Statistics and Research: Motivation for Research Big picture:understanding how the mind works. Small Picture: Individual researchers
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1 Statistics and Research: Motivation for Research Big picture:understanding how the mind works How does memory work? How do people interact with each other? Why do people get depressed? Small Picture: Individual researchers Maximize rewards Minimize costs
2 Statistics and Research: Research Positives Fun Challenging Discovery Community Novelty Recognition Writing (rare) Fame (rare) Money (rare)
3 Statistics and Research: Research Negatives Problems are hard Competition is tough Failure is common Most smart people used to success Can waste lots of time Money Could make much more elsewhere? Publishing
4 Statistics and Research: How is Research Done? Producing explanations of how our minds work Theories & Models Thinking is very complicated Explain complicated process with much simpler picture Finding a question is very difficult Build upon previous work Must know a lot before starting What's been done before What's unanswered Requires a lot of reading and critical thinking Must have method to address question Might need new method
5 Statistics and Research: Find a Question and Answer it Find a question to study Experimental Method Manipulate things (sometimes) Independent variable Measure behavior Dependent variables
6 Statistics and Research: Neuroscience Behavior can be brain activity Neuroimaging PET (positron emission tomography) fmri (functional magnetic resonance imaging) Electrophysiological Methods Event-related potentials using EEG Direct recordings on living brain Single-cell recording in primates
7 Statistics and Research: Example Question - Conjunction Fallacy Example: Conjunction Fallacy Condition 1 Statement A Example: Linda is a bank teller Condition 2 Statement A and Statement B Example: Linda is a bank teller and an active feminist Logic : Condition 1 is more likely People: Condition 2 is more likely (Error)
8 Statistics and Research: Example Question - Procedure Linda is a 31 year old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Please rank the following by their probability (1=most likely, 6 = least likely) Single Condition Linda is a university professor Linda is an insurance salesperson Linda is a bank teller Conjunction Condition Linda is a university professor Linda is an insurance salesperson Linda is a bank teller and an active feminist Linda is an owner of a book store Linda is an owner of a book store Linda is a single mom and takes Linda is a single mom and takes classes at night school classes at night school Single and Conjunction Statments Rated for Probability
9 Statistics and Research: Example Question - Bad Control Single Condition Linda is a university professor Linda is an insurance salesperson Linda is a bank teller Linda is an owner of a book store Conjunction Condition Linda is a taxidermist Linda is a professional boxer Linda is a bank teller and an active feminist Linda is the CEO of General Motors Linda is a single mom and takes Linda is the first astronaut to classes at night school Mars Bad Control Condition for Experiment Why is this a bad control? Research Objective: Work hard to make EVERYTHING in experiment but your Independent Variable the same for all conditions
10 Statistics and Research: Example Question - Data Collection and Analysis Measure 20 subjects in each condition Average (mean) rating (Dependent Variable) Condition 1 -- Linda is a bank teller. Mean=3.4 Condition 2 -- Linda is a bank teller AND an active feminist. Mean=4.5 Which condition produces higher rating? Definitely not condition 1 Condition 2? Or neither? Answer: It depends on statistical analysis
11 Statistics and Research: Hypothesis Tests Statistical Hypothesis Testing Create inferences (EDUCATED GUESSES) from results based on probabilities Calculate chance of the results happening given NO difference are unlikely (p<.05) Assume group 1 = group 2, Show it is LIKELY TO BE BAD ASSUMPTION Conclude 1 <> 2
12 Statistics and Research: Visualizing Hypothesis Tests I Two Possible Causes for Observed Differences Thickness of line = probability What caused differences? Variability Differences in the world between groups
13 Statistics and Research: Visualizing Hypothesis Tests II Reject Null Hypothesis = Reject Variability as Cause of Differences Thin line= low probability Thick line= high probability
14 Statistics and Research: What Effects 'p value' The p value Probability that observed differences were caused by variability Factors affecting p value p value of this experiment With low variability, p=0.01 (reject null hypothesis: p<.05) With high variability, p=0.10 (do not reject null hypothesis: p>.05)
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