Expansion of the Panama Canal: Economic Impact to Georgia Counties

Transcription

1 Expansion of the Panama Canal: Economic Impact to Georgia Counties Atlanta Regional Commission Catherine L. Ross, Harry West Professor City and Regional Planning / Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology

2 National Freight Policy Freight tonnage anticipated to increase by 23% in the next ten years Emphasis in MAP-21 Plan development System/network designation Performance measures/freight Condition Panamax National Freight Network Overarching issues Inter- and Intra-regional mobility Infrastructure needs Funding shortfalls Impacts of changing economic structure Source: GDOT Georgia s Statewide Designated Freight Corridors

3 Peer Exchange Date: November 6-7, 2013 Participants 6 MPOs 4 State DOTs 2 Private Companies 3 Research Centers Mayors and Local Reps FHWA, FTA, and Volpe Center Airport and Seaport Directors Intergovernmental Organizations Georgia Economic Development

4 Freight Movement, Port Facilities, and Economic Competitiveness

5 Three Primary Questions How much will the demand for cargo throughput increase at selected ports due to economic growth and the Panama Canal expansion? On what roads may level of service degrade as a result of an increase port-related truck based freight movement? What is the potential economic benefit to each of the 159 Georgia counties from the Panama Canal expansion?

6 U.S. Megaregions and Freight

7 Source: Ross, Catherine. Megaregions and Transportation Planning, Federal Highway Administration, 2009

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9 Expanded Panama Canal Sources: Foltz, Connected Places: Freight Movement and Mega-Regions

10 Methodology of Estimating the Economic Impact Step 1: Extracting the Dollar Value of Commodities Demanded by Georgia Counties from IMPLAN Models Step 2: Matching the IMPLAN Commodity Code with the Threedigit NAICS Code Step 3: Matching the Commodities Tonnage with Dollar Values Step 4: Estimating the Dollar Value of Commodities Going into the Georgia Counties from the Port of Savannah for Different Scenarios Step 5: Estimating the Economic Impact of Increased Commodities Going into the Georgia Counties due to the Panama Expansion

11 Port of Savannah s Economic Impact Overall In Georgia Alone 352,146 full-and part-time jobs $66.9 billion in sales (9.5% total sales) $32.4 billion in state GDP (7.8% total GDP) $18.5 billion in income (5.2% of total personal income) Sources: Foltz, Connected Places: Freight Movement and Mega-Regions

12 Port of Savannah s Economic Impact County Economic Impact of Employment Employment growth is centralized in the counties that surround the Port and metro Atlanta The most impacted industry sectors are Publishing, Textile, Miscellaneous Related, in terms of Growth in Employment Top 10 Industry Sectors Impacted by Employment Rank Description Base Growth of Growth of Growth of Growth of 2013 Scenario1 Scenario2 Scenario3 Scenario4 1 Publishing industries 5,290 1,348 3,674 5,999 9,100 2 Textile Products 4,818 1,228 3,346 5,464 8,289 3 Miscellaneous mfg 4,241 1,080 2,945 4,809 7,295 4 Ag & Forestry Svcs 3, ,368 3,867 5,866 5 Crop Farming 3, ,136 3,488 5,292 6 Transportation eqpmt 2, ,721 2,810 4,262 7 Livestock 2, ,591 2,598 3,941 8 Furniture & related prod 2, ,549 2,529 3,836 9 Food products 2, ,423 2,324 3, Computer & oth electron 1, ,297 2,118 3,212

13 Port of Savannah s Economic Impact County Economic Impact of Employment The Panama Canal expansion is expected to add any new jobs to Georgia related to Panama Canal expansion. Scenario Growth in Georgia Employment by 2040 Baseline 9,823 Low impact 26,777 Moderate impact 43,725 High impact 66,328

14 Port of Savannah s Economic Impact County Economic Impact of Output and Value Added Within Georgia, the greatest economic benefits are around metro Atlanta and Savannah Counties projected to experience an impact over $1 billion by 2040 due to Panama Canal expansion. Scenario Number of Counties Experiencing over $1B Growth Baseline 6 Low impact 7 Moderate impact 9 High impact 10

15 Port of Savannah s Economic Impact County Economic Impact of Output and Value Added

16 Increasing Congestion on New and Emerging Freight Corridors

17 Impact of Commodity Movement on the Major Truck Corridors in Georgia Impact of Commodity Movement on the Major Truck Corridors in Georgia Georgia s Four Largest Truck Corridors Cover 54 Counties in a Variety of Urban and Rural Areas. The Counties Together Are Likely to Experience between a $23 Billion and $49 Billion Annual Economic Stimulus by 2040 Due to Canal- Related Activities.

18 Megaregion Advantages Manage Interstate Corridor Congestion Peak-Period, Forecasted 2040 Congestion Sources: Atlanta Regional Commission, Overview from Piedmont Atlantic Megaregion (PAM) Peer MPOs Freight Analysis Framework, version 3

19 Major Findings of Economic Impact

20 Major Findings of Economic Impact Finding 1: Primary benefactors are counties surrounding the Port of Savannah and major population centers The canal expansion will have a major impact on metro Atlanta counties: $9.8 billion in Fulton $8.6 billion in Gwinnett $2.3 billion in Cobb $2.2 billion in DeKalb Smaller cities will also benefit from increased freight activity. Finding 2: Panama Canal expansion will potentially have an economic impact of over $35 billion by 2040 in Georgia. Without the expansion: $26 billion by With the expansion: $36 billion ~ $57 billion.