RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE SURVEY

Transcription

1 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE SURVEY Even residential property sales tend to decreased, Residential Property Price Index increase in quarter II-2012 and was predicted to continue in next quarter in a lower trend Quarter II Residential Property Price Index indicated that the price in quarter II-2012 edged up both in quarterly (1,17%, qtq) and annually (3,68% yoy). Pressure in residential property prices was predicted to continue in next quarter (quarter III-2012) in a lower pace. Most of respondents (35,41%) revealed that increasing prices of building materials was attributable as the main cause to the mounting residential property price. Survey noted that the highest price increase occurred in the medium type of building (1,38%,qtq). Meanwhile on the regional basis, among the 14 regions being surveyed, Palembang led the price increase by 1,90% (qtq). Residential property sales in quarter II-2012 decreased by -4,55% mainly in medium type of building (-18,25%). Respondents remain considered that higher price of building materials, high interest rates of house ownership loans, down payment, a tangle of red tape bureaucracy, and higher tax rates have been hampering the outgrowth of residential property business. Respondents also conveyed that Internal funds mainly come from retained earning (40,72%), remained to be the primary source of their residential property project financing. Whereas in purchasing the house, most of consumers still used house ownership loans facilities (82,09%) with interest rate of 9% to 12%. Residential property prices in quarter II-2012 increased in quarterly and annual basis. Residential Property Price Development Residential Property Prices in quarter II-2012 accelerated for all types of buildings. Residential Property Price Survey in 14 cities noted that residential property price index in quarter II-2012 stayed at 146,43, moved 1,17% (qtq), higher than previous increase (0,82%, qtq). Most of respondents (35,41%) revealed that the acceleration in the residential property prices was attributable by the rising of construction materials price 1, higher of worker s salaries (19,56%), as well as permit fee (16,44%). Methodology Residential Property Price Survey is the quarterly survey which collected from 1999 based on development project from 12 cities, i.e. Medan Padang, Palembang, Bandar Lampung, Bandung, Semarang, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Denpasar, Banjarmasin, Manado, and Makassar. At the first quarter 2002, coverage area of survey becomes 13 cities including Jabotabek (Jakarta, Bogor, Tangerang, and Bekasi) area. And at the first quarter 2004, coverage became 14 cities including Pontianak. Since 2007 the coverage survey area has been extended including Banten area (Serang and Cilegon). This survey covered 45 main developers in Jabodebek-Banten, and about 215 developers in 13 Bank Indonesia Regional Offices. Data collected directly from developer covered price and total sales in the recent quarter and prediction for the next quarter. Data processed by type of building, which are small type ( 36m2), medium type (>36 and 70m2), and large type (>70m2). Composite Index is developed by simple average chain Index weighted by the city weight resulted from Cost Living Survey 2007 by BPS. Real Sector Statistics Division 1 1 BI Survey showed an increased for some materials in quarter II-2012 by 2,0% (qtq). 1

2 Residential Property Price Survey Residential property price increases occurred in medium type of building (qtq) and small type of building (yoy). Pressure on residential property prices in the quarter III-2012 was predicted to run by slow degree. In Quarterly (qtq) basis, the highest price increase was at medium type of building. Compared with previous period, the survey recorded that all types of buildings experienced price hike with the highest at medium type of building (1,38%, qtq). By the city surveyed, Palembang led the increase by 1,90%, especially at medium type of building (2,78%). Rising rates also occurred in Manado area, with the small type of building led the increase (3,71%). Residential property prices also moved higher from the same period at the previous year. Residential property price index mounted 3,68%, higher than the price increase over the same period in previous year (3,59%). Describe by the type of building, price escalated in all types of buildings, with the small type of building led the growth by 4,16%. Observed by region, the highest price increase occurred in Medan (5,49%), mainly on large type of building (7,61%). In Manado, residential property prices increased by 4,68%, higher than the same period in previous year (3,95%), with the small type of building led the growth by 8,28%. Mild pressure on residential property price was predicted to continue in quarter III In quarterly basis (qtq), pressure on residential property price is predicted to a slower growth by 0,53%, with the highest price increase in small type of the house (0,57%), while in regional basis price hike most in Bandar Lampung (3,74%). Graph 1 Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) (Indeks) (%) RPPI % Changes (qtq) % Changes (yoy) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III* 10,0 8,5 7,0 5,5 4,0 2,5 1,0 0,5 2,0 3,5 5, * Projection Real Sector Statistics Division 2 2

