Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by. on the Metronews Radio Network

Transcription

1 Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio Network

2 The Changing Face of West tvirginia i i Politics Dems control both WV chambers since election WV one of 42 states for FDR Dems Rule! , 129 of 139 terms for statewide office won by Dems Exceptions: Arch Moore, Cecil Underwood, Cleve Benedict. WV is Big Blue

3 2000 Election George Bush Al Gore

4 President Herbert Hoover The last time a non incumbent Republican carried WV in a Presidential Race before 2000 was 1928.

5 Buck Harless and George Bush The Southern West Virginia industrialist decides he wants to help Bush try to win the election.

6 Buck s a Pioneer 1996 WV raises $22,000 for Bob Dole 2000 Harless pledges to raise $100, Bush people set his goal at $35,000 Harless raises $275,000 Well Well, what do you know? Bush starts paying attention to WV

7 NRA President Charleton Heston It gave those ol boys chills. State Senator Shirley Love

8 Bush Wins WV Bush wins Raleigh by 1,500 votes UMWA: Stay home. Bush loses southern WV 2 1 instead of 3 1 or 4 1 Bush carries WV 52 46, by 40,000 votes Bush gets WV 5 electoral lvotes

9 Hanging chads Florida vote controversy leaves 2000 election undecided

10 WV decides the election 270 electoral votes needed to win Bush 271 w/wv and Florida. Gore 267 If Gore had carried WV with its 5 electoral votes he would have 272 without Florida The GOP nominee for President has carried WV in each of elections since 2000

11 Robert C. Byrd Live boy, dead woman Top of the ticket leader with down ballot strength June 28, 2010 Democratic bench weakness

12 Party registration shifts % of WV voters registered Democratic % of WV voters registered Democratic % of WV voters registered Democratic % 9 of WV Voters registered Democratic GOP Chair Conrad Lucas: This is a really historic day for our state and our party % of WV Voters registered Democratic

13 WV Voter Registration Trends 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Dem Repub Indep 10% 0%

14 But wait a minute Dems hold 577,000 to 379,000 advantage Dem majority in 43 of 55 counties GOP % registration has stayed the same, just below 30% ,000 independent voters Today 257,576 independent voters, 21% Why pick a party?

15 Epic 2012 Primary showdown

16 Obama wins Primary, but 2012 Primary Election: Obama 106,000 and Keith Judd with 72,000 I voted against Obama, said electrician Ronnie Brown Obama lost to Clinton by 41 points in 2008 Primary

17 National Dem leftward lean EPA rules and mine permit rules damage coal industry UMWA President Cecil Roberts: National Democratic Party has forgotten about men and women who take a shower at the end of the workday. Obamacare unpopular in WV

18 WV Dems as Sisyphus in 2014

19 WV 1 st Congressional District David McKinley 64% Glen Gainer 36%

20 WV 2 nd Congressional District Alex Mooney 47% Nick Casey 44%

21 WV 3 rd Congressional District Evan Jenkins 55% Nick Rahall 45%

22 U.S. Senate Shelley Moore Capito 62% Natalie Tennant 35%

23 WV Legislature flips House: GOP picks up 17 seats to Senate: to Dem. Sen. Daniel Hall switches parties, giving Dems advantage in Senate. Bill C l l t d S t P id t Ti Bill Cole elected Senate President, Tim Armstead elected House Speaker

24 The 15 Year Transition GOP Presidential nominee carries WV GOP holds all three Congressional seats GOP has first U.S. Senator since 1958 GOP controls both House and Senate for first time since 1930 Losses L put Dems on their hi heals

25 2012 Election Results Many experts say West Virginia s transition was one of the last in a series of southern states going red.

