Feasibility Study Madian Hydropower Project. Introduction. 7166P02/Vol. II, Introduction

Transcription

1 1 Introduction 7166P02/Vol. II, Introduction

2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction Authorization and Scope of Work Authorization Scope of Work Previous Works WAPDA and MONENCO SHYDO/GTZ Cascade Study Pre-Feasibility Study Objectives of the Feasibility Study Report Structure of the Feasibility Study Report P02/Vol. II, Introduction

3 1. Introduction The Ghulam Faruque Group has submitted an Expression of Interest to the Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB) of the Ministry of Water & Power, Islamabad, for the development of the Madian Hydropower Plant in the Upper Swat Valley. To implement the scheme the Madian Hydropower Ltd., a subsidiary company, was set up. Before making a substantial investment in the implementation of the hydropower project, a Feasibility Study shall be prepared in order to assess the technical, economic, financial and environmental viability of the Project. The services for the Project are carried out in three phases, i.e.: a) Phase I comprises the establishment of the database and the identification and comparison of alternatives. The results were summarized in a Pre-Feasibility Report indicating the most promising alternative for further investigations on feasibility level; b) During Phase II the selected alternative was optimised and final layouts and designs prepared as required for a bankable Feasibility Study; c) In Phase III the project study will be reviewed by the Panel of Experts (POE) resulting in the approval of the bankable Feasibility Study. The present Feasibility Report describes the works and results elaborated in Phase I and II. 1.1 Authorization and Scope of Work Authorization On 16 th January, 2007, the Madian Hydropower Ltd. and Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG of Germany (FICHTNER) reached an agreement whereby FICHTNER shall provide the consultancy services for a feasibility study of the, under a lump sum contract. During the course of the study, Madian Hydropower Ltd. is assisted by Colenco of Switzerland and ACE of Pakistan acting jointly as the Owner s Engineer. FICHTNER maintains a project office at Lahore, carries out the field work on site and provides the required services with support from the home office. The Consultant appointed a local sub-consultant, Pakistan Engineering Service (PES), Lahore, to assist in the elaboration of the feasibility study. Both Consultants assign their staff to the joint project office at Lahore situated at the Sales Office of Cherat Cement Co. Ltd. (part of Ghulam Faruque Group). 7166P02/Vol. II, Introduction 1-1

4 1.1.2 Scope of Work The scope of the study, as outlined in the Terms of Reference (ToR) is in brief as follows: Phase I To review previous studies and other earlier project related activities, To obtain any data deemed relevant by the Consultant, To assess the site conditions for Project Development, To identify and compare any alternatives, To prepare a new topographic survey of the project area. To establish the long term hydrological basis for the Project. To produce a preliminary geological/geo-technical model of the Project. To carry out preliminary engineering studies comprising the power potential and determination of design capacity. To prepare preliminary layouts and designs, cost estimates, a financial / economic assessment together with a tariff calculation, Phase II To define the controlling topographic, hydrologic, sedimentological and geotechnical parameters for the design of the project, To carry out detailed geological mapping and detailed geotechnical site investigations, comprising seismic refraction, sub-surface drillings, investigation pits and laboratory tests. To review and optimize the layout and design of the selected alternative. To assess the Project in the context of the cascade scheme. To make an environmental and social impact assessment, To prepare a detailed cost estimate and calculate the total construction / implementation costs. To carry out a risk analysis indicating the technical, economical and financial viability of the proposed scheme, and To evaluate the financial and economic characteristics, and determine the tariff. Phase III To present the draft Bankable Feasibility Study to the POE and PPIB. To review and complete the final Bankable Feasibility Study. 7166P02/Vol. II, Introduction 1-2

5 1.2 Previous Works WAPDA and MONENCO As far as the development of hydropower potential of the main river Swat is concerned, only one location was identified in the same area of Swat District jointly by WAPDA and MONENCO in November The planned hydropower project was named Kalam, its headworks were planned to be located one km downstream the confluence point between Gabral Khwar and Ushu River. The Kalam Hydropower Project was designed as concentrated fall development. It had been planned to construct a 160 m high rock fill dam creating a reservoir with a storage capacity of 316 hm³. The powerhouse would have had a capacity of 116 MW to produce a mean annual energy of 493 GWh. The city of Kalam would have been inundated in this case. The implementation of such a high dam project according to today s standards of environmental and social protection as well as for lack of economic viability, can be considered as not feasible SHYDO/GTZ A comprehensive study for assessment of hydropower potential of the region Identification of Hydropower Potential in Swat Valley, NWFP, Pakistan, was carried out between 1990 and 1995 under a Program of Pakistan-German Cooperation by the Sarhad Hydel Development Organization (SHYDO), Govt. of NWFP, and German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) This study covered the hydropower potential of the main rivers of Gabral Khwar and Swat River between Utror and Madian, as well as the potential of six other tributaries of Swat River. The power schemes identified on main stream Gabral-Swat were: Gabral-Kalam, Kalam-Kedam and Kedam-Madian The power schemes on smaller tributaries were: Batal Khwar/Utror, Ushu/Utror, Ushu/Matiltan, Chokel Khwar/Madian, Kedam Khwar/Kedam, Barl Dara/Garnai, Daral Khwar/Bahrain 7166P02/Vol. II, Introduction 1-3