3 Residential Property Price Survey Graph 2 Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) For Small Type of Building (Indeks) (%) RPPI of Small Type % Changes (qtq) % Changes (yoy) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III* 10,5 9,0 7,5 6,0 4,5 3,0 1,5 0,0 1,5 3, * Projection Graph 3 Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) For Medium Type of Building (Indeks) (%) RPPI of Medium Type % Changes (qtq) % Changes (yoy) 8,0 7,0 6, ,0 4, , ,0 1, ,0 1,0 120 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III* 2, * Projection Graph 4 Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) For Large Type of Building (Indeks) (%) RPPI of Large Type % Changes (qtq) % Changes (yoy) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III* 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 1,0 2, * Projection Real Sector Statistics Division 3 3

4 Residential Property Price Survey RPPI grew in the same direction with housing group category of CPI. In Annual basis (yoy), residential property prices in quarter III-2012 were estimated to increase in a higher growth compared to previous quarter in the amount of 3,73%. In regional basis, accelerating price was predicted in Bandar Lampung (5,49%) and Palembang (5,01%). In Comparison with the housing group index in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for quarter II-2012, residential property price appeared to move in the same direction. Housing group price index along quarter II-2012 (Juni 2012) grew 0,95%. Therewith, Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) also moved by 1,17% (qtq). (%) 4,0 Graph 5 Changes in RPPI and CPI Housing Group 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0 RPPI Changes Changes in CPI Housing I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III* * Projection Residential Property sales decrease in all type of building, mainly in medium type. Residential Property Sales Residential property sales in quarter II-2012 decreased. This period of survey noted that performance of sales decreased by -4,55% (qtq) mainly in medium type of building (-18,25%,qtq). Seasonal factors (new academic years, fasting month of Ramadhan, and Idul Fitri festivities) had affected consumers behaviour in purchasing a house besides the increase of house s price due to soaring in price building materials. Bank Indonesia s new regulation to implement 30% down payment for housing loan with the total area more than 70 m2 also affected consumers ability in buying property. By the city surveyed, the lowest sales on medium type of house occured in Palembang and Bandar Lampung. Real Sector Statistics Division 4 4

5 Residential Property Price Survey Graph 6. Sales (%) Quarter II-2012 by Region Large Medium Small 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Medan Padang Palembang Bd. Lampung Jabodebek-Banten Bandung Semarang DIY Surabaya Denpasar Pontianak Banjarmasin Makassar Manado Residential Properties Supply and Demand Quarter II-2012 Residential property demand and supply in quarter II-2012 tend to stable. Residential property demand and supply in quarter II-2012 in 14 large cities tend to stable for all type of building. Most respondents stated that compared to previous period, demand and supply for residential property in 14 cities for all types of building tend to stable. Respondents also expect that demand and supply for all type of building will be stable in quarter III Meanwhile, respondents stated that higher price of building materials (21,48%), high interest rates of house ownership loan facilities (19,40%), down payment (15,70%), a tangle of red tape bureaucracy (14,09%), and higher tax rate (13,28%) were still recognized as the obstacle factors in doing residential property activity. By Project location, the highest rate for housing ownership credit occured in Sulawesi Barat (13,75%), while the lowest rate in East Java (10,34%). Real Sector Statistics Division 5 5

6 Residential Property Price Survey Graph 7. Interest Rate for Housing Ownership Credits by Project Location Sulbar Maluku Utara Bengkulu Kalteng Papua Jambi Sumsel DIY Maluku Irian Jaya Barat Jawa Barat Sumut Kepulauan Riau Kaltim Sulut NAD Jatim 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 Residential Property Financing Developers mostly use internal funds, while consumer preferred to use house ownership loans for financing. Internal Funds were the main source in financing the residential property development, while consumers still prefered to use house ownership loans facilities (KPR) in buying a new house. Most of respondents (54,82%) conveyed that their financing needs were obtained from their internal funds. Based on the composition, internal funds primarily from retained earning (40,72%), paid-in capital (39,10%), and joint ventures (16,27%). Graph 8. Residential Property Financing Banking Loan 31,04% Internal Fund 54,82% Retained Earning 22,32% Paid-In-Capital 21,44% Consumers Advance Non Banking Others Payment Institution Loans 1,95% 10,68% 1,52% Others 2,14% Joint Venture/ Konsorsium 8,92% Real Sector Statistics Division 6 6

