AMP (CSE) POTASH MARKET FUNDAMENTALS. Aug 2014

Transcription

1 POTASH MARKET FUNDAMENTALS 1 Aug 2014

2 2 Potash Refers to a group of water soluble potassium bearing minerals; the most common being potassium chloride (KCl) or Sylvite Found in limited settings around the world, but often occurs in large deposits Primarily used as a fertilizer Organic vegetation requires three fundamental macro-nutrients to grow: Nitrogen (N), Phosphorous (P) and Potassium (K in the form of Potash) The application of Potash on crops improves water retention, drought resistance, photosynthesis, appearance, texture, taste, disease resistance, yields and shelf life. Photo: Sylvite - Smithsonian Natural History Museum Washington, DC Sylvite (KCl) Renowned Paradox Basin

3 Beneficial Impact of Potash Application on Crops and Crop Yield -K +K a.) Corn +K -K b.) Soybean Crop c.) Potato Source: International Potash Institute ( IPI ) regional coordination units; a.) IPI-SFI project in Jianjiang County, Chengdu, China, 2001; b.) IPI-EMBRAPA project in Montividiu, Goias, Brazil, 2007; and c.) IPI-PRII-CRRI project, Jalandhar, Punjab, India, 1997 Potassium assists the uptake of both Nitrogen and Phosphorous into the plant, thereby compounding benefit Resulting in Potash s contribution greater than the sum of its parts. N P K = = 4 2

4 4 Impact of Reduction in Potash Application on Crop Yield Reduced Potash application results in dramatic crop loss Current global reductions cannot be sustained and must be replenished Today s reductions trigger greater future demand Baseline potash application of approximately 80 kg/ha of K 2 O in 5 years prior to trial Sources: International Plant Nutrition Institute ( IPNI ); Borkert, C.M., et al. 2005, Potash in Soybean Crop. In: Potassium in Brazilian agriculture, eds. T. Yamada and T.L. Roberts, Piracicaba, Brazil: Potafos. (In Portuguese)

5 5 Major Stress Factors on Food Sources Global Population Growth Declining Arable Land Per Mouth-to-Feed Suitable agricultural land per capita has decreased by nearly 40% in the last 40 yrs. These factors combined place a greater and greater demand and reliance on fertilizer application Sources: World Bank, FAO, United Nations - Department of Economic and Social Affairs - Population Division (2011)

6 Farmer Economic Health Co-Dependence with Fertilizer Usage Higher crop prices and yields have resulted in healthy cash receipts In turn reducing farmer debt to equity ratio and increasing financial flexibility to invest in greater fertilizer usage Continued and increased use of fertilizers are a decidedly beneficial and attractive investment Which in turn promotes increased application of fertilizers Sources: USDA, Deere & Company, Raymond James

7 7 Under-Utilization of Potash - Effect by Region Crop yields in China, Brazil and India are comparable to levels U.S. farmers employed >40 years ago Reflects vastly sub-optimal application of Potash on crops The inevitable and persistent future escalation of Demand For Food will compel these regions to apply more Potash to increase crop yields This represents a significant opportunity and robust outlook for future Potash markets Sources: USDA, FAO, Raymond James

8 8 Major Stress Factors on Food Sources Drought (2012) Drought conditions of moderate severity or worse exists in 53.2% of the United States, Kelly Helm Smith, of the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Neb., states. Drought affected 78 per cent of the U.S. corn crop, the world s largest, and, on July 11, 2012 prompted the Agriculture Department to cut the year s estimated harvest by 12 per cent sending prices of both crops soaring. 1 Bigger Profits Reduced crop yield promotes higher prices Farmers will aim to capitalize by maximizing their yield through increased application of fertilizer 1. Brian K. Sullivan, The Washington Post, July 19, 2012

9 9 Historic and Forecast Global Potash Consumption Long term historic potash consumption rates ~3.4% CAGR delayed consumption indicates significant pent up demand Substantial rebound anticipated in 2014 Graph: Global Muriate of Potash (MOP) consumption Sources: IFA, Potash Corp., Magna Resources Macroeconomic factors support robust future demand growth

10 10 Historic Potash Prices Underlying robust macroeconomic factors provide strong case for elevated Potash prices in the future Lowest Price Line in last 6 years And significant opportunities for worthy projects. Source: World Bank, Index Mundi

11 11 Potash Application and Industry A Healthy Future Marked improvement on crops and crop yield Dramatic negative impact if reduced; inelastic and vital Financial rewards to farmers that endorse crop yield optimization Greater reliance with distinct benefits arising from major stress factors Significant growth potential from under-utilization gap in developing regions Supports Underlying Robust Demand Growth and Pricing

12 Forward Looking Statements AMP (CSE) 12 This presentation contains certain forwardlooking statements that may involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual events or results could differ materially from American Potash s (the Company ) expectations and projections. Except for statements of historical fact relating to the Company, certain information contained herein constitutes "forward- looking statements". Forward-looking statements are frequently characterized by words such as "plan", "expect", "project", "intend", "believe", "anticipate" and other similar words, or statements that certain events or conditions "may" or "will" occur. Forward- looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management at the date the statements are made, and are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. These factors include the inherent risks involved in the exploration and development of mineral properties, the uncertainties involved in interpreting drilling results and other geological data, fluctuating prices, the possibility of project cost overruns or unanticipated costs and expenses, uncertainties relating to the availability and costs of financing needed in the future and other factors. Circumstances or management's estimates or opinions could change. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. It should be noted that Exploration Targets are conceptual in nature and there has been insufficient exploration to define them as Mineral Resources, and, while reasonable potential may exist, it is uncertain whether further exploration will result in the determination of a Mineral Resource under NI The Exploration Target stated in the Agapito Report is not being reported as part of any Mineral Resource or Mineral Reserve.