6 1.2.3 Cascade Study 2006 In 2006, the engineering company MAES, Mirza Associates Engineering Services (PVT) Ltd. Lahore, conducted on behalf of the Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) a desktop study on the development of the hydropower potential in the Swat Valley by a cascade of five hydropower plants, i.e.: Matiltan, 84 MW Gabral Kalam, 101 MW Kalam-Asrit, 197 MW Asrit-Kedam, 209 MW Madian, 148 MW (subject of this feasibility study) The hydropower cascade on the Swat River is shown in Annex A-1.1. The main technical data of the Madian Project are given in Table 1.1. Unit Madian HPP Gross head m 160 Design discharge m³/s 120 Design capacity MW 148 Tunnel length km 12 Head WL m asl 1500 Tail WL m asl 1340 Head pond volume m³ Table 1.1: Characteristics of the Madian HPP (Cascade Study 2006) The Cascade Study outlines that the may be utilised also for peak power generation. In this case the head pond of the project may have a storage capacity of up to m³ Pre-Feasibility Study 2007 In May 2007 Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG of Germany submitted the Pre- Feasibility Report (Phase I of the present Feasibility Study) to the Project Sponsor Madian Hydro Power Ltd. During Phase I of the Feasibility Study, two layout alternatives were identified and studied on comparative basis. The layout alternatives are the result of possible combinations of four identified weir sites and two alternative powerhouse sites. A ranking of the four weir sites was performed from the geological point of view and the most attractive site selected. Thus, the key components of the Madian Hydropower Project are: One optional weir site on the Swat River upstream of Kedam Village with an intake structure on the left river bank. A headrace tunnel from the intake at Kedam Village to the powerhouse at Madian Town. Two alternatives for the powerhouse location on the Swat River upstream of Madian Town. 7166P02/Vol. II, Introduction 1-4

7 The layout concepts of both alternatives are principally the same and include the following plant components: Concrete weir with gated spillway and flushing outlets; Intake structure and 3 desander caverns; Power waterways: headrace tunnel, a surge tank, a pressure shaft and a horizontal high pressure tunnel; Powerhouse and tailrace bay Switchyard The key parameters for both alternatives are given in the table below: Unit PH1 PH2 Height of dam m Length of waterways km 12,0 12,7 Gross head m Design discharge m³/s Installed capacity MW Energy generation GWh/a Table 1.2: Key parameters of Project Alternatives Under consideration of the dynamic production costs (DPC), the internal rate of return (IRR) and the return on equity (ROE) all calculations resulted in the alternative project layout with the upstream located powerhouse (PH1) to be economically more attractive compared to PH2. The social and environmental impact assessment results in a different quality of impact with regard to the optional powerhouse locations. The PH1 powerhouse and the switchyard are located well outside of Madian Town. PH2 is located in the direct vicinity of Madian Town with expanding settlements and cultivated land. Therefore, the impacts of the layout PH2 on settlements and agricultural land have to be rated as major, not only during the construction period but also during the operation of the plant. Under consideration of technical, economical and social and environmental aspects, the alternative PH1 was considered to be the most attractive one. For this reason, the project layout with the powerhouse PH1 has been recommended for detailed investigations during Phase II of the Feasibility Study. 7166P02/Vol. II, Introduction 1-5