7 However, consumers mostly preferred to choose housing loan facilities (KPR) in buying their home. Most respondents (82,09%) use the loan facilities in buying residential property and it increased when compared with the previous quarter (78,33%), while 0,88% of them used Housing Financing Liquidity Facility (FLPP). The utilization of FLPP by low income segments was quite slow. There were only 5,62% disbursement from Rp7,10 billion total funds targeted in Thus, 94,38% of funds were still underutilized. Residential building with a minimum size of 36 m2 as in the provisions of article 22 paragraph (3) of Perkim Act had affected on the house s procurements, because developers had to adjust their previous site plan. Lack of socialization before and during FLPP program is another factor that led to the slow realization of FLPP besides 10% income tax for small house. Graph 9. Consumer Financing Graph 10. FLPP Share of Financing Loan Cash Installments 11,91% Cash 6,00% Loan Financing FLPP 0,76% 1,09% Q I 2012 Loan Facilities 82,09% 98,91% 99,24% Q II 2012 Graph 11. Interest Rate of Housing Loan Facilities by Group of Bank 14,00 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 State Banks Private National Banks Foreign Banks and Joint Banks Regional Government Bank The simplicity in access accompanied with the lower rate of Housing Financing Liquidity Facility (FLPP) attracted majority consumers to use the loan facilities in buying their home, particularly in the small house type (86,42%), with the interest rates in the range of 9% to 12%. In addition to use of KPR, the survey results show that as many as 11,91% of respondents use cash installment facilities, and only a few respondent (6,00%) used hard cash payments method. Real Sector Statistics Division 7 7

8 Table 1 Residential Property Price Index Quarter II-2012 Quarterly Changes (qtq) Annual Changes (yoy) NO CITY Building Type Building Type Small Medium Large All Small Medium Large All 1 BANDUNG BANDAR LAMPUNG BANJARMASIN DENPASAR PALEMBANG SEMARANG YOGYAKARTA PADANG MEDAN MAKASSAR MANADO SURABAYA PONTIANAK JABODEBEK-BANTEN All Cities Table 2 Expectation Residential Property Price Index Quarter III-2012 Quarterly Changes (qtq) Annual Changes (yoy) NO CITY Building Type Building Type Small Medium Large All Small Medium Large All 1 BANDUNG BANDAR LAMPUNG BANJARMASIN DENPASAR PALEMBANG SEMARANG YOGYAKARTA PADANG MEDAN MAKASSAR MANADO SURABAYA PONTIANAK JABODEBEK-BANTEN All Cities Real Sector Statistics Division 8 8

9 (Base Year 2002 = 100) No. CITY TYPE OF BUILDING Table 3 Residential Property Price Index By Regions RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDEX QUARTERLY CHANGES (qtq) ANNUAL CHANGES (yoy) Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III ** Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III** Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III* 1 BANDUNG SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL BANDAR LAMPUNG SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL BANJARMASIN SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL DENPASAR SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL PALEMBANG SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL SEMARANG SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL YOGYAKARTA SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL PADANG SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL MEDAN SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL MAKASSAR SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL MANADO SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL SURABAYA SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL PONTIANAK SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL JABODEBEK-BANTEN SMALL MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL COMPOSITE 14 CITY SMALL (Included Jabodebek - Banten) MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL COMPOSITE 13 KOTA SMALL (Excluded Jabodebek-Banten) MEDIUM LARGE TOTAL *) Since 2009-Q1, the composite index calculated by weighted index using the city weight resulted from The Cost Living Survey 2007 by BPS. We do backcasting to the calculation of the composite index since 2002-Q1. Real Sector Statistics Division 9 9

10 Tabel 4 Outstanding of Housing Financing Liquidity Facility (FLPP) Jan-Jun 2012 PROVINCE/REGENCY/MUNICIPAl UNIT VALUE (Rp) Bali 35 1,093,904,000 Bangka Belitung 90 2,498,571,500 Banten 1,063 32,938,342,550 Bengkulu 103 3,023,383,300 DIY ,874,689 DKI Jakarta 57 2,184,179,730 Gorontalo ,482,200 Jambi 178 4,928,163,300 Jawa Barat 3, ,495,873,774 Jawa Tengah ,924,051,784 Jawa Timur 1,273 39,084,115,053 Kalimantan Barat 266 6,593,674,311 Kalimantan Selatan 1,729 51,540,231,600 Kalimantan Tengah 154 5,768,881,650 Kalimantan Timur 77 2,908,109,200 Kep. Riau ,357,022,990 Lampung 251 7,759,944,300 Maluku ,500,000 Maluku Utara 6 171,000,000 NAD 32 1,175,210,000 NTB 3 95,045,900 NTT 2 53,121,600 Papua 59 1,711,902,000 Riau ,273,592,650 Sulawesi Barat ,500,000 Sulawesi Selatan 216 7,363,214,800 Sulawesi Tengah 89 2,397,059,700 Sulawesi Tenggara ,937,201 Kendari ,937,201 SULAWESI UTARA 5 146,141,494 Sumatera Barat 170 4,876,766,000 Sumatera Selatan ,727,348,100 Sumatera Utara ,845,496,750 Yogyakarta ,500,000 TOTAL 12, ,946,142,125 Source:Ministry of Public Housing Real Sector Statistics Division 10 10