26 Is West Virginia Really Red? 2016 should tell us because Presidential election All three Congressional seats are up All House of Delegates seats, half the Senate Governor Treasurer, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor Local races

27 Ji J i Bill C l Jim Justice vs. Bill Cole Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll (May) Justice 52% Cole 34%

28 Preference for WV Legislative Control Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll Not Sure, 18% Democrat, at,38% Republican, 44%

29 Senator Joe Manchin 47% Approve 37% Disapprove 16%% Not Sure Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll

30 Senator Shelley Moore Capito 53% Approve 26% disapprove 21% not Sure Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll

31 Governor Earl Ray Tomblin 47% Approve 32% Disapprove 21% Not Sure Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll

32 President Barack Obama 24% Approve 71% Disapprove 5% Not Sure Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll

33 Right Track or Wrong Track?

34 Metronews West Virginia Poll by Repass Research 28% WV headed in right direction 56% WV headed in wrong direction 15% Not sure Btt Better if WV has GOP or Dem as next Gov? 34% Democrat 37% Republican 29% Not Sure

35 What does it all mean? Blue to red Leftward lean by national Dems hurts WV Dems Dems need to regain momentum Republicans on short leash Past not prologue

36 Tight budget times in WV Gov. Tomblin: This was one of the most challenging budget years I ve Ive dealt with in my 42 years of public service.

37 Tobacco Tax Increase (1 st plan) Proposal to raise cigarette tax by 45 cents up to $1 per pack. Fails in the House All but one of 36 House Democrats vote against the bill Only 44 of the 64 House Republicans vote for the bill

38 Tobacco Tax Increase (2 nd plan) Proposal to raise cigarette tax by 65 cents to $1.20 per pack Passes the House of 36 Democrats vote for the bill 42 of 64 Republicans vote for the bill Two month regular session and 17 day special session to pass tobacco tax increase

39 Tax/fee increase difficulty 27% of West Virginians smoke Let s say 40% of them vote 120,000 West Virginians directly affected by the cigarette tax are actual voters out of 1.2 million registered voters Great difficulty passing a tax increase even though i it s on an unpopular activity ii affecting a small percentage of voters

40 Everybody s Driving 1.33 million private and commercial vehicles registered in WV. (Source: FHA) More M vehicles than there are registered voters. If 40% of vehicle owners vote that s 520,000 voters Gov race Tomblin beat Maloney by 335,000 to 303,000. Politicians are super sensitive to any vehiclerelated tax/fee increase.

41 Gas price obsession Do you know any product where the average price is $30 40 where we compare prices to the tenth of a cent?

42 Benefits Received Principle As much as possible, the taxpayer s burden should reflect the benefit received from the Government. Source: Governor s Commission on Fair Taxation report. December 1999.

43 Increasing taxes or fees for anything You see: Just 80 cents a day buys They see: My taxes are going up

44 House of Delegates GOP 64 seat majority is splintered. Social issues, Common Core, Religious Freedom Restoration Act, raw milk. A large chunk fundamentally opposed to ANY higher taxes or fees. Liberty Caucus influence. House Whip John O Neal voted against leadership on 45 cent cigarette tax increase.

45 Yogi Berra When you come to a fork in the road, take it.

46 Who will be in charge? Governor Bill Cole? Governor Jim Justice?

47 Support or Oppose Increase in motor vehicle sales tax 5% to 6%. Increase DMV fees. Maintaining tolls on turnpike. Building new state toll roads. Increase in state gasoline tax. Statewide road bond issue. Empowering counties to raise taxes for roads. Restructuring WVDOT for efficiencies.

48 Restructure West Virginia Government That s the way we ve always done it. Status quo is Latin for The mess we re in. Ronald Reagan. What government must do, what government wants to do. (infrastructure, education, protect the public) Decentralize authority. Measure performance by outcomes, not inputs and outputs. Strive S i for market based solutions, not bureaucratic solutions. With declining revenue and rising costs, government has to be more efficient.

49 Convergence of Forces Political Economic

50 Politics is the process by which power is distributed and decisions are made.

51 Questions? Thanks to the Contractors Association of West Virginia and Mike Clowser.