 3 rd in the AL Central, they were only 7 games back of the division leading Detroit Tigers. 30 Although the Royals did not reach the playoffs in 2013, they vastly improved from their record in Their improvement is attributable to a young core of players, including Mr. Hosmer, catcher 25 Eric Stephen, MLB Minimum Salary to Increase to $480,000 with New CBA, SB Nation MLBPA INFO Dick Kaegel, Hosmer, Escobar Exit Finale with Shoulder Injuries, MLB.com Eric Hosmer-Splits, YaHoo Sports Kansas City Royals, Baseball-Reference AL Leaders, Baseball-Reference. 10

11 Salvador Perez, third baseman Manny Machado all three winning golden glove awards 32 and the likes of Alex Gordon and Billy Bulter, who provided power hitting. 33 Indeed, the Royals a small market team by any measure with notable low attendance 34 have successful prospects moving forward. While Mr. Hosmer has played a significant role for the Royals, he will need to repeat and improve upon his past contributions to guarantee future successes. The Royals believe that Mr. Hosmer can continue to develop and improve as a player, along with the rest of the Royals young core. Because the Royals believe Mr. Hosmer will fulfill this role, their $3.3 million offer is appropriate. VIII. Summary and Conclusion In his short tenure in the majors, Eric Hosmer has shown that he has the potential and skills to become a remarkable player. The Royals are appreciative of the hard-work and persistence that Mr. Hosmer has displayed in his three years with the Royals, and believe that he can continue to benefit the club in the future. However, given anxieties with his clutch hitting, consistency, and cyclical metrics, the Royals are appropriately concerned that Mr. Hosmer has over valued himself. The Royals will depend on him for power hitting and fielding, looking for Mr. Hosmer to improve on his past statistics in order to guarantee success. Before Mr. Hosmer warrants a $4 million valuation, he will have to prove himself. Thus, based on the evidence, comparisons, and precedents provided in this brief, the Royals respectfully request that this panel award Mr. Hosmer a salary of $3.3 million. 32 Mike Axisa, Three Orioles, Three Royals headline 2013 Gold Glove Winners, CBS Sports Kansas City Royals, Baseball-Reference The Royals placed 12 th out of 15 th for AL teams in attendance. 11

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