Indicators of Postseason Success in Major League Baseball
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1 Indicators of Postseason Success in Major League Baseball What do World Series-winning teams do during the regular season that indicates a higher chance of success in the postseason?
2 Background An MLB season for one team consists of 162 games. The postseason can consist of anywhere from depending on how quickly a team wins their games. The league currently has 30 teams, with 10 making the playoffs. The MLB is divided into 2 leagues, each with three divisions. Division winners automatically make the playoffs, and each league has two wild-card teams that play a one game elimination round to see who advances. I examine data from The only year not to have a World Series in this stretch was 1994, a strike-shortened season.
3 Why did I ask? The best team during the regular season is not a shoe-in to win the World Series. Since 1970, only 10 teams have won the most games and won the World Series. This suggests the need for a better characterization of the best team. So what makes a team the best?
4 The Basic Idea In the long run, teams will play half of their games against above average teams, and half against below average teams. But these games are not equally indicative of a team s skill level. Losing a close game to a very good team could carry more weight than an easy win over a very bad team. Wins over good teams mean more than wins over bad teams. Every team also plays the same number of games in April as they do in September. But games played in April say little about a team s skill level in October. Considering injuries and mid-season acquisitions, teams can look very different at these two times of the year.
5 So what do we do? To place more weight on games against good teams, I calculated the win percentage of each team against teams that finished in the top third of the league in that year. I chose the top third because (these days) roughly a third of the league makes the playoffs, and it makes sense to see how a team plays against other playoff-caliber teams. To place more weight on late-season games, I calculated the win percentage of every team just in September/October of the regular season. This gives us an indicator of whether a team is hot or not going into the postseason.
6 Results: Winning in September It turns out that success towards the end of the regular season does not necessarily carry into the playoffs. Both parametric and nonparametric tests reveal that the difference in average of world series winners, and those who did not win the world series, is insignificant.
7 Results: Winning against Top Teams There is a significant difference in how well world series winning teams performed against top teams in the league, and how the rest of the league performed against top teams. Tests reveal a significant difference in the average win percentage of the two groups.
8 Conclusion The information gleaned from this project does little to predict an actual winner of the world series. HOWEVER it introduces a criterion for even being considered for postseason success. Teams that win the most regular season games have gone on to win the World Series 10 times from But these teams are guaranteed to make the playoffs, while teams with a winpercentage against top teams >.575 are not. Teams with the most wins are also given the easiest path to the World Series (as in any bracketed competition). From a Bayesian standpoint, the prior probability of a team with the most wins going on to win the World Series is much higher than the prior probability of a team with a win-percentage against top teams >.575 going on to win the World Series.
9 Conclusion When we take into account that teams have to make the playoffs and go on to win the World Series, we find that, there is a 47% chance that the World Series winner is a team with a win-percentage versus top teams greater than.575. That is a significant improvement over blindly choosing the best regular season team to win it all.
10 Potential Problems With my Analysis Small sample size Only 39 teams have won the World Series in the time period I m working over In each season, teams play a limited number of games against good teams My coding skills are far from perfect, and it is possible that I made a mistake somewhere in my code which skewed my results. The playoffs are structured differently now than they used to be. Today, teams have to win at minimum 3 different series (one best of 5, two best of 7), including a possible one game elimination round. From , teams had to win only two rounds, and from there were three rounds, and no play-in game. This change in playoff format may have skewed a teams likelihood of winning the World Series in the earlier years, since it was easier once a team was in the playoffs.
11 Citation Retrosheet The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at " Baseball Prospectus Baseball Reference Wikipedia
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