8 1.3 Objectives of the Feasibility Study Report During Phase I of the Feasibility Study, layout alternatives of the Madian Hydropower Project were identified and studied on comparative basis. As the result of Phase I: Pre-Feasibility Study a project concept was selected from several alternatives for further studies on feasibility level. At the beginning of Phase II Feasibility Study the Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB) established boundary conditions for the coordinated development of the hydropower projects on Swat River, the Asrit- Kedam and the downstream located (HPP). The selected project concept of the Madian HPP was analyzed and adjusted to these new boundary conditions, in particular as regards the new normal operation water level defined for the Madian weir site. As the consequence a new weir site was defined, the layout adopted, and the geotechnical investigation program adjusted correspondingly. In accordance with the Terms of Reference for this Feasibility Study a feasibility design of the has been developed according to international best practice ensuring a reliable, sustainable and economical design of structures and equipment which complies with the best international hydroelectric engineering practice. The key objectives of the Bankable Feasibility Study are among others: Undertake a bankable feasibility study to international best practice acceptable to the Client and international financial institutions; Work effectively with the Client and the Owner s Engineer; Carry out detailed field investigations including geological mapping, detailed geotechnical field investigations; topographic and hydrological survey and analysis; Review and optimize from a technical and economic basis the project concepts and select a preferred layout for detailed studies; Carry out socio-environmental impact assessment studies; Calculate the total construction costs of the project based on detailed evaluations, designs etc.; Evaluate the financial and economic characteristics of the Project and determine the corresponding tariff including a risk analysis. 7166P02/Vol. II, Introduction 1-6

9 1.4 Structure of the Feasibility Study Report This Feasibility Report consists of the following seven volumes: Volume I: Volume II: Volume III: Volume IV: Volume V: Volume VI: Executive Summary Main Report (this Report) Report on Geology and Geological Field Investigations Hydro-Meteorological Data Base Report on Topographic Survey Environmental Impact Assessment Study and Resettlement Action Plan Volume VII: Drawing Album In the following a description of the structure of this main report is given: Section 1 informs on the Project Sponsor, the contractual framework and brief scope of work of this feasibility study for the Madian Hydropower Project. It summarizes the results of previous studies as regards the development of the hydropower potential in the Swat valley and the project area in particular. Section 2 provides a brief description of the project area, the selected project concept, aspects of potential future operation of the Madian power plant and the salient features of the feasibility design. Section 3 describes the physical conditions for development of the Madian Hydropower Project as regards the hydro-meteorological and sediment data base and its analysis, the topographic boundary conditions and survey activities conducted by the Consultant as well as the analysis of regional geology, tectonics, seismicity and execution of the geotechnical field investigations. The description of physical conditions for the development of the Madian HPP is supplemented by an in-depth analysis of the conditions to access the project site. In this Volume II a summary is presented of the hydrological, topographical and geotechnical studies which are given in full detail in the corresponding volumes (Volume III to V) of this Feasibility Study Report. Section 4 provides detailed information on the selected civil design of the Madian HPP including the hydraulic and civil design criteria, optimization of installed capacity and power waterway dimensions. The section presents the design criteria, methodology applied and the results achieved in the detailed hydraulic and civil design of the Madian HPP and its structural components on feasibility level. 7166P02/Vol. II, Introduction 1-7

10 Section 5 describes the components and design of all major components of the electro-mechanical equipment of the Project, including the installations at the powerhouse with 3 vertical Francis turbine units, as well as the auxiliary Francis turbine installed at the weir site for the release of the minimum ecological flow. Section 6 describes the components and design of all major components of the electrical equipment of the Project, including the installations at the powerhouse with SF6 switchyard, the terminal for interconnection to the public 220 kv network and the equipment to be installed at the desander caverns and weir site. Section 7 describes the components and design of all major components of the hydraulic steel structure equipment of the Project, their key parameters and concept for operation. Section 8 summarizes the results on the simulation of plant operation and the corresponding assessment of the availability of power and energy. The corresponding study is based on simulation of daily run-of river plant operation for a series of hydrological data of 48 years of Swat River flow. Section 9 informs on the elaboration of the unit cost data base of the Project, the compilation of unit rates, estimation of cost of equipment and the elaboration of the cost estimate of the Project on feasibility level. Section 10 provides all relevant information on the Environmental Impact Assessment and the Resettlement Action Plan related to the selected Project concept. The chapter indicates the measures to be taken for a socioeconomic and environmentally acceptable development of the project and assesses the costs related to mitigation measures, acquisition of land and resettlement requirements. Section 11 describes in detail the concept for construction of the Madian Hydropower Project including the corresponding construction program. In addition the steps required between the submission and approval of this Feasibility Study report and the start of construction are summarized and discussed. Section 12 informs on the methodology applied and the results obtained in the economic and financial analysis of the Project and the corresponding tariff required for a viable development of the Project by a joint venture of private Project Sponsors and international financing. Section 13 informs on the Conclusions and Recommendations of the Consultant for a successful development of the Project. 7166P02/Vol. II, Introduction 1-8

11 Annex A-1.1 Proposed Development of the Hydropower Potential of Swat Valley by a Cascade of Hydropower Plants (MIRZA, 2005) 7166P02/Vol. II, Introduction A-1-1