The future community changes and benefits of driverless cars

Transcription

1 The future community changes and benefits of driverless cars International Driverless Cars Conference, Adelaide, November 2015 Andrew Somers

2 Driverless cars are not the first disruptive technology It is reputed that In 1779 Ned Ludd smashed two stocking frames, new weaving machines that imitated that actions of human weavers From , the Luddites ran an active campaign of sabotaging weaving mills At one time, there were more British troops fighting Luddites than Napoleon but the weaving mills carried on and the industrial revolution changed the world 2

3 Driverless cars are not the only disruptive technology Image source Automated Working with universities including Michigan Connected Demonstrated Internet of Things with IBM 3

4 Luddites, people with a fair point, or both? Image source: 4

5 Transport has not been seriously disrupted for some time Since 1978, transport demand shares in Australia have been relatively stable Post WW2 car boom Stability Image source: BITRE Report 129,

6 Enough about disruption What are some benefits of driverless cars? Opportunity for major improvement in road safety New mobility options may serve people better Less time concentrating on driving, more time for other things Less space for parking will help liveable cities How will it change the community? Transport is a big part of our lives and our economy New industries develop, others fade 6

7 Enough about disruption What are some benefits of driverless cars? Opportunity for major improvement in road safety New mobility options may serve people better Less time concentrating on driving, more time for other things Less space for parking will help liveable cities How will it change the community? Transport is a big part of our lives and our economy New industries develop, others fade 7

8 Road safety The opportunity is immense Each year nearly 1.3 million people die as a result of a road traffic collision and more than half of these people are not travelling in a car (Global Plan for the Decade of Action in Road Safety , UN World Health Organisation) A major reduction in crashes from vehicle automation is realistic but questions exist as to how to manage the transition phase ( 8

9 New mobility options Active transport Private transport Personal demand-responsive transport (AutoVot) Shared demand-responsive transport (TaxiBot) Shared mass transport 9

10 New mobility options Active transport Private transport Personal demand-responsive transport (AutoVot) Shared demand-responsive transport (TaxiBot) Shared mass transport 10

11 Demand for new mobility options Less young adults are getting their driver s licence (RACV, 2015, Young adults licencing trends and travel modes) 11

12 Demand for new mobility options but this is only part of the story (RACV, 2015, Young adults licencing trends and travel modes) 12

13 Remember to look beyond the headlines TaxiBots: Self-driving cars could cut city traffic by 90% In reality, the ITF study found that a comprehensive adoption of TaxiBots (shared demand-responsive transport) would: Reduce fleet size by 90% but increase VKT by 6-22% due to transfers from buses, pick-ups, drop-offs and re-positioning If instead used AutoVots (personal transport), then increase VKT by 44-89% With a mixed fleet (50% private transport), increase VKT by 30-90% 13

14 When might this happen? 5-10 years ( ) Early days for self-driving years ( ) Transition 20+ years (2035+) Mobility transformed Continued growth in lower level automation Self-driving limited to low complexity environments First driverless vehicles may become commercially available, but are expensive Less restriction on selfdriving environments Increasingly common use of limited self-driving vehicles Driverless vehicles become more common and more affordable Large, connected AV networks allow multiple mobility scenarios On demand mobility and fleet services 14

15 New industries grow, others fade Car insurance product liability Volvo will accept full liability whenever one if its cars is in autonomous mode Mercedes and Google made similar statements, less formally ( Car manufacturer ongoing mobility provider Ford Smart Mobility includes 25 experiments and challenges; mobility on demand, car sharing, rapid EV charging, big data and apps Agile companies are starting to prepare for these changes 15

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